Balancing Act in the Persian Gulf

...It wants dominion not only over some patches along the ill-defined northern sectors of the Iranian frontier, but also over entire regions in Iran's populous southwest, where an Arab dialect is spoken...

...The key to this step has been the change in leadership in Egypt...

...It is taking military action in the region...

...In 1972, the two countries even signed a Treaty of Friendship...

...A decade ago, Iran's defense budget was scarcely more than a few per cent of the present figure...

...In short, nothing fundamental has changed in Iran's attitude since the October War...

...they are more stable emotionally...

...Further, he wants a reopened Suez Canal, with Persian Gulf oil traveling safely through it...

...The Shah would like to encourage India to lessen its financial and military dependence on the Soviets, and help create a Common Market of the Indian Ocean...

...His weapons maintenance and operational capability are considered impressive, and his overall performance is rated as quite good...

...This would mean developing a defense-in-depth that, linked to a scorched-earth strategy, would make any invasion prohibitively expensive...

...There are, moreover, numerous ongoing quarrels between Iran and Iraq...

...Certainly, it cannot afford to ignore the presence of the Russian colossus on its northern border...

...It is attempting to improve its relations with the Gulf states and other Arab nations...

...But we, like others, recognize that the Israelis must have security within their boundaries and they should be offered every possibility to live in peace...

...How good are the Iranians at mastering supersophisticated armaments...

...What is perhaps more significant is that some basic facts in Arab-Iranian relations exist that transcend the current Mideast conflict...

...Minor conflicts though, are another story...

...In any event, Iran has purchased 750 Chieftain tanks...

...Iran extended de facto recognition to the Jewish State after its establishment, and maintains economic and commercial-but not diplomatic-ties with it...

...More recently, the thaw in the Cold War has brought an improvement in Soviet-Iranian relations...

...Iran's foreign policy, finally, extends well beyond the Gulf...

...It already possesses the world's largest fleet of Hovercraft-especially suited to the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf-and its Navy has ordered a considerable number of cruisers equipped with the latest in electronic gear and rockets...

...Still, this nation's underlying and traditional suspicion of the USSR has not disappeared...

...But that does not mean that we agree to the acquisition of lands of other countries by force, and that is what has happened, especially in the 1967 War...

...They are more mechanically inclined...

...Indeed, given the vacuum created by the departure of the British from the Persian Gulf and the reluctance (or inability) of the Americans to take their place...

...Several Boeing 707 tankers have recently been acquired for the midair refueling of an impressive force of Phantom jets...

...A direct attack, however, is seen as a far more remote possibility than indirect Soviet penetration of the Persian Gulf, where the establishment of a revolutionary government would endanger Iran's two most vital concerns: freedom of navigation and stability in the area...

...Another controversy concerns Iraq's territorial claims...

...Eliahu Salpeter, our regular Mideast correspondent and a member of the editorial board of Israel's Ha'aretz, has recently visited Iran...

...given, as well, the potentially explosive situation in India, Teheran's conflicts of interest with the Gulf Arabs, the frailty of many of its neighbors to the east and the south, and its past victimization by foreign invaders, Iran does not lack reasons for security-mindedness...

...Next to Israel, we are perhaps the most security-minded nation in this part of the globe...

...The focus of our policy is security...

...The monarch, pleased by Sadat's proclaimed desire to lessen his dependence on the Russians, has declared himself ready to provide hundreds of millions of dollars to accelerate this process...

...Unlike Israel and its Arab neighbors, Iran has not tested its soldiers in any full-scale war...

...they are less impulsive and less fatalistic...

...A small Iranian expeditionary force has been effectively helping the Sultan of Oman to put down the Communist-supported rebellion in Dhofar, in the eastern part of the Saudi Peninsula, and for Teheran this success has a two-fold significance: It is seen as proving to the world that Iran is not only willing but able to act as a protector in the Persian Gulf...

...Nor can the Iranians forget that the Arabs once destroyed a prosperous and flourishing Persian empire...

...To block these twin threats, Iran is pursuing four courses simultaneously: ?¤ It is rapidly strengthening its Armed Forces...

...We cannot accept the principle of the Arab lands just being occupied by Israeli Armed Forces...

...Yet it must be added that all of these evaluations are based on observations in peacetime...

...Trade has been expanded, and the bulk of Iran's Armed Forces have been shifted away from the northern frontier toward the Gulf, the new center of interest...

...Iranians are Shi'ite Moslems (a branch whose very creation was no less national than religious), while most of the Arabs are Suni Moslems...

...In addition, according to unconfirmed reports circulating here, the Navy would like to lease one or two aircraft-carriers from America's moth-balled fleet...

...Iran considers Iraq the primary conduit and instigator of Communist infiltration in the Persian Gulf and, as such, the main danger to stability in the area...

...Western assistance during these crises reinforced the Shah's Free-World orientation, and in 1955 Iran joined the Central Treaty Organization (cento...

...As a result, the arms race between them is not likely to lead to belligerency at the moment...

...Arab persecution of Shi'ite leaders, particularly in Iraq, is a recurring source of irritation for Teheran...

...The Shah's January visit to Cairo has apparently reinforced this impression...

...Whereas Gamal Abdel Nasser was looked upon here as an unsettling force in the Arab world, Sadat is thought to be a stabilizing influence...

...As for the Arab-Israeli problem, Iran sees the Middle East-as did the Persian empires of the past-in terms of a mosaic of different nations, languages and religions, with the interests of each party sometimes coinciding and sometimes conflicting with those of the others...

...That is how a leading commentator, considered close to official circles, explained one of the basic assumptions of Iranian foreign policy to me...

...Now that enormous oil revenues have enabled it to acquire a huge arsenal of modern weapons, Teheran also has begun talking of a "Swiss concept" of protection in the north...

...When that happens, the Arabs will have to accept the reality that the balance of power has shifted irrevocably in Iran's favor, and that the Persian Gulf will never become the Arab sea their maps and aspirations are trying to make it...

...But there can be no doubt that Iran-more advanced, more populous, more broadly based economically-will eventually become the undisputed strongman of the Persian Gulf, leaving Saudi Arabia behind as an overarmed, lopsided desert nouveau riche...

...Iran continues to rely on the United States to deter Soviet aggression or, should hostilities actually break out, to actively intervene...

...Better ties with India are also essential to this scheme...

...There have been modifications in tone and nuance, and there has been a certain devaluation in Israel's image-more in the political than in the military sense...

...Army-the ultramodern night-vision AH-IJ combat helicopters...

...Following World War II, Moscow showed an initial unwillingness to evacuate its troops from Azerbaijan, and in the early '50s it provided behind-the-scenes support for the takeover attempt of Leftist Muhammed Mossadegh...

...In the Gulf region proper, a shared opposition to subversion has, for the time being, considerably ameliorated the strained relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia...

...Whoever controls the Persian Gulf will have an influence on international affairs far in excess of his actual political and military weight...

...The proportions have changed, though, not because Israel looks smaller, but because the Arabs appear internationally larger, and, most of all, because Iran's own power has expanded so much...

...Thus, New Delhi has been added to the list of states in the Shah's good graces, while connections with Pakistan are currently being toned down somewhat...

...Shah Mohammed Riza Pahlevi believes he needs 15-20 years to put his country firmly on the road toward the "Great Civilization," and that it is vital these be quiet years, both internally and externally...

...Moving ahead of nato, Iran has signed up for 80 of the new F-14s...

...Abroad, it is no less active...

...The Shah, who has been very consistent despite outward appearances to the contrary, repeated his country's position at several press conferences recently: "The State of Israel is recognized by the UN and [by] everybody who speaks about a peace conference...

...This year the government has earmarked some $10 billion for the military...

...all statements have said peace must be established between the Arab countries and the State of Israel...

...One of the most troubling involves the Shat el Arab borderline: When Iraq was still under colonial rule, the British absurdly decided that the boundary, instead of going down the middle of the river as is customary in international law, should run along the Iranian shore, thereby putting Iran's most important refineries and its oil harbor practically within pistol-shot of the Iraqis...

...At home, Iran is alive with modernization projects and economic programs of various kinds...

...Instructors who have worked with both stress, first of all, that "the Iranians are not Arabs...

...There is also the resolution 242 of the UN and the ensuing resolutions...

...It is seeking friendly ties with non-Arab countries beyond the Persian Gulf...

...Meanwhile, Iran has begun improving relations with its neighbors by muting its disputes with Saudi Arabia, cultivating its associations with Egypt, and weakening its connection to Israel...

...In building up its Armed Forces, in helping the Sultan of Oman to put down the insurgents in Dhofar and the Kurds to break away from the Iraqis, in fostering good relations with the Arabs, the Shah hopes to show that his nation is a credible local power, capable of deterring Soviet adventures both against itself and against such weak neighbors as Pakistan and Afghanistan-the two countries that, at present, receive the greatest amount of Iranian aid...

...Plotting out its future on an international scale, this superrich nation is busily pursuing a foreign policy in keeping with its new stature, methodically building its influence wherever it can-in Asia as far east as Dacca, the capital of impoverished Bangladesh, and in Africa all the way from Khartoum to Capetown...

...The Shah says he wants his country to be the fifth strongest power in the world by the end of the century, and not many observers believe that he is talking only about conventional weapons...

...THE SHAH'S IRAN-II Balancing Act in the Persian Gulf BY ELIAHU SALPETER Teheran "Because some 60 per cent of the industrialized world's oil reserves are in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf area, this area will be among the most important in the world over the next 20-30 years...

...Ultimately, he would like to see an Indian Ocean Defense System...

...The most serious point of disagreement, however, remains Baghdad's close relationship with Moscow...

...Iran," he continued, "as the strongest power in the region, has the main responsibility for the protection of its stability and status quo...

...So, if you are a state recognized by other countries, you have the same rights as other countries...

...This is one reason why it is lending support to the Kurdish rebels in their struggle against Iraq...

...In this mosaic, there is a place and a role for Israel...

...The Iranian officer, these experts say, learns more thoroughly than his Arab counterpart because he does not take the attitude that he knows everything better than the foreign teacher...

...and although it has over 700 modern helicopters, it will soon begin to receive-possibly before the U.S...

...next year the sum will probably be even higher...

...But the most intensive activity is taking place in the Air Force...