Southern Africa vs. the World

...the World by russell warren howe Washington For Southern Africa, the summer just approaching promises lo be one of the longest and hottest in history Rhodesia, where Pi imc Ministei Ian Smith now says he is unlikely to hand over power to a black government on December 31, shows signs of tension everywhere...

...We shall complete voter registration in time for elections to he held December 4-5 A Committee has yet to report on the feasibility of holding elections " (According to Savory, registration has been abandoned Anyone who looks over 21 will be able to vote by dipping his thumb in indelible ink to prevent his voting twice) Sithole "The majority of whites will stay We cannot remove restrictions on exporting savings, or most of the whites would leave We have whites who have been there for two or three generations now and they want to stay The whites could not bear to live under black government " Smith "We will have a government of blacks and whites together' Sithole "There is nothing in the constitution [to be published shortly] that there must be some sort of white minister " The two men did not contradict themselves or each other, however, on the question of British participation in a pre-independence transitional government Said Smith "This is a matter between Rhodesians The British should not interfere " Agreed Sithole "Britain should have no more authority in our affairs " But Washington—like the UN and the Organization for African Unity?still recognizes London as the only legitimate seat of government for the maverick colony, and therefore continues to insist on the Anglo-American plan to resolve the Rhodesian dispute This calls for a brief takeover by a British resident commissioner, Field Marshal Lord Carver, backed by Commonwealth troops in UN uniforms There would be a controlled cease-fire, voter-registration, a constituent assembly, a referendum, free elections, and independence A two-hour session with Secretary of State Cyrus Vance in the early days of the visit did not seem to make much progress in this direction Both Smith and a State Department spokesman said afterward that the two sides were far apart A subsequent meeting with Foggy Bottom officials prior to the conclusion of the two-week trip, though, produced agreement on an all-parties conference "without preconditions " In the interim, the Rhodesian Armed Forces had carried out a devastating series of raids against zapu deep inside Zambia, prompting speculation that Smith made his unexpected conciliatory move because he knew Nkomo and Mugabe would now reject it—as they did Thus despite outward appearances, little seems to have been changed by the Rhodesian leaders' lobbying efforts in the United States Congress did authorize President Carter to lift the trade embargo against Rhodesia if there is an "all-party negotiation" under "international auspices" and internationally-observed elections, but there is at present no hope of these conditions being met Smith appears bent on following an early South African tactic for insuring Pretoria's control of an independent Namibia—namely, giving the impression of bowing to Western entreaties while launching attacks in the field that are certain to keep his challengers from sitting down with him at the peace table This raises the question of an alternative to the unpromising existing situation One that is being urged by Allan Savory's National Unifying Force (NUF), representing an educated 20 per cent of Rhodesia's whites, would have the U S take the lead in organizing an "outer ring" conference of Zambia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Botswana, South Africa, the U S .Britain, and the secretariat to draw up an agenda for an "inner ring" conference of Nkomo, Mugabe and Smith As outlined at a White House meeting by an NUF lobbying trio here to counter the Smith quartet, the agenda would include setting up a temporary "neutral administration", establishing a single army from the two guerrilla groups and Rhodesia's security units, disarming all other forces, a constituent assembly, a referendum, and genuine free elections Once this is agreed upon, the NUF theory goes, the "outer ring" powers would impose it on the "inner ring"—with Mozambique and Tanzania ordering Mugabe to "attend and remain at the conference" or lose his guerrilla bases in their countries, Zambia doing the same with Nkomo, South Africa pressuring Smith, and the OAU, the U S and Britain each exerting its clout The Nkomo-Mugabe-Smith conference could, if it wished, expand to include other black and white parties Should the outside powers fail to intervene in this fashion, says Savory, one of the three Salisbury black leaders—probably Muzorewa—will become the first African president of Zimbabwe sometime early next year after token elections, and he will face a guerrilla war with declining military strength as white officers desert the country Unless a deal is made with Nkomo, according to Savory, the guerrillas will capture Salisbury But in any event, an immediate civil war will begin between Mugabe's and Nkomo's men and before the whites decamp there is bound to be violence in the cities Another scenario centers on maneuvers by the angry, frustrated Sithole as Smith, Muzorewa, Nkomo, and Mugabe jockey for power Besides plotting to kill Ian Smith, Sithole gave the nod for the 1965 assassination of his first challenger within zanu, Herbert Chitepo, while the latter was in exile as attorney general of Zambia The hit team against Chitepo was headed by Josiah Tongogara, who now leads Mugabe's guerrillas but scorns the Marxist and has his own designs on power Sithole and Tongogara are thought to be in touch with each other, and Sithole is believed obsessed with the thought that the zanu legions, once his, are the key to eliminating Mugabe, Muzorewa and every other roadblock to power If the zanu forces could vanquish Nkomo's men, Tongogara and Sithole would dominate Still others see Nkomo bringing in the Cubans to defeat zanu and everyone else In short, the one point which there seems to be general agreement is that if events are allowed to continue along their present course in Rhodesia, or even in Namibia, the summer just beginning in Southern Africa could be marked by a blood bath Russell Warren Howe, a frequent {contributor to The New Leader, is a veteran observer of the American scene...

...There are more guns on the seats of cars than in a cheap Western, and the bloody anti-guernlla excursions made last month while the entire four-man transitional government (Smith, Bishop Abel Muzorewa, Chief Jeremiah Chrrau and Reverend Ndabaningi Sithole) was on a lobbying expedition to the U S have dramatically emphasized the feelings of uncertainty in the country In South Africa, the newly-installed Prime Minister Pieter W. Botha (pronounced Bwotta) swears he will take on the world rather than surrender to "black nationalism and Communism " The single exception to the crisis atmosphere seems to be Namibia, where whites are resigned to predominantly black government at the end of the year Yet the appearance is deceptive Last April 10 South Africa, which governs the former German colony, accepted a United Nations plan to give nationhood to the mineral-rich territory—devised by the U S , Britain, Canada, West Germany and France, and stitched together by Donald McHenry, Ambassador Andrew Young's number three man at the UN All seemed well until Secretary General Kurt Waldheim, after receiving a report from the special UN representative for Namibia, Ambassador Martti Ahti-saan of Finland, said he would need 7,500 United Nations troops to supervise a cease-fire between South African forces and the main nationalist movement, Sam Nujoma's South West African People's Organization (swapo) Waldheim also proposed that elections take place, and independence be given, next year (probably April) The Security Council backed him 12-0, with the Soviet Union abstaining Pretoria immediately charged it was being "gazumped"—a British expression meaning raising the price after the purchaser has agreed to buy John Vorster, the then prime minister, complained that the period before independence would allow swapo too much time to campaign He set the elections instead tor November 20-24 —a move designed to guarantee power to moderate black leaders, who have already agreed to grant the vv lute 10 per cent ot the population constitutional veto power in the legislature Botha, atleast as conservative as Vorster, has put off the balloting to early December but plans to keep the December 31 independence deadline In the hope of persuading him to change his mind, Secretary of State Cyrus R Vance and his fellow Western foreign ministers flew out to Pretoria last month They argued that a Nujo-ma government would depend heavily for trade, communications and technology on South Africa, and that Nu-joma would no more dare make Namibia a base for South African black guerrillas than has Prime Mimster Sir Seretse Khama in neighboring Botswana Botha, whose mandate is not quite as strong as Vorster's was, would offer nothing more than a promise that he would try to get a second round of elections next year under UN supervision, after Namibia becomes independent If South Africa goes ahead with its own schedule, as seems likely, the outlook is for an independent Namibia that will not be internationally recognized, for trade sanctions on South Africa, and for a build-up of the Nami-bian civil war, with Cubans probably coming in from neighboring Angola to mount a decisive thrust Ovamboland, the Agricultural area along the Angolan border inhabited by the territory's largest tribe and wholly dominated by swapo, will fall first (Nujoma's only opposition here comes from a few tribal headmen paid by the South African government, who fear replacement by swapo youngbloods) The rest of Namibia will almost certainly follow Yet this gloomy scenario apparently does not bother South Africa It seems quite prepared to take on not only the African nationalists but the West as well In Rhodesia, the outlook is even bleaker—and the present political turmoil greater There is conflict on every front The transitional government is battling the guerrillas, Smith is battling his black partners, his partners are battling each other, and there is hostility between Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe African People's Umon (zapu) and Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union (zanu), the two components of the Patriotic Front In this atmosphere, it is hardly surprising that atrocity stories are endless Garfield Todd, the New Zealand-born missionary who was the country's last liberal prime minister, says that because the censors review all journalists' copy on military activities, guerrilla atrocities alone are generally reported in the press Todd tells, though, of a Church investigation which found that 61 Africans at a Catholic mission, far from being "killed in crossfire" during operations against guerrillas, were mown down by security forces He describes, too, an incident involving zanu troops who came to a nearby village and were fed The headman stole away on his bicycle to inform the nearest security headquarters A few hours later, government African soldiers disguised as guerrillas came to the village Their leader said he wanted to talk to the villagers about the "struggle" Most came out of their kraals for the meeting —and were promptly gunned down When the headman cycled back to the village the following day, the survivors butchered him "There's no stopping it," Todd believes "The atrocities will get worse Punitive raids by the security forces are meant to break popular support for the guerrillas, but they only harden people's resistance, like bombing Besides, the guerrillas would be unable to function without massive popular support They have no transport They get volunteer porterage, and they get food and shelter " But whatever advantages it enjoys, the Patriotic Front suffers from the fact that zanu's estimated 8,000 troops and zapu's 2,000 (with about 12,000 in reserve in Zambia and Angola) don't get along Indeed, should Zimbabwe become a reality through military power, these two forces will probably start fighting each other In his drive for the presidency of prime ministership, Nkomo has the support of Britain, the U S , the Soviet Union, Cuba, Zambia, Botswana, and Angola His units are Soviet-armed and Cuban-trained, and he can have Cuban volunteers any time he asks for them Mugabe has direct support only from Mozambique, Tanzania and China, which arms and trains his men (though Moscow is courting him in the hope of unifying the Patriotic Front under its control) Ideologically, the ascetic and intellectual Mugabe describes himself as a Marxist But a Rhodesian settler who recently visited Mugabe helped him draw up a list of settlers—industrialists, administrators, key technicians—whom he wants to stay, and he adds to it constantly Nkomo, sybaritic and unideological, talks of having a mixture of free enterprise and cooperative farms As for the three "black-smiths," as the Prime Minister s partners are known, they have collected small guerrilla armies of their own Muzorewa, the best known of the trio, is said to have 800 men A group of them is reported to have fallen on an Army contingent (reputedly 600-strong) loyal to Muzorewa's co-chief minister, Sithole, and killed them all Apparently undistressed by the two quarrelsome clerics eliminating each other's supporters, Smith—who has just bought a house m Salisbury and now seems motivated by the incredible thought that he could live in Zimbabwe under an African government—is making end-runs of his own His September meeting with Nkomo in Zambia succeeded in driving a further wedge between Nkomo and the Mozambique-based Mugabe, but by not informing Muzorewa, Sithole or his third partner, Chirau—who actually did not disapprove in principle—of the meeting, Smith also drove a wedge between himself and them This is not something he can easily afford to do, since his political position is deteriorating Several new and old white parties oppose him as either too rigid or not tough enough, and although his Rhodesian Front won the recent local white elections it received less than 50 per cent of the vote A referendum among whites on the internal settlement with the black-smiths, to be held soon, may show a majority against the Prime Minister—thus invalidating the arrangement altogether It was against this background that a gaunt looking Smith stepped oft a plane in Washington last October 7 accompanied by Sithole (Mu-zoicwa and Chirau arrived a few days later) Here by the invitation ot 27 senator, (lie Rhodesian leaders hoped to drum up support for internal settlement But the whole undertaking got of to a bad start even before Smith left home, when he told a reporter he would defend his recent jailing of 300 African political leaders by saying they were tools of foreign (Communist) influence and continued "Didn't Americans lock up the Japs in World War II7" Only later did he realize that the person primarily responsible for his invitation was California Republican S I Hayakawa, one of the U S Senate's three Niser members Moreover, when Smith and Sithole reached Washington they found Congress busy with last-minute legislation and anxious to leave for the hustings, a mere 10 of the 27 sponsoring senators had time to receive their guests The Rhodesians' many public appearances did not fare well either Hostile demonstrators were so relentless that at one point Hayakawa's press secretary asked the networks not to cover some of the events, because the cameras would only attract more demonstrators After every appearance, too, editors received calls from Todd in New York, of from Allan Savory, leader of Rhodesia's moderate white opposition coalition, in Washington They pointed out Smith's subterluges and suggested tougher questions (Savory a former countersurgency officer who named black pseudoguerillas to stage operations later blamed on the "terrorists, eventually concluded that the war is unwinnable He was accompanied by a businessman, Lance Reynolds, and attorney Nick McNally, who defended Sithole in 1965 when he was sentenced for plotting to kill Smith ) Matters were further aggravated by the tension between Smith and his would-be assassin On the rostrum, Smith got most of the questions, while Sithole simply looked on, irritated A TV field producer who told his video operators, " Give me a TCU of Rochester" seemed to sum it all up Given a chance to speak, the bitter Sithole generally recalled that he had founded zanu Whereas Nkomo emerged from detention to a chorus of support from African presidents and his old followers, Sithole, who had risked execution, found that his secretary general, Mugabe, had taken over the party, and that another man had taken over his wite Smith, whom he hated enough to try to kill, consequently became his last passport to a return from political oblivion The lack ot rapport between the two men perhaps explains why they contradicted themselves and each other in their many statements to the American press and public Herewith some examples Smith "The door is open to the Patriotic Front at any time, to both Mr Nkomo and Mr Mugabe " Sithole "Mugabe can only come in it he makes amends to me "Smith ' We are not losing the war If the US continues to give encouragement to the terrorists, they will come to power by force " Sithole "The war is not escalating We are expanding the government forces because the guenilla forces are expanding ' Sithole "II the U S withdraws itc moral support from (he Patriotic Front, they will have to come to terms The Patriotic front won't come to terms because all that interest them is power " Smith It may take months to complete voter registration Sithole...