The Carter Strategy in Africa

...British intelligence sources estimate the current white population at about 150,000?0 per cent of what it was less than a decade ago...

...three of the remaining 15 have Moslem presidents...

...They get along with Africans much better than Russians do, and they are more "African" in their beer-swilling camaraderie than the ascetic Chinese...

...This invasion is unpopular throughout Africa, and especially with Morocco's neighbor, Soviet-backed Algeria?America's main future source of foreign natural gas...

...cannot supply better than the Soviet Union...

...Washington is likely to similarly disengage itself from support of Morocco's bid for a Berber Empire in phosphate-rich Spanish Sahara...

...The Cubans are in a sense the Soviet Union's political Gurkhas, except that they are often difficult to control...

...Russell Warren Howe, a regular NL Contributor is co-author of the recently published The Power Peddlers...

...The weakness in the new U.S...

...Those with long experience in the area know that any similarities between an entire country and a ghetto are superficial...

...A new Zaire government, it is hoped, will remember not only that the U.S...

...Persuading large numbers of whites to stay on would simply prolong frictions and fuel antiwhite sentiments...

...Apparently they see parallels between Salisbury and Atlanta, between the South and South Africa...

...But no one any longer assumes that this can be accomplished only by condemning resistance movements in settler countries, or by insisting on Western-style parliamentary democracies and unrestricted free enterprise...

...Andrew Young, in his brash fashion, has been declaring that Africa needs the U.S., and a significant number of its leaders have openly agreed with him that there is little the Third World requires that the U.S...

...Seventeen of the 32 African countries north of the Equator have Moslem majorities...

...With the failure of the U.S.British presentation in Salisbury last month, the exodus is likely to accelerate...

...Peking has been more successful than Moscow in discreetly making and keeping the friendship of the African governments on or near the Indian Ocean, notably Tanzania, Zambia and Mozambique...

...The Administration's "Rhodesia plan," for example, includes a development fund contingent upon Zimbabwe granting permanent constitutional rights to Europeans, and guaranteeing them representation in the legislature, even though they will number far less than 1 per cent of the population...

...needs Africa for many major and rare minerals, particularly replacement minerals, and as a source of UN votes...

...Nevertheless, Moscow still has a card up its sleeve: the black and mulatto Cubans...

...Perhaps the most refreshingly pragmatic aspect of the Carter Administration's African strategy is its breezy unconcern with the ideologies of individual states...

...Young, in turn, concedes that the U.S...

...Carter's Africanists have declined to get excited about the renewed Shaba (formerly Katanga) secession attempt, apparently persuaded it will eventually succeed in any case...

...Finally, it offers a unifying framework of national discipline, highly attractive to presidents and prime ministers...

...Moreover, as Young has observed to the consternation of his critics, their very presence in such countries as Angola and Ethiopia seems to blunt the chronic trend toward chaos that best serves the Soviets...

...approach to Africa is Carter's and Young's romantic demand, in the face of contrary expert advice, that the southern Africa solution must be "multiracial...

...It is a deliverance from the tyranny of the witch-doctors and, unlike Christianity, it is not white...

...The name of the game remains what it was in John F. Kennedy's time—to try to "deny Africa to the Communists...

...The high incidence of settlers in southern Africa has retarded political progress there compared to the rest of the continent...

...As the religious Jimmy Carter has doubtless learned from his study papers, the majority of Africans are immeasurably more preoccupied with metaphysics and religion than with political thought...

...The Soviets are naturally eager to capitalize on the present uncertainties, too, but in addition to competition from the Americans they have to contend with the Chinese...

...In short, current U.S...

...Experience has shown that trying to insure genuinely Marxist or Western governments in Africa is like trying to pinch mercury...

...policy is geared to taking advantage of the fact that the first generation of African independence is ending in an atmosphere of continent-wide discontent: Many countries are up for grabs internally as well as in their foreign relations...

...Islam apparently overcomes tribal divisions and distrust with greater ease than any dictated party line...

...built up Mobutu, but that it did not try to preserve him when he proved a disaster...

...Over a quarter of all black Africans are now Moslems, nearly double the 1960 ratio...

...A REFRESHING PRAGMATISM The Carter Strategy in Africa BY RUSSELL WARREN HOWE Washington Guerrilla warfare in Rhodesia and Namibia, ur-bah violence and the possible existence of atomic weapons in South Alnca, and fast-moving events in the Horn of Africa would have moved that continent onto the State Department's front burner even if Gerald Ford had been elected President Under Jimmy Carter, however, the United States' Africa policy has taken on a new coloration as well as a new importance Not only does UN Ambassador Andrew Young have an office at the State Department—making him the number two man in the Foggy Bottom hierarchy, behind Secretary Cyrus Vance—but the head of the whole seventh-floor policy-planning staff is now an Africanist, Anthony Lake of the Carnegie Endowment Africa policy also has acquired greater importance on Capitol Hill Thanks to the energetic and imaginative leadership of Chairman Dick Clark (D -Iowa), the Senate Africa subcommittee is undergoing something ot a resurrection following years of inertia under its former chairmen The House subcommittee, still chaired bv Representative Charles Diggs (D -Mich ), has found new vigor as well after two decades ot enthusiastic yet erratic performance Broadly speaking, in recent decades the United States has regularly looked on Africa with sympathy During the Eisenhower and Kennedy Administrations, the U S supported decolonization-not a difficult decision since Britain, the main colonial power, had grudgingly acknowledged the end of imperialism, and France's opposition to African nationalism was crumbling Opposing decolonization, moreover, meant playing into the hands of what was then considered a monolithic Communist bloc Finally, anticolomahsm was consistent with the historic ideals of the United States In the early '60s the Congo and other fiascos soured America on Africa Then Southeast Asia became this country's major Third World preoccupation, and U S African policy underwent a long period of benign neglect that was mildly advantageous to Moscow and Peking (Washington generally felt, lor instance, that no great pressure need be applied in southern Africa until the black population became a force to reckon with ) In 1974, Portugal, in the wake of its revolution, announced it would withdraw from its African colonies Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was slow to realize this would bnng down the white regimes But once violence erupted, the Kissinger machine was set in motion—for what amounted to a brilliant, fleeting moment—to regain lost time The United States is still catching up The Soviet Umon and China continue to hold the lead in the fight against the last bastions of settlerdom south of Capricorn, and widespread suspicion of covert American "imperialism" in Africa persists Yet while Moscow and Peking can deliver arms and military training, they cannot deliver a white surrender, for they are unable to negotiate with both sides Only Washington, with a little assistance from London, can perhaps do that As in the Middle East, therefore, in Africa the U S today seeks to be the "viable interlocutor " Administration spokesmen contend that, although the present white regimes are an obvious godsend to the Soviets and Chinese in the battle for the hearts and minds of Africa, this will not result in the emergence of Communist satellites once the inevitable happens and the settler front falls The future governments of Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) and Azama (South Africa) are expected to be Socialist in rhetoric and to some extent in policy, but the belief is that the Russians, at least, will be as diplomatically inept in the region as they have been in other exotic places Accordingly, analysts here offer the following scenario The U S , and secondarily Europe, will become the preferred sources of southern African financial and technical aid, with the Chinese deftly scoring by helping to set up cooperative farming and other grass-roots projects they excel at While Moscow will attempt to compete with the West in arms supplies, the new states may reject standardization to escape dependence on a single supplier In that event, they will buy combat planes from Western Europe (to avoid tangling with Congress), army assault rifles from Moscow (the AK-47 is better and cheaper than nato's M-16), tanks and other armor from top private dealer Sam Cummings (mostly obsolescent Western models), and military transport planes from the U S The obvious question raised by this optimistic view is why the Carter Administration does not merely let events take their course, as conservatives recommend Why is the President urging Andrew Young to cattleprod the British into helping cattleprod the settlers9 The answer is four-fold 1 Like most reformed white Southerners, the President has a messianic feeling for repressed blacks That was confirmed in his famous Playboy interview 2 The White House, even Vernon Jordan of the Urban League seems to have realized, cannot deliver quickly on most issues of major concern to the crucial black electorate (The Congressional Black Caucus' 10 demands are all economic, without any mention of foreign affairs) But by successfully playing the role of St George slaying the white African dragon, Carter will pluck a heartstring among black voters that no Republican Presidential candidate could match 3 US investments in South Africa are not endangered by attacking Pretoria, since it is in no position to retaliate against the "leader of the West These investments could be seized by a future black government, however, if America is not directly associated with "liberation " 4 Whenever possible, Washington tries to align its African policy with that of Nigeria, the continent's largest nation (population over 90 million) as well the second largest U S foreign oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, and our sole source of virtually sulfur-free crude More tempestuous and temperamental than pragmatic, Nigeria judges major powers almost exclusively by their perceived racial attitudes, and a black mark from it is something Washington has always sought to avoid Right-wing claims notwithstanding, strategic concerns are not a real factor in America's southern Africa policy The "Cape sea lane," 1,700 miles wide, could not be blockaded by either side, regardless of how many ships are used In the Horn, a back-door to the Middle East, the U S is challenging Moscow in a curious game of musical chairs Here, too, from Washington's point of view, defense considerations are of minor import Soviet efforts to cut Western oil supplies during a global war would probably consist of bombing wellheads and refineries, not moving huge slow fleets, World War Il-style, to close "choke points " Moscow, though, must worry about the choke points in time of peace The Soviet Union has the biggest naval headache on earth Largely land-locked, it is surrounded, except for the Eastern European glacis, to the south, the east and the west by enemies In addition, its southern egress—through the Bosphorus and Dardenelles Straits of Turkey, a nato member, and the Suez Canal—is uncertain If a new Mideast conflict closed the vulnerable canal, the Soviets' Black Sea fleet, charged with protecting their immense Indian Ocean fishing armada (the Indian Ocean is now Russia's main fishing ground), would have to sail onto station via the nato-controlled Gibraltar Straits and the long haul around the Cape The alternatives are equally daunting sending Arctic fleet ships from the Lapland border, augmenting the Baltic fleet, hence freeing ships to sail through Denmark's Skager Rak and, again, around Africa, or detaching vessels from the Pacific fleet in distant Vladivostok In the light of this situation, the Soviet Union decided a decade ago that it badly needed an Indian Ocean naval base to provide repair and revic-tuahng facilities Moscow looked to Somalia, whose price was political support for its territorial claim to Djibouti, the Ogaden and Haud regions of Ethiopia, and the Northern Frontier District (NFD) of Kenya The claim has merit, stemming from colonial-frontier anomalies Nevertheless, the U S always opposed it to avoid offending its client state, Ethiopia, its ally France (who controlled Djibouti until independence last June) and friendly Kenya Somalia easily fell into the Kremlin's embrace The Soviets proceeded to develop the Somali port of Berbera as a counterbalance to the growing Anglo-American base on Diego Garcia and the French bases on Mayotte and Reunion The latter are French islands, of course, and Diego Garcia is an almost uninhabited British Crown Colony At Berbera, the Russians invested heavily in a port and airfield yet remained at the mercy of the vicissitudes of Somali politics Despite the fragility of the Somali connection, the Marxist revolution in Ethiopia two years ago was more than the Kremlin could resist The Ethiopian Bolsheviks had even ovcithiown one of the wot Id's last lemaming Tsais' Moscow soon became Christian Ethiopia's weapons supplier, angering Ethiopia's traditional Moslem foe?Somalia A deftly-timed offer of financial assistance arrived in Mogadishu from Saudi Arabia Riyadh was prepared to cover the cost of Somalia's arms, on the condition that it no longer buy them from the Communists President Siad Barre hesitated briefly, then turned to Jimmy Carter, who agreed to replace Brezhnev in keeping Somalia as East Africa's main military power (Washington officials admit that a restriction in the U S sales offer stating that American arms may and only overpopulated state in the area, and one that will be landlocked once Eritrea is lost By contrast, the West, as planners here see it, will be the patron of Egypt, Sudan, an independent Eritrea, and Somalia—providing Barre continues downplaying his claim to pro-Western Kenya's NFD (Barre presumably hopes that when aging President Jomo Kenyatta dies, popular discontent against his venal regime, and its tribal oligarchy of the Kiambu clan of the Kikuyu, will boil over into some sort of anticapitalist At not be used for offensive war?meaning in this case, to liberate "Greater Somalia"—is virtually impossible to implement ) It can only be a matter of time before the Moslem Entreans, aided until now by Communist arms, in what appears to be a successful drive to secede from Ethiopia, follow the Somali example With the Russians currently arming and advising their "repressors" in Addis Ababa, the Entieans are almost certain to turn to the West lot weapons, perhaps with Saudi and Kuwaiti I manual backing At thai point Moscow will be left supporting the poorest most anarchic revolution, rendering Kenya less pro-Western and the NFD fair game, in America's eyes, for Somalia ) Soviet support of Ethiopia would clearly make more sense if it marked the start of an active campaign for influence in eastern and central Africa generally Instead, Moscow is involved in a waiting game in Kens a, Tanzania and Zaire, where it is looking forward to the overthrow ot dictator Mobutu Sese Seko by those who consider him an American puppet A less sophisticated Washington administration would probably take its lead from the French who are frantically propping up Mobutu with arms and money and vying for the role of chief neocolonial power in Kinshasa...

...At this stage, bruised and resentful African societies, coming to power after eras of subjection, can bring themselves to accept just a tiny fraction of highly-qualified whites in their midst, and then only in an "expatriate," nonvoting, nonpolitical capacity...

...The fastest growing force on the continent today is Islam, not socialism...

...They are also beginning to distance themselves from Mobutu, who is bound to fall shortly under the weight of his own brutality, corruption and farcical inefficiency...