Doves and 'Coups' in Vietnam

...Communist politicians would soon take over the new "coalition," according to this reasoning, and eventually form a reunified, Communist Vietnam...

...The factions which fought against Minh's return were also the most strongly opposed to a compromise or coalition with the Communists...

...Thieu will need to ask the incoming President for more time—more time to complete the military defeat of the Communists, to counter their plan to send political cadre through the countryside after a cease-fire, to consolidate his leadership and somehow keep the competing factions from fighting each other...

...Loan, now living at Tonsonnhut air base, was believed to have rallied Air Force officers still loyal to Ky...

...In this atmosphere of deepest suspicion on both sides, Thieu ordered the alert on the night of October 8. Just as the President did not want publicity surrounding General Minh's arrival from Bangkok, so he would have preferred to keep the alert a secret...

...I don't have any worry with Johnson," Thieu continued...

...To some of these politicians Minh personified their greatest hatred: the southern Buddhists who overthrew the Diem regime...

...With the exception of the Buddhist leaders, most Vietnamese officials would feel more secure if Nixon defeated Humphrey...

...But they could help the Communists whom they abhor by deepening divisions between factions and immobilizing the government...

...For all the plotting and counter-plotting, rumors and denials, Thieu appears to have made a genuine attempt at broadening his government...

...Americanization is the cause of failure," ran a typical Chanh Dao commentary on the "disastrous consequences of the policy of Americanization...

...In a capital seared by rumors and contrasts, Hien's outlook may have reflected the new confidence of some of South Vietnam's more influential politicians...

...The night following the Senate reception, Economics Minister Au Ngoc Ho received a message over shortwave radio from the office of Prime Minister Tran Van Huong...

...I support any serious contender," he said with his usual smile when pressed to name a favorite...

...Thieu might have preferred to have kept the timing of Minh's arrival a secret, at least for several hours, but officials in Bangkok had already told reporters they were giving a farewell party for him before he boarded the plane...

...If the next American President is unwilling to grant Thieu more time, Ky and his allies might move to take control...

...DUONG VAN MINH said a halt in the bombing was 'absurd'," said Hien...

...On the day "Big Minh" arrived several hundred policemen guarded the approaches to the airport and the vip lounge where his family, officials and sympathetic politicians were waiting to greet him...

...The Communists, mostly North Vietnamese regulars, had attacked outposts near the Cambodian border or the Demilitarized Zone, tried to overrun isolated Special Forces camps, and harassed major bases or cities by haphazard rocket or mortar barrages...

...The country had recovered from Tet and "the second wave...

...Not surprisingly, the upcoming American Presidential elections are viewed here as an extension of Saigon's internal conflicts...

...Significantly, he added he would like to meet the Presidentelect with Lyndon Johnson soon after the election...

...It may never be known just what Ky or his military allies had done to warrant an alert...

...And even then jealous officers might try to seize power for themselves to form a military dictatorship similar to those supported by the United States in Latin America and elsewhere...

...I am very optimistic," said Hien, previously noted for his accusations of "softness" against South Vietnam leaders and his suspicion of a "sellout" by their American benefactors...

...With Minh as a "special advisor," Thieu thought his regime might gain the loyalty of the country's overwhelming Buddhist majority, many of whose leaders have opposed the government ever since the Diem era...

...If Thieu had not succeeded in solidifying his own position during the alert, it was because the unwanted publicity had forced him to cancel his plans...

...The combination of fear for South Vietnam's future, suspicion of America's intentions and old-fashioned religious and political rivalries was exacerbated by the return to Saigon of General Duong Van Minh...

...Thieu appointed several Diem officials to his Cabinet in May, and he also has appointed two Can Lao colonels to important intelligence positions...

...The United States will not stop the bombing of North Vietnam...

...Thieu himself is careful not to take sides...

...themselves, they could point to a series of anti-American comments in Chanh Dao, a newspaper reflecting the views of the An Quang group, as proof of the Buddhists' desire to downgrade American military support and bargain with the enemy...

...At the heart of the dispute was the same old fear that the government might relent under American pressure and settle for a humiliating compromise...

...With all the American troops in South Vietnam, it is unlikely that military dissidents could overthrow the Thieu regime...

...Catholics and northerners complain that Thieu yields to the Buddhists, while militant Buddhists appear equally certain he wants to return old-time Diemists to positions of influence...

...He is willing to talk peace but he showed how North Vietnam uses the Paris talks for its own purposes...

...Besides discontented senior officers, the opponents of "Big Minh"—and Thieu—included northern Catholics and one-time members of the Can Lao party, Diem's old political force...

...American soldiers and Marines had uncovered large caches of arms and ammunition from the dmz to the Delta...

...The day after his denial, government sources disclosed that troops were only on "50 per cent alert" or back to their routine posture...

...The final result might be to convince the next American President of the futility of prosecuting the war any longer...

...The broad-shouldered southerner had led the revolt against dictator Ngo Dinh Diem five years ago and then served three months as chief of state until he himself was ousted in another coup and exiled to the Thai capital of Bangkok...

...Senator Hien endorsed a speech by President Nguyen Van Thieu condemning those who charged the government had changed its attitude and was willing to compromise...

...A further development of the plot, in the minds of these hawks, would be a decision by President Johnson to halt the bombing of North Vietnam without assurances of reciprocal action from Hanoi...

...Another prime suspect was Brigadier General Nguyen Ngoc Loan, who was director of national police and Ky's closest ally until he was seriously wounded in the fighting in Saigon last May...

...But I could not keep quiet if the future of my country were in jeopardy...

...The irony of the homecoming was that Thieu had hoped Minh's popularity among southern Buddhists and military officers would help unify the country's conflicting factions...

...Among those suspected of having attempted a coup was Major General Le Nguyen Khang, whom Thieu had removed .last summer as military commander of the Capital Military District?Saigon—and of III Corps, the provinces surrounding the capital...

...Some observers think that Ky and his allies had really done nothing?except state some rather strong views—and that Thieu had alerted the troops so he could arrest his enemies without fear of reprisals...

...At the same time, Thieu and Prime Minister Tran Van Huong—like Minh a southern Buddhist—have waged an anti-corruption campaign that resulted in the dismissal of a number of mid-level officials, notably province and district chiefs appointed by Ky...

...Not until the next day did government officials admit that President Thieu had put the Army on alert and restricted all soldiers to their barracks...

...I was told to listen for some important news," said Ho, a Montana-educated former dairy company executive...

...Then he talked about the future of democracy in Vietnam...

...He seemed unconcerned about rumors that President Johnson would stop the bombing shortly before the election in a desperate bid to turn the tide in Hubert Humphrey's favor...

...Militarily, the optimism of Thieu and some of his ministers may be justified...

...He is quite reasonable...

...The danger, as officials noted, was "not from the Viet-cong" but from a coterie of dissident officers in Thieu's own military establishment...

...Doves and 'Coups' in Vietnam By Donald Kirk Saigon At a reception this month marking the first anniversary of South Vietnam's National Assembly, Nguyen Gia Hien, outspoken leader of a noisy clique of Catholic refugees in the Senate, was chewing on a stubby cigar and talking about his recent trip to Lima...

...He grinned when reminded that a military regime staged a coup in Peru shortly after the delegates had finished their tribute to libertarian democracy...

...I think the Communists have virtually lost militarily," he said, smiling blandly into the glaring TV lights...

...it had withstood the beginnings of a "third wave...

...While Thieu might have been certain that neither "Big Minh" nor the Americans advocated such a plot, he probably guessed that Ky and his sympathizers would try to exploit the rumors as an excuse for a coup d'etat...

...They had suffered heavy losses without a significant victory...

...Now they have moved to political war to win their goals...

...He has discussed with me very long about that in Honolulu...

...General Khang, who still commanded the 7,000-man Vietnamese Marine Corps, one of the country's elite fighting units, was said to have ordered Marines into the city...

...But in an interview at his home, Khang calmly denied all knowledge of the affair and noted that four of six Marine battalions were on operations elsewhere...

...But the Saigon Post, owned by the brother of Bui Diem, Vietnam's ambassador to Washington and a friend of Ky's, revealed the move in a lead article reporting that Thieu had received "many intelligence reports pointing to the desire of certain people to stage a show of strength in support of their political ambitions...

...For the first time since the elections more than a year ago, these politicians believed the war was going well...

...And Vietnamese reporters wondered whether extra soldiers assigned to the houses of prominent generals were there to protect them or to keep them under virtual house arrest...

...So admired is Minh, particularly in the densely populated Mekong River Delta region where he was born, that some observers thought he might have defeated Thieu in the Presidential election last year...

...I have remained silent for a long time," Ky said at a party several weeks ago...

...Minh had remained in exile, however, while the government disqualified him on the technical grounds that his Vice Presidential running mate was once a French citizen...

...Although some of Vietnam's biggest hawks have no great affection for the U.S...

...Hien had led a delegation of South Vietnamese senators and deputies to the conference of the Inter-Parliamentarian Union in the Peruvian capital...

...Our situation is much improved...

...They are afraid that Humphrey—swayed by the liberals in his own party, anxious to dissociate himself from the unpopular policies of his predecessor—would stop bombing the North, force Thieu to move too fast, and eventually put the government in a position in which it might have to consider serious concessions...

...While Hien praised Thieu's speech, the President himself spoke to reporters a few feet away on the terrace of Dien Hong palace, the old Senate building overlooking the harbor...

...Both agreed, he said, that a total bombing halt "without reciprocity would bring more disadvantages than advantages...

...Ambassador Ellsworth Bunker, other American diplomats and senior military officers might have soothed Thieu and some doubting senators and deputies (notably those who had gone abroad at government expense), but little short of total victory could convince the hard-core opposition of America's good faith...

...Among these was the powerful group of military leaders born in North Vietnam and identified politically with Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky, who had always advocated a tougher line than Thieu, even favoring an invasion of the North...

...Thieu Donald Kirk reports from Southeast Asia for the Washington Star...

...Thieu publicly denied he had put down a coup d'etat or arrested anyone, but official sources in Saigon believed several officers had been picked up for questioning...

...Indeed, conspiracy-minded Vietnamese politicians, including Buddhists who privately called for negotiations and coalition, believed Johnson and Thieu had already settled on a compromise course that began with Thieu's decision to send his Interior Minister, General Tran Thien Khiem, to negotiate with Minh in Bangkok...

...It was not difficult for these Catholic politicians and military leaders to reason that Thieu must have agreed with Minh to form a new government, which then would recognize the National Liberation Front and arrange for a coalition with the Communists...

...Indeed, because of these fears, hawks like Ky might even prefer George Wallace, although they do not seem to regard the Alabaman as a serious candidate...

...It was the first time I received such a message since the new Cabinet was formed in May...

...After an increase during late August and September, the tempo of fighting had receded to almost the same level of lull that prevailed earlier in the summer...

...Confident though he may have appeared at the Senate reception, Thieu foresaw these disasters when he alerted the troops at the first signs of possible trouble with his opponents...

...With the military situation deteriorating in the South after the bombing, Minh would emerge in his true role of compromiser...

...General Minh further aroused their suspicions by receiving a delegation from the An Quang pagoda, headquarters of the militant Buddhists, at his home soon after he returned...

...It was the political struggle, however, that threatened to undermine the shallow foundations of new confidence in Saigon...