A New Political Season in France

...How deep...

...TROUBLE ON THE LEFT A New Political Season in France by norman jacobs "La rentree," a French word with no exact English equivalent, marks the resumption of normal activity after the August vacation lull that every year brings much of this country to a standstill In 1977, though, France's two rival political formations took no holiday Throughout the long, cool summer party leaders labored to resolve internal conflicts They were preparing for a campaign that culminates in Parliamentary elections next March and was expected to determine whether the Left or Right would control the National Assembly and run the government Ironically, the result of all their efforts has been to make a clear outcome far less likely than it was before Last spring, after crushing its opposition in nationwide municipal balloting, the Union of the Left (a coalition of Socialists (PS), Communists (PCF) and Left Radicals) seemed to most observers on its way to inevitable triumph in the legislatives Since then, the three parties have become embroiled in a bitter controversy over their Common Program—the charter they signed in 1972 and were in the process of revising as the platform they would be pledged to put into effect when negotiations broke down early in the morning of September 23 Meanwhile, the governing Center-Right coalition (of Gaulhsts, Giscard-lsts, and two smaller groups) has had somewhat better luck It has managed to patch up its differences and reach a relatively amicable accord on a campaign manifesto Despite this turn of events, however, it would be a mistake to rule the Left, particularly the increasingly popular Socialists, out of the picture altogether France is at present experiencing its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the '30s Inflation hovers at around 10 per cent annually, and an unemployment rate of well over 5 per cent has sent nearly 1 2 million people looking for work?the highest number in the country's history These grim statistics would be enough to shake any incumbent government's hold on power But other, longer-range forces are also operating to the Left's advantage One of the foremost, again in the economic sphere, is as old as the French Revolution A rallying cry in that struggle was egalite, and a series of recent authoritative reports has documented what every Frenchman suspects that his is possibly the most Norman Jacobs, long associated with the NL, recently retired as editor of the Foreign Policy Association inequalitanan of the industrial democracies in the distribution of wages, income and accumulated wealth To boot, the government relies on a highly regressive method of indirect taxation to collect over 50 per cent of its tax revenues The system weighs heaviest on the poor, feeding their sense of grievance According to some estimates, tax cheating by businessmen, professionals, farmers, and others deprives the government of as many francs as the income tax annually brings m Since employers are required by law to report all wages to the government, workers find it more difficult to cheat, and they deeply resent having to carry a disproportionate share of the tax burden while those better off and better able to pay are evading their responsibility Unjust as the structure of French society is, it should be observed that in absolute terms the worker's lot has improved dramatically during the last 20 years He has enjoyed steady increases in real wages and the protection of indexed pensions, comprehensive medical care and welfare benefits most Americans would envy Unfortunately for the present government, in this age where television shows all, the French citizen's satisfaction with his circumstances is less a function of his own worldly possessions than those of his neighbor's which he cannot afford Thus the commitment of the Left to redeem the French Revolution's egalitarian promise is among the most powerful sources of its popular appeal Another force pulling in the same direction can be summed up in the familiar phrase, "time for a change After nearly two decades of rule by Gaullist-dominated majorities, many French citizens want a change at almost any price—even that of Communist participation in the government In their campaigns tor the Presidency in the '60s, Charles de Gaulle and his successor, Georges Pompidou, skillfully exploited the menace ot Communism, offering the electorate "me 01 chaos " Incumbent President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who succeeded Pompidou, employed similar tactics in the 1974 race with diminishing impact Giscard barely squeaked through to victory over Socialist party leader Francois Mitterand, the Union of the Left's candidate Although the Center-Right continues to exploit the politics of polarization, given the country's mood, it could now very possibly boomerang Certainly the Socialists, running independently, would be the beneficiaries of the widespread desire for change And should the Union of the Left somehow reunite by March, it would probably benefit as well For fewer and fewer Frenchmen appear reluctant to vote for a slate that includes Communists This reflects the growing disposition to regard the PCF as simply another "normal" party, not a band of revolutionaries plotting violence or the branch office of an international conspiracy directed by Moscow The shift in attitude, in turn, is testimony to the considerable success ot the party's efforts to alter its image In recent years, PCF spokesmen have denounced Stalin's crimes, the Kremlin's intervention in Czechoslovakia and Soviet treatment of dissidents Rejecting the principle of proletarian internationalism, they have further asserted their right to formulate foreign policy, party tactics and strategy On the domestic front, the PCF has attempted to persuade the public it can be trusted to play by the rules of democratic politics in the event that the Union of the Left came to power It has abandoned the slogan of dictatorship of the proletariat, stressed its pursuit of a nonviolent road to socialism, agreed to accept the verdict of the electorate if, after gaining office, the Left was voted out, and repeatedly proclaimed its support of political democracy, cultural pluralism and the liberties they presuppose Nonetheless, as the breakdown of the Union "summit" to update the Common Program suggests, serious doubts about the depth of the Communist leadership's conversion persist It is noted that the party continues to insist the Soviet Union provides an authentic model of socialism in practice, that it generally gives unwavering support to Soviet foreign policy, and that in the conduct of its internal affairs, it still operates like a monolith, affirming its allegiance to the principle of democratic centralism Moreover, in launching the controversy over the Common Program, by pressing for revision and then making demands that they knew went beyond what the Socialists could accept, the Communists assumed their old posture ot ideological righteousness, strengthening the concern that they would make short shritt of any opponents should they ever manage to come to power on their own Against the background ol uncertainty about ultimate Communist intentions, the rebirth ot the Socialist party in this counties where being "ol the Lett" cames significant political weight is ot special—albeit at the moment not clearly specified—importance In the 1969 Presidential contest the Socialists touched bottom, their candidate polling barely 5 per cent of the popular vote, and the party seemed finished as a major political force But after a difficult period of transition that saw Mitterand finally rise to leadership, the party has experienced a renaissance Winning back former supporters and attracting many new ones, the PS has established itself in recent elections as the leading political party in the nation, consistently garnering 30 per cent of the vote It was the turnabout in Socialist fortunes under Mitterand that raised the now divided Union of the Left's chances for victory in next year's National Assembly elections For he is universally respected, and many French citizens who are still reluctant to vote for a government with Communist participation seemed willing to take the risk so long as the SP was the senior partner and a reassuring figure like Mitterand was in charge The assumption was that if the Communists tried to revert to type once the Left achieved power, the Socialist leader would hold them in check and prevent any serious harm from coming to the Republic Interestingly, France's keenest political analyst, Raymond Aran, questioned that assumption In the Union relationship, Aron saw the Socialists as less successful in winning Communists over to an appreciation of the merits of social democracy than the Communists were in infecting Socialists with the Leninist bacillus Aron feared that an ongoing radicalization of the SP would impose serious constraints on Mitterand's maneuverability in the event of a Union takeover, and could lead to a Socialist split that would benefit the Communists most of all Similar thoughts may have contributed to Mitterand's finally drawing the line on PCF leader George Marchais In any event, even if the Union of the Left somehow manages to paper over its differences, and even with the economic, political and social tides flowing its way, its chances for victory may well have been wiped out by the heated animosities that have marked the Common Program dispute The surface issues of the controversy revolve around three questions about the proposed changes How much'' How fast...

...More specifically, after the Left comes to power, should it raise family allowances by 50 per cent or 25 per cent...

...Should it increase the monthly minimum wage for a 40-hour week to $490 or to $4509 Should it tax fortunes over $200,000 or over $400,0009 Should it nationalize 729 of France's leading industrial enterprises or only 227 of them...

...In each case, of course, it is the Communists who advocate the more radical proposal As the Socialists see it, the Communists want too much too soon, and would involve the government too deeply in running the economy The Socialists are convinced that the Communists' prescriptions would bring down the French economy with a case of galloping inflation And they believe that long before this happened, President Gis-card, whose term in office does not end until 1981, would exercise his constitutional power to dissolve the Assembly and call for new elections These would almost certainly result in a crushing defeat for the Left and its banishment to the political wilderness for years thereafter Yet the seriousness of the Common Program controversies notwithstanding, they are not in themselves sufficient to account for the ill will and suspicions that have been engendered between Communists and Socialists More responsible than any single issue for opening and widening the breach has been the tone used by the Communists in voicing their views Socialist spokesmen had lately been complaining that the Communists treat them as if they were the class enemy instead of partners in a common struggle, and in the abortive negotiations the PCF reportedly went so far as to demand the right to veto the policies of any government it might join The aggressiveness displayed by the Communists has led some analysts to speculate they were seeking a pretext for breaking up the Union of the Left and going their own way This is admittedly possible, but I think other explanations are perhaps more likely The party made simply too great a commitment to the alliance during the past five years to risk being held responsible for disrupting it just when victory seemed within reach A more plausible explanation of the tough stand is that the PCF, troubled about the PS passing it by at the polls to become France's leading party, sought to demonstrate that it intended to be an equal partner in the Union In addition, the Communists were bent on committing the Socialists to a program of radical reforms from which there could be no turning back, and which would foreclose any subsequent possibility of Socialist cooperation with reformist Center parties Finally, the deeper the Communists could involve the Left in government control and operation of the economy, the harder it would be, should the Left be ousted from office, for France to return to a freer economy and for Communist functionaries to be dislodged from strategic positions of power Whatever the PCF's motives, certainly it could not have expected the dramatic walkout of the Left Radicals from the summit meeting of the Union of the Left on September 14 Until then, Mitterand, Marchais and Left Radical leader Robert Fabre were making slow but steady progress in resolving points of contention, and the congenial atmosphere at the conference table seemed to presage ultimate accord To be sure, Fabre had been on record as firmly opposing the Communist desire to increase the scope of nationalization envisaged in the original 1972 Common Program Indeed, he had repeatedly called for eliminating a sentence stating that if the workers wished to nationalize a given enterprise, the government should have the option of proposing this to the National Assembly Fabre had denounced the approach as opening the way to a system of "nationalization a la carte " But the Socialists were equally opposed to the Communist proposals, and throughout the months before the meeting the Left Radicals had more or less watched from the sidelines as the two battled Siding with the Socialists on almost all disputed issues, they seemed content to let Mitterand lead the light against Marchais Consequently, when they walked out, it suddenly seemed that the tail was wagging the dog—vital as the 2-3 per cent of the electorate the Left Radicals command is to any possible Left coalition victory It turned out, of course, that Fabre's move, while spectacular, was merely a preface to the real breakup For on September 21, after the Left Radical leader had been pacified by some minor Communist concessions, and the summit had reconvened, a new impasse over nationalization swiftly developed, this time between the Communists and the Socialists Agreement proved impossible, and early the next morning, amidst bitter charges and countercharges, the Union of the Left foundered and broke apart In contrast with the Left, the Center-Right coalition has had a relatively easy time reaching agreement—at least on a manifesto stating broad goals and endorsing the values of a free society But the parties in the formation have been unable to agree on a campaign document with specific planks, and each plans to often its own platform to voters in the March Assembly contest At stake here is leadership of the alliance The Gaullists, led by Jacques Chirac, mayor of Pans, have traditionally constituted the "majority of the majority" and they intend to keep it that way President Giscard, who would obviously like the situation to change, currently finds himself in the awkward and anomalous position of heading a coalition where his non-Gaulust supporters are a minority Giscard's predicament stems from his inheriting the National Assembly chosen in 1973 when he assumed office in 1974 He had the option then of calling new elections, but because that involved the risk of a victory for the Left, he decided instead to let the Assembly run its normal five-year life and to collaborate with the Gaullists Jacques Chirac, who had given him valuable support during the presidential campaign, was named prime minister Gradually, though, because of personal incompatibilities and the conservative Gaulhst's resistance to reforms Giscard wished to institute, the two men fell out Last year, the President asked for and received Chirac's resignation, in his place, he appointed Raymond Barre, a respected economist Still, Chirac remains very much in the picture True, he arouses intense feelings of dislike among many fellow opponents of the Left—such as Jean Jacques Servan-Schreiber, who refused to associate his Radical party with the Center-Right coalition's manifesto Yet the Mayor is a tough, dynamic and intelligent leader, and the prospects are that the Gaullists would retain their place in a victorious Center-Right coalition That is, if Giscard doesn't join forces with Mitterand to form a Center-Left coalition Or, if the Union ot the Left does not miraculously come together and prove credible at the polls Or it the Socialists, even more miraculously, do not score strongly enough in March to form a minority government In short, French politicians may not have stopped to notice the passing ol summer, but for French politics this is a new season, too...