Malaise in the Maghreb

...While a number of TU-16s, one or two squadrons of ssu-7 ground-attack aircraft and about 15 mig-23s have been moved to Libya, Soviet planes can be seen in Algeria's Sahara sky as far south as Tamanras-set...

...More unfortunate than the Scots and the Irish in a comparable situation, the Berbers have also lost their identity...

...With this characteristic realism Bourguiba has begun preparing Tunisia for his death...

...For his part, Aherdane might not mind the King depending on him for survival...

...once regional, it also commands nationwide support...

...Today, more than half the Algerians tolerate Arab class privileges, like polygamy, that fellow Muslims who still speak Berber reject egalitarianly...

...He disavows militant Arabism, effectively protects his country's Jews and?the ultimate heresy—calls for pragmatic negotiations with Israel, which he would like to see as a Muslim-Jewish secular democracy...

...A trace of Arab blood in this country is as rare as a trace of Saxon or Angle blood in Britain or America...

...The U.S...

...He wants the technocrat Nouira to succeed him, but the party apparently would like a more charismatic personality at the helm: A bill to insure the popular election of the President is currently making its way through the Destour hierarchy...

...The open-cast workings will be the biggest, richest phosphate deposits in the world...

...Algeria's chief of protocol went to Washington at the end of 1970 as charge d'affaires of the "Algerian interests section of the Guinean embassy...

...Moscow's naval and air privileges, and its 6,000 men here, are viewed as a counterbalance to the influence of 8,000 French technicians and as lip service to "revolution...

...Intimates say the haughty and distant King, called "decadent" by Arkansas' Senator William Ful-bright, has accepted the fact that he will never be a Sihanouk, a Shah of Iran, a Bourguiba, or even the echo of his father...

...By 1978, he says, Algeria will have full primary education for children 6-14...

...Berberism" survives in Morocco's cities, unlike Algeria's...

...The per capita income is $180, and an annual population increase of 3.3 per cent virtually negates the 4 per cent economic growth...

...But Spain foiled these plans by announcing an independence referendum for later this year...

...But with a $500 million annual trade surplus, it is obvious that somewhere along the line Boume-dienne's prim and doctrinaire tendencies are countered by materialistic common sense...

...In fact, Tunisia is so oriented toward private enterprise, it is even offering extraterritoriality to foreignRUSSELL WARREN HOWE, a previous NL contributor, is the Africa bureau chief of the Baltimore Sun...

...The White House delayed the El Paso deal at France's behest, pending solution to a nationalized French oil-gas company's compensation claim, but went ahead when this was squared away...

...supplies Algeria with 170 experts in oil and related fields, 16 industrial-efficiency men and 26 social services helpers...

...Both sides still have leverage, however...

...Besides, Tunisia will have trouble enough trying to employ the 10,000 university and 200,000 high school students soon to enter the job market...

...Nevertheless, Algeria's present mood is by no means international: Even cooperation with its neighbors is being reduced in an effort to give Algerian industry a crushing lead in the Maghreb...

...Affirming that Algeria's Socialism must be "based on Islam," he has puzzled Moscow and Peking by taking a hidebound, old-Muslim stance on fasting, women's status, the "Christian weekend," the Arabization of education, and polygamy...

...A two-mile phosphate jetty is being built in the Atlantic, with a $60-milHon, 60-mile Krupp conveyor belt that will deliver 2,000 tons of ore an hour to three tankers simultaneously...

...Only 90 of the present legislature's 240 members were elected by direct suffrage...

...In the wake of the Six Day War, he flew to Moscow and bid for the leadership of the Arab world...

...Tunisia's economic weakness is further reflected in the presence of 150,000 of its workers in Europe and 15,000 in Libya...

...With historic flair, Bourguiba abolished the monarchy, the veil and polygamy, and made divorce a matter to be decided in the courts...

...Whether or not all this can be achieved, of course, is another question...

...Had the summer-palace coup succeeded, that is almost certainly what Morocco would have become...

...The Muslim conquest of Tunisia and Algeria encouraged Arabism...

...ALGERIA is far wealthier in natural resources than Tunisia, but its prospects are not'as bright: The Tunisian people seem genuinely confident about the future, the Algerians strangely apathetic...

...The conquerors who brought Islam brought the Koran, not women...

...Parliament itself is the fruit of a royal constitution, approved by referendum in 1962, that gives Hassan more powers than a U.S...

...A 37.5 per cent rise in gnp is expected over the plan period, and per capita income is to go from $220 to $282...

...Tunisians scoff at his "yashmak Marxism...

...But other Westerners question the wisdom of being too close to a threatened reign, as the U.S...

...Mine flooding has cut iron production from 397,000 tons in 1969 to 161,000 tons last year...

...The regime's insecurity became evident before the coup when Rabat expressed concern over U.S...

...Yet opposition to Hassan's uninspired if benevolent autocracy was slow to form, and his throne seemed secure—until last July 10, when 1,400 cadets crashed the King's 42nd birthday party at the summer palace in Skhirat...

...The Federal Power Commission recently approved a 20-year $ 15-billion importation, by El Paso Algeria Corporation of Delaware, of 1.5 billion cubic feet a day of Algerian liquified natural gas...

...From his experiences as agriculture minister, Aherdane understands the peasants' loathing of the big landlords and recognizes the need for agrarian reform...

...The capital, Tunis, is a true '70s city—probably the only one in Africa...

...Spain is secretive about the results, but prospectors back at AI Aiun, the capital, cannot conceal their excitement...

...AFTER MOROCCO'S ABORTIVE COUP Malaise in the Maghreb BY RUSSELL WARREN HOWE ALGIERS ALTHOUGH Libya's "defection" from the Maghreb?Berber northwest Africa?nearly two years ago reemphasized this region's historic separation from the rivalry-ridden Arab Middle East, it is hardly cohesive itself...

...France, on the other hand, could no more operate its coal, auto and building industries without Algerian labor than Britain could staff public transport or public hospitals without Commonwealth immigrants...

...Although Algiers broke its official diplomatic ties with Washington in J 967, relations could hardly be more cordial...

...How much it will be stalled as Hassan consolidates his power is uncertain, but the lesson of Skhirat was obviously that Morocco's 16 million inhabitants want more democracy, not less...

...Few Algerians are more militantly "Arab" than the Cairo-educated Chairman of the Revolutionary Council, 41-year-old Mohamed Bukh'aruba, better known by his nom de guerre, Houari Boumedi-enne...

...Though legally a constitutional monarchy, its Parliament has rarely had an effective governing voice, and from 1965-70 did not function altogether...

...Recently Congress voted $4.9 million for a University of North Africa in Tangier...

...and Britain were in Libya...

...Intended as a "rubber stamp" of preselected notables, it unexpectedly rejected all new taxes in the budget bill of 1970 and has produced a major nonroyal, nonmil-itary political leader in former Agriculture Minister Mahjoubi Aher-dane...

...Yet despite its enormous difficulties, Tunisia is the most promising Maghreb country...

...While the present Saharwi income per head is under $30, the budget per head is $240...

...Some 500,000 Algerians between the ages of 16-50 work in France, sending back a yearly average of $1,400, or enough to feed 3 million of their 14 million countrymen...

...Most Algerians are openly disappointed with independence, and still seek an identity in the modern world...

...Though the old guard is fighting it, opposition parties are clearly on the way to legality...

...For the moment, though, Tunisia's stated aim remains modest: a 5.5 per cent annual economic growth, from which a 3 per cent population increase must be deducted (a third of the 5.2 million Tunisians are under 10...

...Hassan has failed to adequately develop the nation's agricultural and mineral resources, so that last year's tourism boom made Moroccan sun the country's leading export...

...Long, delicate negotiations with France on Algeria's plan to raise the posted price of French-produced Sahara oil from $2.08 a barrel to $2.85 "ended" with Algeria decreeing the price increase and France stopping imports...

...Yet with all its potential for leading the entire Maghreb into a new economic era, Africa's 43rd independent state (population 58,000) will probably be just another remote neighbor...

...In large part, this contrast is a product of their attitudes toward the past...

...President (including an irrevocable veto...

...mission under the Helvetic flag, writing its letters on Swiss government notepaper...

...Sixth Fleet operations from Rota to Naples...

...With limited local processing, the ore will go out at "88 per cent"—devastating competition for Moroccan phosphate...

...The U.S...

...based industries using ample local labor and raw materials...

...And a few well-publicized cases of cholera hampered tourism for some time...

...naval and air base at Kenitra would presumably have been closed down, "Moroccanization" would have been stepped up, and wealthy Libya would have been tapped for aid—probably at the price of Morocco's inclusion in the tenuous "Union of Arab Republics...

...Kenitra and two satellite bases cost the U.S...

...Under bilateral agreements, the government is encouraging even more to leave, for while those who go tend to be the most qualified and vigorous, their remittances help alleviate the chronic balance-of-payments problem...

...Complicating Tunisia's course right now are the heart and liver ailments of 68-year-old President Hab-ib Bourguiba, the father of modern North African nationalism...

...among African states only Nigeria, the Congo and Ethiopia rate higher in Foggy Bottom priorities...

...De Gaulle, who forgave no other African leader for defiance, spoke handsomely of Bourguiba in his memoirs...

...If there were elections today, the mp would get over half the vote, even if all the parties in the country ran...

...to Algeria he offered a share in mineral royalties from the north...

...Indeed, the "intellectual unemployed" are already numerous, and a swelling of their ranks could lead to unrest...

...About half North Africa's Berbers, who populated Western Europe after the last Ice Age, have lost their language and now speak only Arabic...

...after Nasser's death last fall, he made it clear that he no longer wanted that mantle...

...The poorest of the Maghreb nations, Tunisia is now emerging from a series of natural disasters...

...A well-staffed "American interests section of the Swiss embassy" operates the U.S...

...Fifty more American seismographic crews and 36 more drilling teams have been requested...

...He had hoped with this election, after five years of absolute rule, to be accepted as the country's leading political figure as well as its sovereign—something like Cambodia's Prince Sihanouk in his salad days...

...A million tourists by 1980," for example, seems unlikely given the current depressing atmosphere...

...Intellectual unemployment could be a problem then, as blue-collar unemployment is now...

...The United States' $728 million of assistance since 1956 makes it Morocco's main source of economic and military aid...

...Arabic is the official language, yet there are hardly any Arabs in Morocco...

...A common concern over last month's ill-fated attempt to depose Morocco's King Hassan II may make Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco hold hands for a while, but probably not for long...

...IN HOPES of mustering Algero-Mauritanian support for his claim to the mineral-rich Spanish Sahara, Hassan renounced all designs on Mauritania's territory and, informed observers report, agreed to give it the colony's southern three-quarters...

...Aherdane's first appeal was to "conscious" Berbers in the Atlas Mountains...

...But American dollars have not lifted Morocco to prosperity...

...Algerian sociologists believe the subsequent French conquest, by refusing to allow assimilation, strengthened that Arabism...

...With former Economics Minister Ahmed Ben Salah in jail for overspending his budget and with former Central Bank governor Hedi Nouira as Premier, notes the ruling Neo-Destour party's new director, Mohamed Ben Amara, nothing remains of "Destour Socialism" but social justice...

...Somehow a favorable trade balance has been achieved, and the oil and tourist industries should grow by 15 per cent a year for the next decade...

...Others, notably within the Arab League, do not hold the Tunisian President in such high regard...

...Aherdane's Mouvement Populaire (MP) now controls a parliamentary majority for important votes...

...His campaign for independence, launched in 1934 with the establishment of the Neo-Destour party, set the stage for the conservative Sultan of Morocco to fall into the role of a nationalist leader, and for the eight-year rebellion in Algeria...

...A decade ago, when it was considered "colonial" to distinguish between Arabs and Berbers, Aherdane aligned himself with the mountain Berbers, who do not speak Arabic...

...aid, and supplies insurance against Algeria (though there is no mutual defense pact...

...Senate attempts to close Kenitra...

...Algeria also depends on French advocacy for better European Common Market terms, and needs an accepted figure for crude before the Suez Canal reopens and drops the competing Gulf Oil prices...

...Russia buys much of the devalued wine crop at six or seven cents a quart, turning it into jet kerosene...

...He forced the French out of Bizerte naval base and nationalized French vineyards...

...He solicits American technology and business administration for his state enterprises—¦ which critics call "state capitalism" —and authorizes the drinking of alcohol to rid the country of its excess wine production...

...Exploration for oil, gas, iron and copper continues...

...Aherdane agrees: Although his movement lacks the wealth and "machine" of the old elitist parties, he notes that it has grassroots power?and the King's approval...

...That the two main parties—now united as the Koutla al Watania (National Front)—boycotted the 1970 balloting was a tremendous blow to Hassan's prestige...

...Some of this is burned at the seven Algerian air fields where the Soviets keep planes bearing Egyptian markings that are used to survey U.S...

...But "Berberism is the key to national unity," says a Moroccan editor...

...76 per cent are supposed to go on to high school and a like proportion of these on to further education...

...The student generation is energetic, not hung up on Islam or ideology...

...MOROCCO, the Maghreb's lone monarchy since Libya's King Idris was deposed, has had identity problems, too, in its 15 years of independence...

...They married Moors...

...Otherwise, all that really unites them is the paper-thin "Maghreb Union" —recently joined by Mauritania at Algeria's invitation—involving a bare minimum of trade liberalization, some television exchanges, and a promise of shared air and shipping lines in 1972...

...And Bourguiba favors "Francophonia," Senegalian President Leopold Senghor's plan for a French-speaking African commonwealth...

...Spreading the royal family through the Army and the gover-norates undeniably helped delay the coup, but most diplomats in Rabat think that sooner or later the monarchy will be overthrown if it does not learn to rule "popularly...

...In three more years, Boumedienne hopes to complete his Four-Year Plan and give the country its first elections and parliament since he seized power in 1965...

...Hassan wants the base to stay: It offers specialist military training for Moroccans, guarantees U.S...

...In addition he shares the distaste of the young for some of Hassan's pompous courtiers, who seem determined to bring the monarchy down with them rather than relinquish their hold on the monarch...

...the 12,-000 male Saharwis of voting age are certain to embrace nationhood, and Hassan is gnashing his teeth...

...Upon independence, it is expected to sign currency and defense pacts with Spain, which is expected to leave its 10,000 troops in the country and continue to run everything, much as now...

...And because Nouira is expected to promote closer ties to Western Europe, some visionaries see Tunis becoming a Beirut-style banking center...

...5.6 million a year...

...After eight years of independence, worker management of ex-French enterprises remains inefficient...

...A sad, single-minded, monkish bachelor, Boumedienne is testimony to the trauma of a foreign occupation similar in nature—and ultimately in brutality—to the apartheid regime of South Africa...

...The past year has seen Boumedienne become more pragmatically concerned with domestic development and relatively uninterested in foreign affairs...

...The success of the Four-Year Plan depends heavily on Washington...

...Most also agree that a reformed monarchy would be better than a Libyan-style revolutionary republic—hidebound in religion, authoritarian, chauvinist, anti-Jewish, anti-Communist, and anti-Western...

...Western proponents of maintaining the complex point to Morocco's position on the Gibraltar Straits and to Hassan's moderating voice in Arab councils...

...The new Parliament, chosen in July 1970, was starting to develop momentum at the time of the coup...

...Apparently he knows his court is resented, and the teehng is growing that he might welcome Aherdane as the front man for his challenged throne...

...Sources close to the King say he would hold elections again if the National Front agreed to participate...

...Thanks partly to drought, annual wine production is only one-third the 190-million-quart yield before independence (1956...

...Although Algeria wants to keep it in a largely agricultural role, Morocco realizes it must expand its economic base, preferably through a stronger Maghreb Union...

...The Four-Year Plan calls for an annual economic growth rate of 9 per cent...