The Carter Mandate

...But even without a Carter landslide, they improved their position in the Senate and actually gained two seats in the House...

...In 1976...

...For this year's contest appeared closer than it truly was, in large part because of the pattern created by the returns as they came in on radio and television...

...At least Gerald Ford thought so: This year they became the President's whipping boy, as he warned the nation against irresponsible spenders...

...Carter has a mandate to do for the 70s and '80s what FDR did for the '30s and '40s...

...Although the reasons for this are not entirely clear, one can hypothesize that the old frontier spirit of rugged individualism-currently expressed by the stress on local over Federal power- persists more strongly in the West than in the East...

...Wyoming's one representative is a Democrat...

...Ford was looking for a mandate to continue to curb the Democratic demons on the Hill...

...The Democrats are more broadly based than the Republicans, more responsive to the variegated "grasses" at the roots of America...

...Montana's two senators are Democrats...

...Carter's mandate becomes clearer when the candidate is viewed not as one man but as the embodiment of a political movement, the coming together of social forces...

...he overcame this by carrying union households 62-38...

...in 1960, John F. Kennedy had 49.7...

...A final reason for Ford's Electoral College count was the presence of Eugene McCarthy on many ballots...

...in the states west of the Mississippi, the percentage was probably higher...

...Nevertheless, because of the optical illusion that Carter won narrowly, many of the "minority" groups in the country are each claiming that it was responsible for his moving to Washington...

...Households earning less than $16,000 a year-a majority in the country-tended to go for Carter, those earning more for Ford...

...And, in a sense, each has a persuasive case...

...Ideologically, Carter was the choice of three-quarters of the people who call themselves liberals, while Ford was the preference of 70 per cent of the conservatives...

...the West overwhelmingly went for Ford -he carried every state except Texas and Hawaii...

...If one has a bent for poetic justice or timely dramatic staging, the election can be viewed as the defeat of Gerald Ford by New York City, also a minority...

...The popular vote was never in doubt: All night long Carter had 51 per cent, to Ford's 48...

...In fact, to the extent that he tried to do this-or was depicted or believed to be doing this-he lost the trust of many voters...

...He did not have time to fill in the particulars, or to relate the performance of the predecessors he mentioned to their margins of victory...

...Leaving aside Texas and Hawaii, the GOP's appeal in the West is a long-standing affair: It has carried the region solidly in the three serious Presidential contests of 1960, '68 and '76 (Johnson-Goldwater in '64 and Nixon-McGovern in '72 were not real races...

...By ideology, he has been accepted by liberals and rejected by conservatives...

...Carter lost 46-54...

...But by Election Day 75 per cent of the Reagan backers across the country had returned to the Republican fold as anticipated...

...Yet the reporter's question somehow seemed quite natural...

...Carter won 59 per cent of the blue-collar vote, losing out among professionals and managers 43-57...

...the black vote in the opposite direction, 83-17, gave the Democrat the decisive edge...

...The uncertainty arises to some extent from the contrast between the positions he took after the convention and his earlier nonpositions...

...Add to this his picking up 47 per cent of the rural vote as well as 53 per cent of suburbia, and it seems reasonable to say that the Carter victory, like his party's in Congress, was broad-based...

...In his response, Carter briefly suggested that his win was as substantial as those of several recent Presidents...

...UNLIKE the battle for the White House, the outcome of the Congressional competition did not at all suggest a sharp division of the American electorate...

...It was not until the next day that Carter came out ahead in Ohio to boost his count to 297...

...It could even be demonstrated that Ford ran his race more against the Congress than against Carter, at times quite consciously, as Truman ran against the "do-nothing" Republican Congress in 1948...

...It appears to have been this spirit that gave Reagan his strength against Ford in the primaries and Ford his strength against Carter in the November election...

...America is still a highly pluralistic culture, and the Democratic congressmen reflect the personalities of their different and differing Congressional districts across the land...

...Thus the question is not whether Carter has a mandate, but how to define it...

...This Democratic high was the produot of public reaotion to Watergate plus a "midterm" election, when the party in the White House has, with one exception, always lost seats in Congress...

...and Nebraska has just elected a Democrat to the upper chamber...

...That Carter showed so well east of the Mississippi shocked no one...

...For the many sparsely settled sections of the West have an inflated electoral strength, since each state is credited with two extra electors for its two senators, giving the least populated ones a disproportionate minimum of three votes in the Electoral College...

...Among nonunion households, Carter lost 48-52...

...even where he had done just moderately well, with labor's backing after his nomination he had been expected to improve his standing...

...He had to do respectably with the "majorities"-and he did...

...Carter's figure this year was 51 per cent-a clear majority...

...Carter was able to project a kind of universal appeal in his drive for the nomination, but he could not keep up that all-things-to-all-men air in the race against Ford...

...To sum up: By the count, Jimmy Carter may move ahead with greater numerical authority than was enjoyed by Nixon (in his first term), Kennedy, Truman, Wilson, or Lincoln...

...More important, perhaps, it has to do with Carter's style: He ticks off his stands coldly, rather than spelling them out passionately and in detail...

...If the President-elect is that man, his Administration may well signify the opening of a vital new era in the history of our nation...

...He lost every Western primary except Oregon to Ronald Reagan, and he lagged well behind Carter in early polls because hesitant Reaganites withheld their support...

...It is much more difficult-and perhaps impossible-for a Democratic Presidential candidate to tailor his image to so many constituencies...

...But when the count was in, it was clear that the electorate had vetoed the Ford vetoes with a resounding vote of confidence in the Democratic Congress...

...he was able to prevail with strong support from Catholics, 55-45, and still stronger support from Jews, 68-32...

...In truth, however, Carter could not have been elected by these groups alone...

...As the campaign progressed, however, he spoke increasingly in the RooseveMan tone, enumerating what Washington could and should do to move the nation forward...

...Since FDR, for example, there have been three elections where the winner did not take a majority of the popular vote: In 1948, Harry S. Truman pulled 49.6 per cent...

...There was little doubt about this because of his performance in the primaries...

...As an individual, the President-elect remains a mystery to many...

...After the 1974 races, the Democrats were at a precarious peak, outnumbering the Republicans exactly 2-1 in the House and 65-37 in the Senate...

...Among Protestants...

...In the FDR coalition, the South was solidly Democratic by tradition...

...By the "parliamentary" measure, the vote of confidence in his party's Congressional contingent, Carter has every reason to believe that the Democratic direction-deliberately delineated by Ford's vetoes and campaign-has been confirmed by the American people...

...2.) Carter is a big deceiver...

...As a result of this situation, both houses of Congress have remained overwhelmingly Democratic, contrary to just about everyone's predictions...

...This reflected the relationship of the country's time zones to its political divisions: The East voted for Carter, although not solidly...

...If the late New York City returns had not swung New York State to Carter (a matter of some 300,000 votes), the President would have been elected, with 2.5 million fewer popular votes than his opponent...

...Compared to any of those 13 Presidents, Carter did quite well...

...THE DEMOCRATS, then, scored a solid victory in their bids for Capitol Hill and the White House...

...Given the margin of your victory," he was asked, "do you think you have a sufficient mandate from the people to get your programs through the Congress...

...Indeed, one can argue that Car ter came in on Democratic Congressional coattails (as was the case, some said, with Truman in 1948...

...It was assumed that in 1976 the Democrats would have to give back some or all of the seats gained two years ago, and especially those that had previously been Republican for 100 years...

...California, for instance, has 27 Democratic representatives to 16 Republican and, until this year, had two Democratic senators...

...The former Minnesota senator helped Carter lose Iowa, Maine, Oklahoma, and Oregon, adding 26 electoral votes to Ford's total of 241...

...Among whites alone, Carter lost to Ford by 48-52 per cent...

...This is hardly due to his own ambiguity, for after his nomination he took pains to adopt clear stands...

...Be that as it may, historically Dcmocratic superiority in legislative contests is nothing new or out of the ordinary...

...He is the spirit of the New Deal reborn-with one great exception...

...In addition, Colorado has two Democratic senators and filled three out of its five places in the House with Democrats...

...The reason for this is again to be found in the West, where Congressional delegations are as Democratic as they are Republican...

...Election night seemed to recapitulate the campaign itself- with Carter first strongly out front, then losing ground, and finally, in the wee hours after midnight, barely eking out the four electoral votes from Hawaii to give him his needed 270...

...There was one Independent-Harry F. Byrd of Virginia-and one Conservative- James L. Buckley of New York...

...The basis for their domination lies in the nature of the party and of the nation...

...If the Georgian had wanted to dig back a bit further, he could have pointed out that Woodrow Wilson won with only 41.8 per cent of the vote in 1912 and 49.3 per cent in 1916, that Grover Cleveland won with 46 per cent in 1892 and 48.5 in 1884, Benjamin Harrison with 47.8 in 1888, James Garfield with 48.3 in 1880, Rutherford B. Hayes with 47.9 in 1876, and Abraham Lincoln with no more than 39.8 per cent in 1860...

...the South is far more a part of the total soul of the Democratic victory...

...Consequently, Jimmy Carter will take office in January supported by a two-thirds majority in the Senate and the House...

...Yet these same states (except Washington, which supported Hubert Humphrey in 1968) have gone Republican in the last three closely contested Presidential elections...

...Other minority winners were James Buchanan in 1856, Zachary Taylor in 1848, James K. Polk in 1844, and John Quincy Adams in 1824...

...For all the differences among the Democrats in Congress, they do follow a recognizable theme...

...in 1968, Richard M. Nixon managed a mere 43.4...

...The attack, effective throughout the country, worked best in the West, where undecided Reaganites found the traditional Republican candidate far more palatable than the traditional Democrat Carter turned out to be...

...As the returns from the later time zones were recorded, in other words, the sun set on Carter and rose on his foe, until it began to shine on the Pacific and open a new day for the Democrat in our island state...

...That's a shame, for the details are revealing...

...Cutting across the vertical racial, religious, union, and residential lines, moreover, were the horizontal categories of income and occupation...

...Moderates favored Carter by a 53-47 margin...

...The state of Washington has elected six Democrats to the House, handed Democratic Senator Henry Jackson a 74-per cent victory, and chosen a female Democrat as its governor...

...Ford thus gained the electoral votes that made the race closer than it should have been...

...The momentum is there, calling for a man to give it direction...

...And Ford benefited similarly by carrying several small eastern states-Maine (four votes), New Hampshire (four) and Vermont (three...

...The Democrats have controlled Congress in every session but two since 1932-16 years of Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford notwithstanding...

...Ford seized on his rival's seeming shift to make his two most salient points: 1.) Carter is a big spender...

...By the class content of his vote, Carter is the candidate of the common man: low- and middle-income folk, particularly those who are Catholic, Jewish, black, union members, or from urban areas...

...Early on Carter was perceived by many-including some Reaganites -to be an opponent of big government...

...Ford's excellent showing in the West was not a big surprise either...