The Christian Democratic Gamble in Italy
SENIGALLIA, SILVIO F.
ONE MORE DELAY The Christian Democratic Gamble in Italy bys vo f senigallia Rome As this is being written, Italy is still in the throes of a destructive crisis that began in late January, when...
...During the past two years, in fact, no legislation has been brought to the floor of either branch of Parliament without a previous DC-PCI accord...
...At that point, albeit reluctantly, the Christian Democrats could decide to yield to the pressure coming from what is presumed to be approximately 50 per cent of the electorate (Communists, Socialists, Republicans, and Radicals), and accept the formation of a national emergency coalition...
...Admittedly, a political showdown in that period could be a truly dangerous development...
...Thus Italians are being told that the DC stand on the PCI is a question of old-fashioned "confrontation": DC is the majority, PCI is the opposition, and never the twain shall meet...
...Its main advantage will be to guarantee the survival of the government until the second half of 1978, the so-called "white semester" immediately preceding the end of the President of the Republic's seven-year term, when the Parliament cannot be dissolved...
...By July 1977 this relationship, based on ambiguity and discretion, was going along so well that a joint program was drafted...
...Hence the DC has had to deal over and under the counter with the Communists to get direct, or least indirect, support...
...After the last elections in 1976, for example, an uneasy truce was reached that had an all-DC minority government being kept alive by the PCI's abstention from no-confidence votes in Parliament...
...The old system of alliances that allowed the DC to run Italy with the aid of the centrist parties between 1947-76 is dead and no resurrection is possible...
...In other words, despite the new optimism here, the expected resolution of the current impasse will almost surely be a temporary measure delaying the tackling of the basic issue...
...In rut i u.in of this situation, it is not surprising thai the Christian Democrats are now groping for an ambiguous formulation to hide the truth that Communist voles are an absolute must in Parliament, and that the DC is bidding for them...
...Sooner or later, though, the issue of direct Communist participation will have to be squarely faced...
...First, the Communists and Socialists have agreed to participate in another round of talks with Christian Democratic representatives, and have reacted favorably to Andreotti's proposal of dealing with the question of who will participate in the Cabinet by replacing professional politicians with technocrats...
...But it is precisely this distinction the DC is anxious to retain—PCI in the program existence make deals with the PCI im-pertive for suvival...
...Many people here and abroad do not understand the position of the Christian Democrats, who need and asked for Communist legislative support, and have already accepted a PCI say in domestic affairs...
...Left, which has been accusing the PCI of belonging to the Establishment...
...Whatever the rationale, the fact is that the PCI came out with a request for the formation of an emergency coalition that would include it...
...II it is to prevail, nothing short of a carefully planned, sophisticated, all-out anti-Communist campaign will do...
...This sudden decision was provoked by one or two or all of the following factors: a) the fear of being outflanked by the violently agressive extreme Silvio F. Senigallia reports regularly for The New Leader from Rome...
...Yet the pessimism that has lately prevailed in this nation seems to be dissipating...
...The present feeling that a temporary DC-PC I modus Vivendi will somehow materialize is based on two developments...
...specifically, whether postponing the elections until 19"s> is a w ise choice...
...One even hears expressions of very cautious optimism that Andreotti will shortly negotiate a pact with PCI chief Enrico Berlinguer, and succeed himself as the head of a new government able to coast along until the end of the year...
...b) organized labor's growing concern over unemployment and stagflation...
...At moments such as the present crisis or at election time, the DC takes care to project the image of a rock of anti-Communism...
...The DC high command promptly replied that in view of the unanimajority yes, in the official government majority no...
...ONE MORE DELAY The Christian Democratic Gamble in Italy bys vo f senigallia Rome As this is being written, Italy is still in the throes of a destructive crisis that began in late January, when the Italian Communist party (PCI) withdrew its parliamentary support of Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti and brought down his Christian Democratic (DC) government...
...Or they could chome-K) go to the voters directly and let them settle the matter one way or Should the DC lake the second course, its cries of "confrontation" will be grossly inadequate...
...If the PCI insisted, the only alternative would be to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections, something all involved were and are eager to avoid...
...between elections it recognizes that the realities of political El 1PICO BERlIt JGUEP mous opposition of the entire party, the Communists' demand could not and would not be met...
...Not without reason, the PCI pointed out that if its representatives were good enough to play a major part in shaping and enacting programs, their exclusion from direct responsibilities was no longer justified...
...Second, and more important, the very length of the crisis, paradoxically enough, enhances the odds for a settlement: Public opinion would have difficulty swallowing the announcement that after weeks of meetings, bargaining, consultations, etc., the contending groups could not reconcile their differences—particularly since these are looked upon as largely matters of form, and not of substance...
...The explanation to be found in the course the Christian Democratic leadership has been following in deference to its basically conservative constituency...
...Such an agreement may indeed be concluded before this issue of The New Leader reaches subscribers...
...I-veil so, there is reason to wonder whether lime is on the side of the non-Communist lorces...
...Before the year was out, however, the PCI began proclaiming it was no longer willing to act as a "free blood donor...
...I do not know if Berlinguer will let Andreotti off the hook, but the real mystery' is whether the DC believes the electorate is so gullible that it will go on overlooking the obvious simply because of an agreement's acceptable wording...
...The basic problem can be easily outlined...
...c) membership pressure for party participation in the government...
...Although smarting from this rebuke, the Communists offered revised terms far more difficult to reject: They declared they would back a DC administration, provided the parliamentary motion introducing the new government and its sponsors listed the PCI as part of the majority...
...It is bound to be the kind of document that each side can interpret as it sees fit...
...Should he fail, incidentally, it is highly improbable that any of his party colleagues would have any better luck in preserving the Christian Democrats' shaky postwar political reign...
...The minor lay parties are weak and heading toward extinction, while the Socialists would reject any arrangement that did not include a partnership role for the PCI...
...But otherwise, life could continue exactly as it did earlier—with the Communists in yet outside the government, and the Christian Democrats working with them and denying it...
Vol. 61 • March 1978 • No. 6
