West Germany Prepares to Vote

...On the one hand, these measures against extremists, called Berufsverbot, have drawn criticism at home and abroad...

...Whoever wins on October 3, the outcome will be ironic: If the government is reelected, it will have been Schmidt's personal triumph in spite of his party's woes: if the conservatives score a victory, it will have been the party, not its candidate Kohl, that will have succeeded in changing the guard in Bonn...

...The quick pace of reform had slowed even before Brandt's resignation in 1974...

...Following a number of border incidents this year, tensions reached a high point in early August when an Italian truck driver (who happened to be a Communist), was killed at a border crossing by East German guards...

...At a time when recession has plagued much of Europe, West Germany has weathered the storm with comparative ease...

...After losing the past two elections to Willy Brandt, the CDU began to evolve from a group of vociferous nay-sayers to a more responsible and forward-looking opposition, with the moderate group around CDU secretary general Kurt Biedenkopf turning the party's emphasis toward measured social reform...

...Foreign Minister HansDietrich Genscher ended those intriguing speculations by announcing in May that his FDP would stay with the SPD...

...Recent developments have weakened the government coalition of Social Democrats and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), while strengthening the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU...

...Then in late 1974, a West Berlin judge was murdered, and the city's leading opposition politician was kidnapped only a few months later...

...In addition, that supposedly typical German characteristic, Angst, has worked against the SPD...

...The opposition has caused a minor controversy with its "Freedom Instead of Socialism...

...If the drift toward popular-front coalitions in Western Europe is to be stopped, this logic continues, West German voters must now clearly choose an undefined "freedom...

...Thus the Baader-Meinhof urban guerillas and the massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympics kindled deep anxieties...

...The small Bavarian CSU remains the Right-wing stronghold of Franz Josef Strauss, but the larger CDU has been expanding its moderate base...

...This has left campaigners with nothing to champion other than their parties' slogans...

...Communism has been gaining strength in Italy and France, the conservatives argue, and the SPD has been "soft" on its advance...

...After seven years of governing with the aid of the small FDP, the Social Democrats seem to have run out of steam...

...But the SPD is still the party of domestic reform and democratic socialism, two ideas that no longer appeal to many voters...

...Tom Heneghan reports regularly in these pages on European affairs...

...The growing support for the Christian Democrats is also partly attributable to changes within their ranks...

...The Ostpolitik, Brandt's main foreign policy issue, has lost its luster as well...

...It has brought many tangible results for West Germans, including simplified regulations for visits to East Germany and a boom in East-West trade...

...East Berlin reacted to Bonn's protests with threatening accusations...

...THE CHALLENGE TO SCHMIDT West Germany Prepares to Vote BY TOM HENEGHAN Munich If the October 3 West German national elections were an American-style Presidential contest, Chancellor Helmut Schmidt would probably have little cause for concern...

...As post-Helsinki doubts about detente grow, even the government is no longer so enthusiastic about rapproachement with the Communist world...

...Yet critics argue that the Ostpolitik gave up too much too fast for too little...

...Conservatives and FDP Liberals cooperated so closely on the compromise version of the "men for money" agreement with Poland that Bonn observers began wondering whether the FDP (now controlling 10 per cent of the vote) would join a coalition with the conservatives after the national elections...

...For the opposition, the recent chill in "German-German" relations could prove decisive...

...on the other, many voters think they are not tough enough and have begun looking to the opposition, which has been pushing for strong legislation against terrorist activity as well as a total ban on Communists in the Civil Service...

...The "German Model," a phrase probably devised by Schmidt himself, stands for the combination of economic and social progress which, the Chancellor argues, has become the envy of the rest of Europe...

...The platforms approved by the parties this spring differ so slightly from one another, however, that almost any coalition could be built from them...

...He has charisma, exudes confidence, likes to speak his mind...

...But under this country's Parliamentary system the electorate passes judgment on parties, and the star of Schmidt's Social Democratic party (SPD) has fallen considerably from the heights it reached under Willy Brandt...

...Last March, after months of wrangling, the opposition joined the government in approving the last step of Brandt's Ostpolitik...

...The party's real problem, however, is more fundamental: Although public opinion in West Germany has drifted increasingly toward the Right, much of the SPD continues to stand further Left than the most progressive Democrats in America...

...The government has responded by limiting legal defense rights and requiring that applicants for Civil Service positions be screened for their "loyalty to the constitution...

...In the end, government leaders say, the voters will reward the coalition for its economic success...

...SPD/FDP majorities in the state legislatures have been slipping away until now the Bundesrat (Upper House) in Bonn, whose members are chosen by the states and can veto laws passed by the Bundestag (Lower House), is dominated by the opposition...

...This could become the sharpest thorn in the next chancellor's side, no matter what his last name may be...

...Important problems such as environmental protection and job training are being neglected, as are all other matters that smack of extra spending...

...Factional disputes in Munich and West Berlin have given the party a Janus-like appearance, and pork-barreling schemes in SPD strongholds such as Bremen and Frankfurt have been taken as signs of complacency and smugness...

...The government's achievements have certainly been impressive, but some of his European neighbors think Schmidt's smugness has gone too far and have reacted negatively to his habit of publicly "advising" other countries...

...Meanwhile, spy scandals, one of them leading to Brandt's downfall, have continually unfolded in Bonn...

...Though "disintegration" is probably too strong a word, it does suggest what has happened to the dominant party...

...He is widely respected as an intelligent, efficient, toughminded leader...

...As a result of the changes in the SPD and CDU most politicians, concerned about staking out a center position, now call themselves "liberal," a term that means everything and nothing in Bonn, and both parties are moving toward consensus on some key issues...

...The real race, the liberal weekly Die Zeit observed, is not between Schmidt and his lackluster conservative challenger Helmut Kohl, but rather between "the disintegration of the SPD and the regeneration of the CDU...

...Keep Working on the German Model," SPD posters proclaim stolidly...

...It is apparently irrelevant to the opposition that the orthodox West German Comunist party is minuscule and that the SPD, in the Economist's words, is "holding off socialism with a bargepole...

...In short, unlike the past two elections, no real issues are being developed in this year's campaign...

...But neither Helmut seems assured of a majority large enough to be really effective...

...West Germans are understandably rather self-conscious about their democracy...

...SPD and FDP leaders are hoping that, as in 1972, sympathy for the government will grow in the closing weeks and lead to victory...

...Given the near balance between government and opposition at this point, the unpredictable public mood late in the campaign will probably determine the final outcome...

...If this bitter East wind continues to blow, it could carry the Christian Democrats to power...

...The Social Democrats, who jokingly respond with "Free Beer Instead of Pessimism," have come up with their own debatable motto...