Lebanon on the Verge of Civil War
OREN, STEPHEN
MOSLEMS VS. CHRISTIANS Lebanon on the Verge of Civil War BY STEPHEN OREN Some 2,500 dead may not be the only victims of Lebanon's six months of intermittent civil conflict. The Lebanese state...
...The bulk of the fighting on the Moslem side, though, has been taken over by Lebanese citizens...
...Finally, moderates of all denominations, beginning with President Franjieh, Prime Minister Karami and Shi'ite leader Adel Usarayan, worked for a compromise solution...
...It contained six members, one from each of the six major Lebanese religious groups...
...They are aware that higher emigration and lower birth rates have reduced Lebanese Christians from the 55 per cent shown in the last census (of 1932) to a minority of the population-not including Palestinian, Syrian and Kurdish Moslems...
...There are fair-haired Lebanese...
...But here, too, there have been outbreaks of shooting, accompanied by the burning and looting of Christian-owned shops...
...With only seven seats in the 99-man Chamber of Deputies, however, the Phalange does not represent all or most Maronites (29 per cent of Lebanon's population...
...What basis can be found for the Lebanese state...
...But the Maronites' greatest fear is revision of the National Pact...
...Because Libyan President Muammar el-Qaddafi openly stresses his support of Moslems everywhere-and aids Moslem rebels battling Christian establishments in Ethiopia and the Philippines-he could surely have been seeking to "destabilize" Lebanon as well...
...Nor, for that matter, was there any reason why the fighting should end, although both times it petered out after a few days...
...Jumblat, chief of a section of the heretical Moslem sect called the Druze (6 per cent of the population), wants revision of the Lebanese National Pact of 1943, which provides that the President shall always be a Maronite, the Prime Minister a Sunni (20 per cent of the population) and the Chamber of Deputies President a Shi'ite...
...Phalangists charged that the Palestinians were being financed by the Libyans...
...Palestinians continued to be involved, especially radical Palestinians who regard PLO chief Yasir Arafat as too moderate-like George Habash and his Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine...
...Led by Pierre Gemayal, they stand for Lebanese-rather than Arab-nationalism, and most of them are Maronite Christians, ecclesiastically autonomous Roman Catholics...
...He is demanding economic reform, and a Lebanon capable of defending its South, where most of the Shi'ites live, against Israeli incursions...
...Its principal sect is the Melkites (6 per cent of the population...
...Maronite apprehensions notwithstanding, it should be noted that the division in Lebanon is not purely Christian-Moslem...
...A compromise Cabinet was formed that excluded the Phalange and the PSP...
...Yet this spring's bloodshed was particularly ominous because the composition of the participants had changed...
...For one thing, they have occurred in Zahle, located in the country's easternmost region, and in Tripoli, the main city of north Lebanon, sections that were relatively untouched before...
...Less ideological than Gemayal, these men have been more successful at working with Moslem leaders inside and outside the Chamber of Deputies...
...Christians in general have found Jumblat's proposed reforms objectionable...
...President Franjieh, ex-President and present Interior Minister Camille Chamoun and Raymond Edde head other Maronite factions...
...If no common feeling exists in the country, what can take Lebanon's place...
...Economic change would hurt them...
...Ironically, one of the primary objectives for the sorties was to exacerbate religious tensions between the Sunni Moslem Palestinians and the Shi'ites, thereby encouraging the southern Lebanese to join with Maronite elements in demanding an end to PLO terrorism...
...But once started, it was difficult to stop...
...The original issue was the right of the Palestinians to use Lebanon as a base for attacking Israel, because this subjects the southern part of the country to Israeli counterattacks...
...Israeli raids on the South, with their inevitable casualties, have contributed significantly to the Shi'ites' militancy-directly, by stimulating their dissatisfaction with a regime that cannot protect them, and indirectly, by promoting urbanization in the area...
...If the Palestinians have gained wide Moslem support, their opposition is no longer retricted simply to the Phalange...
...he proposes that Gemayal's followers be excluded from any new Lebanese government...
...Jumblat further insists that Lebanon show its "Arab orientation" by punishing the Phalange for its "attack on the Palestinians...
...Meanwhile, the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians in southern Lebanon continues to be fought daily, and socioeconomic demands, ultimately involving a transfer of wealth from Christians to Moslems, raise serious problems for the future of the Lebanese market economy...
...The influential Eastern Orthodox (11 per cent of the population), more sympathetic to Arab nationalism than other Christians, stayed out of the conflict this spring and summer...
...The Lebanese state itself is in danger...
...A symbolic aspect of the fighting in Beirut and Tripoli has been attacks on shops owned by Maronites and other Christians in Moslem areas...
...Directed by Kamal Jumblat, one of the country's largest landholders, the PSP's nine-member Parliamentary delegation has long supported the Palestinians, Arab unity and radical reform...
...Cairo, they explained, wants to disrupt Lebanon's entrepot economy because this would increase business through the Suez Canal...
...Yet three days of shooting erupted between residents of the town and Moslem inhabitants (apparently both Sunni and Shi'ite) of surrounding rural areas...
...The Palestinians, who are not citizens but comprise about 10 per cent of the 3.5 million population (Lebanese statistics are not notable for accuracy), were fearful that Lebanon would join Israel's other neighbors in prohibiting Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) assaults against the Jewish State...
...A number of minor reforms were promised, among them a larger Moslem role in the Army and easier naturalization laws for foreign Moslems in Lebanon...
...Tripoli, a Sunni stronghold, is the Prime Minister's base of power...
...In fact, the power of the Sunni Prime Minister has gradually increased at the expense of the Maronite President, and certain civil service posts are distributed on a 50-50 basis between Moslems and Christians, instead of on the National Pact assumption of a Christian majority...
...Demography and geography have at last caught up with the Maronites, however much they may wish to think of Lebanon as a fundamentally Christian country...
...Thus, where the initial fighting was between comparative outsiders to the nation's political system, the most recent battles have been between the followers of Christian President Suleiman Franjieh and those of Moslem Minister Rashid Karami-much to the distaste of both men...
...Still, other rumors had more credibility...
...They were spurred on in this by the prospect-and perhaps reality -of foreign involvement in their country's internal affairs...
...But the most important new participant in Lebanon's strife is the Progressive Socialist party (PSP...
...As a friend of some of Lebanon's wealthiest men, he has reason enough to want to maintain the status quo...
...On the other hand, Kemal Jumblat's Druze rival, Majid Arslan, took the Maronite position on the subject of Phalange representation in the Cabinet...
...Some of these could be readily dismissed-the report, for instance, that Israelis were siding with the Phalange because fair-haired men were seen carrying guns in the streets of Beirut...
...Legislative seats and civil service posts are similarly allocated to the various religious communities...
...And rebuilding the Army from its current status as an overgrown police force, urged by some Moslems, would threaten Maronite predominance...
...In such an atmosphere the wildest rumors about the intentions of the different religious factions, of the Palestinians and of the foreign governments surrounding Lebanon flourish, setting the stage for additional violence...
...As clashes continue in the face of a succession of poorly observed truces by the loosely controlled combatants, the list of those taking part grows steadily...
...Stephen Oren, whose "Struggle for Lebanon" appeared in our May 12 issue, is a frequent NL contributor...
...The Libyans, for their part, denied the charge, and responded by accusing Egypt of instigating the violence...
...Opposed to the Palestinians were the 70,000 citizens who make up the Phalange...
...A liberal regime and a complex political system built on compromise no longer seem enough to hold the nation together...
...In short, despite agreements and cease-fires, nothing has been settled in Lebanon...
...But there were also stories of covert foreign intervention in the actual fighting...
...Besides, Qaddafi opposes a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute, and a breakdown of order in Lebanon could draw in both Israel and Syria, frustrating any hope of accommodation between them...
...Yet for all his apparent extremism, Jumblat has made no effort to push his Druze, who live among Maronites in Mount Lebanon, into battle with their Christian neighbors, although PSP adherents fought in Beirut during the early summer...
...After the April fighting, Lebanon's prospects looked extremely cloudy...
...In neither case did the violence have a clear cause-in one instance it began as a dispute over a pinball machine...
...Or to put these questions in a more threatening way...
...The poorest and least educated Lebanese, they traditionally followed large landlords such as Chamber of Deputies President Kemal al-Assad...
...On an overt level, the League of Arab States as well as individual Arab nations such as Syria and Egypt attempted to mediate between the Phalange and the PLO and, later, between the two Lebanese blocs...
...Moslems opposed using the Christian-led Army, distrusting its impartiality, and this meant the government was handcuffed...
...Nevertheless, Maronite influence remains out of proportion to its numbers, and the sect continues to think of Lebanon as essentially a Christian, or even a Maronite, land that is also the home of a variety of Moslem groups...
...Every religious and economic group is semiconsciously seeking circumstances that will allow it to display its might...
...Since then, the metaphorical skies have gotten grayer and grimmer...
...The case of the Shi'ites shows the interaction of foreign and domestic factors in the Lebanese situation...
...Upon what foundation can its diverse peoples now cooperate...
...The Shi'ite Moslems (19 per cent of the population) have, for example, undergone a political awakening...
...Many of Chamoun's backers, together with the Armenian Dashak party (five seats in the Chamber of Deputies), are cooperating with the Phalangists, and virtually all Maronite political and religious leaders have united in demanding that the Phalange remain in the government...
...But the basic National Pact system was retained...
...Against this background, the clashes that have taken place since the summer agreement are all the more disturbing...
...For another, even the pretense of political, rather than religious, warfare has been dropped...
...Joseph Skaf, the town's foremost politician, disdains regular party ties, though he is known to be sympathetic to Chamoun...
...Along with the Shi'ites, Sunni slum-dwellers in Beirut are fighting in support of the PLO and for economic reform...
...The result, as the Palestinians predicted, has been the reverse...
...Zahle, while Christian, is not Maronite, and certainly not a Phalange center...
...As control by former leaders such as Saeb Salem in Beirut and Rashid Karami in Tripoli slips, a number of Leftist parties, including the Ba'ath (Arab Socialist Resurrection party), backed by the Iraqi government, and the Communists, seem to be making inroads among the urban poor...
...Now, Imam (religious leader) Musa as-Sadr has emerged as their spokesman...
...Consequently, in spite of Moslem requests that the Army have a Moslem commander, the recent resignation of General Iskander Ghanem was followed by the appointment of the equally Christian, albeit less controversial General Hanna Said...
...Whatever the truth, the Lebanese moderates seemed to have stopped the spiral of hostility in July...
...Skirmishes between the PLO and the Phalange have not been uncommon over the years...
...This stand by the relatively well-off Maronites is hardly surprising...
...As for the Moslems, events of the last six months have demonstrated that the old Sunni and Shi'ite leadership, el-Assad, Karami, Usarayan, even Arafat, no longer control those in whose name they speak...
...A new Shi'ite militia, trained by Palestinians and loyal to Imam Musa, has been created, ostensibly to engage the Israelis...
Vol. 58 • September 1975 • No. 19
