The (Sorry) State of NATO

...Indeed, one has the impression that some here see the Kremlin's dissident troubles as a good reason for downgrading the notion of a Communist threat to Western Europe...

...But its conclusions are not radically different from those of Alexander Haig and his associates, who note that although nato's nuclear superiority remains convincing enough to discourage a conventional thrust, present trends are rapidly whittling away at the margin of deterrence...

...The AW ACS battle provides an excellent case study of the many ailments undermining Western Europe's vaunted shield against Soviet aggression...

...found reassurance in the conviction that the statistical strength of Moscow's forces was counterbalanced by the qualitative advantages of Western arms...

...faithfulness to the tank venture...

...Nevertheless, the argument ran, Europe's lack of conventional capability would pretty much force a nuclear response from Washington in the event of a localized Soviet offensive...

...Given the proximity of the two Germanies and the desirability of assuring maximum possible response time in the event of trouble, the British General Staff strongly endorsed the proposed program...

...Unwilling to make an effort during the boom years of the *50s and '60s to match the growth of Soviet power, Europe today pleads that it is hobbled by the arrival of the lean '70s...

...RECESSION TAKES ITS TOLL The (Sorry) State of NATO BY ELIAHU SALPETER Brussels Any medium-sized international airline has a larger fleet of Boeing 707s than the 27 envisaged for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Airborne Warning and Command System (AWACS...

...Because military budgets are consistently a favorite target for Leftists and Communist parliamentarians, embattled governments are not eager nowadays to further underscore the shrinking value of their money by stressing that in real terms they are actually spending less on defense...

...With the arms gap becoming a chasm, many observers contend that the Soviets can move so quickly in Central Europe as to make a U.S...

...The proportion changes dramatically when it comes to tanks: 11,000 for nato, against the 26,-500 for the Pact...

...energy dependence and to stimulate Western European fiscal recovery may have no less an impact on the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization than the next stage of the salt talks between Washington and Moscow...

...An added attraction was the fact that the same 707s capable of peering into East Germany could replace the aging fleet of Shakletons that patrol the northeast Atlantic...

...His success, if any, must be one of the best kept secrets of the alliance...

...For besides playing a crucial command coordination role they would enable the allies to "see" some 200 miles into Warsaw Pact territory, extending by that distance the warning margin available in case of an attack...

...But in recent months Washington seemed to backtrack on the original agreement —giving the British the opening for their solo move and prompting Bonn to hint that its participation in AWACS may depend on U.S...

...Most members of the Western alliance, in the effort to demonstrate they are not oblivious to the current state of affairs, point to their expanded defense budgets...

...its Atlantic allies 3.6 per cent (down from 3.8 in 1975...

...One result of this is that military superiority has been shifting from the West to the Communist bloc, nato has 2,960 combat aircraft, compared to 3,300 for the Warsaw Pact forces...

...It would make more sense, they argue, for West Germany to spend the money it would have to kick in to the system?presumed to be roughly $700 million—on additional fighter planes and tanks...

...And one would have to be more naive to think Moscow would prefer strong Gaullist or Christian-Democratic governments to French and Italian regimes including the Communists...

...Defense Minister Georg Leber has been among the more enthusiastic supporters of the AWACS...

...tary positions on the issues are somewhat reversed...

...The 1973-74 oil price hikes produced the economic climate responsible for the mood that now prevails in Europe...

...The rate of Soviet Union tank construction already far surpasses America's, and nato Commander in Chief General Alexander Haig recently disclosed in London that within three years an incredible 4,000 tanks will roll off Russian assembly lines annually...

...Studies such as the one by Belgian General Robert Close, predicting that the enemy could advance to the Rhine within 48 hours, may exaggerate the gravity of the situation...

...In 1976 the United States devoted 5.9 per cent of its GNP to defense...

...London's political leaders, however, have different priorities...

...Equally important are the differences between the European members themselves...

...The 27 aircraft, each topped by a huge antenna capsule and crammed with electronic detection and communication equipment, would alleviate some of the worrying...

...Granted that there is some justification to the claim, it is nonetheless quite obvious that the Europeans could afford to step up defense spending...

...The dangerous effects Of the economic recession-inflation on nato reflect, in a disturbing way, present psychological and political conditions on the Continent...

...Yet after 18 months of bickering, officials of the Western alliance have failed to reach an agreement on sharing the cost of what has been presented as its most ambitious joint procurement project...

...So when executives from the Hawker-Siddeley corporation maintained that production of their newly-developed Comet-based Nimrod plane would create anywhere from 7,000-20,000 jobs, the Labor government lent an attentive ear and decided to go it alone if necessary...

...For the social crisis brought on by money problems has weakened the will, if not the ability, of Western European countries to allocate the funds needed to maintain an adequate defense...

...In prosperous West Germany and oil-rich Norway defense accounted for 3.4 and 3 per cent of GNP respectively, whereas inflation-ridden Britain and impoverished Portugal allocated 5.1 and 4.2 per cent...

...The roots at the trouble lie deeper, though, in the interrelated processes of economic recession, parsimony and political divisiveness, both within and beyond the borders of the members...

...Of course, it has been recognized that the bigger the gap in conventional armaments, the lower the threshold at which nato would have to resort to atomic weapons to stop Kremlin aggression on the Continent—and the lower the threshold the less the credibility of nuclear deterrence...

...atomic response unreasonable...

...It has also led to unstable Western governments, and in the worst instances could bring about Communist entry into the administrations of two of the most important nato countries...

...Even in France, where military expenditures went up 17 per cent in 1976, inflation ate up 8 per cent...

...It was agreed long ago that when the time came for a new generation of nato tanks, they would be manufactured on both sides of the Atlantic and incorporate the latest German and American technology...

...Yet Britain's 2.5 per cent increase last year, for example, was reduced to meaningless-ness by a 16 per cent inflation rate...

...Still, there is no doubt that opec's continuing extortion of the West, sustained by such old-time Moscow-haters as Iran and Saudi Arabia, serves the Soviets' interest more than any policy they or their allies could possibly dream up...

...But it would be as naive to believe that Berlinguer represents his whole party as to forget the opposite view on nato membership held by his French counterpart, Georges Marohais...

...The outgoing Chairman of the nato Defense Committee, Admiral Sir Peter Hill-Norton, tried to remedy the situation somewhat by turning his farewell visits to member capitals into a campaign for better cooperation and increased defense spending...

...It is convinced (with good cause) that many of the Leopard's features, such as the engine and the drive gear, are superior to those on the American XM-1...

...Ironically, this makes agreement on the most suitable and cost-efficient systems, and on joint productions, difficult to reaoh...

...Moreover, their total price, about $2.4 billion spread over several years, is considerably less than 1 percent of the member nation's combined annual military budgets...

...But his generals disagree with their British colleagues about the value of the additional warning time where the opposing sides are so close in any event...

...Today, there is an altered perspective on that matter...

...As for those Western reinforcements from across the Atlantic, they will have difficulty getting by the Soviet submarine fleet, the world's largest and still growing...

...The vulnerability of the central part of the Continent—particularly of West Germany—to enemy troops massed in East Germany and to medium-range missiles is one of nato's chief concerns...

...Since the Soviets turn out materiel in big batches, in a sudden attack their new and abundant equipment could prove more effective than the older weaponry that forms the backbone of Western Europe's defenses...

...Thus national pride, industrial lobbying and plain bureaucratic asininity have been responsible for a significant portion of nato's present dilemmas...

...The preoccupation with unemployment and diminishing purchasing power has sharply reduced the number of people concerned with, or conscious of, the possibility of Soviet aggression...

...True, nato military research and development is considerably ahead of what the Communists can point to...

...The West, though, merely has the potential to turn out highly-advanced armaments...

...For economic as well as technological reasons, Germany now wants its Leopard 2 tank to be adopted...

...And as weapons grow in sophistication, they also become more expensive...

...At 10 Downing Street unemployment is the main headache...

...On the sidelines, meanwhile, a public relations miniwar reminiscent of the classical interservice rivalries at the Pentagon continues, complete with ammunition supplied by the competing military-industrial complexes...

...In Bonn the civilian and miliEliahu Salpeter is currently European correspondent of Ha'aretz...

...The French government, for instance, was able to augment capital outlays in the defense budget by a mere 1.5 per cent...

...A similar ratio obtains in the case of men under arms in Europe: 1.2 million to 1.3 million...

...But the apparently small difference acquires much greater significance if one remembers that Western troop reinforcements would in large part have to cross the ocean from the United States, while Soviet backup manpower would have to travel a scant few hundred miles on the ground...

...Unfortunately, this is outweighed by three telling considerations: First, except for West Germany and France, the nominal increases have been offset by inflation...

...7.5 per cent went to maintenance...

...And here what makes matters even worse is the relationship of the figures to the Soviet strategic concept of massive armored attack on the one hand, and its arms production patterns on the other...

...And at an end-of-March nato defense ministers' meeting the British, pushing their own plane, pulled out of the scheme entirely, gravely endangering its implementation...

...Given these circumstances, it is perhaps not too farfetched to say that what President Carter does to reduce U.S...

...For many years Europe and the U.S...

...if it produces them at all, it does so in limited numbers...

...One may (almost) accept, too, the Italian Communist leaders' declarations that they are interested in their country's continued nato participation...

...To be sure, it can be persuasively maintained that the Kremlin is unhappy with the rise of Eurocommunism...

...Another source of nato security, the American nuclear umbrella, no longer affords the protection it once did either...

...In addition, the 2,000 tank transporters that have been spotted in East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Poland indicate that Moscow is increasing its ability to move its huge tank force swiftly, independent of railroad lines...

...The USSR likewise builds over 1,000 war-planes per year, so in this area too, a small gap can be expected to widen...

...There is an industrial aspect to the attitude in Germany, too, although again unlike the British situation it is a question of quid pro quo rather than direct competition...

...It would be paranoid to declare them a cunning Kremlin conspiracy...

...Finally, as has been amply demonstrated by the AWACS and Leopard 2 controversies, the economic recession is exacerbating the competition among the military industries of member states...

...Not even the dramatic revival of popular support for human rights in the Communist countries has translated into a willingness to spend more time, effort and money on defense...

...Now there are signs that this lead is being eroded as well—by the same penny-pinching that is causing the growing quantitative lag...

...Secondly, the lion's share of added funds must be used for operating costs, leaving very little for modernization of weapons systems...

...He made a point of meeting with the finance ministers and influential legislators...