Correspondents' Correspondence Arab Choices

...Arab Choices Tel Aviv—One year after the end ot the Yom Kippur War, the Middle East is still wobbling between a distant peace and another round of fighting There is an uneasy feeling here that the scales were tipped dangerously toward a renewal of hostilities by the United Nations' overwhelming vote early last month to invite representatives of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to participate m the special General Assembly debate on the Palestine question Contrary to wishful thinking piously recited in the Quai d'Orsay and other Western chanceries, PLO spokesmen in New York frankly admitted after the vote that their aim is to "liberate' not only the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (taken by Israel m 1967) but all of Palestine—i e , to destroy the Jewish State Many bitter commentaries have appeared in the Western press about the moral surrender of the democratic countries that abstained or even supported the invitation (Only the United States, Bolivia and the Dominican Republic joined Israel in opposing it ) What has been emphasized here, besides the obvious threat to Israel, is that the UN's according international respectability to ruthless terrorists constitutes a critical weakening of the international order on which the peace of all small nations depends Moreover, in a way perhaps not readily recognized by the Arab countries directly involved, the tilt toward war could be a tragic turn for them if it results in their failing to take advantage of Israel's willingness to make partial territorial concessions m exchange for partial peace arrangements This might well be the only formula for maintaining the flow of Arab oil money to Egypt and Jordan without pushing them into armed conflict with Israel By a quirk of history, three developments have coincided in the present decade that are favorable to the Arabs 1. The West has become acutely conscious of the fact that more than half of the world's proven oil reserves are concentrated under the sands of the Middle East 2. The industrialized nations' consumption of, and thus dependence on, petroleum has neared its peak 3. The unity of the West—and its readiness to act in a concerted fashion—has reached a postwar low At least two, and possibly all three, of these developments are transitory Large deposits ot crude are being discovered from the shores of Mexico to the Gulf of Siam, price-gouging by the oil producers is compelling the consumer nations to start crash programs to conserve petroleum and find substitutes for it, and, it faced with mass unemployment and total breakdown ot economic and social order, even the pusillanimous West may yet undertake drastic counteraction rather than be bled to death by a handful ol oil sheiks and Bedouin kings Assuming a way is found to avoid either the economic collapse of the West or a politico-military confrontation with the Arabs, it seems reasonable to project that the Arabs have, at best, 12-15 years to catch up with the modern world In that time the Moslem countries (oil-rich and oil-poor alike) must choose between two paths one, following the Shah of Iran's example in laying the foundation for the day, not too distant, when the petroleum bonanza comes to an end, the other planning additional attempts to destroy the State of Israel Certainly the Arabs cannot hope to succeed in pursuing both courses simultaneously An accelerated, yet broad, development program cannot be carried out in a region that is rocked by increasingly destructive wars Should the Arabs continue to spend their oil revenues on military campaigns against Israel, not only would development efforts be set back, but the flow of oil on which they depend might well be cut off, and at worst, the hostilities could escalate beyond the Middle East and the present adversaries Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat, so his defenders explain, finds himself caught in a vicious bind He needs the oil sheiks' millions to build up his nation and to feed its relentlessly growing population, but his benefactors are far more ready to open their purses to pay for war than to finance development Another military adventure, however, would only increase Egypt's almost insurmountable economic problems Sadat's best hope, therefore, is that Israel's readiness to trade "a piece ot paper tor a piece of land" might enable him to go on receiving funds from the Saudis and others who reject any notion ot an all-out peace with Israel But prospects for the step-by-step approach to a Mideast settlement were further dimmed at the end ot last month at the Rabat conference of Arab heads of state In declaring 'the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people" to be the PLO—with whom the Israelis have refused to negotiate?the Arab leaders seemed to be choosing the path leading to confrontation Although they may yet take a more conciliatory position, for the moment they appear prepared to risk wasting their new riches on the old dream of destruction -eliahu Salpeter Thai Squeeze Bangkok—Most analysts say that Thailand's economy is fundamentally healthy, despite its 16 per cent inflation rate over the past year Such pronouncements, however, provide small comfort for Charlerm Kindaeng, a 35-year-old civil servant and father of two, with a third child well on the way Like millions ot other Asians, he is struggling to make ends meet on meager earnings whose infrequent increases have lagged far behind the spiraling costs of living "I ve never been able to afford many luxuries," Charlerm says, "but neither have I had trouble buying basics like food Now I do At the end of the month my money is gone " While his salary as a handyman on a Bangkok university campus was recently raised from $44 to $57 a month, he finds himself spending about $50 of it solely for food, whose cost has virtually doubled here m the last year To help relieve the pressure, his wife, Sawaeng, has taken a full-time cleaning job that pays $30 a month, even though she is not only pregnant but afflicted with heart trouble "We had no choice," she says "We have to eat, clothe the children and pay the medical bills" She is worried about the risk to her fragile health, yet she regards the psychological burden of not having enough money as worse "It is a terrible thing to have to borrow or beg for credit It makes me feel very frightened ' Mrs Charlerm is also concerned about the arrival of her third child, due in December "It is a bad time to have another baby," she says "We don't want it, but we will have to manage " Belatedly, her husband talks of undergoing a vasectomy to prevent any future pregnancies The couple gets along by eliminating all nonessential items from then lives On most days, for example, family meals consist of a thin vegetable soup and a plate of nee garnished with a few stops of vegetables Occasionally they eat fish, but meat is reserved for special celebrations—and there has been nothing to celebrate of late Such luxuries as dining out, movies and holiday trips have become mere memories A battered television set is their sole source of diversion The Charlerms' problems stem from forces beyond their control Worldwide inflation has pushed up the cost of most imported goods, and foreign demand has raised the price of many domestic products, especially rice What is more, the effects of last winter's oil crisis are still being felt here Since under present circumstances the Char-lerms, like most Thai families, have little prospect of significantly increasing their income, their only hope is that someday, some way, the squeeze will end —Arnold Abrams Hunting Killer Waves London—Once dismissed as a figment of old sailors' imaginations, the phenomenon of freak killer waves capable of wrecking the soundest and best equipped ocean craft is now being taken very seriously indeed by oceanographers and shipping companies In the past five years, over 20 vessels are believed to have been smashed and sunk by unexpected giant waves, often in otherwise moderate seas The most recent case involved the British fishing trawler Gaul, outfitted with every device for navigation and communication a captain could want, which mysteriously vanished with a crew of 36 in Arctic waters early this year "The Gaul was a wonderful modern ship," says the Hull Trawlers Federation "The tragedy is all the more harrowing because at the time she disappeared the weather was not the worst one could expect m that area " Concern about such losses has led five nations—France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Britain—to join together in a cooperative project to monitor their adjoining seas with special instruments mounted on floating buoys and fixed platforms like oil rigs The scientists are concentrating on areas where 100-foot waves are thought to be unusually frequent Waves run in patterns, explains a participating specialist, and occasionally the components ot speed and rift combine to throw up unexpectedly large formations One wave in 23 is twice average height, one in 1,175 is three times, and one in 300,000 is a potential killer over four times normal height Gathering and correlating the necessary data will be a lengthy process, oceanographers caution But if they can eventually learn how to predict the occurrence of giant waves, deep sea navigation will become immeasurably safer —Thomas Land...