A Plan for Peace in the Middle East
BRZEZINSKI, ZBIGNIEW
SEPARATING SECURITY FROM TERRITORY A Plan for Peace in the Middle East BY ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI THERE WILL be no peace in the Middle East if the ultimate Arab objective is the obliteration of the...
...A prolonged stalemate, as the Soviets see it, radicalizes the Arab masses...
...But two further elements, I think, must be added...
...The first involves a U.S...
...As in the case of Sinai, the Golan Heights might be divided into three zones, the first to be vacated immediately upon agreement, the second in a year, and the third in two...
...In the Sinai—at present an important Israeli defense-in-depth— Egyptian jurisdiction would be restored immediately, and the Israelis would cease their economic or tourist activities...
...In all probability, the best solution for the West Bank would be to create on it an autonomous Palestinian-Arab state, linked to Jordan in a federal union...
...In recent years they have dropped increasingly frequent hints that an eventual peace settlement would have to include considerably expanded frontiers, euphemistically described as "secure...
...The answer is yes, assuming that both sides are prepared to make the concessions that would match a nonexpansionist Israel with a nonthreatening group of Arab neighbors...
...The second element involves a Mideast economic development plan designed particularly to help Israel's more backward neighbors...
...SEPARATING SECURITY FROM TERRITORY A Plan for Peace in the Middle East BY ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI THERE WILL be no peace in the Middle East if the ultimate Arab objective is the obliteration of the state of Israel, or if the basic Israeli goal is the acquisition of Arab land...
...On the other hand, Israeli recognition of the Arabs' basic claim to the territories they lost during the Six Day War would be decisive proof that Israel is not an expansionist state and that its concerns are truly defensive...
...Should anyone really doubt this, let him look hard at a map, let him ponder population statistics, let him consider the implications of the steadily rising toll of Israeli lives from the 1956 war to the 1967 war to the 1973 war, let him think about the importance of oil In world affairs, let him reflect on the possible future role of the Soviet Union—and then let him forever hold his peace...
...There can be peace in the Middle East if the Israelis are primarily concerned with their security and the Arabs are mainly preoccupied with recovering the territory lost in 1967...
...This gives Washington considerable leverage, quite in contrast to the Soviet Union, whose concern for a genuine settlement is less than self-evident...
...Additional safeguards would be written into a peace treaty normalizing Israeli-Arab relations...
...Any such arrangement would present many difficulties, of course, and probably could best be implemented through a graduated process designed to build mutual confidence and guard against onesided abuses...
...As for Jerusalem, it would remain a united city, the capital of Israel, but its Arab sector would be the capital of the Palestinian-Arab state as well and have its own municipal government (which might be simultaneously combined into a joint city administration for a larger metropolitan Jerusalem...
...And again, if all goes well, after another year they would vacate the final Zone C. SOME ISRAELIS have claimed that Sharm el Sheik is vital to them under any circumstances...
...Furthermore, as part of the overall settlement, Egyptian Armed Forces would not move beyond Zone A, except for token units permitted to show the flag...
...The result of this has been the sacrifice of 2,500 lives...
...Failure to make this distinction has been the cardinal shortcoming of Israel's leaders, who have often acted as though they were intent on widening their territorial jurisdiction and developing settlements in the conquered areas...
...be allowed to perform normal governmental, fiscal and juridical functions, border regulation among them, but Arab armed forces would not return to all the areas involved...
...Jordan would handle foreign affairs and security matters, and thus no separate Palestinian-Arab Army would be established...
...What is more, so long as there is no agreement the Arab oil embargo will wreak havoc within the international economy, and America's primary global links, namely those with Europe and Japan, will be severely strained...
...Increasingly, the more intelligent Arabs are coming to realize that the Kremlin's true interest is in a protracted stalemate, and that Soviet arms supplies are designed not to give the Arabs a victory, but to prevent a complete Arab defeat...
...I SAID at the outset that the attainment of true peace would require active U.S...
...Hence Israel's possession of the seized military station provides no security, but it is an obvious affront to Egyptian national pride...
...The second phase would be initiated a year later, after both sides had presumably begun to appreciate the advantages of peaceful relations...
...Its attainment, however, requires American pressure on both parties to the dispute—and determined pressure, to put it very mildly...
...it is dependent on the denial to potential aggressors of the use of the areas at issue for offensive purposes...
...If Syria did not accept this kind of arrangement, the Israeli forces would stay where they are, although this would be tempered by an Israeli declaration recognizing that, in principle, the territory involved belongs to Syria, and acknowledging that Israel would not attempt any permanent settlements there...
...Here, lor example, is a possible three-phase plan...
...By the same token, Arab acceptance of effective security arrangements would be tantamount to abandoning the idea of the Jewish State's annihilation...
...participation...
...The United States should not hesitate to use that influence to the fullest, for a settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict is in the American interest...
...Israeli Armed Forces would evacuate the area upon the completion of arrangements for the installation of the new ruling authorities, though perhaps for a brief transitional period Israel would be allowed to keep some forces in key encampments along the Jordan River...
...There would be mixed sovereignty over religious places, with an Arab-Jewish-Christian council in charge of the salient sites...
...The components of the scheme outlined above have at different times been advanced by Israeli moderates and by observers in the West...
...What is needed in the present situation is to decouple security from possession of land...
...Fairly sizable detachments of the UN peace-keeping force would be stationed there indefinitely, and —as an added guarantee—the Israelis might be granted a certain quota per month for direct surveillance through mobile patrols, to be sent in at their discretion...
...intervention is urgently required...
...Israel could play a creative role in this—not unlike that played by Singapore in Southeast Asia—as the center for technological-educational advancement...
...Although some resettlement would be necessary, the Gaza Strip with its large Palestinian population would probably be part of this new autonomous state...
...Eventually, the Syrians might prefer to exercise political and economic control in Golan at the cost of military control...
...Given the fact that during the October War the Israeli-Jordanian border remained open, and that the Arabs and the Israelis have managed to live together in Jerusalem and to cooperate economically, this admittedly cumbersome hybrid arrangement would be preferable to a new division of the city...
...The Jordanian military, except again for token units, would not cross the Jordan River, and here too the United Nations force would maintain a physical presence within the new country...
...If the Arabs desire the destruction of Israel, they will be unwilling to agree to security arrangements that would satisfy the Israelis by making such an objective very difficult or even impossible to achieve...
...If the Israelis covet Arab lands, it is simply unrealistic to expect the Arab nations to accept an essentially colonialist and one-sided solution to a situation that is complex in its moral as well as political dimensions...
...For these reasons, separating the issue of security from possession of land and refocusing it on the denial of territory for aggressive use is an urgent task both for American and Israeli statesmanship...
...In effect, Israel already enjoys such a guarantee...
...The United States, moreover, is the only power that can bring effective pressure to bear in the Middle East—and both the Arabs and the Israelis know it...
...It also would be less offensive to the Arabs than unilateral control by Israel...
...The Israelis would make a more substantial withdrawal, vacating Zone B and retiring to a line that runs roughly from El Arish to Sharm el Sheik...
...Yet even with control over Sharm el Sheik, the Israelis would be helpless in the event of an Arab blockade at Bab el Mandeb (near Yemen...
...In fact, without it the Jewish State would have foundered long ago...
...During this first phase, the Israelis would retain military control over the crucial Mitla Pass and other passes, and also over the greater portion of the peninsula, including Sharm el Sheik...
...Along with the U.S., both Europe and Japan might be expected to contribute to an economic development plan of this sort, since they also have a major stake in the region's stability...
...The movement back and forth of specialists, scholars and dedicated young people would help to create new links between the Jews and their Arab neighbors...
...Indeed, U.S...
...Similarly, the Golan Heights would be returned to Syria, but the Syrian Army would not return to Golan...
...Formalizing the arrangement would enhance the existing U.S.-Israeli relationship and have the added advantage of making the consequences of any aggression against Israel much more serious...
...Without American involvement, it is likely that the Arabs will be tempted by the mirage of Israel's destruction, and that a portion of the Israeli population will continue to advocate an expanded Israeli state...
...Israel's security is not dependent on expansion...
...That is to say, Arab officials, acting on behalf of the pertinent states, would ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, a frequent contributor, is director of the Trilateral Commission: A Private American-European-] apanese Initiative on Matters of Common Concern...
...Without it, Israel will remain the impetus for an Arab modernization which ultimately must spell disaster for that small and surrounded enclave...
...In return, Cairo would permit Israel to use the Suez Canal...
...Can territory be returned to the Arabs without prejudicing Israeli security...
...Meanwhile, the Israeli Army would pull back from Zone A (see map at right), demarcated by a straight line running from Bir el Abd to Sudr...
...At the same time, all Israeli settlements established on the West Bank after 1967 would be disbanded...
...Delaying or evading a settlement can only be termed a policy of national self-destruction...
...The Israelis must yield political control over the Arab lands and peoples held since 1967—following certain minor rectifications, perhaps, to straighten out frontiers —and the Arabs must yield on the exercise of military control...
...The problem of Palestine is so painful because there are evident rights and wrongs on each side...
...without it, our position in the Middle East will continue to deteriorate, jeopardizing important assets, while the Soviet position will become correspondingly stronger...
...The reasons for this are simple...
...As Israeli forces pull back, a permanent United Nations peace-keeping force would be given the task of maintaining patrols and encampments in the rest of Sinai, thereby acting as a buffer...
...guarantee for Israel...
...One may also add that a peace treaty is a dire necessity for Israel...
...In return, the Arabs would declare their final acceptance of the 1967 lines with the agreed-upon minor modifications...
...The extent of Washington's leverage on Israel has been illustrated by Israel's extraordinary dependence on American arms supplies during the October conflict...
Vol. 57 • January 1974 • No. 1
