Correspondents' Correspondence Brezhnev's Line

...Foreign broadcasts are jammed...

...The bankers later declared in Helsinki that a Soviet "economic rapproachement with the Free World is developing...

...Americans have an abiding faith that economic cooperation will bring political and social mellowing in the Soviet Union...

...Hence, during his politically difficult visit to West Germany last month, Brezhnev focused on economic cooperation...

...This would lead to an Israeli population of 4 million Arabs and 4.3 million Jews by 1997, with an Arab majority not far off...

...Now Chase is even running an advertisement locally that pictures a standard scene of St...

...Brezhnev's Line Moscow-The Kremlin has a friend at Chase Manhattan these days and he is none other than David Rockefeller, who recently opened a branch of his bank in two suites on the second floor of the elegant old Metropol hotel, two minutes walk from Red Square...

...In return, it obviously hopes to barter or sell off some of its enormous reserves of raw materials...

...Everyone here agrees that this is one of the major Kremlin policy shifts since World War II-an invitation to capitalist countries to profit from the development of the Soviet Socialist economy...

...Chase Manhattan, meanwhile, is involved in the huge Kama River truck factory project Should the plans to bring natural gas from Siberia to the U.S...

...It is highly unlikely that any Israeli government, even an extremely dovish one, would let Arab forces come back to the Strip, thereby bringing enemy guns and terrorists within a few score miles of Tel Aviv...

...A week after Chase opened up, 13 members of the international board of directors of the Bank of America flew into the Russian capital to announce formally that they, too, will have representation here...

...As for the doves, they tend to ignore one essential fact...

...move beyond the "declaration of intention" stage, several billion dollars more in Western financing will be required...

...But earlier, last December, high level information portraying Shelest as the leading hawk for the invasion of Czechoslovakia was deliberately leaked to the Western press...

...The Bank of America, they observed, is assisting in the multibillion-dollar fertilizer deal worked out by Armand Hammer's Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and is also helping to finance a $68 million Caterpillar Tractor sale...

...The ones I have talked to say the private conversations are practical and concrete, without any hint of the "sharpening of the ideological struggle" that is officially asserted in Moscow's policy statements...

...At the same time that Shelest was ousted, the Politburo gained Defense Minister Andrei Grechko and KGB chief Yuri Andropov-suggesting that detente or not, there will not be any soft-headed thinking about the USSR's military posture toward the West, or about political liberalization within the Soviet Union...

...2. To keep most of the territories and give full rights to all Arabs-in which case, before the end of the century, at least half of the knesset and half of the cabinet would be Arab...

...Thus, they predict that by 1997 Israel would contain 5.7 million Jews and 3.5 million Arabs...

...Although it is hard to pinpoint exactly when the Soviet leadership made the decision to do so, the USSR is clearly looking to the United States, Western Europe and Japan for money, equipment and technical knowledge...

...Actually, neither side is being entirely realistic...

...When asked about the possible effects of a Nixon resignation, an official responded: "The repercussions would be tactical, not strategic") There seems no doubt, however, that the "Western policy" has ideological opposition...

...Sapir asserts that adding the 1.2 million Arabs now living in the occupied areas to an Israeli population that already includes 450,000 Arab citizens would eventually mean "the strangulation of the State...

...Similarly, reports in the Soviet press on the Washington Summit meeting have concentrated chiefly on economic ties...

...Israel, the doves say, would then be faced with three choices: 1. To keep most of the administered territories and maintain the predominantly Jewish nature of Israel-in which case the democratic principle of equal rights to all Arabs would have to be compromised...

...The small array of Soviet dissidents is being methodically disbanded by the KGB...

...That is why the Soviets are talking about vast projects spanning one or two decades...

...The best known exponent of the dovish position is Finance Minister Pinhas Sapir, considered one of the more likely successors to Prime Minister Golda Meir...

...Ukrainian Party boss Petr Shelest might have been part of it...

...All this comes under the banner of "ideological struggle," which may sound quaintly archaic in the United States, yet remains operative policy in the Soviet Union...

...3. To uphold both the Jewish and the democratic nature of Israel -in which case most of the area acquired during the Six-Day War would have to be given up...

...They wanted to hold their quarterly directors' meeting in Moscow, but the Soviets quietly discouraged the idea...

...Publicly, he lost his Politburo seat in April because he tolerated, if not aided, Ukrainian nationalism...

...The doves reject this as wishful thinking, arguing that the Arabs in the territories, should they ever become reconciled to living under Israeli rule, would also want full citizenship...

...Close to 40 per cent of the Arabs in the administered territories live in the narrow, overcrowded Gaza Strip, formerly held as an occupied area by Egypt...

...Customs officers confiscate "objectionable" books and magazines that Western tourists innocently carry with them...

...To deal with the demographic problems, he would like to work out some new system whereby the Arabs would stay under Israeli control, yet retain their former citizenship in the neighboring Arab countries, even to the extent of having the right to elect and be elected to the parliaments of those countries...

...But this time the question is being posed the other way around: How much Arab territory can Israel keep without running a risk to its long-term future...

...Meir expressed the same concern in her own colorful way recently, saying she "would not like to wake up each morning worrying how many Arab babies were born in the country during the night...

...Moreover, it would only be a matter of a few years before the 38 per cent became 48 per cent...

...The hawks' assumption that in an expanded Israel there would be a large Jewish influx and a reduced Arab net increase is not especially relevant: Arabs would still constitute 38 per cent of the population by their figures, and a national minority of that size has almost as strong a claim for governmental parity as the 48 per cent minority predicted by the doves...

...Because of the much higher Arab birth rate, he claims, within only 25 years Israel would be 55 per cent Jewish and 45 per cent Arab-Despite an immigration of 50,000 Jews annually...

...Basil's cathedral and the Spassky clock tower, then notes in the text with heavy irony that the bank's international trade counseling is available on 1 Karl Marx Square...

...His fall might have been a signal to those who object to the profitable detente with the West...

...Thus, the Soviet approach to Watergate is rational and logical...

...Foreign newspapers and periodicals, except those produced by select Communist parties, are still banned...

...Rockefeller met with Premier Alek-sei Kosygin and hosted a caviar and champagne reception attended by Moscow's big bankers...

...The doves estimate a 4 per cent Arab increase, combined with an average annual immigration of only 25,000 Jews...

...And implicit in the change, associated most closely with Brezhnev, is an admission that Soviet needs have reached such critical levels that no other course is open...

...Assuming that the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip have to remain under Israeli control in any event, the debate between hawks and doves over the proportion of Arabs in the population narrows down considerably...

...Indeed, the Kremlin may welcome American businessmen with an outpouring of hospitality, but not much else that is American or Western is allowed in...

...That, of course, is a different argument in a different debate.-Eliahu Salpeter...

...The hawks foresee a steady flow of at least 70,000 Jewish immigrants every year and a net Arab growth of 3.5 per cent annually...

...Anything outside official contact is looked on with suspicion...

...Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, on the other hand, has lately become an increasingly outspoken advocate for holding on to most of the post-1967 land...

...American businessmen and politicians who have met with Party chief Leonid Brezhnev, Kosygin and on down are very impressed by the earnestness and sincerity of the Soviets...

...If Israel returns all the territories except Gaza, the difference between the hawk-dove projections would shift from 38-48 per cent to 27-36 per cent...

...Demographic forecasts are, of course, the main weapons in this argument, and each side has its own statistics...

...More skeptical observers here say that cooperation will bring financial and technological fuel for the Russian economy, but if there is a political spinoff, no one has yet noticed it.-Mark Hopkins Playing Percentages Tel Aviv-The argument over how much territory taken by Israel in 1967 can be returned to the Arabs without endangering vital security interests has again been revived here...