Pompidou's Delusions of Power

...FRANCE AND THE MIDDLE EAST Pompidou's Delusions or Power by george w Paris Since his return from the United States, President Georges Pompidou has been m a quandary He cannot alter France's Middle East policy in the immediate future without losing face At the same time, several French government members are urging him to subject that policy to a thorough reappraisal very soon Otherwise, they warn, Pompidou may wake up one morning to find that he has maneuvered his country into an impossible position It is now generally admitted in Paris that the pact with Libya for the sale of 108 Mirage airplanes was concluded without sufficient regard for its long-range implications Apparently, even its promoters felt uneasy about the deal, otherwise they would have treated it with more candor When the full truth finally came out, official spokesmen repeated again and again, as if to reassure themselves "Anyhow, delivery will first start m 1971, and the initial shipment won't consist of more than 10-15 planes The rest will be staggered over a period of several years, and we are confident that the Middle East clash will be settled long before " The possibility that hostilities may not be over in a year or two was not seriously envisaged Some French leaders actually hoped their move would make Israel more amenable to concessions Instead, of course, it simply encouraged the Arabs to hold out until the day they can fly enough Mirages themselves, and peace in the region appears farther away than ever...

...What, then, are the French leaders going to do if the conflict is not terminated in 1971...

...It is true that no political strings were attached to our bargain with Tripoli But one of the government's mam arguments in justifying the deal was that otherwise the Soviets would have moved into the place France must show that this really means something for the Western camp Up to now, the Libyan leaders have been among the most fanatical enemies of Israel Unless we can bring them around to more moderate views, we will have gained nothing By arming the Libyans, we will simply aid and abet Russia's designs "The second test will take place between France and the Kremlin Pompidou considers it France's mission to prevent the Mideast conflict from turning into an open East-West confrontation He certainly will try hard to pry Russia loose from its present rigid positions But since he is scheduled to pay a state visit to Moscow next fall, he cannot be expected to do anything that might jeopardize that trip " "Well, isn't is possible," I asked, ' that m order to keep France's friendship the Soviets will grant him concessions they wouldn't make to anyone else'" "The trouble is that Russia's aims m the Middle East are fundamentally and even dramatically opposed to those of France The Soviets have an interest in keeping the Middle East pressure cooker boiling They are not really keen on an Arab victory They know that they will no longer be welcome the minute the Arabs feel they do not need them Soviet Communism remains as incompatible with Islam as it is with any other religion The Russians can maintain a foothold in the area only as long as there is a war on In contrast, once peace is established we have a good chance of replacing them in Arab lands " Under these conditions, the deputy felt, Russia has no special reason to move over and yield substantial ground to Pompidou In his eyes, France will ultimately have to recognize that the Middle East wrangle is indeed an East-West clash of wills And he thought France would find it hard to choose between the two camps President Pompidou's personal opinions on Israel's future are far removed from those generally held m the West After recent talks with President Charles Helou of Lebanon and King Hassan of Morocco, he tends to share the belief that, realistically, Israel must be obliged to turn itself into a multi-national Palestinian state Clearly, France will hardly promote the harmony it needs and desires in the area by espousing a thesis that the Pans newspaper Combat called "an invitation to the Israelis to commit suicide " In fact, more and more prominent Frenchmen are insisting that the current policy be corrected m their country's own interest France remains a nation of the West, they insist, noting that at least 75 per cent of its citizens are anti-Communist And the latest polls show 56 per cent opposed to the embargo against Israel, and 44 per cent opposed to French Mideast policy in general Moreover, no other Western democracy shares France's point of view All the Common Market countries, as well as Britain, Austria, Switzerland, and Scandinavia, beg to differ quite strongly on the matter In the long run, this cleavage could have a negative effect on the French export and tounst trade Certain economists fear that it may virtually cancel out any gams France's current policy might produce elsewhere Sooner or later, it is believed, French leaders will have to take these facts into account, if they want to preserve "a certain image of France" in the Western world...

...Will they really help build up the Arab war machine against Israel and thereby—whatever their subjective mtentions may be—play into Soviet hands7 Few responsible French politicians believe so, not out of any special sympathy for Israel, but because they feel a prolongation of the war would be totally against France's national interest One of them, a loyal Gaull-ist, said "All our projects m the Mediterranean have as a prerequisite the restoration of peace It will be only under conditions of peace that we can reap the fruits of the seeds we have planted in North Africa If there is a new full-fledged war, we know that all our efforts will have been m vain and our dreams will collapse " Preoccupation with North Africa, perhaps more than anything else, explains why a grand old nation like France promised to deliver a huge ultra-modern air force to a junta of young revolutionaries running a country that has neither the pilots nor the ground crews nor the mainGeorge W Herald reports frequently m these pages from Par,rs tenance facilities for such a fleet Contrary to widespread notions abroad, French leaders did not see this as a move against Israel at all If they are to be blamed for anything, it is that in therr eagerness to make the deal, they simply closed their minds to that aspect of the question They argued that Israel's survival was in no way threatened at this juncture, and that its neighbors would not be able to challenge it m the foreseeable future Consequently, they saw what they considered to be at least five good reasons for trying to improve their position in North Africa now 1. Tripoli promised to clamp down on Moslem rebels, whose forays from Libyan territory into the Republic of Chad imperiled the French protected regime there 2. It was high time to create a counterweight against Algeria, currently the biggest military power m North Africa Algeria has received over $300 million worth of arms from the Soviet Union, including 115 Super mig-21s and 35 other migs, and 2,000 Russian military advisers are training Algerian soldiers in the use of these planes By arming Libya, France would be strengthening pro-Western Tunisia and Morocco, which possess only about one quarter of Algiers' military equipment and still have unresolved border disputes with Algeria Larger purchases of Libyan oil would also make France less dependent on Algerian supplies 3. The contract with Tripoli was merely part of a much broader plan to protect what Pompidou has called "Europe's vulnerable underbelly" In the second week of February, King Hassan II of Morocco came to Pans and was promised delivery of various military materials, including planes In the same week, another 30 Mirages were sold to Spain during the visit of Foreign Mimster Lopez Bravo, the first trip to Pans by a high-ranking Spanish official in 34 years Other purchasing commissions from Rome and Athens recently visited France, and it is expected that the Greeks will soon buy 30 Mirage planes, too 4. As Defense Mimster Michel Debre has unhesitatingly observed, these transactions have the additional value of serving French business interests France earns about $700 million per year through the export of war materials Debre affirms that this is indispensable because the French military budget alone can no longer keep the country's armament industry going "Our current military credits are the lowest in the life of the Republic " 5. France's ultimate target is to standardize armaments throughout the Mediterranean and become the principal purveyor of weapons to most of the coastal countries This would transform the inland sea into a sort of maritime no man's land and turn France into the dominant power m the Mediterranean basin The entire scheme offers exhilarating propects to the French, and especially to the Gaullists It cannot become a reality, however, if France gets sidetracked and contributes, willingly or not, to perpetuating the war m the Middle East Thus France can be considered absolutely smcere when it says it wants peace in the area The only question is how to attain that goal, and the only differences of opinion between France and its Western allies are about methods and techniques During his talk with Pompidou in Washington, President Nixon expressed deep skepticism over Moscow's willingness to come to terms with the West in the Mediterranean According to French sources, he said the best chance of getting anywhere with the Russians still was tor the Western powers to work out a common formula among themselves and present it to Moscow He remmded the French President of the cooperation between the West's Big Three in Berlin, which had worked very well for over 20 years But Pompidou did not wish to be tied down He seemed to feel that he had better "in" with the Russians than any other Western statesman, and that he had a good chance of persuading them to change their uncompromismg attitude In the end, Nixon is reported to have said "All right, why don't you go and try9 You have our blessing, and you still have about one year to prove your point In the meantime, let us keep in touch " As a result, Pompidou will make fresh efforts to find a peace formula acceptable to all parties involved He will try to succeed before he starts shipping planes to Libya in summer 1971, a deadline sufficiently distant to pose little obstacle In 1954, Pierre Mendes-France wagered that he would make peace with Indochina within four weeks, and he won his bet Can the French President do anything that others have not attempted before him' A French middle-of-the-road deputy offered the following analysis of the situation "There are two tests ahead The first one will be m Libya...