Robert Shaplen's Asian Guide

...The old Communist-led Huk-balahaps of the early 1950s have turned into plain racketeers with little ideological substance and limited following...

...Shaplen digs beneath the surface layers of early Spanish heritage and more recent American influences to the heart of the nation...

...Partly as a result of Vietnam, Shaplen notes, "one of the healthier manifestations of the soul-searching in Southeast Asia—not only among the youth but among some of the old revolutionary leaders as well—[is] a growing awareness of the primary need for the area to turn inward and look to its own resources, to begin the 'second phase' of the Asian revolution with less dependence on the major powers...

...Since World War II, each of the region's 10 distinct nations has launched its own quest for identity, stability and economic betterment...

...After a near victory by the Communists, Indonesia is building a more rational new order that could become "the principle stabilizing force" in the region...

...While the U.S...

...With all the intrigue of a good spy novel, Shaplen reconstructs the convoluted coup attempt in 1965 by the Indonesian Communist party (pki...

...All of these elements are woven together with such fine detail and knowledgeableness that, even though the press reported instant versions of the main developments, Shaplen gives them a freshness and continuity...

...The government is now engaged in quelling a Communist insurgency drive which, Shaplen maintains, as yet poses no substantial challenge in the backward northeast provinces...

...If the Communists prevail in Vietnam negotiations and Americans back away from the region, chances are that Thailand "would turn neutral and look toward China...

...Shaplen notes that the regime of President Nguyen Van Thieu...

...Suharto must not only rebuild the economy but encourage wider political participation, while simultaneously guarding against a pki comeback...

...Southeast Asia, then, far from being "lost" to Communism or instability, is very much in the process of finding itself...

...After patiently tracing the endemic difficulties with past land reform efforts, he credits President Ferdinand E. Marcos for the latest effort...

...Shaplen, however, finds much of the old creaky structure still standing: military officers in Sumatra running plantations...

...The effort backfired and triggered the mass killings of some 300,000 Indonesians suspected of cooperating with the Communists...

...he understood that "the people of Central Java, as a whole, are not yet conscious of their place in the world and have no world outlook, that their awareness is limited to suffering and to being passive, not active...

...lingering inefficiency and corruption...

...One reason Southeast Asia will remain important is that new ideas . . .have been brought to life there, and are now beginning to find mature expression...

...In this sense, Sukarno may have driven the Communists to the point where they were hamstrung by his ardor...

...In the country's 28,000 barrios, or villages, he finds "a deep sense of isolation and an atmosphere of apathy broken only by occasional fiestas...

...The real Southeast Asia is practically obscured by America's guilt-ridden discontent over Vietnam...

...Peking hoped that its pki friends would win, but the peculiarities and psychology of Indonesia itself proved far more powerful than outside meddling...

...Indonesia's President was in poor health and willing to go to any lengths to bring the pki directly into government as his logical heir...

...Shaplen maintains that although continued economic and social help from the U.S...

...he sees no alternative to gradually diminishing the U.S...

...The U.S., Shaplen concludes, cannot forget Southeast Asia, if for no other reason than that neither the Soviets nor the Chinese will forget it...

...If time has been 'out of hand,' in Southeast Asia as elsewhere, and if events have taken place at such a dizzying pace that it has been all but impossible to keep up with them, then at least we can try to get them back 'in hand' again...

...Poor timing and organization essentially doomed the Communists, and Sukarno himself probably caused much of the fumbling...

...Even though we know now how it turned out, Shaplen sharply dramatizes how very close the pki came to success...

...in Vietnam...

...fellow, Council on Foreign Relations One of the major casualties of the Vietnam war has been the American perception of Southeast Asia's continuing revolutionary urges...

...We can try to readjust ourselves to what is still a revolutionary condition in Vietnam and seems bound to remain so indefinitely...

...The bright prospects for Singapore appear sound in the light of Lee's own early struggle against local Communists (which he won) and his grasp of regional yearnings...

...The major lesson America should draw from Vietnam is not simply to be more careful, moderate and selective in its responses, but also to understand "the difficulties of being overinvolved without being specifically commited to specific, attainable goals...

...His fall, however, was slow and unheroic-because an astute Javanese, General Suharto, carefully arranged it that way...

...The roots of the past, when the Khmer kingdom was large and glorious, further remind us of enduring rivalries with Vietnam (Sihanouk's greatest fear) and Thailand...

...He neglected to note that few customers were found outside Vietnam...

...The Lost Revolution, and who follow his magazine reports, it will come as no shock that we have missed the boat in Vietnam...

...He seized upon Communist rumors of a plot by the Army to take power and stop the pki...

...As a counterweight to Peking's indirect pressures, both Malaysia and Singapore are drawing closer to the Soviet Union, particularly on economic matters, hoping "for a joint American-Russian effort to guarantee the neutrality of Southeast Asia...

...This "shuttlecock diplomacy," however, is the work of a "self-driven and dedicated man...

...By highlighting the forces at work, Shaplen prepares us for jolts that are sure to come eventually...

...Elsewhere, the results are far more encouraging, though incomplete...

...Nonetheless, he is disturbed by a sense of overoptimism in Bangkok that appears "oddly and perhaps ominously reminiscent of the situation several years earlier in Vietnam...

...Cambodia's Norodom Sihanouk has managed to stave off both China and North Vietnam, and is striving to remain neutral and independent...

...If Ho Chi Minh has outlasted American political patience, "most of the rest of Southeast Asia is grateful for what degree of patience and fortitude we have demonstrated...

...Other nonaligned countries there could join Indonesia to create a powerful new "third force," the author suggests...

...This analysis is particularly credible against the richly painted backdrop of Indonesian politics, which Shaplen views as an aspect of the country's perpetual search for national identity...

...A careful study of Shaplen's impressive book, though, indicates that most of the continuing Southeast Asian revolutions follow much different—and less hazardous—paths than the conflict in Vietnam...

...Perhaps just in time, Robert Shaplen's penetrating survey provides a unique guide to the new realities taking shape in this still crucial region...

...But the big question is whether Marcos, up for reelection this year, will tackle the landlords and other oligarchic elements to force through revolutionary changes...

...If he meets these challenges, his nation—with half the people of Southeast Asia and vast natural resources—could serve as the chief stabilizing force in the region...

...Despite the endless debate, our vision has been dimmed not only by Vietnam disappointments, but because its focus was too narrow at the outset...

...Here, among its population of roughly a quarter of a billion, are the forces that in the future "may determine the political equilibrium of all Asia...

...The author firmly rejects simply writing off Vietnam and withdrawing precipitously...

...He shuns slick stereotypes and grand theoretical designs to approach each country in terms of its own historical forces, culture, leaders, and basic aspirations...

...The shifting bureaucratic approaches, the continual rotation of Americans, and the force-feeding of Western democracy are among the U.S...

...He thoroughly connects the happenings that make "news" with the more fundamental influences that largely shape Southeast Asian events...

...Somehow, the Laotian belief in phis, or animistic spirits, and the easy tolerance of friendly outsiders suggest a resilience that the black newspaper headlines blot out...

...Once the reader understands how much Javanese values and mysticism influence national attitudes, he can appreciate former President Sukarno's almost hypnotic hold on his countrymen for 20 years...

...But a balanced appraisal shows how this loosely constructed and sparsely populated country—under the probable joint protection of the Soviets and the Americans—is likely to make it against all odds...

...It feeds a desire for excitement and color that turns the democratic process into a form of gamesmanship and diversion...

...President Johnson often portrayed the conflict with the blurred, grainy quality of an old Western movie—the good guys rounding up the bad men, who peddled Peking's revolutionary warfare strategy throughout the Asian hinterlands...

...The separation of predominantly Chinese Singapore from Malay-controlled Malaysia initially shook confidence in that part of Asia, which Britain left with democratic institutions and economic foundations...

...Scarcely affected by the revolutionary tides that have swept Asia, the Filipinos are still groping for a meaningful national cause...

...sincerely striving to remain neutral and independent, while the countries surrounding him in Southeast Asia were at war...

...has failed to grasp the nature of the Vietnamese revolution," the political failure has been primarily South Vietnamese...

...In the process, he also engagingly chronicles the region's major events of recent years, including superb accounts of the abortive Communist coup in Indonesia and the Tet offensive in Vietnam...

...To those who read Shaplen's earlier book...

...With its established monarchy and a tight military oligarchy, the Asian revolution is not apt to sweep Thailand soon...

...Shaplen demonstrates, almost affectionately, that there is more at work in the little land than the spillover of war from Vietnam...

...The Communists have captured only one of these nationalist revolutions, that of Vietnam...

...As one Indonesian in Central Java observes, Sukarno knew his Javanese people well...

...Paradoxically, the United States has invested enormous military and emotional resources in Vietnam, and yet has lost a full awareness of the total region it is supposedly trying to protect...

...Under the shrewd leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore is proving that a small, hard-working country can prosper and grow without a permanent foreign military presence...

...As President, Suharto's leadership is "more practical than passionate," and his emphasis on stability, while admirable, tends to stifle the development of new civilian political activity...

...The possible beginnings are already taking shape through such organizations as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (asean), which also includes Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines...

...The New Yorker's man in Asia and a correspondent with more than two decades of experience in the East, Shaplen is nothing less than the best-informed, most thorough journalist covering the area...

...and China may soften, permitting native nationalism to emerge more strongly...

...Sukarno's unquestionable involvement in the Communist takeover bid is definitely established, too...

...The Thais have allowed American planes to launch bombing raids against Laos and Vietnam from their never-colonized kingdom...

...Strangely enough, a substantial threat is posed by an American contribution that has been distorted: the country's unusually free, highly irresponsible press...

...military men who dare to use modern weapons in a shooting war...

...That would be "perfectly in keeping with its historical traditions and diplomacy," which tend to bend with the winds of the East...

...Although Communist Vietnamese troops have taken refuge along Cambodian borders, Shaplen finds Sihanouk moving back toward a genuine balance and more friendly relations with the U.S...

...A potentially more dangerous guerrilla threat lurks in the Moslem southern Thai provinces near the Malaysia border...

...Laos, a buffer state through which Hanoi feeds its forces into South Vietnam, often seems on the verge of falling apart...

...The island republic of Singapore, abruptly divorced from Malaysia in 1965 and now faced with complete British military withdrawal in 1971, is on its way to becoming the Israel of Southeast Asia...

...How then could the coup have failed...

...The Southeast Asian nations are reaching out for new solutions, ranging from regional organizations for economic cooperation to possible evolution of a non-aligned group of nations that could accept aid from both Communist and democratic powers without becoming either satellites or client states...

...For the Prince, after all, sees the threat of Communism at closer range than any other Eastern leader, except possibly Singapore's Lee...

...Even the tiny, nonnation of Laos now stands a reasonable chance of survival...

...In contrast, Malaysia has a somewhat less certain future...

...so lavishly praised by Washington, lacks "an effective organization and true nationalist zeal," and "scarcely represents a national consensus...

...Saigon's leaders lost their opportunities to reorganize the politically powerful Army, and they have yet to fully prosecute programs of social revolution...

...It is plagued by stronger racial and communal undercurrents, a resurgence of Communist party activities, and the wavering world market for its tin and rubber exports...

...Once that happens (and Shaplen leaves us in considerable doubt about Saigon's readiness), there may be hope of winning over even some Communist cadre-men for a nationalist revolution...

...and Europe will be required, plus a degree of military protection, the relationship between givers and receivers has undergone a radical change...

...Sukarno cleverly projected himself as the personification of that quest, achieving for awhile the status of a legendary figure...

...Prince Sihanouk's Cambodia, on the other hand, plays a balancing game that annoys Washington but manages to fend off domination by Hanoi, Peking and other powers...

...Thus, an examination of Indonesia begins with a fascinating look at the spiritual, ethnic and social forces of Java, the dominant island of the archipelago...

...The Philippines need, most of all, "a thorough social shake-up...

...commitment, "keeping in mind that the manner and method of our withdrawal" are vital not only to South Vietnam but to all of Southeast Asia...

...The most uncertain future awaits Thailand, a supposedly staunch American ally that has gone further than its leaders intended in openly joining the U.S...

...This is true of other countries in Southeast Asia, above all of Indonesia, and of much of the rest of the world...

...The Filipinos seem on the verge of some "dramatic change"—either with Marcos becoming the first President ever to win a second term and a chance to "make good his call to greatness," or a possible swing toward a New Left of ultranational-ists...

...But, Shaplen explains, one of the results was the emergence of Lee, "a Western-educated Socialist chief of a multiracial state with a progressive capitalist economy, as a potential . . . world statesman...

...the nation ran amok in a frequently indiscriminate lust for revenge...

...The opportunity for finding an ultimate "southern revolutionary solution" remains, Shaplen avers, but it depends on the Americans not departing too quickly and on the South Vietnamese finally starting to overhaul their system for a decisive political contest with the Communists...

...Many American intellectuals reacted churlishly and presented equally distorted versions of the struggle, making folk heroes of Communist guerrillas in the jungles and casting as villians U.S...

...The Philippines, though troubled with lawlessness and an insatiable demand for surface excitement, is actually exporting rice and probably on the verge of more dramatic fulfillment...

...and a failure so far to mobilize the energies of idealistic youth who helped oust Sukarno...

...The gradual, outwardly polite, indirect approach is the way of Java...

...The island's excellent port and processing plants give it a natural complimentary role to nearby Indonesia...

...In the future, he suggests, the influences of both the U.S...

...Change is more likely in the kingdom's foreign affairs...

...Shaplen points out that these ancient forces are formidable, as is a deep suspicion of China...

...Prime Minister Lee has developed new industries, vast public housing facilities and a feeling of nationhood among his constituents—Chinese, Malays, Indians, and other races...

...But the most serious error, Shaplen contends, is the lack of "clear and positive objectives...

...mistakes...

...And there is probably more to the notion than wishful thinking because of intensive Soviet efforts to compete with China in the region by promoting trade, diplomatic and cultural contacts—not guerrilla warfare...

...Shaplen firmly endorses Lee's broad vision of Singapore as a "spark plug" for regional cooperation and gradual evolution of a neutral bloc...

...Since the new regime under Suharto vigorously places economic recovery and development above politics, in a sense the country is starting over again on a more reasonable, constructive basis...