Correspondents' Correspondence

...The CDU chairman then rallied his state leaders to vote for the agreement, and it passed unanimously...

...Afar-Issa Coast—or Jibuti, as it is usually called, after the barbed-wire enclosed port-capital where half the population of 250,000 lives —has been a hotbed of unrest from the day independence began sweeping Africa in the '60s...

...But even if the Social Democrats gain in the Bundestag, the opposition majority in the Bundesrat will remain a potentially destabilizing factor...

...The relatively small French base would only serve to justify the much larger Soviet installation at Kismayu...

...Toward 3 a.m., with a Somali whore asleep on his shoulder, he delivered some classified information: "France will remain here not less than five and not more than 10 years.' The prediction has less than two years to run and will probably come true...

...MlCHAEL BeRGER...

...Under the formula worked out by Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and Polish Party boss Edward Gierck, Bonn would pay Warsaw $500 million in settlement of claims against German social security dating backto the Third Reich, and also grant Poland a $390 million credit...

...Though the agreement threatened to divide the opposition, it has instead strengthened it and damaged the government, thanks to the skilled last-minute mancuverings of CDU Chairman Helmut Kohl...

...If the voters are angry about Lockheed, they will be even angrier when local programs run out of money because the opposition parties refuse to help pass a budget...

...And when Vice President Nelson Rockefeller told some visiting Japanese that he was sorry the Lockheed scandal had caused their government so much "inconvenience," the Mainichi newspaper replied angrily: "Nobody feels inconvenienced, except for the limited number of those involved...

...Franz Josef Strauss, chief of the CDU's Bavarian ally, the CSU, has challenged this move to the center...

...The Ethiopian railroad, built by the French in the early part of the century, runs from Addis Ababa to the port of Jibuti...

...But I wonder whose government has had more leaks in recent years, yours or ours...

...The final irony of the bitter showdown is that the Japanese opposition—the very parties some American officials feared would benefit from the scandal—are helping Prime Minister Takeo Miki stay in power...

...But Gouled is also a creature of the French, put into office by his party to prevent its being banned...

...Indeed, this could be a first step toward turning the Indian Ocean into the "sea of peace" its littoral nations have always hoped it would be.—Russell Warren Howe...

...Ironically," he continued, "public opinion, not to mention the press, would never stand for a sudden reinstatement of such laws...

...It then joined British Somaliland to become a single independent nation, Somalia...

...France's tough new governor of Afar-Issa Coast, Camille d'Ornano, a Corsican, has instructions to fashion a pro-French coalition that will authorize Paris to maintain its forces in Jibuti for a specific period after independence...

...This would create a coalition government in preparation for self-determination...

...His one hope of holding on to the League's leadership probably depends on keeping Bourhan at arm's length and letting him go down to defeat through elections before independence or insurrections afterward...

...The agreement seemed another victory for the government's Ostpol-itik policy, and like previous successes of this kind appeared destined to split the opposition...

...If the U.S...

...The last time I visited there, in 1968, all visitors were closely followed...

...This whole situation demonstrates how lightly the U.S...

...may be losing Japan, as it did Vietnam barely a year ago...

...After seven years of the "historic alliance" forged by Willy Brandt and Walter Scheel, the ties binding the Social Democratic/ Free Democratic party (SPD/FDP) coalition have loosened, while relations between the governing parties and the opposition Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) are in flux...

...Genscher's position was similarly strengthened, for although his party only has 7.6 per cent of the Bundestag seats, he was able to influence both its coalition partner and the parliamentary opposition...

...In 1965 Paris even eliminated "Somali" from the colony's name because this buttressed Somalia's claim to the territory, and rechris-tened it "The French Coast of the Afars and the Issas.' The first is a local clan name for the Danakils of Ethiopia, the second a local clan name for the Somali people, and the order of appearance falsely implied that the Afars were in the majority...

...Given the territorial friction between the Somalis and the Ethiopians, which over the past 15 years has occasionally flared into fighting, if Jibuti falls into Somalia's hands Ethiopia's commercial lifeline would be seriously endangered...

...Even members of the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic party, whom the Ford Administration strongly hinted it did not want to embarrass or unseat, openly display irritation at what they regard as hypocritical American attitudes...

...The caution shown by American officials before finally releasing Congressional and Securities Exchange Commission materials to the Japanese government has drawn bitter attacks here from bureaucrats, politicians, the media, and the general public...

...He went behind our backs when he first visited Peking, and he doesn't trust us with his Lockheed information, either...

...takes Japan...

...But the party has shaky bases in two of the six legislatures it controls, and in the search for support at the state level began thinking of accommodation with FDP in Bonn...

...officials' to whom bribes had been passed, and expressed concern that public disclosure of the names might endanger the U.S...

...The United States would like the French influence to remain strong to counter the Russian presence in Somalia—the only African country with a Soviet military base, at Kismayu...

...But since the Somali nationalists are sure to win out in the end, and since the main reason for Ethiopia and Somalia to go to war would be the threat to Ethiopia's use of the railroad and port, a more imaginative solution could satisfy the reasonable demands of both countries...

...A forward looking approach would aim toward the withdrawal of all outside military installations from the region...

...After the upcoming election, pressure seems sure to grow for the FDP to either draw more concessions from the SPD or join the CDU/CSU to form a stable government.—Tom Heneghan...

...Foreign Legionnaires finally killed the guerrillas and fought off the Somali soldiers, but the incident also took the life of a girl in the bus...

...Next, the sort of rigged election that was the hallmark of French colonization everywhere installed a "self-governing" cabinet under Ali Aref Bourhan, a Danakil and long-time deputy in the French National Assembly...

...Such a solution would turn over Afar-Issa Coast to Somalia on condition that it agree to a condominium arrangement with Ethiopia in the case of the port and railroad...

...President Walter Scheel, the FDP coalition-maker in 1969, reportedly favors such an alliance in Bonn, and some SPD politicians no longer think it impossible...

...The culprit," he declared, was "former Prime Minister Kakuci Ta-naka, who had his finger in the Lockheed pie, even though the suspicion is not substantiated, and never will be...

...But France, the strongest philosophical and practical opponent of decolonization in modern times, held on to the French Somali Coast...

...Correspondents' Correspondence BRIEF TAKEOUTS OF MORE THAN PERSONAL INTEREST FROM LETTERS AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS RECEIVED BY THE EDITORS German Carousel Munich—The carousel of coalition politics has begun to turn in West Germany...

...The most emotional outburst to date has come from a Mainichi reporter...

...In return, Warsaw would permit the emigration of about 120,000 ethnic Germans within the next four years...

...During the 1972 debate over the treaties with the USSR and Poland, the Christian Democrats engaged in bitter internal squabbles which cost them heavily at the polls that fall...

...Perhaps more important, the boycott has so far thwarted efforts at passing a full budget for fiscal 1976...

...After World War II, the UN imposed a mandate on Italy's East African territory that expired in 1960...

...It would be seen as a return to the old days...

...These Legionnaires would keep Ethiopia's rail line open...

...Since none of the three countries on the Bab el-Mendab Straits is powerful enough to disrupt the flow of international shipping through the Canal, however, Jibuti's strategic significance is probably less important than the fact that it is a military tinderbox—because of its internal tensions and because it is coveted by Ethiopia and Somalia...

...To further blunt Somali influence, France expelled thousands of native Issas to Somalia and encouraged Danakils to move in from Ethiopia...

...Faced with Federal elections in October 1976, CDU leaders hoped to avoid another internal flareup...

...But who's to blame...

...Yet once you take apart die mechanism like that, it isn't easily put back together...

...At his party's convention next month, Gen-scher will probably emphasize loyalty to the SPD/FDP union, preserving the present constellation beyond the October balloting...

...African Tinderbox Washington—At the turn of the century, when Italy occupied Somalia and was trying in vain to take over Ethiopia's Eritrea Province, Britain and France each seized small colonies in between, at the Red Sea entrance...

...have been criticized, too, for their reluctance to probe more vigorously into the list of alleged bribe-takers in Japan...

...Following hours of telephone consultations, Warsaw agreed to Kohl's terms...

...Their country shares with Swaziland the distinction among sub-Saharan nations of being monotribal, and this homogeneity provides a political strength that helps offset its limited population (4 million) and poverty...

...Senators Frank Church (D-Ida...

...Any doubt about this was erased recently when Issa guerrillas attempted to kidnap a school bus carrying 30 white French students and Somalia border guards opened fire to protect them...

...Ethiopia's concern about Jibuti and its hard line on the Haud/Oga-den issue are of a different nature...

...Washington's other interest in Jibuti is geographical, too: The Massachusetts-sized country shares with the two Yemens (both pro-Soviet) the privilege of "guarding'' the narrow Bab el-Mendab entrance to the Red Sea, and therefore, theoretically, to the Suez Canal...

...CDU/FDP coalitions are now expected in Lower Saxony and the Saar...

...Last May, at the CDU convention that nominated the moderate Kohl for Chancellor, they also pushed through a social reform program designed to appeal to middle-of-the-roaders...

...Opponents of the Liberal Democrats have meanwhile been issuing increasingly bold statements designed to drag the suspected bribetakers into public view, although secrecy agreements with the U.S...

...But the seeds for a new round of schisms had been sewn in 1973, when moderates persuaded the party to support a plan closely resembling an FDP proposal calling for workers to share in the management of their firms...

...One possible route to independence for Jibuti is the deal Bourhan is prepared to make with Hassan Gouled, leader of the Issa party, the African People's League...

...The success of any such uprisings, though, may well depend on whether France follows through on its announced desire to retain a military base in Jibuti...

...Yukio Matsu-yama, expressed the views of a large segment of his countrymen when he wrote of the "sanctimonious air, offhand manner and narrow view" of members of Congress and Americans in general vis-a-vis the Lockheed issue...

...and Japanese statute of limitation laws make it unlikely that their identities will be revealed...

...Then in February, the CDU unexpectedly came to power in Lower Saxony, giving it a 26-15 majority in the Bundesrat (whose members are appointed by the 10 state governments...

...Lockheed in Japan Tokyo—Whatever the ultimate result of the Lockheed payoff scandal in Japan, it looms as a big minus for the United States...

...Somalia's ethnic claims to Afar-Issa Coast and to the Huad area of Ethiopia's Ogaden Province are all genuine, and are likely to be acted upon...

...It is not in Somalia's interest to deny Jibuti to its neighbor, for Ethiopian export trade is Jibuti's only commercial reason for existence...

...An opposition boycott of the Japanese Diet has united the conservatives behind Miki, who has taken a strong stand against any further haggling with the Americans over Lockheed evidence...

...But Paris kept control of foreign affairs, defense, the currency, and the police...

...The Somalis, a nomadic people with no written language, are hostile to all outsiders...

...Criticized earlier for adhering to Strauss' conflict strategy, Kohl suddenly emerged as the unquestioned head of his party and a tough negotiator with the East...

...government...

...What would be the reaction among the American people to Japanese meddling in U.S...

...affairs...

...The 5,000-man Foreign Legion force there now represents its last major outpost in the world...

...Finally, the opposition whittled its original list of 11 demands down to one: that ethnic Germans would continue to receive Polish exist visas after the initial four-year period of the accord...

...Leaks are common in Japan because our secrecy and antiespi-onage acts were taken off the books after the War by the Americans, who didn't want to see the rebirth of an authoritarian regime here...

...What if the tables were reversed," he asked, "and Japan were to say it had the names of 'highly placed U.S...

...Thus a week before the ratification vote, Kohl and Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher (FDP) searched for a compromise...

...Kohl took a softer yet still negative stand, and his apparent indecision reinforced his image of being a weak leader...

...As for the question of maintaining the Legionnaires in Jibuti, some imagination is desperately needed here as well...

...government wants to maintain good relations [with Japan], it should cooperate in thoroughly exposing all involved in the scandal.' The Asahi newspaper's Washington Bureau Chief...

...and Charles Percy (R.-III...

...He went on to warn that in its desire to support a friendly regime, the U.S...

...Henry Kissinger doesn't trust us—that's no secret," a respected Japanese political observer said to me...

...The catalyst for this was Bonn's "men for money" accord with Warsaw, negoiated at Helsinki last September and ratified March 17 by the Bundesrat, the German Parliament's upper House...

...If there was a loser, it was Schmidt: He achieved ratification at the price of added prestige for his campaign opponent and increased flexibility for his partner in government...

...He opposes all of the government's policies, and demanded unanimous rejection of the September Helsinki agreement...

...One evening, though, the territory's chief of police sent his gumshoes home, introduced himself and led a personal tour of the Foreign Legion's favorite dancing spots...