The Threat to Israel's Security
MORGENTHAU, HANS J.
INDEFENSIBLE BORDERS The Threat to Israel's Security by HANS J. MORGENTHAU Israel lives because it has been able to maintain itself against those who have tried to destroy it. It owes something to...
...A bargain falling short of this result would not be accepted by the Arab states...
...To suit American policy, a peace settlement must meet three requirements: the satisfaction of Arab aspirations, the chance for Israel to preserve itself in the midst of hostile Arab states, and the maintenance of a balance of power between Israel and the Arab states...
...Take, as one example among many, the operations and report of the United Nations Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestine People, established by the 1976 General Assembly at the instigation of the PLO...
...True, unlike fanatics and lunatics, nations do not allow goals incapable of attainment to misdirect their foreign policies for any length of time...
...The substitution of legal recognitions and promises for tangible military advantages is likely to be the main weapon friends of the Arabs, and even well-meaning but unwitting friends of Israel within the American government, will use to bring Israel to terms...
...It has survived because it demonstrated that it could not be destroyed...
...but to pursue a policy that actually serves this purpose...
...These voices have been, as it were, very moderate in their moderation, and they have fallen far short of accepting Israel as a legitimate member of the community of nations...
...Once Israel is reduced to an indefensible blot on the map, however, the temptation to administer Hans J. Morgenthau, a frequent NL contributor, is University Professor of Political Science at the New School for Social Research...
...The simultaneous fulfillment of these requirements would tax the ability of a Kissinger and is probably beyond the ken of his successors...
...History shows that such guarantees do not withstand the pressure of contrary national interests...
...At home, unyielding animosity is the order of the day...
...It is therefore both futile and misleading to listen anxiously for voices of "moderation" from Arab heads of state, let alone the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO...
...Imagine another Middle Eastern war following a settlement that has left a weakened Israel depending upon great-power guarantees...
...They are free, and will be encouraged by the Soviet Union, to reex-change these cards when they have concluded that the American is no better than the Russian one...
...Since the establishment of the State of Israel, a group within the State Department, now strengthened by backing from the military and influential sectors of public opinion, has endeavored to check and, if possible, undermine, the Presidential support for Israel...
...After this is accomplished, the next step is a matter of logical necessity...
...Nevertheless, Arab speakers praised its mildness and even "magnanimity," dismissing its call for the dismemberment of Israel as a "linguistic nuance...
...Moreover, the rhetoric addressed to the Western world differs significantly, in tone as well as substance, from what the Arab leaders are telling their own peoples...
...The scales might indeed tilt toward peace, the peace of the cemetery, if Israel were weakened to the extent that it was unable to defend itself...
...On the one hand, the United States has supported Israel politically, economically and militarily to the point where its existence has been assured...
...In other words, long before Henry Kissinger started to become the advocate of Arab interests in Jerusalem as he was the advocate of Israeli interests in the Arab capitals, the United States was pursuing an "evenhanded" policy in the Middle East, assuring the survival of Israel and preventing it from becoming the military master of the region...
...Secondly, also always lurking in the background is the ability of the oil-producing Arab states to impose another oil embargo...
...It is the check that in this game of bluffs and counterbluffs, threats and counterthreats, remains firmly in the hands of the Arab states...
...Is it likely that these guarantors of the status quo will take up arms on behalf of Israel against its Arab neighbors...
...This stark and simple reality not only explains the history of the State of Israel but also foreshadows its future...
...If this analysis is correct, then the much-discussed present and future intentions of those neighbors are irrelevant...
...Since Israel cannot be forced militarily to retreat from defensible frontiers, it must be induced to do so by diplomatic pressure—backed by world public opinion so-called, especially as manifested in the United Nations...
...Finally, although President Jimmy Carter's statements in support of Israel have been as emphatic as those of his predecessor, the new Administration does not, any more than President Ford's did, present a united front on behalf of Israel...
...If they were to move toward recognition of Israel's legitimacy as a sovereign nation, they would be condemned out of their own mouths as traitors to the Arab cause...
...For when Israel is no longer able to defend itself, it will be at the mercy of its Arab neighbors...
...It owes nothing to United Nations resolutions or the preferences of the great powers...
...The government of Egypt, certainly, cannot be insensitive to the likelihood that a fifth such attempt at the elimination of Israel will end in still another failure...
...It should be noted in passing that current speculations about Russian intentions similarly miss the point...
...The recent maneuvering to cancel the sale of concussion bombs to Israel, at the center of which appears to have operated the National Security Advisor to the President, continues an old tradition: If you cannot stymie a policy through head-on opposition, manipulate its executors in such a wav as to frustrate their policy by making it appear you are actually supporting them...
...It is obvious that in this scheme of things the United States occupies a key role...
...Israel will be legally guaranteed what it has to give up in reality: the security of its future...
...They are likely to be concerned more with legal documents recognizing the right of Israel to exist, or at the very least not expressly denying that right, than with Israel's military security...
...That is the crucial issue of the pre-conference negotiations: How much can Israel afford to concede to the Arabs without jeopardizing its very survival...
...The best that can be expected is a cessation of the state of war—that is, an ill-defined, precarious, intermediate stage between peace and war...
...Their position in this respect is very much like ours...
...And even if the answer to that questions were in the affirmative, military aid would be too late to save the status quo...
...And failure to bring it about would conjure up two consequences that in different ways would put in jeopardy the wider interests of the United States...
...The likelihood of such a development, though, is remote...
...Both of us are at present satisfied with equality, for that is the best both of us can get...
...How thin the veneer of Arab moderation actually is can be measured, too...
...The Arabs have abandoned their objective of driving the Israelis into the sea because it has proved to be beyond their capability...
...For just as the Arabs have chosen for the time being to pursue their ends through diplomacy because they have found it too risky to challenge Israel militarily again, so they will choose peaceful coexistence with Israel if they find this to be their only rational choice...
...In these circumstances, Israel will be asked to give up territories essential for its defense in exchange for assurances recognizing its new, indefensible frontiers as inviolate...
...This would greatly embarrass the United States and could plausibly threaten the ruin of some of its allies...
...That is clear from the deeply ingrained and frequently murderous hatred which traditionally marked Arab treatment of the Jewish population of Palestine, long before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948...
...Consequently, the Arab states have chosen diplomacy as the continuation of warfare by other means in order to achieve their ultimate goal: the destruction of the state of Israel...
...the coup de grace will be irresistible...
...In particular, one ought to watch out for the effort to change defensible frontiers guaranteed by Israel's military might for indefensible frontiers guaranteed by the United States either alone or in concert with other powers...
...by the ceaseless anti-Israeli propaganda the Arab states indulge in within and outside the United Nations...
...The threat of another embargo does not need to be articulated...
...The frontline Arab states have consciously exchanged the American for the Russian card...
...More particularly, it is responsible for the change in Arab strategy that, at least for the time being, has moved the focus of the Middle Eastern conflict from the battlefield toward the conference table...
...But more will be expected from Washington in the negotiations now planned...
...But this does not preclude either of us from welcoming superiority if there were a way to achieve it...
...On the other hand, it has intervened in the four Middle Eastern wars to save the Arab states from complete military collapse...
...The report questioned retroactively the legality of the 1947 partition that officially created Israel, and hence the Jewish State's right to exist...
...It is of course apparent, in spite of disclaimers to the contrary, that Western dependence on Arab oil weakens the hand of the United States in negotiations with the Arab states...
...Thus to be serious about the survival of Israel means not only to indulge in the rhetoric paying homage to it...
...There is only one standard by which this question can be answered: the preservation of adequate military power...
...The Arab leaders have been emphatic in denying the possibility of peace with Israel in this generation, regardless of the concessions Israel might offer...
...It owes something to aid received from the United States and to support from Jews throughout the world...
...The reappearance of the Soviet Union as an active factor in the Middle East, hostile to Israel, would not only ruin all attempts at a negotiated settlement but would also place new emphasis upon the alternative, always lurking ominously in the background, of war...
...The then United States Ambassador, William Scran-ton, declared the report "unfair," "senseless" and "totally devoid of balance, with conclusions that are unworkable and recommendations which prejudge the outcome of negotiations...
...it is inherent in the objective situation...
...Its position has from the outset been self-contradictory...
...Are the Russians satisfied with nuclear equality, or do they aim at superiority...
...But when what appeared to be unattainable yesterday becomes attainable today, intention will follow opportunity...
...Had either prevailed, Israel would no longer be around...
...The shift is due to the experience of four defeats in war suffered by the frontline Arab states...
...The bifurcation of Arab propaganda would make it extremely difficult for the Arab governments to embark upon a policy of conciliation and compromise vis a vis Israel...
Vol. 60 • March 1977 • No. 6
