Who Will Succeed Brezhnev?
BRZEZINSKI, ZBIGNIEW
20 YEARS AFTER STALIN Who Will Succeed Brezhnev? BY ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI An unusual and indeed primitive feature of the Soviet political system is its lack of an established, formal procedure for...
...Considering Brezhnev's age, and barring a coup against the current ruling clique, his successor is probably among the 25 men already serving on the two highest Party bodies...
...But barring a policy upheaval, the most probable sequence is as follows: Brezhnev-perhaps temporarily Kirilenko-then Kulakov or Kapitonov or, if Brezhnev remains in power long enough, Katushev...
...An enduring, meaningful reform would require adoption of fixed terms for the offices of First Secretary and Premier...
...The last two may be too young to make it, though, unless they are specifically backed by Brezhnev...
...Kirill Mazurov, Viktor Grishin, and Yuri Andropov (all 1914...
...Should that not happen, among those we have termed Great Russian Civil-War Babies, Kulakov seems to possess the optimal combination of necessary qualifications for the First Secretaryship, including close ties to the incumbent...
...And his successor will be ?man who came of age politically during the dark closing days of Stalinism, who is entirely the product of a rigid and disciplined bureaucratic environment...
...1. The next leader will come from the very top of the narrowly defined Party hierarchy, i.e., the Politburo and Secretariat...
...Khrushchev was careful to play off Frol Kozlov against Brezhnev and was careless, after Kozlov's untimely death, not to have balanced Brezhnev with someone else...
...Brezhnev in 1906, or 12 years later (Ko-sygin in 1904, or 14 years later...
...Especially since the Soviet political system is now extremely bureaucratized, sudden leaps forward from below this level (as in this country by the junior senator from Massachusetts in 1960 or the senator from South Dakota in 1972) are virtually impossible...
...Stable rulers do not appear to emerge from among the contemporaries of the deceased or toppled leader, but rather from those one step down the political age ladder...
...Others who perhaps deserve notice are Polyansky and the marginally older Grishin, Andropov and Kapitonov...
...Despite the emphasis within the Party on absolute uniformity of opinion and cohesion of expression, it is possible for a man in the post-Stalinist Kremlin to acquire a reputation for entertaining views that are not identical with those of the incumbent chief...
...Age alone points against Nikolai Podgorny (bora in 1903), Mikhail Suslov (1902), Andrei Kirilenko (1906), Petr Shelest (1908), Gennadi Vor-onov (1910), Dinmukhamed Ku-nayev (1912), Dmitri Ustinov (1908), Boris Ponomarev (1905), Mikhail Solomentsev (1913), and Arvids Pelshe (1899...
...On the other hand, political stability favors the top leader's yielding to his preferred successor...
...BY ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI An unusual and indeed primitive feature of the Soviet political system is its lack of an established, formal procedure for succession...
...Power is still personal, retained in the hands of the ruler until it is torn away by death or conspiracy...
...Lenin, after all, was a revolutionary intellectual, a man who changed history against enormous odds...
...It is worth recalling that the Soviet press avoided publishing pictures of the Kennedys and Khrushchevs together during the Vienna meeting-the contrasting appearances spoke volumes...
...3. He is more likely to be a Great Russian (or a Russified Slav) than a non-Russian...
...Of the intermediate age group, Mazurov is a Byelorussian, while Grishin, Andropov and Kapitonov are Great Russians...
...This suggests that candidates who combine Politburo membership with at least prior service as a Party Secretary (i.e., who have run some part of the bureaucracy) have an advantage...
...In those circumstances, She-lepin could very well benefit most...
...In the event that the succession is delayed long enough for the younger generation-the Post-NEP Babies-to be considered ready for the top leadership, Brezhnev might favor Kafushev...
...Those young enough to remain in contention are Dmitri Polyansky (1917...
...Of the younger men, Shelepin, Kulakov, Demichev, Dolgikh, and Katushev are Great Russians...
...Khrushchev in 1894, or 13 years later...
...This brings us to the far more speculative yet critically relevant consideration of personal connections and policy standings...
...Stalin manipulated first Andrei Zhdanov versus Georgi Malenkov, and then Malen-kov, Lavrenti Beria and Khrushchev...
...In trying to isolate Brezhnev's successor, therefore, it seems wisest to reduce the choices to several key men and then outline both the circumstances that would be most favorable to each and how the emergence of one or another would affect the Premiership...
...Stalin in 1881, or 11 years later...
...But the problem of personal power will not really be solved...
...He was highly visible during the Moscow summit meetings, often occupying a prestigious position next to the First Secretary in Soviet photographs featuring Nixon and Brezhnev...
...This would allow smoother, more clearly demarcated transfers of power (under the Mexican one-party system, for example, the President is limited to one six-year term...
...A full Politburo member, not on the Secretariat, Polyansky has long served as the First Deputy Prime Minister, but his primary strength is governmental administration, and his recent crisis appointment as Minister of Agriculture effectively removes him from Politburo affairs...
...5. Assuming continuity in policy at the time of succession, the next leader will be an individual favored by the incumbent...
...Because the next Soviet leader will emerge from the 25 men already at the top, he will have to have demonstrated to his colleagues and subordinates a superior grasp of the important policy dilemmas confronting the USSR as well as some talent in the wielding of bureaucratic power-with its opportunities for making timely alliances and developing politically expedient patronage...
...If age or fatigue dictate Brezhnev's resignation-in other words, if the transfer of power is an orderly one-he will obviously have a strong voice in naming his successor and might even risk opposition from Politburo members of his own generation to urge a transitional leader, thereby paving the way for the takeover of a younger and more enduring leader later...
...The most likely candidates for Premier appear to be Mazurov and Polyan-sky, Kosygin's immediate deputies the past eight years...
...Nevertheless, some skepticism about their vision and imagination may be justified...
...their present positions and the obstacles they overcame on the way to the top speak for that...
...By extension, the next Soviet leader should have been born sometime between 1917-20, a proposition reinforced by the cluster of top Party officials in this age bracket...
...in the event of a major policy failure, he will be someone who has indirectly and cautiously managed to cultivate a relatively independent identity...
...Given the personal character of Soviet power, however, it is unwise for the chief to cultivate a single protege...
...Polyansky is a Russified Ukrainian: Shcherbitskiy is a Ukrainian...
...Soviet succession seems to be subject to a generational cycle...
...Back in the mid-'50s, for instance, I coauthored a book that identified Brezhnev as one of two younger Soviet officials worthy of special attention, and a book I co-authored in the very early '60s picked him as the man to watch...
...Of course, it would also imply some limits on that power...
...Brezhnev's selection was based on the application of five rules derived from the history of Soviet political conduct and the nature of the Soviet political system as a whole...
...Taking just age and nationality together, the most likely prospects for First Secretary appear to be Shelepin, Kulakov, Demichev, Dolgikh, and Katushev...
...But Brezhnev, who took advantage of the opportunities opened up by the Stalinist purges and rose to middle rank during the earthshaking period of World War TT, already was much more the product of Soviet bureaucracy...
...The dislocations caused by the succession struggle after Stalin's death, as well as the anxieties involved in unseating Nikita Khrushchev, have surely made an impression upon Soviet officials...
...His broad political background, reputed high ability, alleged (though certainly not overt) ambivalence about some of Brezhnev's policies, and finally his age and nationality would all be assets-especially if the elite felt the time was ripe not for continuity but for a more decisive change...
...Kapitonov could ultimately emerge as Kulakov's main rival, especially if in the interim he is elected to the Politburo...
...There is also an intermediate age group of feasible eligibility consisting of Ivan Kapito-nov (1915...
...The assignment of additional responsibilities to him in the near future and his inclusion within the Politburo itself would confirm his longer-range prospects...
...4. He will be an individual whose professional political background combines broad policy-making ability with tangible experience in Party management...
...Dolgikh and Katushev, both Party Secretaries, obviously represent the younger generation being brought into top leadership...
...But an active and able Party Secretary could still be a strong contender, particularly if he is supported by the present chief, who himself is both First Secretary and chairman of the Politburo...
...and Rashidov is an Uzbek...
...Grishin, a full Politburo member but not a Secretary, has dealt primarily with trade unions and will be 60 next year...
...Such a combination would help preserve the image of a multinational Soviet Union, too...
...A final word about the calibre of the men involved: They are without question able...
...Katushev has been acquiring considerable foreign expertise, especially in relations with other Communist parties...
...This does not mean, however, that we cannot anticipate who the next Soviet rulers might be...
...If a change of command were triggered by a major policy failure, a degree of independence would be a significant asset for a candidate, provided he had not antagonized the key "vote groups" in the system: the military and the upper echelons of the Party bureaucracy...
...The combination of Kulakov or Kapitonov as First Secretary with either Mazurov or Polyansky as Premier would give the Soviet regime an eminently presentable pair of leaders-something the new, highly prestige-minded Soviet elite is quite conscious of...
...Should that happen, the most likely transitional figure would be Kirilenko, who has acted on occasion as Brezhnev's deputy and stand-in, a man not apt to be viewed by others as a long-term claimant to power...
...Consequently, the present Soviet government continues to prefer the less regulated, less predictable arrangements that are in keeping with the Communists' traditional aversion to open contestation and their conspiratorial approach to selecting leaders...
...Alek-sandr Shelepin, Vladimir Shcherbit-skiy, Fedor Kulakov, Petr Demi-chev, Petr Masherov (all 1918...
...By applying the five rules, we can rapidly eliminate a major portion of the Politburo and Secretariat members from consideration for Brezhnev's and Kosygin's positions...
...Sharaf Rashidov (1917), Vladimir Dolgikh (1924), and Konstantin Katushev (1927...
...This was not the case in Stalin's day, for the Party leadership was still truly multinational or "international" in the early '20s...
...Within certain limits it is possible to determine the frontrunners and sometimes even to single out the likely winners...
...Polyansky's reassignment as Minister of Agriculture makes his political future hinge on the rather uncertain prospects of Soviet farm production, tipping the scales toward Mazurov...
...Masherov is a Byelorussian...
...Thus it is reasonable to expect that, perhaps in the not-too-distant future, a formal resignation by Brezhnev or Premier Aleksei Kosygin because of old age or poor health (both are in their late 60s and have experienced recent illnesses) will be accompanied by the Central Committee's simultaneous announcement of their successors...
...Andropov is merely a candidate member of the Politburo, and his present position as head of the secret police probably makes him suspect in the eyes of his colleagues...
...Stalin, likewise a revolutionary by vocation, brutally remade Russian society...
...So far, at least, the pattern has obeyed a certain regularity: Lenin was born in 1870...
...Today, with the predominance of Great Russian nationalism, the chances of a non-Slav exercising effective control over the Party appear slim...
...There is reason to believe, too, that Brezhnev has been whittling down his influence...
...and Khrushchev was shaped initially by the traumas of the Civil War and gained maturitY during the drive for industrialization...
...In all probability, the Kremlin will begin to evolve orderly processes for coping with the difficulty...
...Lenin clearly tried to balance Stalin with Leon Trotsky and Nikolai Bukharin...
...Interestingly, a New York Times editorial dated January 23, 1924, excluded Stalin from the circle vying to succeed Lenin, declaring that he "may be disqualified by the fact that he is not a Great Russian, like Lenin and Kerensky, but a Georgian...
...This is a major weakness, for it prompts rigidity in the latter phases of an old regime and turmoil during and immediately following the emergence of a new one...
...They are also better trained professionally and technically than any of their predecessors...
...It is more probable that a Russified non-Russian Slav (Byelorussian or Ukrainian) will deliberately be chosen to serve as the Premier, with a Great Russian as the First Secretary, thereby cosmetically emphasizing the "equality" of all the nations comprising the Soviet Union...
...their prospects will doubdess improve if Brezhnev remains at the helm a few more years...
...Subtle psychological factors-such as the unwillingness of the ex-chief's peers to acknowledge that any one of them is superior-and more obvious considerations of health and age are clearly involved...
...But first the five rules...
...2. He is likely to be about 10-12 years younger than his predecessor...
...Since he is in charge of agriculture, much depends on how his performance will be assessed in the light of the recent farm crisis, and on how far he can expand his competence into other fields...
...Moreover, Party chief Leonid Brezhnev's leadership is certainly less personal-and more bureaucratic-than was that of his predecessors...
...The same rules still obtain, although it must be noted that major areas of uncertainty will persist because relatively little is known about the health of many top Soviet leaders, and even less about their psychological vigor, ambition, etc...
...Demichev, a candidate member of the Politburo and a Secretary, has worked extensively in the USSR Council of Ministers and is considered a possible successor to Suslov in ideological matters...
...As for political background, among these five-whom we may call the Great Russian Civil-War Babies-only Kulakov is a full Politburo member and a Secretary...
...Shelepin, a full Politburo member and currently in charge of the trade unions, has wide Party experience (he headed the Komsomol and the secret police) but lacks a foothold in the Secretariat...
...Naturally, the situation will be much more fluid if the change is precipitated by a dramatic policy conflict, and altogether different if it is the outcome of a conspiracy or if Brezhnev is somehow incapacitated...
...Kapitonov, not a Politburo member but the Secretary in charge of Party organization, apparently lacks broad expertise in high-level policy-making, yet his position and his long service in the key Moscow Party could make him a potent factor in any protracted struggle...
Vol. 56 • March 1973 • No. 6
