Quebec's Challenge to Canada

...His statement captured the essence of the stunning victory scored by the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ), both for the province's 80 per cent Francophone majority and 20 per cent Anglophone minority...

...Among many Montreal Anglophones and ethnic minorities one hears talk to?day of leaving the province...

...Those who remain will have to assimilate...

...Duplessis' death was the signal for innovation...

...French Canadians have not generally been treated well outside Quebec, for instance, and have usually been denied the right to education in French in the other provinces...

...It was in this atmosphere that the Parti Quebecois, led by Rene Levesque, was formed in 1969...

...Due to the fundamental cleavage over independence, the normal political process of a parliamentary democracy, whereby dissatisfied voters can switch to the Opposition, was subverted...

...By the spring of 1976, opinion polls showed the Liberals trailing the PQ for the first time...

...Officially the PQ refuses to discuss it, but a renegotiated form of federalism that would give Quebec greater autonomy in several key areas cannot be ruled out...

...They will attempt to demonstrate that Quebec derives significant economic benefits from being part of Canada ("profitable federal?ism") which it would lose as an independent state, with a consequent reduction in living standards...

...In general, the Liberals and the UN split the federalist vote, enabling the PQ to win many close districts...

...The subsequent balloting confirmed how well, and wisely, the PQ played down the issue...

...the resurgent UN, with 19 per cent of the vote and 11 seats, deprived Bourassa's party of a con?siderable number of constituencies...

...What is more, he alienated the English and immigrant groups with the passage of Bill 22, which declared French the official language and implemented that principle, often in an offensive manner...

...The PQ's progress over the past seven years has been aided by the confused state of Quebec politics, too...

...Nevertheless, a large number of Quebecers continue to perceive Ottawa as a capital dominated by hos?tile English Canadians, and they acted accordingly at the polls...

...The Liberals desperately tried to repeat their divisive strategy of 1973, but antagonism toward them ran deep in many sectors of Quebec society, including the normally captive Anglophones...

...The party was favored by about half of the French speakers, and was heavily supported by the middle and upper-middle classes...

...Among all Quebecers, only 18 per cent wanted separation, 58 per cent opposed it, and 24 per cent were undecided...

...Even if that is not very likely...

...The back?lash against bilingualism has revealed that many English speakers across the country believe the costs of keeping the province in the Con?federation outweigh any benefits...

...The same survey asked about in?dependence...

...market and American subsidiaries in the province could experience difficulties...

...They were willing to fight and suffer for the ideal of their platform: "Our common existence as a distinct na?tion can only be assured to the ex?tent that we master completely the levers of our political life...

...Frustration and resentment built up that had no out?let...

...On the contrary, independence simply was not an issue for most Francophones, and the con?ventional postelection wisdom is that Levesque has a mandate to govern, not seek independence...

...The PQ triumph, inaugurating a period of uncertainty and crisis here that could well culminate in the in?dependence of Quebec and the dis?integration of Canada, was surprising even to the victors...

...The results did not, in any case, signal a massive swing toward separatism...

...Its underlying convictions were that the people of Quebec could never protect their heritage, achieve meaningful autonomy, wrest control of the economy from the English-Canadians or consign the Anglophones and their language to a minority position if they stayed in the con?federation...

...Separation would also have reverberations in the United States...

...The PQ made its first electoral foray then and emerged as a major political force, garnering a respectable 23 per cent of the vote to the Liberals' 45 per cent...

...Thousands voted PQ in the belief that "good government" and not in?dependence was at stake...

...The PQ found its greatest strength among 18-35 year olds, while the Liberals led handily among elderly voters...

...As an ascendant Liberal party inspired the "Quiet Revolution" of 1960-66, old patterns of societal organization broke down, the power of the Church declined rapidly, people migrated to the cities, education was revamped, government expanded its activities, and intellectual exploration flourish?ed...

...The possibility of separation bringing on economic hard?ship did not deter the ideological?ly motivated PQ supporters...

...The single-member plurality system distorts popular vote counts, however, and gave the winners a strong majority in the National As?sembly-72 of 108 seats...

...Although polling is not as highly developed an art in Canada as it is in the United States, one preelection survey provides some insight into the sociological makeup of the PQ victory...

...HAROLD M. WALLER, a new contributor, is associate professor of Poli?tical Science at McGill University...

...Quebec, possessing a new sense of self-esteem, confidence and pride, began to demand special treatment that would satisfy French-Canadian aspirations...

...Over the past de?cade the central government has also sought to increase the influence of French Canadians and their language throughout the country...

...Ottawa will warn against such hopes, and antiseparatists will remind everyone that the PQ has stated its readiness to declare independence unilaterally once the people have said Yes on the question...

...The strategy worked brilliantly...

...Although the Gallic character of the province was taken into account by the Fathers of Con?federation, and the union of French and English Canada in 1867 was viewed as an attempt to build one country, linguistic and cultural differences have been a source of ten?sion ever since...

...During the two World Wars their resentment took the form of draft resistance, causing conscription clashes...

...INDEPENDENCE quickly became a critical issue as politics polar?ized between the federalists and separatists and other problems were neglected, making it difficult for the government to function properly...

...The province had been predominantly rural, agrarian and dominated by the Catholic Church, with education geared more toward classical, philosophical or theological studies than preparing students for careers...

...Ottawa responded by giving the province more control over decisions affecting its citizens...

...Yet it should be remembered that the party represents an uneasy alliance between nationalists and Socialists, with moderates and extremists on both sides...

...He capitalized on the fears of all non-separatists, even those who did not like the Liberals, and succeeded in winning a resound?ing 55 per cent of the vote for his party, good for 102 seats in a National Assembly expanded to 110 members...

...Political change in Quebec in recent years, accelerated by rapid modernization, was another factor in last month's election...

...a majority of this group planned to vote PQ in protest...

...With the prospect of reaching be?yond its ideologically committed backers, the PQ was ready and eager for the contest...

...He grew rather arrogant and out of touch...

...For one thing, there is the promised referendum to be faced before the next election in '79 or '80, so the PQ is hardly guaranteed clear sailing...

...But much of the focus of Quebec life remained directed inward, the vigorous actions of federally-oriented politicians like the now-Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau notwithstanding...

...The Liberals' 34 per cent gave them only 28 seats...

...But its roots stretch deep into the past...

...Bourassa did not have to call an election this year, and the reasons he did so are not entirely clear...

...WHATEVER the ultimate denouement in the case of independence, the PQ victory has assured that French-language predominance in Quebec is here to stay, and that French Quebecers will have a militant representative in their dealings with the rest of the country...

...Hence the campaign would be fought on conventional social, political and economic issues like housing, health care and service delivery...

...Que?bec's bonds in the U.S...

...How long the moderates can keep independence on the back burner is problematic...

...Moreover Quebec, particularly its youth, was significantly influenced by the worldwide radicalism of the late '60s...

...Levesque can be expected to counter that the threat is a hollow one, that if armed with a popular mandate he will be able to secure independence terms featuring joint economic and monetary arrangements-a sort of Canadian Common Market...

...Whether that ends in a new type of relation?ship for Quebec within the Confederation or in actual independence, this much is certain: It will be rough sledding for all, and neither French Canada nor English Canada will ever be quite the same again...

...Nonetheless, the final outcome surprised most observers...

...English Canada as a whole will, in the coming years, have to assess exactly how far it is willing to go to accommodate Quebec...

...Yet if it does finally secede, the viability of the rest of Che country could be jeopardized...

...But the most telling statistic showed that about two-thirds of the electorate were not satisfied with the Liberals...

...Quebec's present status is a di?rect result of the "Conquest," the British military victory over the French in 1763...

...Instead, when the ballots were counted the PQ led with 41 per cent of the vote and had captured 69 Assembly seats...

...In other words, despite current antiseparatist attitudes, the PQ has made independence a very real possibility (a gambler might give even odds...

...In contrast, English is important in Quebec, especially in commerce, the traditional preserve of English speakers...

...Despite the evident weakness of the Liberals and preelection polls that showed the PQ with a comfortable lead, it was widely thought that a sizable number of voters would hold back from supporting the separatist party at the last moment...

...Thus at the very moment the Federal government was taking additional steps to promote equality in Canadian life through bilingualism and personnel programs, Quebecers were contemplating an altogether different solution-independence...

...Meanwhile, the PQ total increased to 30 per cent of the vote, and although that translated into just six seats, the party was now the official Opposition During the next three years Bourassa, confident that separatist sen?timent was not increasing, operated on the assumption that the independence controversy would keep him and the Liberals in power...

...An independent Quebec might go very far to the Left, raising fears of an icy Cuba on the northern border...

...To boot, the economy was in bad shape, serious labor trouble abounded, and the Liberals were plagued by scandals and general administrative incompetence...

...THE SEPARATIST VICTORY Quebec's Challenge to Canada BY HAROLD M. WALLER MONTREAL THE DAY after the November 15 Quebec election, a French-Canadian student at English-language McGill University swaggered into class and proclaimed, "Now you know what it's really like to live in the minority...

...Still, the party does have control of the National Assembly for four years and could accomplish a great deal that would consolidate its position and sell its views...

...A divided Canada with geographic problems similar to Pakistan's, and centrifugal tendencies in the western provinces, would find itself quite weakened and could gradually disintegrate...

...But eventually there will be a confrontation between Quebec and the Federal government...

...Bourassa skillfully utilized this split in the 1973 election, essential?ly a contest between the Liberals and the PQ, the UN having faded from the scene...

...He could convert a lot of skeptics to the PQ merely by delivering on the promise of good government and implement?ing at least part of its social and economic program-strongly influenced by European social demo?cracy...

...In short, there could be considerable constitutional jockeying for several years aimed at heading off a plebiscite-improbable as that seems at present...

...Following the crush?ing defeat in 1973, Levesque's party had started to undermine Bourassa's main appeal by subtly modifying its public stance: It pushed independence into the background and virtually defused the issue by commit?ting itself to a "referendum" (actually a plebiscite) on separation at some unspecified point in the future should it win the next election...

...The UN ousted the Liberals in 1966, but was defeated in 1970 when the Liberals' leader, techno?crat Robert Bourassa, stressed his ability to cope with chronic eco?nomic problems...

...The English community and its institutions may not be threatened immediately, but their future is not bright...

...Levesque will undoubtedly move very slowly on this front, trying to structure the situation and influence events in a way that will shift the balance toward independence before the plebiscite is held...

...Indeed, many Quebecers see the vote as marking the beginning of the end of a centuries-long struggle for national and cultural sovereignty...

...True, Quebecers have had provincial government from the outset, have been prime ministers, and are represented in the Federal Parliament and Cabinet...

...For the moment, life in Quebec will go on as usual and Premier Levesque will try to calm the fears of uneasy businessmen and minori?ties...

...And the authoritarian Union National (UN) party regime of Maurice Duplessis, in office from 1936-60, cultivated this conservativism...

...Since all this could produce the kind of uncertainty that would make both sides reluctant to put the mat?ter to a test, an alternative course might be pursued...

...Federalists in Quebec and throughout the nation will not sit idly by, of course, while the PQ subtly promotes the independence option...