Manley's Mistakes in Jamaica

...Yet other nations feeling the same pinch managed somehow to compensate, so the explanation is not terribly persuasive...

...Manley has brought Jamaica to bankruptcy and virtually extinguished its previously bright prospects...

...The two countries would go "hand in hand," he said, warmly supporting the readmission of ostracized Cuba to the Organization of American States...

...Such notions, however, ha\ e prov en inadequate to the task of coping with almost overwhelming social problems and the government's discouraging in-eptness...

...When the ugly political campaign between the PNP and the opposition Jamaica Labor Party (J PL) contributed to a further rise in violent crime (both sides allegedly provided guns for supporters), a state of national emergency was declared and civil rights were suspended...

...SI35 million standby agreement with the International Monetary fund (IMF...

...Thus Manley had to ruefully admit in an address to the people that the country had no alternative except to turn again to the IMF...

...But running on a platform that essentially amounted to "we can do it better," it could not make a dent in his popularity...

...open hostility to wealthier groups mounted...

...Chronic unemployment and underemployment, at levels of 20-25 per cent, had defied attempts to provide more jobs through industrialization, prompting the belief among some elements in both of the country's political parties that the problem was insoluble...

...Manley himself places much of the blame for the island's predicament on the petroleum price increases in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis...

...The 53-year-old Manley reportedly drew much of his initial inspiration from E.M.C...

...inner l/Vi" 'c'V' >mh''i: in Id!!': I ?;,?;, ,;, can dollar was sharply devalued, too, in the hope of stimulating exports to help the nation eventually regain fiscal solvency...

...In short, the early programs were moderate and won wide popular support...

...Then he went beyond Durbin, to advocate a "humane" society where the determinant is "the worker's relation to the production process...

...The PNP majority in Parliament also approved laws permitting the expropriation of unused farm land, and inaugurated a "land lease" program that placed 14,000 tenants on 63,000 acres —less than a sweeping land reform measure, since enthusiasm for farming here is low because 94 per cent of those in agriculture earn below $20 a week...

...Thus he moved principally against the foreign aluminum companies, boosting taxes on their exports from roughly $25 million to $225 million annually, but stopped short of his goal of f ull nationalization...

...At the same time, the government's shift to the Left—underscored by trade (and aid-seeking) missions to the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, Cuba, and the nonaligned Socialist nations—gave considerable encouragement to the island's more extreme Leftist elements...

...More serious, in fact, was the attempt to aid the poor and to maintain control of the electorate without recognizing the real cost of trying to do both at the same time...

...When Manley and his People's National Party (PNP) came to power in 1972, Jamaica was in relatively good shape...

...It was forced to publicly assume that role last June, when mounting debts left the Manley regime no alternative except to seek a three-year...

...It was the only alternative to Manley...

...Aware of the record in Cuba, and having closely watched the situation in the neighboring Commonwealth country of Guyana under the Forbes Burnham Socialist regime, they began to flee...

...A chorus of criticism was directed against the capitalist system and "neocolonialism...

...The PNP won the parliamentary election by an overwhelming margin, taking 46 seats to the opposition's 13...

...Announcement of the agreement and its effects (the price of a shot of rum, for example, went up 50 per cent), inspired angry stencilled wall slogans: "IMF—Is Wanley's / unit...

...But many Jamaicans of the wealthy and professional classes feared otherwise...

...That was to be of particular significance as the 1976 parliamentary elections came on the horizon while the successive price hikes of the oil producing countries were taking their toll —escalating import costs and depressing exports...

...In 1476 alone, despite reductions in imports, exchange reserves of $240 million had to be drawn down, and internally the Bank of Jamaica had to supply a record $386 million in support of the budget...

...currency reserves were high...

...And the bad news...

...In addition, he turned more than ever to the numerically small yet politically articulate left wing of his party...

...The poor performance lias also undermined the 1'iiine Minister's ic-peated calls ioi .1 "new economic Older" that would establish price parities between the goods of the developed and the dev eloping nations...

...The only serious criticism of the government came from previously favorable columnists in the Kingston newspaper, the Gleaner, known for its independence...

...pcihaps, was expressed in anothei plaintive wall slogan: " Flic poot can't lake no moi e " Still, bet oi e I lungs get betiet the poor piobahlv will have to...

...Jamaica's 11 agedv...

...Ironically, the JLP, which shares a common labor mo\ ement heritage with its rival and supports many similar progressive programs, had suddenly found itself embraced by the island's conservatives...

...The stigma of illegitimate birth—in a country where 85 per cent of the children are born out of wedlock—was removed by a liberal Status of Children Act...

...Suspicions have been heightened that this would end up being little more than a subsidy for the economically maladroit, who find themselves unable to deal with the rising expectations of their peoples and the inherent vagaries of the free-market system...

...At first it seemed to mean the achievement through democratic methods of egalitarian policies leading toward socialism...

...Moreover, the island's institutions, based on the British model and perfected during a 100-year drive for independence that was finally successful in 1962, augured well for progressive democratic growth...

...Ins desire to make things hci-tcr, seem to have insulated linn from full rcsponsibilnv tor his mistakes and the counti v \ mess...

...Our check bounced...

...The system of land tenure was anachronistic, one-third of the land being held by little over 1,000 families...

...His idealism...

...Consequently the manufacturing sector—where, it should be noted, markups reached as high as 77 per cent—encountered delays in getting equipment and raw materials and raised prices accordingly...

...But the PNP hierarchy, from Manley on dovv n. has gi\ -en every indication that it will hold on to power until the 1981 elections...

...We can buy the Jamaica branch of the Hank of Montreal for one dollar...

...He appeared to be heeding Durbin's warning that a Democratic Socialist party, upon taking office, "should be willing to reduce their social service proposals to the minimum consistent with the retention of political power...

...Per capita production was rising rapidly...

...Ostensibly these acquisitions were intended to protect jobs and prevent a massive disruption of life...

...Some piecemeal borrowing managed to keep the country afloat: S40 million from commercial banks, S25 million from Great Britain, extended credits from Canada, and tax advances from the bauxite companies...

...There were problems, of course...

...one source estimates that nearly $300 million in foreign reserves held by Jamaicans left the country, legally and illegally...

...the victory was so one-sided that campaign talk of a "revolution" if the PNP mation, reacted by insisting that all means of communication belonged in the hands of the people...

...Fearful of political repercussions, the government launched a "crash" program of hiring people for public projects...

...A more radical approach became apparent in mid-1975, following a visit by Manley to Fidel Castro's Cuba...

...Give me the good news first," the embattled Prime Minister said...

...The joke illustrates the twin results of Manley's "Demo-Socialism," a fuzzy program that is subject to varying interpretations in this beautiful Caribbean island of 2.2 million persons...

...In any event, instead of emerging as an example to be emulated by other Third World nations, Jamaica now seems east as a textbook example of failure...

...An appalling gap existed between the rich and the poor—with the poorest 60 per cent of the population earning only 19 per cent of the national income, while the richest 5 per cent earned 30 per cent...

...FJut at year's end, the international agency found that Jamaica had not lived up to its agreement and abrogated the pact...

...The abrupt end of the tourist boom were successful immediately died away...

...Government advertising was pulled out, though, making it necessary for Jamaica's sole organ of dissent to reduce its staff and curtail its size...

...foreign investment, principally in bauxite mining, was substantial...

...Some calls were made for his resignation, or lor a national union government with the JLP...

...The Prime Minister's personal popularity has certainly declined, \et even now no other leader in or out of the PNP enjoys such strong support...

...One device used to accomplish this was a two-tier price system that allowed certain basic imports to come in at a reduced rate...

...The reputation of these workers reached its nadir early this year, after a riot in which three persons were killed, when it was revealed that the disturbance had been triggered in part because of filthy streets in an area supposedly being cleaned by the astounding total of 828 "crashies...

...Reports of all this in the international press sent tourism plummeting by 100,000 visitors in the 1975-76 season, for a loss of close to $20 million...

...and several criminal incidents involving tourists occurred...

...I lie K1m.11I vvii s Si \\ 11 ik 11 Hk vi isii \w...

...The jobs went to PNP supporters, naturally, and for the first time in Jamaica's history the public sector became the largest single employer—up 30,000 from 1974, and accounting for almost one-sixth of a national labor force estimated at 685,000...

...From then on the Cuban example loomed large in Manley's thinking...

...Throughout most of his first administration, Manley proceeded cautiously with his modernization efforts...

...By early 1977, a first tentative stand-bv agreement was made with the IMF...

...The shortage of foreign exchange, though, caused a nearly one-third reduction in allocations for capital goods...

...A FAILURE OF 'DEMO-SOCIALISM' Manley's Mistakes 111 J^KdcliCcl BYJAMES STANFORD BRADSHAW Mk HAU MAI i|t> Kingston Abitti-r joki-: circulating here early this year concerned the aide who told Prime Minister Michael Manley he had good news and bad news...

...The hope was that the 1977-78 tourist season would turn things around...

...This almost quadrupled—to over $200 million annually—the foreign exchange needed by energy-poor Jamaica to keep its thermal generating plants, transport, and oil stoves operating...

...I he terms of the accord, following usual IMF practices, involve close monitoring of government spending—including the curtailment or complete eutolt ol some subsidies assisting the island's multitudinous poor —and siccp tax increases 10 reduce the spread between income and expenditures...

...Labor laws were revised to provide workers greater job security and minimum wages, as well as to give the potent labor unions still stronger voices in industrial disputes and politics...

...There, the Jamaican leader saw another island nation with weaker institutions, but under a charismatic leader, making great strides toward exactly what he hoped to bring to his country: jobs, schools, industry, medical care, massive foreign aid...

...Private investment, the counterbalance to dwindling foreign exchange funds, v ir-lually dried up...

...The bauxite fund itself—supposedly reserved for development projects, since bauxite was viewed as a declining resource—was heavily raided as well...

...Meanwhile violence, brought on by the cruel disparity between the rich and the poor, was rising steadily...

...The upcoming '76 election produced a program for holding down food prices by a variety of economically dubious measures, too, with the result that increases for food and drink were kept below 10 per cent, despite previous jumps of from 15-20 per cent a year...

...After six years ol rule...

...and the tourist industry, blessed with a genuinely friendly and hospitable people, winter warmth, verdant mountains, and exquisite beaches, was thriving...

...Administration Leftists, who already controlled the Jamaica Broadcasting Corporation and fun-neled out their press releases through the captive Agency for Public Inforled the not unwilling government to step in and buy up selected hotels too, while the general economic slowdown presented the opportunity for it to take over other businesses—among them the nation's only flour mill and Jamaica Omnibus Services...

...Although there was a marked recovery, thanks to a new emphasis on package tours that offered exceptional value for the money, it was not enough to give Jamaica breathing room...

...Traditional exports like bananas, coconuts and even sugar were failing to retain their share of the market, and were not being replaced with other agricultural commodities...

...It was with difficulty that Manley himself prevented a forcible takeover of the Gleaner...

...With no substantive offers of help coming from the Soviet bloc or Third World countries, Jamaica found itself barely able to fund day to day operations...

...Consistent overspending, however, could not he dealt with as easily as critics...

...Durbin, whose views were popular when the Prime Minister as a young man studied at the London School of Economics and worked for the British Broadcasting Corporation...

...The still young, unstable manufacturing industry had an average work force per factory of only 42 persons...