Southeast Asia Faces the Future

...Similarly, officials in Manila are insisting that American businessmen sell off much of their property over the next few years, but the United States remains the Philippines' most important trading partner...

...Thanat has more reason for fear than Indonesian military officers...

...Lee feels that other countries closer to Vietnam might adopt a neutral outlook once they adjusted to the change in America's attitude toward the war...

...Prospects for diplomatic relations between the Philippines and China at this juncture appear remote, but Marcos has made it clear that he plans economic and diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries...

...The Philippines has lost confidence in the United States over Vietnam...

...A conspicuous example is the current rift between Malaysia and the Philippines over the latter's claim to Sabah, a former British colony on north Borneo incorporated into the Malaysian federation six years ago...

...C. C. Too, chief intelligence officer for the national police force, says he fears the Chinese will begin to supply arms to the cts if the Communists win the war in Vietnam...

...At this juncture, the terrorist threat to Malaysia is slight—or at least not as serious as ct activity in the Thai provinces along the Laotian border, and certainly not comparable in strength to Indonesia's pki before its abortive coup more than three years ago...

...Since the nlf has often stated its desire for a coalition excluding the "puppet regime," Malik was in effect suggesting a solution unacceptable to the Communists...

...It is too far away," said the lieutenant after leading me on a bumpy jeep ride over twisting roads into the area of the most recent pki attempt to challenge the country's military regime...

...Despite the fact that Malaysia has avoided a military agreement with the United States, it has adopted a more "pro-American" position on Vietnam than some members of the anachronistic Southeast Asian Treaty Organization, John Foster Dulles' attempt at forming an American-supported regional front against Communist China...

...Nor was he aware of the fashionable opposition to that theory in Western intellectual circles...

...It also seems likely that a Communist success, or an American failure to break the Vietnam "stalemate," would lend support to certain urban intellectuals, students and politicians, who may not have direct ties with the Communists but quietly oppose the "new order" of President Suharto...

...One hopeful proposal for preserving some semblance of anti-Communist unity in Southeast Asia involves the development of "nonaligned" (that is, not openly pro-American) regional organizations...

...And even if some of the other Southeast Asian countries did not develop "rational" policies, Lee went on, "I will have a straight beginning with a nine but king up, and that is good enough for Singapore...

...The Labor party, drawing occasional inspiration from Peking broadcasts and leaflets, is not averse to fostering an underground force capable of weakening if not upsetting the government of Prime Minister Abdul Rahman...

...The lieutenant's view of Communist intentions was simplistic, but it reflects a fear among anti-Communist military officers that the future of Southeast Asia might somehow hinge on what happened in Vietnam...

...Lee's attitude may indicate the reaction of other Southeast Asian leaders as they begin to think about the prospect of a Communist victory or a compromise solution in Vietnam...

...But it is impossible if the nlf tries to overthrow the Thieu-Ky government...

...If the Americans go away, we are afraid some day the Communists will attack Indonesia...

...In Malaysia, on the Malay Peninsula south of Thailand, the government still must contend with Communist terriorists ?"cts," as they are known in both Malaysia and Thailand—more than 20 years after the "emergency" against the guerrillas was declared...

...The least he and other Malaysian officials seem to want out of the Paris peace talks is a compromise coalition that can blunt the Communist drive southward...

...for not supplying all the equipment they want, nevertheless do not seem happy about the possibility of an American humiliation...

...Still, we wonder why the United States cannot win the war," the lieutenant went on...

...They have a history of their own, a culture of their own...

...Still, the simmering discontent in the Philippines is not as intense as that in diplomatically "neutral" or pro-Communist countries...

...The Philippines' insistence on Sabah, leased by the Sultan of Sulu in the last century, is one manifestation of the malaise of corruption, poverty and general discontent now afflicting the country...

...The British, outnumbering their opponents by more than 10-1, appeared to have defeated the cts some years ago, but the remnants fled to the jungles along the Thai-Malayan border...

...We remember the United States drove the Japanese out of the Philippines in World War II, and we thought it would be easy for the Americans to win in Vietnam...

...In Thailand, Foreign Minister Thanat Khoman, who engineered his country's pro-American policy, regularly speaks out against the Paris talks, against concessions to the National Liberation Front (nlf), against any sign of American or South Vietnamese weakness...

...Another is the renaissance of the old Hukbalahap movement, defeated under the late President Ramon Magsaysay...

...We never thought the fighting could go on so long," said Congressman Joaquin Roces, chairman of a committee examining Philippine-American relations...

...It is also likely to increase or spread its influence after the death or retirement of Rahman, a father figure who has managed to unite Malaysia's competing ethnic groups...

...This explains why officials in this part of the world worry, too, that prolonged American involvement?a stubborn quest for victory in a situation that begs for compromise —might eventually force a drastic reduction in American aid to the rest of Asia...

...As it is, he notes, China frequently tries to send in propaganda material and maintains close underground ties with Chinese agents in Malaysia...

...At the same time, Leftist intellectuals and wealthy capitalists are collaborating on an anti-American campaign aimed at upsetting U.S...

...Military officers, while annoyed with the U.S...

...Yet, it is precisely this kind of compromise —one that makes concessions but breaks the Communist drive by demanding real concessions in return —that would allay the fears of the countries concerned about future Communist-inspired upheavals...

...All he sensed was that the closer the Communists came to Indonesia, the more likely it was for the Indonesian Communist party (pki) to revive despite a catastrophic defeat following its unsuccessful coup d'etat in late 1965...

...In the final analysis, therefore, while non-Communist Southeast Asian leaders oppose the Vietcong, they also see advantages in a compromise settlement...

...The problem is less acute in other Southeast Asian countries, where America doles out its economic aid more frugally, but even these countries question whether the United States will downgrade its other interests in the area because of the concentration on Vietnam...

...The terrorists, several hundred in all, claim their object is not to harass Thailand but to await the chance to sweep down the Malay peninsula and topple the "feudalistic" Malaysian regime...

...The Philippine government has demanded a "review" of its military agreements with the United States, but has yet to withdraw some 2,000 civic action troops from Vietnam...

...Basically they are a different type of people...

...It might be possible, as Lee has suggested, to write off Vietnam as a failure, but non-Communist governments would continue to view American military and economic aid as essential to the process of uniting and developing the region...

...They virtually ruled a sector of jungle inside Thailand before joint Thai-Malay patrols began to attack their base areas over a year ago...

...Although the more Leftist pni leaders appear to have been eliminated, some who remain give the impression they would prefer returning to the pro-Peking policies of Sukarno...

...His decision would put the Philippines in the same position as other Southeast Asian countries, since most of them at least have trade relations with the Soviet bloc...

...Indonesians do not think very much about Vietnam...

...While it is difficult to imagine the Chinese or North Vietnamese waging a war far beyond their own borders, it may be true that a Communist victory in Vietnam would encourage "wars of liberation" by other countries in the region...

...The most promising at this stage is the fledgling Association of Southeast Asian Nations, with Malaysia at the center, Thailand to the north, the Philippines to the east, and Singapore and Indonesia to the south...

...Soldiers now governed most of the villages in the area, and little children shouted "Merdeke" or Donald Kirk reports from Southeast Asia for the Washington Star...

...Members of the Indonesian Nationalist party (pni), founded by deposed dictator Sukarno in 1927, still admit their sympathy with the "old order" and view Suharto's economic programs as not much of an improvement...

...The government of President Ferdinand Marcos has relaxed anti-Huk military operations and compromised with pro-Huk politicians...

...Freedom" at passing Army vehicles...

...Perhaps the best spokesman for a non-Communist policy of economic neutrality is the Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, who has ruthlessly opposed Communist efforts to penetrate his own tight little island community...

...The Huks owe their present strength to their ability to terrorize officials in the provinces north of Manila, while exacting tribute from local businessmen...

...Military men always believe in military victory," remarked a senior defense official recently...

...the North Vietnamese and Chinese already are encouraging armed conflict in Thailand's northern and northeastern provinces, and Thai troops so far have not been able to suppress them...

...Even Prince Sihanouk, the Cambodian chief of state, who always predicted American defeat in the war, has said he wants the United States to maintain its bases in other countries to counterbalance the threat posed by China and a Communist Vietnam...

...The conditions of the post-Vietnam Communist threat vary widely from country to country, but the pattern of apprehension remains the same...

...Indonesian leaders wonder, for instance, how long the United States can keep up its renewed program of massive aid to their country and prosecute the war on a large scale...

...economic and military interests...

...The difficulty with this organization, however, is that the member states, in between flossy conferences and statements on the value of mutual cooperation, frequently become bogged down in seemingly insoluble intramural disputes...

...What concerns them is the effect a compromise would have on America's military posture elsewhere in Southeast Asia...

...The Army's Brawidjaja division, responsible for all of Eastern Java, smashed the revolt early last summer, killing or capturing most of its leaders and virtually eliminating any chance of a pki comeback in the near future...

...Expressing his views in poker terms after returning from a two-month trip to the United States and Canada, he declared that Singapore would "have a straight, ace up" if Southeast Asia were "given a chance to jell...

...FEARS AND HOPES Southeast Asia Faces the Future By Donald Kirk Jakarta The Indonesian Army lieutenant, sitting in a small bamboo-walled house in the rugged hills along the southeastern coast of Java, was not familiar with the "domino theory...

...Some Southeast Asian leaders seem to support the American position because they fear the United States might become too discouraged if defeated and embark on the policy of withdrawal foreseen by President Marcos...

...The sense of disillusionment in Manila was such that President Ferdinand Marcos recently declared the Philippines would have to reach a "modus vivendi with Red China" to compensate for America's gradual withdrawal from Asia...

...I don't believe that Thailand, for instance, can be subverted and destroyed by the same processes which have undermined South Vietnam," he said...

...Beyond the immediate range of North Vietnamese and Chinese guerrillas, attitudes toward Vietnam become more diffuse...

...The Malaysian Communists could develop into a powerful force, though, by allying with Leftist Malaysian Chinese, many of whom are members of the Labor party, one of the strongest political groups opposing the ruling United Malay Nationalist Organization...

...I do not think the American troops should leave Vietnam...

...The Southerners must accept the nlf," Indonesia's Foreign Minister Adam Malik told me...

...Students and intellectuals rail against American influence and aid, but converse in American-style English, read American books and, if they are rich enough, go to American universities...