A China-Watcher in Moscow
LIU, SYDNEY
AN UNSETTLING REPORT FROM A China-Watcher in Moscow by Sydney Liu Hong Kong The Russians at Moscow airport stared at me a bit quizzically, I thought, as I walked from the jetliner to the...
...Z. Several evenings later, I was taken to the Peking Restaurant on Mayakovsky Square and led into a reserved room...
...And though Mao has temporarily gained the upper hand over his political enemies, notably Liu Shao-chi, described as "China's Khrushchev" by Peking's official press, he has not been able to eradicate them...
...I thought it was a reasonable request on the part of the Russians, given the extraordinarily ticklish nature of Moscow's relations with Peking...
...Two of the Russian diplomats I talked to even invited me to visit Moscow, promising that they would cut through a lot of the red tape if I should decide to accept the invitation...
...Mao...
...Hong Kong is widely regarded as Mecca by China-watchers around the world...
...What did I know about Yao, Mr...
...By profession, I am a "China-watcher," one of those curious people who try—from a distance—to put together a meaningful picture of developments in Mao's disturbed and powerful land...
...I was doubly pleased, therefore, when Victor informed me one day that I was to have my private audience with Mr...
...The new generation would, I predicted, try to reach some sort of rapprochement both with the Soviet Union and the U.S...
...Z. politely but firmly refused to speculate upon...
...But I was convinced, on the other hand, that my exposure to Moscow's China-watchers, especially Mr...
...From the pocket of his wrinkled light blue suit he then dug out a handful of cigars ("the best Havanas," he assured me) and insisted that I join h;m in a smoke...
...Liu, and decided it would not be wise to inform these scholars that I was merely a humble journalist...
...After he left the bar, my young saviors told me in English that they had explained a little about Hong Kong to him and assured him that no man wearing a British-cut jacket like mine could possibly be a Maoist devil...
...Let us hope that you are right, Mr...
...Tania smiled graciously but spoke not one word...
...Within days, the Soviet diplomat replied, assuring me that everything would be taken care of...
...My own guess is that the Soviet government has not yet made up its mind...
...But once in the lounge I was welcomed to the Soviet capital most cordially by a functionary who introduced himself as Victor...
...Thus began my two-week visit to Moscow...
...We sat down and he ordered drinks and dinner...
...You cannot get into Hong Kong," I suggested to the Russian, "so you want to bring Hong Kong to Moscow...
...He has a drive and a special persuasive power...
...The Russian chuckled...
...And Peking, clearly, was on everyone's mind...
...Now he was both confused and alarmed...
...Preventive war is a bad thing," he went on, "but something must be done about China...
...That," he said gravely, "would not be a good policy...
...Something must be done about China...
...Although he did not exactly guarantee that I would be able to see Mr...
...Did I have any specific Knowledge about whether the Chinese are manufacturing their own mig-21s...
...He then departed, after thanking me for sharing my views on mainland China with him and with the academic Sinologists...
...He still looked perplexed, as if uncertain whether to throw a punch or flee in terror...
...Yes, we have invited a number of Hong Kong China-watchers to meet with our China experts...
...We can dispense with that," he would say...
...Often he would bring along a female Intourist guide, a plump young lady named Irena who was determined to inform me of the glories of the Soviet capital and the virtues of Socialism...
...I know about your Hong Kong problem," I said to the Russian...
...During the next few hours, as we talked exclusively about China and the future of Sino-Soviet relations, Mr...
...Judging by the Russians I had met, scholars as well as casual acquaintances, that opinion was quite widely held in the Soviet Union...
...In the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution, China's political life is in chaos...
...I took issue with the Russians on this, too...
...He was looking glum, possibly because I had told him of my fear that the Soviet Union and China might soon become embroiled in a serious clash...
...I begged off, explaining that I was weary from travel and the excitement of arriving in Moscow...
...They have their provisions sent in directly from China," Irena informed me in an earnest whisper...
...Had I been a visitor from Mao Tse-tung's mainland China, in fact, my reception might have been celebrated with exchanges of verbal vitriol rather than with champagne toasts...
...China, I was convinced, would push ahead wi'h its nuclear weapons program...
...If Peking gets a nuclear delivery system," said one, "the first target definitely will be Moscow...
...They sift the local Chinese-language press, both Communist and non-Communist...
...In hopes of gaining some insight into the thinking on policymaking levels in Moscow, I was more than ever eager to meet with Mr...
...Another one of the Soviet specialists wanted to know whether in my opinion Chiang Ching-kuo, Chiang Kai-shek's eldest son and almost certain successor as head of the Nationalist Chinese government in Taiwan, would attempt to reach an accommodation with Peking after his father and Mao pass from the scene...
...One was to visit Wang Ming, a top Chinese Communist in the 1930s and an arch foe of Mao's who has lived in the Soviet Union for many years...
...How long did I think Mao would continue to live, he wanted to know...
...In my first personal encounter with Soviet China-watchers, two high-ranking professors from Moscow University, we talked about nothing but China for three hours straight over lunch at the downtown Moscova Restaurant...
...One reason Mao is so hostile to the Soviet Union, my host went on, is that he has a fundamental distrust of "genuine" Socialism, of Socialism that can provide a good life for the people...
...And if Mao does live that long...
...I was to meet with manifestations of this profound, almost irrational fear of Communist China in all walks of Moscow life...
...They seldom come out at all, unless it is to deliver a protest note...
...I said that my sources, along with most Hong Kong-based China-watchers, were now convinced the Chinese were indeed making their own mig-21s, copying the Soviet model—but that the planes had not been tested in combat so it was difficult for the outside world to assess their performance...
...When China fell, I skooted for Hong Kong, where for the past 10 years I have worked as a China specialist for Newsweek...
...we soon got around to the question that was on everyone's mind...
...We don't know what he is going to do with us...
...At one point in the conversation I referred to "Mr...
...Still, Mao and his followers have actually thrown a profound scare into Moscow...
...Do you know," she sa;d, "they have three cameras going at all times, taking pictures of the people who stop to look at their embassy...
...I said the Soviet government could make a better guess than I could, especially since it probably has information on his medical history...
...As we sipped pre-dinner vodka, I was soon to discover that Mr...
...This younger generation would be, said Mr...
...That's fair enough," I told her, "they can take pictures of us and I will take pictures of them...
...Z. was almost unrelievedly pessimistic...
...We shook hands...
...One or two even seemed to share my view that sooner or later the Chinese people will almost surely rebel against Mao's "reactionary" course...
...There was no way of telling...
...But here again, the nuclear program is consuming a sizable portion of the power, energy and resources that should be going into building industry and improving the standard of living...
...He took me to the opera and the circus and to Lenin's tomb...
...But the predominant view around the table was that Mao is in control and that his regime is expansionist, adventuristic and a clear and present danger to the Soviet Union...
...Mr...
...Hong Kong is in Red China, isn't it...
...there is no Soviet diplomatic mission on Hong Kong, nor are there any Russian scholars or journalists...
...We drank to that...
...instead he did invite me to breakfast at a relative's apartment in Moscow to see how the average Russian lives...
...I wrote to the Russian diplomat in Singapore (friends had warned me: "Never phone a Russian—they won't talk"), informing him that I would like to take him up on the invitation to Moscow...
...His alliance with Lin Piao, the military boss he has apparently chosen as his succesor, is of questionable value, I argued, because the Army itself is ridden with factions, many of them disloyal to Lin Piao...
...The talk about Yao seemed to depress Mr...
...But the talk of mig...
...His relative turned out to be a middle-aged woman named Tania, who apparently lived alone in a five-room apartment...
...Z., he promised he would try to set up the meeting...
...Liu," said one of the professors as we parted outs'de the restaurant...
...There is no Chinese leader to compare with Mao, either in caliber, drive or in his intense desire to recreate a revolutionary elan," I said...
...My information was that Chiang Ching-kuo would much rather reach an accommodation with Moscow, just as his father once did, in an attempt to regain power on the mainland...
...Raising his glass with a flourish, he proposed: "To Sino-Soviet solidarity...
...I had been invited to Moscow to add to the knowledge of the Soviet China-watchers, not to my own...
...But he was soon back on China's internal politics...
...I answered that the likelihood of such an accommodation was practically nil...
...Mao will then turn over the reins to the "radical younger generation," hotheads who by then will be steeped in Mao's hatred for the Soviet Union...
...The reason for my cordial reception was, of course, apparent to me...
...I wondered if the Soviet government would actually contemplate making a major preemptive strike against China...
...And Mao," continued Mr...
...The average man in Russia lives well, indeed," I remarked...
...As Marx and Lenin stared grimly down from the wall, I was led to the head of a U-shaped table at which a dozen Russian Sinologists were seated...
...Mao is in no position to embark on a military adventure against the Soviet Union, I maintained, and after Mao the situation will improve...
...Victor was somewhat embarrassed by her lecturing...
...I took my pictures without incident...
...As an example, he took Yao Wen-yuan, a 39-year-old former Shanghai literary critic who in recent years has been elevated into Mao's closest circle...
...For I came to realize that the Russians are profoundly, perhaps irrationally, frightened of Mao Tse-tung's China—so frightened that the Kremlin may ultimately initiate military moves against China that could imperil world peace...
...The second was to travel to Alma Ata, capital of the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan, so that I might see how things were on the critical border with the troubled Chinese province of Sinkiang...
...And since what happens is of tremendous importance to the Soviet Union, I (like other China-watchers) had been invited to visit Moscow and exchange views with my Soviet counterparts...
...One day we will meet in Peking," he said somberly, "a new Peking and a new China—without Mao...
...Mao's China may be relatively weak, but Mao is calling the shots and he is not rational...
...I noted that Yao had no apparent power base, either in the army or in the Communist party...
...The Russians unquestionably have a bad case of jitters about China...
...After Mao, the natural processes of liberalization will assert themselves...
...He was convinced, he said, that Mao is now in full control...
...In those 10 years, Mr...
...In Mr...
...But the needle did not puncture Victor's thick skin...
...My own reading of the situation, I replied, was that China is not an immediate threat to the Soviet Union...
...Z. was already there...
...But we are particularly interested in having you come...
...And I did know what he was talking about...
...Z. wanted to know...
...After the hour-and-a-half long breakfast, Victor and I retired to the study, and there I got a foretaste of an attitude I was to encounter in high and low places in the days ahead...
...It was Victor who proudly flicked on the color television, the best I had seen outside of Japan...
...A big man, possibly 250 pounds, he greeted me in fluent Mandarin, bowing, palms together in the Buddhist manner...
...The Russians apparently are convinced Maoist China is erratic, irrational and highly dangerous...
...At that time I was away from my home base in Hong Kong, hopping around Southeast Asia on special assignment for my employer, Newsweek magazine...
...None of the likely successors to Mao can keep this pressure in check...
...Still, I could not help but reflect upon the irony of the situation...
...He gave me a bear hug, and as I climbed the steps to the giant plane, he called out after me: "Long live the friendship of the Chinese and Russian people...
...Or: "Mr...
...It was, for instance, nearly impossible for a foreign journalist to interview a Russian of any official or academic stature...
...The questioning began tentatively, dealing with specifics...
...I realized that he was buttering me up, but false modesty aside, I could understand why Soviet Sinologists might be interested in picking my brains...
...I added the Hong Kong gossip that the marriage was arranged by and approved by Chiang Ching, Mao's powerful, anti-Soviet wife...
...he demanded to know...
...We should, must, and can do something," Mr...
...There was a general murmur of assent when one Russ;an commented glumly: "Stalin was right in trying to keep a weak China next door to Russia...
...After all, I was Chinese and could not gracefully object...
...Historically, of course, the Russians and Chinese have battled many times over vast territories in the heart of the Asian land mass...
...In Mao's mind, Socialism must be grim and Spartan and fundamentalist...
...Curious about all this attention, I finally asked one of the Russians over a drink in a Singapore bar: "Why the interest in Sydney Liu...
...But not until after the Sino-Soviet clashes took place along the Ussuri River in Siberia early last year did I decide the time was ripe...
...I was born of Chinese parents in Shanghai in 1920...
...Z. was convinced, the Soviet Union's relations with China would grow worse and worse...
...No love has been lost between the two peoples, and Moscow would be wary of China no matter who was in power in Peking...
...and other foreign correspondents, and from them I learned that the activities of the foreign press were rigidly circumscribed...
...I'maskingyou...
...You people are not allowed in...
...Solemnly, we both drained our glasses...
...As I walked back through the Moscow streets to my hotel, I wondered whether I had, in fact, given the Russians any fresh insights into China...
...But my host gave a snort...
...And wherever I went, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, the Soviet diplomats and journalists I met invariably displayed a keen interest in me...
...Despite the excesses of the Red Guards, the vast majority of the younger people—those who are at or below 45—are more interested in building a better life than in Mao's revolutionary concepts...
...We just call him Mao...
...Mao...
...What, if anything, will Moscow do...
...The young Russians, a spirited bunch whose clothes reflected an interest in Western fashion, went on to make it plain that they, too, were deeply concerned about Mao's China...
...The exploding population (750-850 million) is placing an intolerable burden on its still largely agricultural economy...
...Victor put it simply: "We are all very much worried about China...
...I was extremely eager to meet with my first Russian counterparts, but Victor, who was to be my interpreter, chief guide and "shadow" in the days ahead, insisted that I first see some of the sights in Moscow...
...Z. looked me coolly in the eye...
...Then I agreed to answer questions...
...Is he really married to one of Mao's daughters...
...They interview refugees and travelers from the mainland...
...It must be so, I read it in Pravda," I countered...
...Another advocated a quick "surgical operation" to wipe out China's nuclear potential, by which I assume he meant a major Soviet strike at the Chinese nuclear testing grounds at Lob Nhor and elsewhere...
...Nevertheless, being an itinerant China-watcher who might possibly have information or insight of value to the Soviets, I had many doors thrown open for me...
...Z. commented, the older, pro-Soviet leaders who still remain in the Chinese hierarchy will have died out...
...At present, despite all of Mao's tough talk, China is still a "paper dragon...
...A bustling man in his early 40s, he shepherded me through the airport formalities in a matter of minutes, then whisked me away in a government limousine to the National Hotel...
...From nearly every country, scholars, journalists and intelligence agents flock to the British Crown Colony off the coast of China...
...Z. countered...
...No," I explained, "it is a British Crown Colony...
...He even compared Mao to Hitler, noting that both of them had enormous egos and needed constant flattery and adulation...
...so as to devote their main energies to domestic affairs...
...Z., easily the most influential China-watcher in the Soviet government...
...AN UNSETTLING REPORT FROM A China-Watcher in Moscow by Sydney Liu Hong Kong The Russians at Moscow airport stared at me a bit quizzically, I thought, as I walked from the jetliner to the visitors' lounge...
...Victor was cagier in his attempts to impress me...
...Victor took his leave, though not before another toast, this time to "the Chinese people...
...Occasionally, however, Russian freighters visit Hong Kong and their crews are permitted to go on shore leave...
...Victor was there to see me off...
...You are much too optimistic...
...Moreover, I am sure it did not escape the Russians that I am a student of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, having embarked on a history of the PLA in 1965-66 while spending a year at Harvard's East Asian Research Center...
...What that "something" might be, however, Mr...
...Z. As a rule, I had been told, he would not talk to a Western journalist (or an Eastern one, for that matter...
...Z. laughed heartily and poured another round of vodka...
...Mao might have died at the age of 72...
...But it was apparent that neither he nor his colleague thought that my hopeful assessment was correct...
...A series of border incidents along the 4,500-mile border between China and the Soviet Union had strained relations between the two Communist giants to a point where a major conflict seemed possible...
...But now he's 75, and it looks as if we will have to wait until he is 84...
...We should, must, and can do something...
...And they constantly trade gossip and news of Mao's China...
...Z., "is no Communist, he is a nihilist...
...But Mr...
...Z. retorted: "I have read every word of Yao's...
...Z.) But Victor did not encourage my hopes along these lines, and I was hardly surprised that I never received the necessary permission to visit Alma Ata...
...Liu knows all that...
...Liu," he replied, "I'm sure you know about our problem with Hong Kong...
...and one way or another I have been following events in China ever since...
...In the days ahead, in sessions with more than a dozen of Moscow's leading academic China experts, I learned that most Russian Sinologists are profoundly pessimistic about future Soviet relations with Peking...
...It was to be an instructive visit, and an unsettling one as well...
...He asked my views, and I gave them...
...Ithentold him that I had no concrete evidence, but the very strong likelihood was that Yao did indeed marry Mao's daughter, Mao Hsiao-li, a few years ago...
...Irena would subside for a moment, but as soon as she got the chance she would be at it again—extolling Soviet color television or the new workers' houses outside the city...
...Under pressure from Peking, the British governors of the island do not grant visas to Russians...
...I also was beginning to gain the chilling impression that many of them believed the Soviet Union would have to launch a major military strike against Peking in order to oust Mao and put China back in its placesafely behind the Soviet Union as a major but subservient Asian satellite...
...He wined and dined me...
...This abnormal concentration of resources could not last long, I maintained, without creatine the conditions for a popular uprising against the Peking government...
...Z. We had been exchanging views across the table for several hours, and now he rose, indicating that he would have to take his leave...
...She tittered nervously but dutifully took me to see the brown, factory-like building in Lenin Hills...
...The silent Tania only emerged from a small anteroom to serve the breakfast, a truly sumptuous meal of caviar, sturgeon and smoked salmon (far better than anything at the hotel), followed by a really excellent chopped sirloin steak—all, naturally, washed down with Victor's favorite beverage, champagne...
...Z. was quick to comment: "We don't call him mister, nor any title...
...One night, however, I mentioned in the course of a conversation with a jowly, heavy-set Russian at the bar that I was Chinese...
...Z. brushed that line of discussion aside...
...It was with considerable anticipation, therefore, that I took off from Hong Kong for Moscow...
...Would we have to wait for Mao to die of natural causes—wait possibly for another decade...
...In fact, not one Chinese was in evidence...
...I spoke in Chinese for perhaps 20 minutes, on the general situation in China as I saw it, repeating some of the views on Mao and the succession that I had expounded at the Moscova Restaurant...
...In short, the Soviet Union, which has the most obvious reasons to want every scrap of information available about Red China, does not have a single China-watcher in this major listening post...
...I did not think it sensible at this point to mention Mr...
...Nowhere were these attitudes made clearer to me than at a seminar I conducted at a Moscow university at the request of one of its most prestigious China scholars...
...He fears the attraction of our kind of Socialism," said Mr...
...One day I asked Irena, the Intourist girl, to take me to see the Chinese Embassy...
...A few days later I was back at Moscow airport, this time to board an Aeroflot plane that would take me to New York for a stopover on my way home to Hong Kong...
...And so, I began to fear, was the far more dangerous corollary view that the "something" had to be done about China by the Soviet Union...
...I disputed this, advancing my own belief that Mao is much weaker than he appears to the outside world...
...Z.'s book, Yao was "strong and dangerous" as well as fanatically anti-Soviet...
...Another asked: "What shall we do if millions of Maoist Chinese swarm across the border...
...But if what you have is revisionism, I like it...
...Before the Communists took over in 1949, I was editor and chief correspondent for a liberal Nanking newspaper, the "New People's Daily," and in that capacity I covered many key battles after Mao's troops moved south from Manchuria...
...In many of the Chinese provinces," I noted, "Mao's orders are either carried out half-heartedly or ignored altogether...
...Sidney Liu, based in Hong Kong, is a China specialist for Newsweek...
...I also asked that I be permitted to see not only the China-watchers in the academic community, but a man I shall call (for reasons I will explain later) Mr...
...I was told that only a handful of Chinese were left around Moscow mostly pro-Soviet politicians or students who chose to remain behind when the bulk of the Chinese students in the USSR were called back to China in 1967...
...Like many people I was to meet, the two were obsessed with Mao Tse-tung and the question of his succession...
...My trip to Moscow had its beginnings, I suppose, in the spring of 1968...
...They asked about my personal history and my views on Communist China...
...The prospect of visiting the Soviet Union and swapping ideas and information with their China experts was certainly a fascinating one...
...If so, how is their performance...
...And that should bode well for Sino-So-viet relations...
...I was introduced as "Dr...
...But I, for one, would not be at all surprised if the Russians launched a major strike against China—either to knock out its nuclear capacity, topple Mao, or both...
...Let's forget about Pravda...
...Z. was a jovial man with a healthy sense of humor, knowledgeable but not snobbish, well-versed in ideology but not dogmatic...
...Mr...
...During my visit I saw a number of U.S...
...Mao, he said, has done more damage to China and to the world Communist movement than Stalin did in his later years...
...This explained why I was something of a curiosity when I strolled alone into the bar at the hotel, as I sometimes did after Victor had gone home to bed...
...After our first glass of champagne, even Victor seemed ready and willing to discuss the "China problem...
...How might that come about, I asked...
...Z. "ignorant, irrational and dangerous...
...She was visibly unnerved by the idea...
...To avoid a lengthy discussion with Victor, I reminded him that, in addition to seeing Moscow's China-watchers, I had told the Soviet authorities I would very much like to do two things...
...Then some younger patrons of the bar who had overheard us made a timely intervention, saying something in Russian that had a pacifying effect on the irate fellow...
...Liu, consider that we have adopted revisionism...
...The response to this line of reasoning was mixed...
...Well...
...He did not lecture me...
...Z. Then, with a twinkle, he asked: "Do you, Mr...
...How, asked one scholar, would I assess the Chinese threat to the Soviet Union...
...Mao...
...Z., had given me much to ponder...
...Both seemed to think that, as a result of the Cultural Revolution, Mao and his military allies were now in full command of the situation in China...
...Some of these "crewmen" display a remarkable interest in mainland affairs, to the extent of seeking out the local China-watchers for earnest discussions...
...He immediately grew quite angry...
...In exchange, I made one promise: I would not mention the names of any of the China-watchers I met in print...
...In my spacious if somewhat faded room overlooking Red Square, Victor then proceeded to break out a cold bottle of Soviet champagne...
...But I, a non-Communist Chinese and a resident of the British Crown Colony at Hong Kong, was being treated as an honored guest in the Soviet capital...
...Actually, the Russians seemed to assume that I was a Japanese...
...No, the Russians insisted, Mao was in full control—and after Mao it was quite possible that things would not get better but worse...
...I cannot say," I replied diplomatically...
...and Chiang Ching-kuo was so much fencing...
...To head off possible violence, I smiled and added that I was from Hong Kong...
...As you must know," he smiled, "in China everyone lives in 12-year cycles...
...My impression was that most of the Russians were secretely delighted to hear me stress the weaknesses of China...
...Z. had said...
...Mao is a madman...
Vol. 53 • January 1970 • No. 1
