Germany's New Political Scenario

...Brandt's popularity is soaring after the Moscow Treaty--but it had slumped earlier in the year, and the June regional elections brought small comfort to the Social Democratic party (spd...

...A lot will depend on the timing...

...The pious hope is that by then a suitable candidate will somehow "emerge...

...The Free Democrats, however, have just expelled their extreme right-wingers--the potential defectors--and everybody agrees that for the party to abandon the coalition would be tantamount to suicide...

...So the frequent visitor here feels it is time to ask, how are they doing...

...He is as yet a relatively unknown figure, even in Germany, but in the next few years he could become well-known to all of us as Willy Brandt's prime opponent--or even as his successor...

...It would be unfair, perhaps, to cast Franz-Josef Strauss as Barry Goldwater in this scenario, if only because Strauss is a highly intelligent politician...

...Of the other "young" candidates, none is at present a national figure...

...But Kohl, though (or perhaps because) he is the youngest, probably has the best long-term chances...

...Basically, then, the intraparty struggle can be seen as one between right and left...

...Still, there has never been any indication in the opinion polls that Strauss is a particularly popular man...

...Although his skills are widely admired, his designs are as widely distrusted, both at home and abroad...

...Ludwig Erhard proved as bad a Chancellor as Adenauer had said he would be--he was simply no politician...

...For all its drawbacks and ironies, a break with the past could turn the tide for the Christian Democrats...

...Besides, Kiesinger now stands on the stigmatized right of the party--not far from Strauss, who did much to put him in office...

...Barzel is, if you like, the Nixon of the cdu: He is experienced in national politics, has a tight grip on the party machine in Bonn, but lacks any great appeal to the general public...

...Should Kiesinger try to hang on, he may very well find himself faced with a palace revolt...

...John Mander, who contributes frequently to these pages, is author of The Unrevolutionary Society...

...Should the Brandt-Scheel government fall during the next three years, Rainer Barzel will almost certainly be the party's choice...

...Indeed, the present state of the cdu calls to mind the Republican party in the United States prior to its 1964 debacle...

...Given the fact that there are no by-elections under the German system, the partnership between Brandt and Foreign Minister Walter Scheel looks good for a full four-year term...

...and Gerhard Stoltenberg, who will shortly be the Minister-President of cdu-dominated Schleswig-Holstein (also in his 40s...

...Gustav Heinemann, the admirable President, has so far made little impression outside the country or, apparently, inside it...

...Some observers are amused by the current hunt for a "young" man, noting that Kiesinger would not be any older in 1973 than Adenauer was when he founded the cdu in 1945...

...Or should the party attempt an "opening to the Left" in order that it might retrieve some of the disaffected...

...And from the ensuing turmoil Barzel would probably "emerge," with Strauss' assistance, as the candidate of the party's center-right faction...

...After a second cdu defeat in 1973, under Kiesinger or Barzel, the mantle would almost surely descend upon him by default...

...Left" means a much stronger emphasis on expanding education facilities, raising inheritance taxes on large estates, a basic acceptance of Brandt's Ostpolitik, and possibly even the introduction of worker "participation" (Mitbestimmung) in managing West Germany's industries...

...The most tantalizing political question, therefore, concerns the future of the old ruling party, the Christian Democrats (cdu...

...The chief candidates to head a revamped cdu are: Rainer Barzel, the party's parliamentary leader (in his mid-40s...

...In other words, the cdu and spd have swapped positions...

...When Brandt came in it was whispered, "Once again we have a Chancellor in Bonn...

...In the longer range, though, it is Helmut Kohl of the center-left--the "Rockefeller candidate," to return to the earlier analogy--who is the best bet...

...Helmut Kohl, Minister-President of the Rhineland Palatinate (40...

...His coalition still hangs by a thread, and an erosion of Free Democrat support would bring the government down...

...In short, the party will have to make up its mind...

...But like Goldwater he is a provincial--the Catholic Chairman of the Christian Social Union, Bavaria's affiliate of the cdu--who has made some very powerful enemies, not least within his own party...

...During the 1950s this was the monolithic Adenauer-partei, staunchly anti-Communist and openly backed by the Catholic church...

...Also a Catholic, he is aligned with both the Catholic left inside the cdu--still quite powerful--and the Protestant, North German industry-oriented wing of the party, which looks to ex-Foreign Minister Gerhard Schroeder (who initiated and is now an open supporter of Ostpolitik) for leadership...

...Or, to widen the scope, what docs the political scene look like today and what does it portend for the future...

...Would a more Right-wing line bring in the voters...

...As a result, the extraordinary Party Conference scheduled for next month has been postponed until the spring...

...Who will win...

...The rub, however, is that if Kiesinger does fade from the scene--which he shows no inclination to do--he will leave a vacuum and there is certain to be a free-for-all...

...At present Strauss, together with Hamburg press magnate Axel Springer, is riding the Rightist backlash against Brandt's Ostpolitik...

...A Catholic and an old friend of Strauss (who would probably support him), he remains basically a man of the center...

...It is now the former which is in disarray, and the latter that has the Iron (well, probably bronze) Chancellor...

...At the moment it also is unlikely that Kurt Georg Kiesinger will again run as Chancellor-candidate in 1973...

...It now seems increasingly unlikely that he will ever attain the top job, though he might yet make the Foreign Ministry under another cdu Chancellor...

...This means two things: a "young" chairman, not associated with the "old" leadership, and a pronounced shift to the Left...

...Kurt-Georg Kiesinger, Erhard's successor in a "grand coalition" with Brandt's Social Democrats, was a popular figure in his early days as Chancellor...

...Heinrich Koppler, party boss in powerful North Rhine-Westphalia (in his early 40s...

...There is, to be sure, violent opposition to the left-wing proposals (evolved largely in the Kohl camp...

...Despite the potential for chaos, party strategists apparently feel a sharp break with the past may be necessary to prevent the spd from gaining an absolute majority in 1973...

...HERR 'X' Germany's New Political Scenario BY JOHN MANDER Bonn It is more than a year since Willy Brandt became West Germany's first Socialist Chancellor, and a year and a half since the election of the country's first Socialist President...

...But soon he was being dismissed by many Germans as a "shongeist"--a suave, handsome fellow and a golden-tongued orator but, like Erhard, no politician...

...But what Providence did for the cdu in granting it Konrad Adenauer, it cannot be entirely relied upon to do again for the cdu of the '70s...

...In this context "right" represents cold-war attitudes, laissez-faire economics and insistence on maintaining links with the West to the exclusion of any dabbling with dangerous East European ties (this grouping was earlier known as the "Gaullist" faction...

...Most of Kiesinger's colleagues would prefer that he did not, for even if he should lead the party to victory in that year, he would be nearing 70...

...But when "Der Alte" retired in 1963, the monolith began to crumble...