The Qaddafi Question

...Sadat's words echoed the refrain, long familiar in Washington and other Western capitals, that Qaddafi is an irrational, irresponsible fanatic who should not be taken too seriously...

...Despite some false starts and sluggish periods following the Revolution of September 1, 1969, today its economy is booming...

...But what if Israel will not agree to Arafat's participation at Geneva...

...Should any serious fighting with Israel resume...

...or he attends the talks and they go nowhere...

...Before writing off Qaddafi completely, however, it would be well to consider several factors that might yet give new impetus to his waning star in the Arab world...

...Then there is the example of Libya itself...

...Yet it should be recalled that the leaders of the successful Algerian Revolution strengthened their appeal by swearing to live by Islamic standards (including abstention from alcohol) and enforcing these virtues among their followers...

...They may eventually come to share Qaddafi's belief that the Pan-Arabist Nasser was either misunderstood or betrayed by the moderates...

...If the results prove disappointing to a populace harboring aroused expectations, Sadat could find himself charged with having gotten too little from the U.S...

...Prolonged failure on the Palestine issue would doubtless lead to a sharp increase in terrorist actions against Israel and the moderate Arab leaders as well-aided and abetted by Qaddafi...

...But there is no guarantee that these moderate leaders will get what they want-or what their countrymen will consider satisfactory-at the still-to-be-held crucial political negotiations in Geneva...

...Along with agriculture, numerous infrastructure, industrial and public welfare projects are also being expanded-and ideological considerations have posed few barriers to foreign participation...

...Focusing on land reclamation, the plan includes rural housing, schools, medical care, and access to markets...

...Yasir Arafat, recognized by all Arab and Moslem nations as the spokesman for the Palestinians, has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Israel and to accept the creation of a small Palestinian state on the West Bank, coupled with the Gaza Strip...

...In late April, therefore, he reshuffled his Cabinet with the declared aim of "drastically reorganizing" the nation's economy...

...The additional boost that a large-scale influx of Soviet technical aid now promises to give Libya's growth rate could well make it the envy of its Arab neighbors...

...The current progress of the Algerian government offers further testimony to the cohesive power of shared religious-cultural values...

...Moreover, regardless of the fact that much credit should properly go to Jalloud and the other pragmatists on the Revolutionary Command Council, the 11-man ruling junta has insisted throughout that it draws its inspiration from the Colonel...

...The Libyan's biggest opening wedge, though, might be provided by the Palestinian problem-whose solution virtually every responsible Arab, including Tunisia's Habib Bourguiba, feels is essential to a lasting peace...

...Furthermore, Qaddafi's revolutionary program still calls for the destruction of Israel, theforging of Arab unity a la Bismarck or Garibaldi, the return to strict interpretation of Sharia (Islamic law), and the banning of such decadent foreign influences as alcohol, miniskirts and bell-bottoms...

...In Tripoli alone, a British firm is supervising construction of a new airport, Belgians are installing experimental poultry units, Rumanians are building housing complexes, Germans are completing a university city, and Italians are erecting a modern hospital...

...matically and monetarily, and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, Jordanian King Hussein and Palestinian spokesman Yasir Arafat seem willing, in varying degrees, to follow his example...

...Meanwhile, although its petroleum industry has been nationalized, Libya is discussing several joint exploration and drilling ventures with foreign oil companies...

...He was not consulted on the launching of the October War, and the settlement of what most Arabs regard as their victory is being negotiated without him...

...And however erratic or irresponsible he may appear to his present critics, especially in the West, it is not difficult to foresee circumstances in which Qaddafi would become an inspiration to others in the Middle East too...

...Egypt, for instance, is plagued by a high birth rate, rising unemployment, inflation, black marketeering, and shortages of consumer goods...

...By the same token, calls for renewed battle with Israel might start to sound more attractive-especially since the Arabs have tasted some military success in what Libya calls "the Ramadan War...

...The current Three Year Plan, funded mainly by the nation's ample oil revenues, aims to make the 2.1 million Libyans self-sufficient in food production-an objective regarded as feasible by American economists on the scene...

...Qaddafi did gain some applause for nationalizing American petroleum companies and advocating the use of the oil weapon, but he was generally upstaged during the embargo by conservative King Feisal of Saudi Arabia...

...And the evidence does indeed encourage the conclusion that while Qaddafi may be a continuing irritant, his influence in the Middle East is diminishing...

...As irrational and fanatical as Qaddafi may sound, he has been sober enough to permit his more realistic colleagues, such as Jalloud, to undertake a number of dramatic reforms...

...in return for agreeing to the separation of forces...

...After all, first Egypt Oast September) and then Tunisia (in January) pointedly repudiated him by ultimately declining offers of his that they had publicly accepted for political unification...

...In contrast, most Arabs now appear to be interested in some accommodation with Israel, internal reforms, modernization, and the expansion of contacts with other nations-particularly in the West...

...For the moment at least, Sadat is demonstrating that moderation pays off diploLorna Hahn is the director of tlie Association on Third World Affairs...

...or the Soviet Union, for its own arcane reasons, decides he does not really represent the Palestinians...

...LIBYA WATS IN THE WINGS The Qaddafi Question BY LORNA HAHN The joint communique issued at the end of Libyan Premier Abdul Salam Jal-loud's week-long talks with Soviet leaders last month, in addition to pledging "every assistance" to the Palestinian guerrilla movement, suggests that Moscow is now prepared to give Tripoli the kind of aid it was providing Cairo before the October War...

...Responding to mounting complaints, Sadat last fall announced a series of reforms designed to stimulate foreign (particularly Arab) investment, encourage imports and curb corruption-but the war prevented their implementation...

...At first glance, Islamic puritanism would hardly seem to have much appeal for the younger generation...

...Particularly susceptible to his calls for violent change would be young people (and most Arabs are under 25), many of whom have already shown an interest in what they view as the new and inspiring ideas of the only Arab leader who is of their generation...

...Older Arabs have been disillusioned by years of empty rhetoric extolling the goal of Arab unity, but many youths believe it to be attainable...

...In the wake of the abortive April 18 Cairo military academy Putsch -led by a Palestinian who had reportedly plotted with Qaddafi "the formation of command organizations inside Arab countries to carry out illegal acts of sabotage"--Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat publicly described the Libyan leader as "a political adolescent" suffering from "a sick mind...

...Qaddafi's caveats against dealing with the enemy could sound increasingly sensible...

...Coming soon after both governments' recent falling out with Egypt, this improvement in relations again raises questions about the role in the Middle East of Libyan strongman Muammar el-Qaddafi-who early in April shifted his political-administrative duties to Jalloud to concentrate on "ideological work and revolutionary mass organization...

...This is a significant departure from the traditional Arab insistence that Israel be dissolved within a multiconfessional Palestine (a goal most Arabs retain in theory, yet seem ready to shelve in practice...

...Similar scenarios could unfold in Syria and Jordan, making Qaddafi's "purity of purpose" appeals sound ever more attractive...

...Even if Sadat, Assad and Hussein do obtain favorable peace terms, they could find themselves in deep trouble domestically...