Muskie vs. Nixon: An Early Reading
TYLER, GUS
Countdown'72 MUSKIEVS. NIXON: AN EARLY READING BY GUS TYLER In the everlasting hocus-pocus of politics, polls and primaries have become the modern counterparts of the ancient prophets and...
...They can ignore a poll or play it up, spotlight one state primary and toss another into the shadows...
...NIXON: AN EARLY READING BY GUS TYLER In the everlasting hocus-pocus of politics, polls and primaries have become the modern counterparts of the ancient prophets and oracles...
...He rose again in China, but how long can he ride on the shoulders of Mao...
...The key to interpreting the results of these first tests lies in understanding the difference between the electorate and the selec-torate: The former is the great voting populace...
...Mus-kie's standing had already been cast in doubt by a Gallup poll in late December showing Humphrey beating him 35-31 among Democrats— so long as Kennedy was excluded (included, Kennedy ran ahead of both Muskie and Humphrey...
...The media, of course, hold down a key position in our quadrennial pastime...
...He can sign a bill restricting campaign expenditures and then, several months before Election Day, capture several million dollars worth of free publicity??without equal time for the Democrats...
...In 1952 it was New Hampshire, where Senator Estes Kefauver rolled up an impressive vote, presumedly to discourage President Truman from running for reelection...
...Sam Yorty was delighted to go into New Hampshire, because the backing of Manchester newspaper publisher William Loeb is guaranteed to deliver 15 per cent of the vote in any party...
...Clearly, the selectorate is composed of the strongly motivated, whether by ideology, patronage or charismatic compulsion...
...For example, Edmund Mus-kie's rivals arranged for the Florida primary to precede the New Hampshire balloting, hoping to soften his anticipated victory in the Granite State...
...Once nominated, a candidate picks up the party vote and gains in recognition...
...He can cool the economy, freeze it, thaw it, or heat it up...
...In 1968 the spotlight moved from New Hampshire to South Dakota, Indiana, Oregon, and fateful California...
...Nonetheless, Muskie carried the state with a comfortable margin...
...In all fairness, Muskie did have two advantages: Iowa's Senator Harold Hughes and most of the party regulars backed him, and Humphrey did not campaign in the state...
...In Arizona's Camelback precincts, Muskie received 4,079 votes against McGovern's 2,625, but McGovern won five delegates to Muskie's four...
...Since the South Dakotan polls just 3 per cent of the Democratic vote nationally, he suddenly looked like a serious contender...
...These are not anti-Muskie people, but Democrats more interested in beating Nixon than in beating up on one another, and they are likely to go with Muskie at the county caucuses and state convention...
...That, at least, is one reading of the polls and primaries...
...Phase I and II lifted Nixon for three months (August to October), but lowered him in November and dumped him by January...
...The reasons for this are hardly obscure: A show of popularity helps to attract funds for costly campaigns...
...The national nominating conventions want to pick a likely winner...
...To begin with, the nation's pulse-takers have found that each year since taking office, Nixon has done more poorly than the one before in the eyes of the American people...
...he was enraged when his name was entered in the Florida primary against his wishes because there he stands to pick up little more than the few votes of people who think Wallace is spelled Y-O-R-T-Y...
...Thus, to shift the metaphor slightly, polls and primaries are magic lanterns for projecting images...
...This is particularly true for a Republican in our Democratic-majority country, because many voters will concede that the President is doing the best he can, but feel that a Democrat obviously would do better...
...Consequently, a well-organized minority that fielded a limited slate could actually end up with more delegates than a majority that ran a full slate...
...In Iowa, where delegates are chosen by caucuses and convention, he won only 35 per cent of the delegates in January...
...According to Gallup, the percentage of the population that approves of the President's performance has shrunk from 62 in 1969, to 57 in 1970, to 50 in 1971...
...In August 1971, however, following his announcement of Phase I, Nixon again moved ahead of Muskie, 4341, doing even better against Humphrey (45-36) and Edward Kennedy (45-37...
...In Arizona, Muskie polled a far greater percentage than was evident from the delegate count...
...big contributors do not give to sure losers...
...But there is, to be sure, another...
...Each voter was given as many votes as there were delegate openings in his district, with the option to cast them all for one man, or one for each of a number, or several for some, or whatever...
...By the accepted rule of thumb, an incumbent whose job rating does not fall in the 60 per cent range will not win 50 per cent of the vote...
...Another tactic is for a candidate to enter only those races where he can count on being noticed...
...In Arizona later the same month, Muskie captured 37.8 per cent of the delegates to newcomer John Lindsay's 23.6 and McGov-ern's 20.4, giving rise to the notion that if his opponents had united, the Maine would have gone under...
...Alternatively, if Muskie's support is recalculated, leaving out the "uncommitted," it comes to a convincing 54 per cent...
...And over the years the focus has been on various "crucial" states...
...By May 1970, his margin was down to 4238, and after the GOP's disastrous midterm rebuke in November he was lagging behind Muskie 40-46...
...Although the President began to slip again in November and December, he remained the top man as the new year rolled around...
...Here, no Democratic challenger can match President Nixon's control over the affairs of state that make history...
...McGovern, because he has the organized backing of the highly intense "new politics" coalitions in a number of states...
...Their appeal is wider that it is deep??a strength in a general election when many turn out, but a weakness in a primary or caucus when few bother to vote...
...Again, applying the rule of thumb, that would indicate a Muskie win, since he is presently handicapped by not being his party's standard-bearer and not having as much media exposure as Nixon, Humphrey and Kennedy...
...Using similar logic, nearly everyone is avoiding the section of Illinois that falls under Mayor Richard Daley's spell...
...Once the Iowa and Arizona results are seen in proper perspective, Muskie comes across as a strong candidate...
...The difference between a candidate's standing with the electorate as opposed to the selectorate was well illustrated by Humphrey's disappointment in Arizona...
...He can rain bombs on the Vietcong and sip champagne with Chou En-lai...
...Strength attracts the political pros, semipros and aspiring amateurs capable of turning out the relatively small number of voters who are decisive in caucuses and primaries...
...another 35 per cent stayed "uncommitted," and 22 per cent went to George McGovern...
...By pretending to foretell the future they predetermine it, or at least tend to do so...
...Whether or not Muskie can continue to surmount his most difficult hurdle, the caucuses and primaries, should be clear by May 1. The states to watch are Illinois, March 21...
...In Tennessee, Henry Jackson's backers considered moving up the state primary to give him an early boost...
...Apparently Phase I and II, for which the President had originally received cheers, were about to phase out the star...
...Moreover, the President's ability to turn the country around by a single dramatic act is, it appears, of transient value...
...This Presidential election year local partisans have been juggling primary dates, so that the favored candidate in a particular state might gain an early start in the imagery race...
...In the Spring of 1969 he was outrunning Muskie 51-35 in the Harris poll, but he began to lose ground during the summer...
...Hence, in the abracadabra of imagery, manipulating the media is another way to shape events...
...The special strengths of these candidates, though, are also their weaknesses: The intense few who come out for them in the primaries could be their only supporters on Election Day, too...
...If Muskie does not get 62 per cent of the vote in New Hampshire," say his opponents, "he will have failed...
...If I finish third in this state," says a candidate, "I will look upon it as a victory...
...Note how Nixon has used this power over the last two and a half years...
...The January (pre-Peking) results showed Muskie running even with Nixon in the Harris poll and one point behind in the Gallup poll...
...Wisconsin, April 4; Rhode Island, April 11...
...In 1960 it was West Virginia, where Hubert Humphrey hoped to turn back the rising tide of John F. Kennedy...
...Indeed, the President can almost set his poll rating by his dramatic actions: After all, he owns the ballpark and he is still the star player...
...After a steady decline, he had been able to maneuver a neat comeback...
...The reported tally was distorted by the state's unusual system of cumulative balloting...
...Overwhelming power discourages opponents and helps to keep their sympathizers at home...
...Each man, in other words, tries to throw out a fail-safe set of figures to protect and promote his image as it emerges from the successive primaries...
...The earliest Democratic primaries and caucuses also seemed to favor Nixon, if only because the Democrats were unable to make up their minds about anyone to run against him...
...Nationally, a mid-February Harris poll showed Muskie leading every other contender in his party with both Democrats and independent voters??regardless of Kennedy's presence in or absence from the race...
...Frontrunner Muskie, who looks so good in the polls, appears to be having difficulty in his own party...
...The object of the game, in short, is to appear to be the frontrunner??and as early as possible...
...In this respect, both Muskie and Humphrey lack the flash to set the selectorate on fire...
...By October, the President's lead had grown to 47-35 against Muskie in the Harris poll and 43-35 in the Gallup poll...
...Although polls are simply measures of the voters' passing mood, they are used to mold opinion...
...A poll taken in Tucson before the January 29 primary showed him leading with 40 per cent and Muskie and McGovern trailing with 26 per cent each...
...Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, both April 25...
...The Democratic hopefuls with the liveliest vibes for the selectorate are Lindsay, McGovem and Wallace: Lindsay, because among candidates who appear in black and white, he comes across in living technicolor...
...His 35 per cent of Iowa's precinct delegates represents closer to 55-60 per cent of the votes in contest, for the other big delegation consists of those on the uncommitted slate...
...and while primaries (or caucuses) are merely ways of choosing delegates, the first such selections??taking place in states with relatively few delegates??are significant for their influence on subsequent contests elsewhere...
...Yet Nixon still dominated the field, and his next feat??telecast live from China with dancing girls and all??restored his lead...
...Then in mid-January, the Harris poll announced that Nixon and Muskie were neck and neck, 42-42...
...Wallace, because he is middle America's Lindsay as played by Humphrey Bogart...
...the latter is the smaller group with more specialized reasons for voting that turns out to name delegates to conventions...
...When only a tiny fraction participated in what might be described as a miniprimary, Humphrey did not win a single delegate...
...But the survey assumed that about three-quarters of the eligibles would vote...
...With so many serious contenders, evidently the Democrats can't get it all together...
...In once crucial West Virginia, the sole contenders so far are Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace...
...For example, 13 people appeared at a caucus in one Iowa district of 400 registered Democrats, so here the selectorate consisted of 3 per cent of the party's electorate...
...Accordingly, what counts in a primary or caucus is the "intensity factor...
...Part of the preconvention game is to turn your defeats into victories and your rivals' victories into defeats...
...In the early Iowa and Arizona contests (we will consider New Hampshire and Florida in a later column), Muskie did much better than a quick reading of the headlines might suggest...
...In Arizona's Camelback area, 1,381 out of 8,000 enrolled Democrats??a larger than expected 17 per cent??participated in the primaries...
Vol. 55 • March 1972 • No. 6
