Thailand Braces for Trouble

...soldiers on five-day "rest-and-recreation" leaves from Vietnam...

...After 12 years of seeming prosperity and stability, the situation has actually become so unfavorable that many observers are wondering how much longer the military government will remain in power...

...It has happened before...

...Now we've not only stopped building the bases but have begun withdrawing our troops...

...But local analysts note that the country is experiencing its first major signs of unrest since 1958, when a series of coups d'etat and revolutions brought the present government to power...

...The fighting has not begun to threaten central Thailand, controlled by Bangkok, but Thai troops have been unable to contain Communist-trained guerillas in the North, divided from the Northeast by a low mountain range...

...Whether or not the Chinese and North Vietnamese are prepared to commit their own forces to drive all semblance of Thai authority from the northern provinces is another question--and the crucial one...

...Some sources believe these were deliberately designed to embarrass Field Marshal Thanom, a colorless father figure who has announced, perhaps only for rhetorical effect, that he would like to retire next year...

...Revolution is our standard way of changing leaders," remarked the young lecturer...

...Thailand's beautiful girls have long been top contenders on the international beauty circuit and front-page adornments at home...

...A clique within the majority United Thai People's Party, formed by General Prapas, has already disrupted Parliament with a series of noisy debates on the budget and tax reform...

...RIVALRY AT THE TOP Thailand Braces for Trouble BY DONALD KIRK Bangkok Supple young Thai girls will not compete this year for the title of "Miss Thailand" and the privilege of representing their country in international beauty contests...

...Talk of revolution sounds strangely implausible after the nation's placid popular acceptance of benevolent dictatorship for more than a decade, but it occupies a very distinct place in modern Thai history...

...official...

...While hardly earth-shaking, this decision--reached at a meeting of generals and ministers--symbolizes the nation's deep military, economic, diplomatic, and political problems...

...The basic problem is how to offset the country's unfavorable foreign trade balance and prevent the steady decline of foreign exchange reserves...

...One hears stories that Thanom and Prapas may dismiss Thanat as a scapegoat in a Cabinet reshuffle designed to placate rising criticism of the economic and foreign policy he has played a major role in formulating...

...Leaders of Thailand's Communist party, an underground organization dominated by Thais of Chinese ancestry in Bangkok, regard the several hundred square miles of "liberated zones" as the forerunners of entire "liberated provinces...

...Yet, for Thailand--long considered a "bastion of anti-Communist strength" and "America's strongest ally in Southeast Asia"--the atmosphere of uncertainty in itself represents a major change...

...Thailand would continue to face the same severe economic problems--and possibly even greater ones, since Russian officials might be much less tolerant than Americans of capitalist-style profiteering from aid and trade programs...

...There must be serious economic repercussions...

...despite its wartime "alliance" with Japan...

...Thai troops have not been able to destroy the enemy in the Northeast," he noted, "but they've kept the revolt there from growing as it has in the North...

...The opportunities for personal gain are varied: The wife of a senior Cabinet minister, for example, holds the controlling interest in a travel agency that houses U.S...

...The tax would earn the money the government needs and discourage land speculation, which in turn would lower the price of real estate for industrial purposes...

...The single most important element in the current atmosphere of incipient crisis, though, is the gradual withdrawal of U.S...

...military interests--and funds--from the entire region...

...Experienced observers here expect the situation to last another year...

...Meanwhile, the government has refused to introduce a capital gains tax on the sale of land, although speculative deals that often involve vast tracts for public development projects have brought enormous profits to senior officials, most notably Prapas...

...It is having an unsettling effect on a society used to far more stability and security than is possible in most other Southeast Asian nations...

...He predicted that younger members of the Thai Establishment would move to exploit the budding rivalry between the two top leaders, Prime Minister Thanom Kittikachorn and Deputy Prime Minister Prapas Charusathira...

...No one really knows what will happen," said a Thai official with contacts on the highest levels of both the Cabinet and the foreign diplomatic community...

...Some Thai leaders have capitalized on the American presence by investing heavily in cement, transportation and construction companies contracted by the U.S...

...Aside from levying taxes, Thai authorities seem to lack the will to cope effectively with the revolt in the northern and northeastern provinces...

...government...

...There is every reason to believe it will happen again...

...It is a period of watching and waiting without perceiving any definite answers...

...The rulers of the most durable U.S...

...The Russians might not encourage North Vietnamese military objectives in Thailand, but it seems inconceivable that the Kremlin would arm or advise the Thais in a war against insurgents allied with Hanoi...

...Yet Thai officials appear too accustomed to profiteering--all of them are deeply involved as shareholders and directors of numerous corporations--to want to consider real reforms...

...Younger members of the government may rebel, or top Cabinet ministers may repress them with greater brutality than before...

...The government could both balance the budget and encourage new industry and investment if it taxed these sales," observed an American diplomat who is disillusioned with what he regards as the short-sighted attitude of Thai leaders...

...Foreign Minister Thanat Khoman, one of Asia's most astute diplomats, indicated in a recent interview that Thailand might try to counterbalance Chinese influence with Soviet power, if the United States withdrew entirely from the region...

...In the last analysis, Bangkok still hopes to restrain the Communists by employing the diplomatic technique Thailand used to maintain its freedom from European colonialism and to avoid serious involvement in World War II: playing rival national interests against each other...

...At least 10 times since 1932, when absolute monarchy was overthrown, rebels have seized control...

...Equipped with Chinese-made automatic weapons, the guerillas are highly adept at hit-and-run warfare against unaggressive soldiers who have had little experience outside the central plain and the lowlands...

...The number of insurgents in the jungle-covered mountains and valleys of the North has reportedly tripled in the past year to more than 2,000 men, most of them members of the warlike Meo hill tribe...

...American diplomats usually attempt to minimize the impact of the cutback by arguing that Thailand achieved prosperity before the onset of the Vietnam war--and construction of bases for the planes bombing North Vietnam and Laos...

...Now the committee in charge of selecting "Miss Thailand" has decreed that "the country's situation is not favorable to the holding of beauty contests...

...One was chosen "Miss Universe" a few years ago and shortly afterward won her earthly reward: marriage to a prince...

...We may have a revolution or a civil war...

...But the Meo tribesmen, who are commanded in the field by some 200 Sino-Thai cadres, could not by themselves expand their power or influence beyond the mountains...

...Both foreign diplomats and local politicians are careful to emphasize the uncertainty of all attempts to project Thailand's future...

...It is not a popular revolt that we are witnessing, it is discontent among younger government officials and military officers," said a Thai magazine editor, who preferred anonymity in the light of the government's recently proposed press bill empowering it to arbitrarily close down newspapers and magazines...

...I do not think Moscow is willing to let Peking dominate Southeast Asia," said Thanat, a former ambassador to Washington who has been foreign minister for the past 12 years...

...He drew a sharp distinction, though, between the provinces in the North and those in the Northeast, an arid flatland where Thai forces seem to have enjoyed at least limited success in curbing Communist guerrillas...

...ally in Southeast Asia over the past quarter-century are confronting what may prove to be an impossible combination of expanding guerrilla warfare, loss of American spending, political unrest, and endemic corruption...

...Donald Kirk regularly reports in these pages from Southeast Asia...

...As evidence of Thailand's ability to shift military and diplomatic allegiance from Washington to Moscow, observers have often pointed out how easily it sided with the U.S...

...The most alarming aspect of the long-simmering war, however, is the Communists' success in consolidating so-called "liberated zones" along the Laotian border...

...They don't want to 'invade' Thailand in a conventional sense, but they hope to pin down Thai forces and assert their own power...

...Then we may see a real cataclysm," said a young university lecturer...

...The debates may indeed have been stage-managed by Prapas for that purpose, but the issues thus publicized are far from theatrical...

...And even if Moscow were to side with Thailand against China, it would not invest nearly so much money here as Washington at the height of the Vietnam war...

...Without American men, materiel and money, Thai leaders admit privately, they can neither defend their country nor balance the budget...

...Forced to increase military spending to meet the Communist revolt in the northern and northeastern provinces, Bangkok is raising taxes this year on nearly all imports as well as on local business interests...

...On the surface these measures might appear to affect only the commercial community, but in reality the burden is quickly transferred to the entire population (now estimated at 35 million) in the form of price increases...

...The United States military establishment has poured some $800 million in here in the past five years, mostly for building air bases," explained one U.S...

...Chinese Army engineers have constructed a road for transporting military supplies through northern Laos to Thailand, and regular North Vietnamese Army troops occupy much of the Laotian jungle along the Thai frontier...

...Nevertheless, the Soviet Union is unlikely to oppose North Vietnam...

...Thanom and Prapas, amid carefully contrived publicity campaigns, have given up some of their interests, but close relatives now hold the same shares...

...China and North Vietnam both view northern Laos as necessary for their own security," said an American counterinsurgency expert...

...Finally, Thanat himself seems to have lost some of his influence...