The Troubling Summer of '78

...In West Germany, the results of the Hamburg and Lower Saxony state balloting appear to signal a two-party system, ushered in by a period of legislative paralysis and stagnation...

...Not that the USSR is without problems in this area...

...letting down Ethiopia's strongman Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam...

...President Carter wants a pact soon, too, because he is worried about the possible turmoil attending the power transfer in the Kremlin-and also because he hopes it will help shore up his sagging prestige in the U.S...

...In light of this, the two Superpowers might begin to edge their way toward a new concept in their relations...

...The aging, puffy First Secretary, the man who has more unrestrained power in his hands than anybody else in the world, tried to-and could not-get up from an armchair...

...would cut back on oil imports...

...Its policy of supporting "wars of national liberation" in Africa appears to be entering a decisive stage...

...the new twists in the centuries-old rivalries of Southeast Asia...

...Instead of a single, all embracing detente where everything is linked (detente as understood by the West), or one where the Soviets can do anything anywhere except engage in direct confrontation in Europe (detente as interpreted by Moscow), the two nations could try a third course: Human rights, conventional armament, trade relations, and wars-by-proxy in the Third World would remain part and parcel of a single detente where in principle linkage would prevail...

...energy crisis...

...Unfortunately, the outlook is not bright: Britain is rather unenthusiastic about the role it has been assigned and about the implications of the Zone of Monetary Stability...

...Havana's faithful service to its Russian master notwithstanding, Castro is reluctant to help the Kremlin crush the Eritrean rebellion against Ethiopia...

...Further, its defeats on the state level foreshadow the Free Democrats' disappearance from the Bundestag...

...Whether the community will retrench itself into a protectionist shell or remain an instrument for mutual growth probably depends on the progress made in creating the new "European Zone of Monetary Stability" proposed at the Bremen EEC summit, and on the success of a three-way "package deal" that was the real subject of the last month's Bonn summit of leaders of the major Western industrialized nations...

...First, that with the closing of the Belgrade Conference Moscow no longer feels compelled to keep up appearances...

...In the Middle East, the "moment of truth" is fast approaching for Egypt, Israel and the United States...

...At the other edge of the world's stage, in Indochina, the Sino-Soviet confrontation has become interlocked with the historic hostility of the Vietnamese toward the Chinese and of the Cambodians toward the Vietnamese...

...For the European Common Market (EEC) as a whole, conflicts of interest are reaching alarming proportions...

...Nonetheless, as matters stand, the "special relationship" between the U.S...

...It is a climate that could easily give rise to the belief that a Communist administration would be the least of all possible evils...

...and the outbursts of hostility in Africa...

...in particular, may find itself compelled to reassess the validity of some of its actions and beliefs-ranging from the boosting of Palestinian prestige to racing to sell increasing amounts of arms to everyone in the region, with emphasis on the oil-rich nations...

...These changes involve relations between the United States and a Soviet Union showing signs of a return to Stalinism...

...State legislatures, however, elect the representatives of the Federal Upper House, and losing representation there sharply reduces the Free Democrats' chances of influencing the opposition Christian Democrats, who have a tendency to block vital government legislation...

...If it is to be war-without-end, not simply survival will be at stake: Israel will have to consider the impact of such a choice on the younger generations-and on Zionist ideology, one of whose main tenets has always held that the creation of a Jewish State is the way to provide normalcy for the Jews as a people and as individuals...

...The reason for this gloomy prospect is that in those elections the small Free Democratic Party failed to obtain the minimum percentage of votes needed to remain on the ballot, and it will therefore not be represented in the two State legislatures...

...More important, all Europeans are quite skeptical of President Carter's ability to put an end to America's energy profligacy...

...In Britain, the Liberal party, the 10-vote margin for the Labor government of Prime Minister James Callaghan, declared in May that it would not renew an agreement of support running out in the fall...

...The changes now occurring at various points on the globe have been germinating for years, and so should not have come as a surprise...

...Brezhnev has repeatedly made clear his eagerness to sign a new salt treaty, which would provide the Soviet Union with some very important strategic advantages and would assure him an especially honored niche in both Russian and world history...

...It is in this sense that the Summer of 1978 has brought to the surface events that illuminate the crucial period we are entering...

...How and if such a policy can be pursued is likely to be determined by what happens over the next 12 months in the other areas I have discussed...

...Under that agreement, Britain and France (and perhaps even Italy) would get a tight grip on their inflation, while Japan stopped flooding the West with its exports and opened its markets...

...Germany is the most vigorous defender of free trade, but Bonn's influence is limited by its rejection of demands to reflate the German economy as a means of increasing economic activity in other countries of the EEC...

...But from a global point of view, it is more important that the crucial factor in Washington's decision was the (admitted) extent to which America has become dependent on oil imports from the Middle East...

...As a result, the "original sin" is today bearing its fruits?0,000 Cuban soldiers promoting Moscow's interests and taking over "national struggles" of all kinds from Namibia to Shaba, from Maure-tania to Somalia...

...and the U.S...

...In addition, it has spurred China to more rapidly expand its ties, and even to gingerly test the idea of military cooperation, with the West...

...And the success or failure of the venture may well determine how African leaders will react in other political crises: Whether they will come to the conclusion that the West is able and willing to help them stand up, or whether they will decide that they had better make accomodations with groups backed by Moscow...

...Nonetheless, Soviet behavior at home and in Africa is certain to make it difficult for Carter to obtain Senate approval of another salt accord...

...Dire predictions have been voiced that if Anwar Sadat's December initiative completely fails, the Egyptian President will either be ousted, or will have to spectacularly revive the "war option...

...If it wants to remain a Superpower and the leader of the Western world, it must regain its energy independence...

...yet they were not anticipated by many of those whom they most concern...

...A GLOBAL SURVEY The Troubling Summer of '78 BY Eliahu Salpeter Brussels There are times when history seems to accelerate, compressing into a brief period a multitude of events, and thereby affording us a better perspective on the shape of the future...

...In Italy, the murder of former Prime Minister Aldo Moro by the Red Brigades and the forced resignation of President Giovanni Leone, accused of corruption, have deepened the average citizen's feeling that the Christian Democratic government can assure neither economic stability, nor citizen security, nor a functioning administrative machinery...

...By far the most important issue to be resolved, though, relates to the nuclear race between the two Superpowers...

...The summer of 1978 may go down as one such period in our decade...

...He had to be helped by his host, Chancellor Helmut Schmidt...

...It may-for the first time in earnest-face Israel with the option of either waging war perpetually or trusting its fate to the good will of the surrounding Arabs, who (as events in Lebanon have repeatedly demonstrated) are not a particularly tolerant bunch...

...One of the most memorable glimpses into the situation was given to millions of European television viewers during Leonid I. Brezhnev's recent Bonn visit...

...The Soviet Union is thus faced with three unpleasant choices: compelling Castro to act against his will...

...and in Europe...

...But the issue of nuclear arms, on which the very existence of life on earth may depend, would be handled separately...

...For Saudi petro-power, although greatly exaggerated by America's fears, is a mirror reflecting the total failure of the Ford and Carter Administrations to come to grips with the deepening U.S...

...The course taken may settle not only the outcome of the struggle in the Horn of Africa but also the limits Eliahu Salpeter is currently European correspondent of Ha'aretz...

...On the European scene, several recent developments have offered an unpleasant foretaste of the turmoil that promises to dominate the months ahead...

...On the principle of "my enemy's enemy is my friend," Moscow is supporting Hanoi, while Peking is backing Phnom Penh...

...In Jerusalem itself, the coming "moment of truth" could involve much more than a contest between the "hawks" and the "doves," between Begin and his Labor opposition...

...the latest aggravation of the perennial Middle East crisis...

...and Saudi Arabia shows no sign of cooling...

...In the Soviet Union, the crackdown on dissidents and the harsh sentences meted out to Anatoly Shcharansky, Aleksandr Ginzburg and others suggest two things...

...This makes it virtually inevitable that Callaghan will have to call for general elections then, and the latest round of economic setbacks suggest that Labor's revived hopes of victory are somewhat less than justified...

...or becoming an open participant in the fighting...

...But the retrogression can also be traced to the uncertainties of the forthcoming leadership change in the Kremlin...

...the increasingly unstable economic and political situation in Europe...

...As unemployment rises and production stagnates despite efforts to restore economic growth, several members are applying pressure to introduce more of the thinly-disguised protectionist measures already being erected around steel, shipbuilding and some sections of the textile industry...

...Politicians and political scientists in the United States and Israel may argue for a long time to come about whether the Senate would have approved the deal without the dramatic public relations impact of Sadat's Jerusalem visit, on the one hand, and the dismal image of Prime Minister Menachem Begin and his policies, on the other...

...Germany, in return, would stimulate its economy...

...This has accelerated political realignments in Southeast Asia...

...The friendship, begun several years ago, attained respectability only with the May sale of ultra-modern F-16 jets to Riyadh...

...To take the last first, the mistakes of the Nixon-Ford-Kissinger era-culminating in Cuban troops being allowed to force the pro-Soviet Agos-tinho Neto regime on newly-independent Angola-have been compounded by the influence of UN Ambassador Andrew Young on the Carter Administration's African policy...

...Yet when the recriminations are over, the West, and the U.S...

...The industrialized West, meanwhile, is engaged in a huge effort to save Zaire's economy...

...of the Kremlin's rule over the more distant of its satellites...

...And the next opec meeting could well show that selling billions of dollars worth of modern arms to the Arabs can be, at best, a stopgap measure for the U.S...

...In either case, Israel will be widely blamed for "not responding sufficiently" to the opportunity offered, and relations between Washington and Jerusalem will almost certainly reach a new low...

...Second, that the shifting East-West military balance has heightened the arrogance of Soviet rulers...