Prognosis for Allende

...The Cuban leader reportedly told him to go slowly in dealings with the United States, and thus avoid at least some of the troubles that have plagued Cuba...

...James Stanford Bradshaw, Assistant Professor of Journalism at Central Michigan University, is a former Chile AP correspondent...

...He realizes, for example, that it will take quite some time for the copper amendment to clear Chile's complex parliamentary machinery, yet he has not attempted to circumvent it...

...The President and his supporters have a healthy respect for the independence and sophistication of the Chilean voter...

...Another solution would be to increase exports to nontraditional markets, like Communist China, the USSR and Eastern Europe...

...Essentially, Allende needs time --time for Chile's disparate political elements and personalities to sort themselves out in the light of trends disclosed by the Presidential election and the reception of the new government...

...But Allende probably did not need Fidel's advice...

...experts are even predicting a world surplus...

...they know they must establish a solid record of socialist progress the next two years...

...his own moderate wing of the Socialist party...

...The peril point for Chilean democracy will come then...

...This was perhaps his outstanding failure...

...But Allende may be looking well beyond the next session of Congress...

...Allende duly rewarded the contribution of each in putting together a cabinet of four Socialists, three Communists, three Radicals, two Social Democrats, and one each from MAPU and API...

...Through its famed Corporation de Fomento (corfo), established in 1939, the government has provided capital for--and taken shares in--a wide variety of new industries...

...The first months of his regime have been marked by a resumption of trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba and Communist China, a proposal for state management of Chilean-owned banks, the expropriation of two American firms and, most importantly, the submission to Congress of a constitutional amendment that would enable the government to nationalize the entire copper industry...

...The unemployment rate is edging toward the 8 per cent level, and some plants are seeking to lay off more workers...

...To begin with, his labor policy--admirably aimed at distributing more of the wealth to the working classes--will mean more rapid wage boosts, possibly in a period of declining demand...

...Moreover, he chose not to include the U.S.-owned iron mines and banks in the purview of that legislation, feeling long-range negotiations with them would better serve his country's interests...

...He is too experienced a politician, however, not to recognize that the portion of the Chilean political spectrum they represent is rather narrow, and that his appeal must somehow be enlarged...

...Under a new constitutional amendment that became effective upon his inauguration, the President has authority to go to the country once during his term on a matter of grave national importance...

...True, Assistant Secretary of State Charles A. Meyer did attend the inaugural ceremonies and chat with Allende, but feelings of tension between the U.S...

...He also can draw upon a $200 million balance in foreign-exchange holdings, carefully nurtured by the Christian Democrats...

...At that time, all 150 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be contested, and 20 of the 50 seats in the Senate, where members serve eight years...

...Just what the unifying issue might be is as yet unclear, but one idea being bruited about is congressional reform--namely, the creation of a unicameral legislature...

...Less income, of course, would make it virtually impossible to fulfill Unidad Popular's promises of more rapid economic development...

...in the Chilean tradition, it will probably be short-lived, lasting only until the President sees an opportunity to incorporate some new elements...

...While the Congress itself might be loath to take such action, a national referendum on the matter would appeal to those who profess themselves disgusted with the politiqueria--shameless politicking--that marks present legislative procedures...

...And while Allende, regardless of his general adherence to the Moscow line, would probably prefer to remain faithful to Chile's democratic tradition, the same cannot be said of all his supporters...

...And even if he was less aware, the "scare flight" of Chilean capital and trained professionals once his election appeared certain would have driven home the point...

...Nation-wide municipal elections scheduled for March will provide the first serious test of public reaction to Allende's administration...

...Clearly Allende is committed to a Marxist vision, but he is nevertheless prepared to be patient...

...A renewed air link between Santiago and Havana, arms purchases from the Soviet bloc, or tolerance for Soviet naval vessels in Chilean harbors would certainly give rise to dangerous Pan-American tensions...

...Even the Right-Wing National party has accepted their necessity--in principle...

...Indeed, what Allende needs now is a broader base of support...

...And a further tightening of already severe import restrictions on manufactured goods will only cause price increases...

...In view of the strength of the conservative tradition in Chile--and in Latin America generally--moderate action seems the wisest political course, especially if it can be accompanied by a radical dialectic...

...So Chile's increasing production notwithstanding, some reduction in copper earnings--which last year accounted for 80 per cent of all foreign exchange is possible...

...Assuming all goes well in March, some further political alignments would be in order and by May 21, when a new session of Congress opens, Allende could feel himself on sufficiently firm ground to move ahead with a short-range reform...

...Instead of the minimal (for Chile) 5 per cent annual increase in the cost of living he had hoped to reach by 1969, the actual increase that year was 30 per cent, and in 1970, 35...

...Only slightly more than one-third of the country's 3 million voters actually voted for him in the September 4 Presidential election...

...They could prove an extremely potent political force by the next congressional elections, scheduled for 1973...

...As of this year 18-year-olds--assumed to be more radical than the older electorate--will be permitted to vote...

...A state planning commission exists, too--at least on paper...

...Following the arrests of those implicated in the slaying, an investigation produced no proof of U.S...

...Apparently the U.S...

...This may be difficult for three reasons...

...Allende's "gradualist" approach has been credited to the advice of his good friend Fidel Castro...

...MIDDLE ROAD TO SOCIALISM Prognosis for Allende BY JAMES STANFORD BRADSHAW SALVADOR ALLENDE As he had pledged during the election campaign, President Salvador Allende Gossens is proceeding deliberately and within Chile's legal framework toward further socialization...

...It includes the 50-year-old Chilean Communist party, the largest and most disciplined of the six...

...the once-powerful and formerly centrist Radical party...

...Despite the overwhelming margin of his runoff victory in the Chilean Congress last October 24, he is a minority President...

...But they will be watchful for any indication of even tacit Chilean support for activist elements at home...

...involvement...

...In short, this means that after copper--where the state already owns 51 per cent of the two biggest mines, with an option to purchase the remaining 49 per cent after 1972--Allende will have relatively little left to nationalize...

...His Cabinet is merely suited to the needs of the moment...

...The second major problem confronting Allende is that of inflation...

...In any event, should Allende find himself stymied by the Congress during the course of his term, it is not likely to be over the issues that have convulsed Chile for the past decade or so--agrarian reform, relations with Cuba, nationalization of industry...

...Any major changes, of course, would require approval and funding by the Congress--where the Christian Democrats, with 55 seats in the 150-member Chamber of Deputies and 20 in the 50-member Senate, remain the single most powerful force...

...But if by the 1973 congressional elections he has been unable to achieve broad support for his program, how will he react...

...When Frei came to power in 1964 he asserted that Chile's chronic inflationary spiral had to be halted if other economic measures were to succeed...

...nonetheless, they too have been relatively silent to date...

...Movimiento Accion Popular Unitario (mapu), a splinter group of the Christian Democrats...

...His immediate goal must be to consolidate his power through constitutional processes...

...Allende has often said that he favors a mixed economy--with most means of production in the hands of the government, some private enterprise, and other business entities in which the government would cooperate with private individuals...

...Worse still, his plurality was achieved as the candidate of Unidad Popular--a loose and restive coalition of six groups united more by his personality than by ideological similarities...

...In addition, Allende's accelerated land reform program will entail an immediate, though perhaps temporary, drop in farm production, thus tending to drive food prices higher...

...It would appear, therefore, that despite his revolutionary promises, Allende has in fact assumed the Presidency with a limited range of alternatives...

...But most of his hopes for cash center on the copper industry, where the rough doubling of production promised by Frei is just beginning...

...Chile's neighbors do not operate under the same restraints as the United States...

...Allende's promised economic policies, in other words, will to some degree operate against each other, and a downturn in the inflationary spiral is improbable...

...Allende is sure to remember, though, that in 1969 the Christian Democrats-then the ruling party --lost their majority in the Chamber...

...This amendment was passed principally with the backing of the Christian Democrats, who felt their own programs had been hamstrung by congressional politicking...

...Should copper prices weaken drastically, Allende might be forced to seek an agreement with such major copper producers as Zambia and Peru to limit exports...

...and the minuscule Social Democratic and Action Popular Independiente (api) parties...

...The crucial factor for the Right-wing governments of Peru and Argentina, and the Left-inclined military rulers of Bolivia, will be the extent of Allende's permissiveness toward Cuban- or Soviet-trained revolutionaries...

...Although they support much of Allende's program, they are an opposition party and approval could be slow in coming...

...Unfortunately, copper prices are now under pressure, and some U.S...

...The White House leaked its feelings of "dismay" at the Marxist's September 4 plurality, and notably, in Chilean eyes, President Nixon did not send a note of congratulations to Allende upon his election by the Congress...

...The railroads, the national airline, telephones, most electrical energy production, the biggest steel company--all were under state control before Allende's ascension...

...The Chilean Left, for example, has sought strenuously to link the Central Intelligence Agency to the fatal October assault on General Rene Schneider, a proponent of political neutrality for the Armed Forces...

...Like other Presidents before him, Allende hopes to stimulate national savings—a slow process, even if successful...

...The cooperative movement, especially for agricultural exports, is fairly well organized, and under former President Eduardo Frei Montalva food imports were arranged by a state entity...

...Conceivably, when he feels the time is ripe Allende could use the proviso to skirt Congress on a given issue, consolidate his power, and win the popular support he needs for his overall approach...

...These governments have no trouble in accepting Allende as a fellow nationalist, one whose aims in most instances parallel their own...

...is determined to "keep its cool" in regard to Chile's Marxist President and not risk an incident...

...Under Allende, Chile's economic ills are likely to intensify...

...A political realist, he knows the value of the "slice by slice" method of gaining desired objectives...

...By now these have been thoroughly thrashed out, and are no longer sufficiently controversial to polarize political forces...

...But his emphasis undoubtedly will be on state direction of the economy, particularly those sectors identified with foreigners, and a program of this kind requires state funds...

...The third area of great sensitivity--in large part explaining Allende's current caution--is foreign affairs...

...and Chile persist...

...First, Chile has already progressed relatively far along the road to socialism...

...Allende's hopes of winning popular favor will also be aided in the future by another new amendment to the Constitution...

...There are the iron companies, whose exports total approximately $75 million, and the nitrate companies, with exports of about $20 million...

...The communications industry, recipients of several threats shortly after the September 4 election, presumably has a measure of protection now in the "clarifications" Allende had to issue in return for Christian Democratic support in the October 24 election in the Congress...