Peace Prospects in Northern Ireland

...THE VIEW FROM DUBLIN Peace Prospects in Northern Ireland BY JOHN P MCCARTHY Dublin Reaction in Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland to President Jimmy Carter's August 30 pledge of U S aid to embattled Northern Ireland provided the warring Roman Catholics and Protestants can resolve their differences peacefully has been overwhelmingly favorable Indeed, the statement's failure to offend anybody, aside from rival extremists like the Reverend Ian Paisley, the Marxist "Official" Sinn Fein-Workers' party and some supporters of the Provisional wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in the United States, suggests that it probably was too mild and vague to have an immediate dramatic impact on the situation At the same time, there is no denying that Washington's expression of concern, plus the always-attractive prospect of American dollars, might at least start wheels turning in the direction of a settlement The President's initiative came hard on the heels of renewed world interest in the plight of the beleaguered province, brought about largely by the Provisional IRA's promise to provide Queen Elizabeth with "a day she would remember" during her recent Jubilee trip to Ulster The threat proved empty, but the visit itself generated criticism from moderate Catholic leaders like John Hume, who charged it was inevitably provocative and gratifying to unionist agitators The international attention again being paid to Northern Ireland has also prompted some outside observers to look for a message about Ulster in the results of the Irish Republic's national elections in June The fact is, though, that the North was one of the farthest things from the minds of most voters The campaign was fought mainly over whether the incumbents or the opposition were better equipped to halt Ireland's severe inflation and unemployment, both of them among the worst in the European Economic Community And considering the degree of Ireland's plight, it was hardly surpus-mg that the incumbents a coalition composed of the relatively consen-ative Fine Gael party and the Left-wing Labor party were trounced by the more populist Fianna Fail The erstwhile opposition had promised to boost the sagging economy with a massive program of deficit spending, government grants and projects, and tax reduction The political arm of the Provisional IRA, the "Provisional" Sinn Fein, did not participate in the election It seeks to maintain the purity of its claim to be the authentic government of the Irish people by boycotting electoral institutions that it looks upon as the tools of the illegitimate rulers Nevertheless, the party and its military arm tried to read the ouster of the Fine Gael coalition as a vote for themselves-in other words, as a rejection not only of the unseated government's traditional anti-IRA stand, but of its decidedly conciliatory air toward Great Britain and, by implication, acceptance of London's view that any alteration of Northern Ireland's link with the mother country should be effected only with the consent of a majority of Ulster's population The rebels' vicarious joy was reinforced by the defeat of two Cabinet members they particularly detested One was Minister for Justice Patrick Cooney, who had been responsible for the administration of the prisons where a great many IRA members have been incarcerated (receiving, it has been suggested, significantly less tenderness than their counterparts in the North) The other despised minister was the internationally renowned scholar-diplomat-playwright-controversialist Conor Cruise O'Brien, who had served in the apparently innocuous post of minister for posts and telegraphs But more significantly, O'Brien had been in addition the virtual educator of the people of Ireland on the irrelevancy and impracticability of the brand of irredentism preached by the Provisional IRA Despite Sinn Fein's jubilation, it is hard to conclude that the defeat of Cooney and O'Brien represented much more than the general annoyance and desperation over hard times that toppled the government as a whole especially when the extremely complicated system of voting in Ireland, with its multiseated constituencies and proportional representation, is taken into account In Cruise O'Brien's case, there was a reaction as well against his provocative anti-clericalism, open agnosticism, general academic snobbishness, and tendency to step on too many Irish toes, and some critics have pointedly suggested that he would much prefer to be a Labor foreign secretary at Westminster than an Irish Cabinet member Moreover, no serious departure regarding Anglo-Irish relations in general and Northern Ireland in particular is foreseen from the new government True, several factors might appear to suggest that Fianna Fail will break new ground its overwhelming and absolute majority, its nationalist history and reputation, the diehard republicans in its ranks, who would in certain circumstances favor outright financial and military assistance to the IRA Provisionals in the North, and the fact that its prime minister, Jack Lynch, is on record as advocating the declaration of intent by the British to withdraw their troops from Northern Ireland Yet most observers here expect the new government to adhere to the coalition's policies It is, after all, like the Fine Gael, unalterably opposed to a forced unification of Ireland against the wishes of a Northern majority And its simultaneous deference to the Ulstermen's will and the principle of British withdrawal-two basically incompatible ideas-anables Fianna Fail to give hp service to a course of action it has no intention of carrying out The simple fact is that the new government no more wants to incorporate Northern Ireland into the Republic than did the outgoing one A troubled economy that is straddled with an enormous national debt and a deficit balance of trade, plus omnipresent unemployment and inflation, is in no position to absorb 40 per cent more even poorer people-not to mention the added police burdens, and the cost of compensating for damage done by paramilitary groups like the IRA and their Protestant rivals In terms of pure political selfishness, furthermore, all the parties of the Irish Republic would be apprehensive about the prospect of having to cope electorally with the Socialist and neofascist elements found in the North At this point, the hopes for a resolution of the conflict in Ulster depend more on next year's election in Great Britain than on last June's in Ireland The real obstacle to an accord is no longer the IRA, which has drastically lost face among the many Catholics who have abandoned their insistence on an unconditional united Ireland and are now ready to meet their antagonists more than halfway Rather, it is the militant Protestant unionist extremists, like Ian Paisley, who are unyielding in their opposition either to power-sharing (in the form of a coalition made up of spokesmen from both communities) or permanizing the current direct rule from Westminster (whereby Northern Ireland would have no more local control than any other part of the United Kingdom) The British party possessing the most leverage in dealing with the Protestants is their usual patron and ally-the Conservatives If the Tories under Margaret Thatcher were to win convincingly enough in the next general election, they would have the strength to shake off the albatross of Paisley and his colleagues-who have, incidentally, compromised themselves significantly in several crucial Parliamentary votes and in dealings designed to perpetuate the present Labor government of James Callaghan A Conservative government in London would be in an excellent position to tell the Northern Irish unionists to either accept some kind of power-sharing system or to hold their peace The probable consent of the historically "republican" Fianna Fail would give such an ultimatum considerable added force and validity, perhaps finally leading to a viable settlement John P McCarthy , a past New Leader contributor, is assistant professor of history at Fordham University...