"Cease-fire, Peace Talks-and Peace?"
SALPETER, ELIAHU
WHY ISRAEL IS SKEPTICAL Cease-fire, Peace Talks-and Peace? BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv Despite the encouraging developments of the past few weeks, Israel's enthusiasm for the American peace...
...Since Jerusalem doubts that the reinforcement of Egyptian lines can be prevented, one may safely assume it was the second part of the President's assurances that made the stronger impression...
...We are trying to provide ourselves with what we need . . . and at the same time it is our duty to stop the awesome flow of materiel to Israel...
...From a legal standpoint, the cease-fire ordered by the Security Council in 1967 was unlimited in time and binding on all four direct belligerents: Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria...
...The minority, consisting of six Gahal ministers, feels the Russians and Arabs have merely set a trap for the U.S...
...We will go along the way of political action, but I believe that what has been taken away by force will also be returned by force...
...The Russians may feel they can lull Washington into a slumber before their next move in the Middle East...
...Should Nasser abuse the cease-fire, the Israelis expect Washington to supply the arms necessary to restore equilibrium...
...The Russians may wish to keep this particular crisis simmering on a back burner, but they show no inclination to turn off the fire...
...Secretary of State William P. Rogers' proposals...
...In any event, the consensus in Jerusalem is that Moscow is still far from being convinced that the only alternative to Soviet-American confrontation in the Middle East is a genuine Arab-Israeli peace settlement...
...President Nixon's statements may have persuaded the Kremlin to cut back on its more provocative forms of support to Egypt and to take time to consolidate its gains...
...3) a cease-fire of at least three months' duration to facilitate the initiation of discussions...
...Misgivings are also widespread among the public at large, but a tenacious, if highly guarded, hope persists...
...The Israelis take it to mean that both sides would abandon this cumbersome method after the first few days and meet face-to-face in informal (and, later, formal) sessions to hammer out the agreements...
...When Nasser proclaimed his "war of attrition" on April 23, 1969, he unilaterally abrogated that ceasefire...
...Official ambivalence was reflected in the Cabinet crisis that followed the government's approval of U.S...
...BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv Despite the encouraging developments of the past few weeks, Israel's enthusiasm for the American peace initiative continues to be markedly restrained, and by no means universal...
...The 17 Cabinet ministers who voted in favor of acceptance—representatives of the Labor Alignment, the Independent Liberals and the National Religious party—were in fact highly dubious of the merits of the American plan...
...The American initiative is by no means tantamount to a peace solution...
...It contained fairly concrete outlines for territorial agreements, which all three parties rejected...
...Outweighing the legal considerations, though, were the military objections...
...They cite Nasser's own words—taken from the very speech in which he announced his country's acceptance of the Rogers initiative—as the true indication of his real intentions...
...They felt, however, that Israel could not afford to reject a peace effort strongly urged by its most powerful and reliable ally...
...What, for example, does the term "secure and recognized boundaries" mean...
...And is "peaceful settlement" equivalent to a formal peace treaty...
...When President Gamal Abdel Nasser, and after him Prime Minister Abdel Monem Rifai of Jordan, approved the "Rogers plan" last month, they were actually responding to a later and more limited approach, the "Rogers letter...
...After 22 years of frustrated hopes, most experienced observers here are skeptical that the 90-day cease-fire and the preliminary talks will ultimately lead to a just settlement of the Middle East conflict...
...As this is written, the next hurdle is devising a formula acceptable to all the parties for the actual discussions...
...Our aim, at this stage, is twofold...
...stood firmly behind its intention of maintaining an overall balance of power in the Middle East...
...ment, of the November 22, 1967 Security Council Resolution calling for Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories to "secure and recognized boundaries" in exchange for Arab recognition of its sovereignty...
...After explaining that his immediate purpose was to bring about a halt in American arms shipments to Israel, He made four revealing statements...
...Israel was nevertheless persuaded to acceed to the cease-fire by repeated private and public assurances from President Nixon...
...2) the parties' acceptance, as a basis for settleEliahu Salpeter, a past contributor to these pages, is a member of the editorial board of Ha'aretz, one of Israel's leading newspapers...
...And if we cross the Canal and Israel does not have supremacy of the air, it will have to mobilize the entire Army...
...and Israel, and will manage to eke out one concession after another while offering Israel no guarantee of its security...
...Even if all parties entered the discussions with pure motives, attainment of a just and lasting peace would be miraculous in the light of the broken promises of the past...
...The truth is that our objective is to push Israel to call up more and more of its reservists, because that will cause its econ-nomic situation to worsen...
...Most ominous of all, the Egyptians or Russians could take advantage of the open skies to move their SAM-2 and SAM-3 missile batteries right up to the Canal front line, presenting a clear threat to Israel's vital air superiority...
...Jerusalem feared that an agreement to a new, three-month cease-fire could be interpreted as a retroactive international legalization of Egypt's "war of attrition," and of hostilities that might resume...
...But the Israelis cannot help questioning Egypt's motives...
...Gunnar V. Jarring after it had been subscribed to by Israel, Egypt and Jordan, the letter established three prerequisites to serious peace negotiations: (1) agreement to a resumption of discussions under Jar-ring's auspices...
...The subsequent Rogers letter was a brief document merely concerned with how to get talks started, not with the substance of a settlement...
...proposal was considered primarily a tactical move, for the ministers who made up the majority are convinced the Arabs will sooner or later break up the talks rather than negotiate a realistic peace...
...Experts here noted a three-month respite would give Egypt's battle-weary troops a chance to recuperate, and allow for an orderly rotation of the more battered ones...
...He promised Jerusalem that the truce period would not be used by the Arabs to upset the present military situation along the Canal, and that the U.S...
...Including a draft report to be written by UN Special Envoy Dr...
...Although Israel had reservations about all three items, the most troublesome was the last...
...And if the fighting continues, its economic situation will become worse and worse...
...Whatever the formula agreed upon, before the talks can get down to such critical issues as the status of Jerusalem or the Palestinian refugees, Israel and the Arabs must arrive at a common understanding of the Security Council Resolution they supported in 1967...
...One suggestion has been a revival of the "Rhodes formula" used in 1948-49, when Israel and the Arab nations, under the guidance of Ralph Bunche, negotiated the first armistice agreements...
...Nasser's seeming willingness to negotiate, political observers here believe, is only a reflection of Moscow's present reluctance to trigger a major American military involvement in the Middle East...
...To the Arabs it means the disputants would sit in different rooms, negotiating with each other only through the UN emissary—as was indeed the case at the beginning of the Rhodes talks...
...But the Rhodes formula seems to be interpreted differently by each side...
...Thus voting to accept the U.S...
...In addition, the Egyptians would be able to repair and even strengthen the bunkers, fortifications and gun positions partially destroyed by aerial bombardment...
...The original plan (or, more accurately, plans, one for Israel-Egypt and another for Israel-Jordan) was drafted in the last weeks of 1969...
Vol. 53 • August 1970 • No. 16
