The Politics of Independence in Quebec

...PREPARING FOR THE REFERENDUM The Politics of Independence jj^L^^UCbCC BY HAROLD M WALLER Montreal Canada has traditionally enjoyed a reputation for stability and predictability All that was threatened in November 1976, when Quebec elected a provincial government committed to secession from the Canadian Confederation Now, after little more than a year of Parti Que'becois (PQ) hegemony in the province, this country is in the midst of its most serious political and constitutional crisis since it was established 110 years ago For although the outcome of the independence struggle remains very much in doubt, the PQ has announced plans—without setting a date—to fulfill a campaign promise by holding a nonbinding (but weighty) referendum on the issue Unfortunately, the question that will be put before the voters—and therefore the precise nature of independence—has yet to be determined, as a result, political discourse here is marked by a good deal of confusion During its first year in office, the PQ, led by Premier Rene Levesque, sought to allay fears concerning the scope and pace of change It was not overly successful, and Quebecers' anxieties about the future have been translated into a serious economic slowdown in the province Unemployment is officially at 11 5 per cent, while few weeks go by without some new evidence of the lack of confidence plaguing the business community—a graphic example being the Sun Life Assurance Company's recent announcement that it would move its offices from Montreal to Toronto because of PQ policies Not merely jobs and capital have fled Estimates of the number of people who emigrated during 1977 range from 40,000-70,000 One poll indicates that 20 per cent of the population would be tempted to leave if independence were achieved But the unhap-piness is, of course, by no means universal Many of Quebec's 5 million Francophones are undeniably pleased that its million Anglophones are so clearly on the defensive, and that the government is finally doing something about what Levesque calls "the English dominance in our economic life, which is tantamount to a colonial setup " In the provincial legislature, meanwhile, the government has translated some of its words into action Its main accomplishment in 1977 was passing the Charter of the French Language (Bill 101), designed to make "Quebec as French as Ontario is English " Supported by a majority of Francophones, the law elevates French, compelling its Harold M Waller, a past contributor, is associate professor of political science at McGill University increased use, and downgrades English, previously granted official equality in most cases One effect of the charter—and perhaps its chief intention—is to make daily existence difficult for Quebecois who cannot function easily m French (Sun Life cited this as among the main reasons for its move to Toronto ) Opponents of Bill 101 have spoken out against its coercive aspects (enforcing the law necessitates considerable government involvement), and the way its rules concerning who can attend English-speaking schools effectively increase the number of classes of Canadian citizens What is most important, critics charge, the law illustrates the PQ's determination to legislate in the majority's interest regardless of whether minority rights are thereby threatened Separatists suffered a minor setback late last month when the Chief Justice of the Quebec Superior Court declared that the section of Bill 101 making French the only official language of the legislature and the courts was in direct conflict with the British North America Act, Canada's constitution If the decision is upheld by the Supreme Court, this would be a significant development But the PQ is already using the episode to prove that the British North America Act is obsolete and that consequently Quebec cannot achieve its legitimate linguistic and cultural aspirations within the Confederation Levesque has been quoted as saying, "the constitution is an ass and should be thrown out " How Quebecers feel about the PQ's programs—including an attempt to control participation in the referendum campaign—largely corresponds to the language they speak Interestingly, though, the general level of satisfaction with the government has dropped sharply in recent months, by last November, according to a Radio-Canada public opinion survey, 53 per cent of the province's population weren't happy with the government Disapproval is greatest in the area of economics, and this may well be the most vulneiable point tn the separatists' case For there is a widespread belief in Quebec—vigorously encouraged by the pro-Federalist forces?that one of the costs of independence would surely be a decline in the current state of relative economic well-being and a drop in living standards This trepidation is why the PQ has replaced the imposing idea of simple independence with the rather Utopian one of sovereignty-association (a concept, incidentally that 45 per cent of Quebecers do not understand) The PQ has not spelled out how it plans to have the province become independent and at the same time retain an PIERRE EUIOT TRUDEAU economic association with Canada But opposition from the rest of the country to letting Quebec have its cake and eat it, too, would appear to make any such scheme unworkable Control of the provincial government has given the Parti Quebecois possession of the initiative, leaving Ottawa and the pro-Federalist forces within Quebec merely to react Current PQ strategy appears to be to focus on the referendum, if carried, it would be a mandate to negotiate the creation of a separate countrv A bill passed last year in the Legislature permits the government to set the date for the voting on fairly short notice and to determine how the issue would be phrased These powers—plus the traditional privileges of incumbency—put the separatists at an enormous advantage Still, a majority of Quebecers seem to fear total independence According to a Canadian Broadcastmg Company poll conducted in October by Professors Richard Hamilton and Maurice Pinard of McGill University, 15 per cent of them favor breaking completely with Canada, 68 per cent are opposed, and 17 per cent are undecided The poll also found that only 25 per cent of Quebec's population believe the province will be independent within five years—a figure that has not changed at all since 1973, and is virtually the same in the rest of Canada In the light of these and other findings, the government is not rushing to the ballot box But the referendum must be held before the next provincial election in 1980 or '81, and most analysts feel that it will actually take place sometime next year In the interim, the PQ apparently intends to push its ambiguous sovereignty-association concept to neutralize Quebec's separation anxieties The Federalists ridicule the notion as a contradiction in terms Canadian Finance Minister Jean Chretien, to cite one, recently observed "Insist on sovereignty and you are talking about independence Insist on association, and you have embraced a federal system " The charges of word-juggling notwithstanding, the ploy shows signs of working Public support for sovereignty-association has been markedly higher than for plain independence A Radio-Canada survey of last fall found that 50 per cent favored it, 40 per cent were against it, and 10 per cent were undecided When people were presented with other choices however—including the constitutional status quo, a revised form ot Federalism and outright independence—revised Federalism proved the most popular and independence the least Given this preference, the PQ will probably try to restrict the voters' choice in the referendum If, for instance, the only two options were the status quo and sovereignty-association, the widespread desire for change might well be expressed by support for the latter Until the referendum is held, Levesque and his supporters are unlikely to consider nonindependence options officially If they win, they can be expected to struggle very hard for a divorce settlement with Ottawa (failing that, a unilateral declaration of independence cannot be ruled out) Should they lose, they might be willing to consider Federal proposals, such as negotiating a new constitution Yet since Levesque believes his chances improve the national voting that is widely expected to be held between June and October of this year, but could be delayed until the spring of 1979 With national unity a major issue, Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau's leadership will be put to the test Of particular interest will be his Liberal party's showing in its traditional power base of Quebec The voters here seem to be of two minds, the latest data showing that 47 per cent prefer the separatist PQ in provincial politics, and 66 per cent the Federalist Liberals in national politics Any decline in Liberal strength would be taken as a sign of growing sentiment for non-Federalist options with time, he would probably gamble that the PQ will win a new mandate in the next provincial election and hold out for another referendum Whatever the outcome of the initial referendum, the experts do not anticipate an overwhelming victory for either side This has prompted Levesque to say that if it is defeated and a majority of Francophones have voted yes, he might question the legitimacy of the result The Premier's commitment to letting his French-speaking constituents determine their future thus carries with it the unfortunate implication that English-speakers are somehow not genuine Quebecois Besides the referendum, two upcoming elections will have significant effects on Canada's future The first is A key question is whether Trudeau himself will be able to retain power Current polls show that the Liberal party is in the lead, and that Trudeau is widely regarded by many Canadians as the best person for the prime minis-ership during this period of national crisis Nevertheless, the performance of his government in many areas, especially involving the economy, has not been good and a Liberal victory is hardly assured Indeed, talk of a minority government is heard with increasing frequency among Ottawa cognoscenti Pro-Federalists are convinced, meanwhile, that anything other than a Liberal majority in Parliament would weaken the national government and enhance the fortunes of the PQ The other election, for the Quebec National Assembly in 1980 or '81, is already the subject of intense speculation The opposition Liberals have yet to name a leader to succeed former Premier Robert Bourassa, so the PQ's present dominance is subject to change Of the main contenders—former minister Raymond Garneau and newspaper publisher Claude Ryan—neither has great charisma, but Ryan's outspokenness and character make him the more interesting candidate Yet even with the growing polarization of the electorate on the independence issue clearly favoring the Liberals, they face a steep uphill fight The United States government has viewed the struggle for Quebec with a combination of public detachment and a clear preference that Confederation be maintained—if only to avoid the destabilizing impact of an independent Quebec The Levesque government is trying to counter such attitudes through a quiet public relations campaign it is currently conducting south of the border Within Quebec, the PQ is doing its utmost to build up its base of support, and to further the idea that Quebec alone should decide a matter that has profound implications for the entire Canadian nation It has left Ottawa little choice but to play the naysayer —a role it would prefer to avoid The French Canadians who at present dominate the Federal government seem particularly at loose ends, excluded by their fellow Quebecois from participating in a political process that will determine their collective and individual futures From now on Canadians, and Que-becers most of all, will be subject to an intense, occasionally emotional, political experience Whether the country survives intact will probably depend on how the people of Quebec weigh the value of their linguistic and cultural aspirations against their feelings of economic well-being, material comfort, and loyalty to a country that has never quite given them a sense of belonging...