The Voters' Choice in France

...IN A MOOD FOR CHANGE The Voters* Choice j-j-^ FrctnccBY norman jacobs VALERY GISCARD D'ESTAING Paris With less than a month to go before the first-round balloting on March 12, the outcome of France's legislative elections remains too uncertain to call The Center-Right coalition currently in control of the National Assembly should by this time have seemed a shoe-m, given the disunity that has disrupted the Union of the Left True, the Gaulhst, Giscardian and smaller parties making up the Center-Right have also been quarreling as they jockey for preeminent position But they have reached firm agreement on a policy for the decisive second round, to be held March 19 Less successful candidates will withdraw in favor of those who scored highest in the first round, although still short of the necessary majority The Socialists (PS), Communists (PCF) and Left Radicals, who constitute the Union of the Left, have as yet arrived at no such binding understanding, and without one they will find it very difficult to come out on top Nonetheless, for weeks now opinion polls have revealed that a majority of the French electorate favors the Union of the Left In fact, a survey published in the January 23-29 edition of the national weekly L 'Express has it winning the elections—provided the PS and the PCF each gives way in the second round to the other's leading first-round candidates (The Socialists have already pledged to act as though a withdrawal pact is in effect) If the condition were respected in every election district, according to L 'Express, the Umon of the Left would garner 259 seats in the Assembly to 232 for the Center-Right This is a remarkable situation For it means that France is ready to bring to power a coalition government whose major partners cannot even agree to try to agree In "A New Political Season in France" (NL, October 10, 1977), I enumerated the major forces working in favor of the Left If today I had to single out the one most important factor, I should say that it is without question the French people's desire to be nd of a regime which in one form or another has held power since Charles de Gaulle brought the Fifth Republic into being two decades ago Indeed the most effective slogan in the current campaign is undoubtedly "20 years, that's enough" I have heard it voiced repeatedly, not merely by partisans of the Left but by members of the French bourgeoisie who have hitherto voted Center-Right and whose economic interests are bound to Norman Jacobs, long associated with The New Leader, now lives in Paris suffer in the event of a victory by the Left In this climate, the final results of the voting almost certainly depend on the course the Communists decide to take And party leader Georges Mar-chais took a tough stand early in January, while addressing a national conference of the faithful After completing what has become a ritual of bitterly denouncing the Socialists for "moving to the Right" and "abandoning the Common Program" (the proposed Union of the Left platform), he said the Communists would need to poll something close to 25 per cent of the first-round vote for a deal with their erstwhile allies to be possible Only then, Marchais argued, would the PCF have enough strength to insure the Union of the Left's electoral victory, and to bring into power a government really committed to enacting the Common Program A 21-per-cent first-round total, Marchais continued —using the figure given by recent polls—would not be sufficient to warrant an agreement His position confirmed the view, held by many analysts, that the real reason the PCF broke off negotiations last September over updating the Common Program was its unwillingness to enter a coalition where it would play second fiddle to the Socialists But whatever the Communists' motivations, efforts by party leaders to produce the results Marchais called for are apparently failing In the weeks following the national conference, the polls have shown no noticeable upswing in PCF totals—the party continues to attract a steady 21 per cent of the electorate The Socialists and the Left Radicals, on the other hand, have managed to gain a couple of percent -tage points, the Express poll giving them a combined 28 per cent of the first-round vote Even rank-and-file PCF members seem to feel Marchais' strategy is unconvincing, and is designed to serve the party more than the working class Edmond Maire, the head of France's labor organization, the Confide'ration Francaise Dimoaatique du Travail, put it this way "The Communist party is more interested in how it fares than in the success of the united Left The workers will never comprehend how they can be in a position to muster a majority in the elections and still abandon the field to a government of the Right A whole generation risks being sacrificed to the disastrous [PCF] tactic " It may have been these or similar criticisms from the grass roots that led Marchais, toward the end of January, to change his position slightly He did not abandon his familiar criticisms of the PS, but he did declare that the PCF wants to win the elections with its Socialist "comrades " On January 30, nearly a week after French President Valery Giscard d'Estamg delivered in Burgundy his much-heralded speech calling upon the French people to return control of the National Assembly to the Center-Right, Marchais told a radio audience "If elections had been held today, we [the Left] should win " He added that he expected to see Communist ministers participate in a government of the Union of the Left "in sufficient number and in responsible posts " Such utterances have stirred speculation the the PCF is getting ready to further soften its line, and that before the second round of the Assembly voting, it and the PS will agree to a withdrawal pact that should assure them the elections Whoever wins in March, one thing is certain The postelection period will test to the utmost the stability and durability of present-day French institutions A triumph for the Left would mean that for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the President would be dealing with a politically hostile government and National Assembly Since considerable powers are vested in the presidency by the French Constitution, this could bring about an outright constitutional crisis It is true that in his Burgundy speech, Giscard unequivocally promised that should the French people vote for the Left, "the Common Program will be applied " Yet Giscard made it equally clear that in his estimation the Common Program would plunge France into economic disorder Moreover, it is at best uncertain whether a regime that has been dominated by the presidency since its inception "can function normally when the prime minister, his government and the majority of the legislature are the President's political and ideological opponents The scenario most commonly envisaged in the event of a Leftist victory is that within about a year, France will be well on its way to economic chaos, but before the inevitable collapse Giscard will choose a strategic moment to invoke his constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections In these—the French now being sadder and wiser?the Left will presumably be overwhelmingly defeated The confident anticipation of an economic debacle is based on the Common Program being simultaneously committed to sharply stepping up purchasing power, redistributing wealth in favor of the poor, and transforming the French econom\ by nationalizing maior industries As critics see it, the combination is guaranteed to lay France low with galloping inflation, bureaucratic bungling and general confusion Although the forecast is a plausible one, it would be a mistake to take it for granted History, as T S Eliot noted, has many cunning passages and issues " The present Socialist party, whose leaders would control a Union of the Left government, should not be confused with the party led by Guy Mollet for much of the post-World War II period—which had a Social Democratic philosophy and few misgivings about entering into governments with the bourgeois parties of the Fourth Republic The cadres that party chief Francois Mitterrand leads are a different breed They include a powerful Left wing that rejects the Soviet model of Socialism but also sees U S imperialism as an enemy, that has a relatively orthodox Marxist philosophy, and that takes the class struggle seriously While the dominant Mitterrand wing of the party is much less doctrinaire, it too conceives of the Socialist role as serving class needs and bringing an end to the dominance of the French bourgeoisie over the nation's political and economic life Mitterrand is well aware of his opponents' predictions of disaster To counter them he has gathered around himself a brain trust of respected economists who have prepared stern measures to cope with the inflationary potential of the Common Program, and there is no doubt that he has the will and determination to put them into effect Nor should it be forgotten that the Communists would probably be participants in any Union of the Left government Despite their relatively recent acceptance of the democratic rules of the game, it would be more than naive to assume that once they have taken up the seats of power they will surrender them easily In short, if the Left comes to office, anything could happen—except peaceful coexistence between the President and the government The prospects for domestic tranquility are not much brighter, though, with the Center-Right retaining control It is widely agreed that this would reflect the French people's fear of taking the plunge into the unknown more than any genuine enthusiasm for the status quo Admittedly, this sentiment does less than justice to the achievements of Prime Minister Raymond Barre, who has been slowly but steadily bringing the French economy around Unemployment has dropped 14 per cent in the last three months, the inflation rate for the final quarter of 1977 was 6 2 per cent as against 8 2 per cent for the corresponding quarter of 1976, and the French trade balance has recently been running a surplus Although France is not yet out of the woods, and Barre foresees more austerity as well as a need for continuing wage and price restraints, he has not ignored the plight of the poor The minimum wage, pensions to the destitute aged, and other social welfare allocations have been increased faster than the rate of inflation and of controlled wage levels Barre has also put forth a series of measures for the coming year addressed to gradually improving the lot of the most economically underprivileged There is, however, nothing gradual about the proposals contained in the Common Program They would increase family allocations by 50 per cent, old-age pension mimmums by 30 per cent, and the minimum wage by 37 per cent, other wages (up to four times the minimum) would rise on a diminishing scale In addition, workers would receive a fifth week of paid vacation, the work week would be reduced to 40 hours with no cut in pay, and the retirement age at full pension would be lowered to 60 for men and 55 for women Barre's program obviously cannot compete with the virtually irresistible package of goodies the Common Program offers French workers are m no mood to accept austerity or wage restraints They want a bigger cut of the pie today, and the Common Program promises to give it to them For some years now the major French trade umons, anticipating a Union of the Left victory, have been carefully employing tactics that would not endanger the prospect But if the Center-Right wins m March, all self-imposed restraints will go by the board Add to this a more widely shared frustration stemming from the inability to change the government, and you have the makings of a highly unstable, dangerous social climate Former Prime Minister Pierre Men-des-France has cautioned "If the Right holds on to power, there will be lively reactions Do not think that affairs will proceed peacefully There will be social tensions and popular stirrings, and they will create a critical situation After 20 years of power by the Right, if there is no change in the political complexion of the government, the country will erupt " In the last two decades, the years ending in "8" have proved fateful for France Thus 1958 saw the overthrow of the Fourth Republic, and the explosion in May 1968 nearly ousted the Gaulhst regime This year has only just begun, but one needs no gift of prophecy to foretell that regardless of who wins March's elections, France can expect stormy weather in 1978...