Sabotaging the Primaries

...Countdown '72 SABOTAGING THE PRIMARIES BY GUS TYLER On the way to the White House- between New Hampshire and Wisconsin—some funny things happened to Edmund Muskie, Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, John Lindsay, the nominating process, the campaign issues, and President Nixon Still funnier things may happen to the Democratic candidates in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, but those primaries are yet in the offing as this column goes to press Muskie, of course, came out of New Hampshire a faltering front-runner Despite his finishing well ahead of the pack—with a bigger share of the vote than that later captured by George Wallace m Flor-lda or by McGovern in Wisconsin?he was put down as a weak winner because he received less than 50 per cent Next came Florida with its fourth-place finish Thus the acid test of Muskie's durability became Wisconsin, a northern state with a heavy concentration of Polish and Slavic voters in the populous lake shore cities When Muskie finished fourth again and, more importantly, failed to carry a single one of the ethnically favorable districts, he ceased to be the Democrats' frontrunner Ironically, it is because Muskie held the lead position that he lost it He was the target for all to hit, and unlike his rivals he had to enter every primary to "prove" he was the universal favorite—at the cost of spreading his energies disastrously thin As frontrunner, the man from Maine picked up the endorsements of established party figures who felt it was the safe thing to do, but these benedictions were weak weapons in primaries where the only thing that counted was the foot soldier dragging out the voter And even Muskie's victories were interpreted as "defeats," since he didn't win big enough So now he is no longer viewed as the man most likely to get the nomination, although at this writing he still has the largest number of pledged delegates (96J4) and would probably be the strongest candidate against Nixon The immediate beneficiary of Muskie's decline was Hubert H Humphrey, who ran second in Florida In this case, second meant first, for Wallace is not likely to become the Democratic nominee, no matter how great his appeal in a southern state What made the former Vice President the official frontrunner, however, was a Gallup poll showing him far ahead as the most popular choice of his party To Humphrey, Wisconsin was the place to prove Gallup was right Yet the Happy Warrior finished third in Wisconsin—not in reality but m appearance Some 300,000 Republicans (half the GOPers voting that day) crossed over into the Democratic primary They gave McGovern about one-third of his tally and Wallace one-half of his Were it not tor this outside intervention, Humphrey would have run neck-and-neck with McGovern, and Wallace would have ended up a poor third with about 10 per cent of the vote Another factor that helped both McGovern and Wallace was the plain displeasure of many citizens with politics as usual To these voters, the two men represented the "outs" against the "ms" Among Republicans, the upper-income and the peace-minded young turned to McGovern, the lower-income and tough-minded to Wallace The irony here is that Humphrey would probably have won an open poll of all Wisconsin Democrats Moreover, at a time when the "populist" line is becoming popular, Hubert H Humphrey—the candidate whose whole background, rhetoric, and political life as leader of Minnesota's Democratic Farmer-Labor party have been truly populist—did not reap the harvest from seeds he had sown LBJ had chosen him as his running mate in 1964 and that made him inescapably one of the "ins" in 1972 The beneficiary of Humphrey's faltering was, in turn, George McGovern In Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire and Illinois, the primaries and party caucuses had suggested that the South Dakota Senator possessed some appeal and much organization In the Wisconsin test he achieved a double victory He was now up there with Muskie and Humphrey—although eagerly eschewing the label of frontrunner—and John Lindsay's consequent departure from the race made him the undisputed spokesman for the "new politics" m the Democratic party McGovern proved that he is the only Democratic Presidential aspirant with a well-oiled national machine The irony in his case is that his hard-core activists are self-proclaimed "antimachme" types, and while his troops are drawn almost exclusively from the young, intellectual, upper-income, peacenik wing ot the party, in Wisconsin they focused on the newly restless, Wallace-wooed, older, blue-collar worker...

...I have tried to keep my ear very close to the anger, frustrations and concerns of the Wallace voters," said McGovern the day after the primary "Governor Wallace hasn't got the answers, but he's articulated frustrations " McGovern's national campaign director, Gary Hart, put it more bluntly "We won because we talked about problems that concern the working man and woman, and offered solutions We have become the principal contender with Wallace for the votes of alienated, discouraged, frustrated people " The Wall Sheet Journal reported "Both Senator McGovern and Governor Wallace hammered on the same theme —that the 'system' is stacked in favor of the big interests and must be radically revised to give the 'little man' a better break What is more, the issue they both stressed—sweeping tax revision—is of front-ranking importance not only in Wisconsin but everywhere " The voter mood that surfaced m Wisconsin—a mix of economic hurt and social disaffection about what's happening on the job and in the neighborhood—had indeed been present in the earlier primaries In New Hampshire it took the form of a write-in vote supportmg Spiro Ag-new tor President that was target than Muskie's total In Florida, the Wallace vote, simplistically explained as an antibusing ballot, was really a broad-based protest of the "little guy" against the "bigwig " In Illinois, Republican crossovers into the Democratic primary went antimachme to topple Mayor Richard J Daley's choices tor governoi and state's attorney Why did the "anti" mood in Wisconsin work so strongly for McGovern and Wallace above all the others9 "The probable reason," suggested the Wall Street Journal, is that "both Mr McGovern and Mr Wallace, in different ways, clearly are antiestab-hshment candidates with long records of opposition to various national policies' It should also be noted that m a primary, where relatively few people turn out, the "anti" voters are particularly important because then anger propels them to the polls in disproportionate numbers After Wisconsin, it was clear that the major issue is the economy?jobs, pay, prices, and taxes—and that the big voting bloc to win is the working class The name of the winning candidate, on the other hand, is anything but clear In the critical count, the leading contender remains Mr Uncommitted, with 55 per cent of the delegates selected thus far The largest uncommitted delegations come from Daley's Illinois (87), Jimmy Carter's Georgia (43), and John West's South Carolina (32) By no means united, they do have one thing in common Each tends to follow the leadership of a powerful politico These blocs are likely to be the most negotiable items in any bargaining at the convention, and they could prove decisive As a result, the final irony may be the machine bosses having the last laugh next July The new rules for delegate selection were intended to give the voters as direct a voice as possible in selecting the nominee This encouraged many Democrats to run, splitting the field and leaving the uncommitted and typically "bossed" blocs in a position where they may ultimately dominate the convention Even a dark horse like Edward Kennedy ot Massachusetts could win the nomination in these circumstances Meanwhile, Republican crossover voters are threatening to make a farce ot the Democratic primaries this year As I have shown, they have already seriously distorted the outcome m some states Although the problem has always existed in certain areas, it takes on special meaning for the present campaign because of an unusual, and almost unnoted, turn of events in Illinois Unlike Wisconsin, Illinois had a 'closed primary", that is, you had to be a registered Democrat to vote m the Democratic primary Shortly before the election, however, a Federal court ruled that a closed primary was illegal, allowing Republicans to intrude in the Democratic family fight and beat up on Papa Daley If the Federal courts can invalidate closed primaries in Illinois, they can do so m other states like New York, where a well-organized Republican machine could sabotage the Democratic contest In fact, at this moment, New York's traditional closed primary is under attack A Federal district court recently ruled out the state requirement that a voter be enrolled in a party some seven months before its balloting This would have permitted residents to take part in almost any primary by registering m a party at the last minute, and it would have made raiding easy In a subsequent decision by the Court of Appeals, the original statute was revalidated The requirement for early enrollment—necessary to preserve the closed primary —was upheld The matter is now being appealed to the Supreme Court Should the highest tribunal hold the statute unconstitutional, the country will have taken a long step toward ending the closed primary, perhaps even before this year's primary campaigns are over Paradoxically, the move to knock out the New York law was initiated by the New York Civil Liberties Union to give newly enfranchised young people the right to vote in this year's party contests While bringing in the young may well liberalize the Democratic primaries, opening them completely will certainly invite batches of mischief-minded Republicans as well And in the long run, the open primary would make a shambles of the primary system and party ie-sponsibihty The Republican crossover and protest voters pose a problem lor President Nixon, too, as he attempts to assess his reelection prospects, since many of the GOP membeis who broke ranks in the pnmaries may well choose to do so again in November As the Wall Street Jom-nal pointed out, "A protest vote spells trouble for incumbents who must defend the way the system is working—and that, of course, is President Nixon's inescapable position " Furthermore, the Wisconsin primary—with its emphasis on domestic grievances—took place before Hanoi launched its spring offensive and re-fused an issue that Nixon thought he had de-fused If Nixon runs out on Vietnam, he will be accused of making a humiliating surrender after having promised an honorable settlement, if he hits back hard, he will be blamed tor reopening a war that he repeatedly pledged to end long before 1972 Thus, by November, the Indochina war could be dividing Republicans as it divided Democrats in 1968, and uniting embattled doves and embittered workers m opposition to the incumbent President...