Politics in Saigon
KIRK, DONALD
THE PROSPECTS FOR CHANGE Saigon The city has almost returned to wartime normalcy. The streets are crowded with cars and trucks and motorscooters, the shops are jammed with gleaming Western...
...Perhaps Hanoi in return would recognize the Saigon government in peace talks...
...Information Agency, and met both Averell Har-riman and William Bundy...
...The best formula is for South Vietnam to have a government emerging directly from a general election...
...Although he claims government charges against him of financial manipulation are false, most observers here believe he has been deeply involved in amassing illegal overseas bank accounts...
...The people have no idea why they are fighting...
...Sometime in the next few months, possibly after the American Presidential election, Thieu and Ky may have to yield, perhaps with a conciliatory gesture if not on a point of principle...
...At the moment, none of the opposition politicians in Vietnam appears to have enough power to force Thieu and Ky to recast their thinking, much less to resign their positions...
...Coalition imposed by an international conference will set Vietnam against the principle of self-determination," said Thanh...
...Everyone wants the fighting to stop...
...I'm only trying to sell what you see on my shelves," said a merchant along a crowded street of shops in Cholon, the city's Chinese district...
...More significant than Ho Thong Minh are the two politicians with whom he shared a national police villa for part of his period in custody: Au Truong Thanh, a former finance minister...
...With the Armed Forces increasing in strength—thanks to American aid and Thieu's mobilization plans?a coup d'etat would be almost impossible, except by military leaders, and Thieu has convinced most of them of the necessity of hanging together against the twin threats of Communism and an American "sell-out...
...While Saigon's official attitude is well known, the reaction of politicians, professors, editors and the like has been less publicized, partly because of government censorship of the press and the fear of reprisals by national police...
...For all the risks, after his release, Dzu was as willing as ever to crusade for coalition...
...They want only cheap goods and food...
...I don't bother about politics," said the driver of a three-wheeled pedicab...
...When Thieu says we should keep on fighting, he should be reminded that we've been fighting for 20 years," said the editor of a major South Vietnamese paper...
...Loc, on the other hand, already has the advantage of serving as an effective "buffer" between Thieu and Ky, who are still regarded as political rivals even though they appear to agree on the government's policy against peace negotiations...
...There are many difficulties," he said...
...Because the government feared Thanh would be a threat, it kept him out of the race on the grounds that he sympathized with the Communists and had too many Communist friends...
...I am confident that with the Communists participating in the government we can overcome them...
...Observers here are almost certain that Thieu and Ky will want to commit their forces to heavy battles before accepting a face-saving peace...
...I don't think about peace," said the merchant, leaning over a glass counter, streaked with cracks and filled with American cigarettes, toothpaste and candy bars...
...The seat of the new "Central Vietnam" would be Hue, the imperial capital of Vietnam before the era of French colonialism and still a symbol of national glory despite its devastation during the Tet offensive...
...Having lived with Dzu for six weeks, though, Thanh said he was convinced Dzu was "sincere" even if he did not agree with everything the lawyer said...
...Our leaders do not represent the people...
...In his living room, festooned with little Rotary Club banners from such cities as Sterling, Illinois, and East Los Angeles, Dzu predicted that negotiations would inevitably end with agreement for a coalition—just as he has advocated all along...
...Even the bars flourish during the daytime, thinly disguised as restaurants since President Nguyen Van Thieu ruled that nightclubs were out of place and illegal in the context of war...
...If Thieu wants to go on with war, he should call a referendum and see how many people agree with him...
...Politics in Saigon By Donald Kirk almost irrelevant...
...Tuyen's suggestion for recognizing the nlf is one of a number of ideas circulating in Saigon these days...
...After the election Thanh denied any connections with the Vietcong and also spoke contemptuously of Dzu, dismissing him as "just a clown...
...The politicians charge that Loc and his Cabinet have been largely ineffective and that the ministers do not have enough popularity and influence...
...A name often mentioned as Loc's successor is Tran Van Huong, the one-time high school professeur who ran third in the Presidential election and is widely respected for his integrity...
...After he got back he told me the Saigon government, as a first step toward peace, should recognize the National Liberation Front as a legitimate party in negotiations...
...We are convinced that our leaders and politicians should study carefully the idea of a buffer state as one way to end this civil war...
...I have two jobs and must work day and night...
...People have less money now for buying...
...Perhaps the most bizarre is the "buffer state" theory, which holds that South Vietnam should cede at least its northern two provinces, perhaps more, to a new country between North and South Vietnam...
...His main objection, reportedly, is that he does not wish to have to bow to the will of either Thieu or Ky in setting government policy...
...Minh, an advocate of this policy since 1960, arrived in February and was almost immediately arrested...
...moreover, Thanh, who served as finance minister while Ky was Premier, has a reputation for personal integrity and honesty...
...I fear a second attack by the vc," said a low-paid clerk in a government ministry, "but I am more fearful for the living conditions of my family...
...Vietnamese political gossips are convinced that one purpose of Minh's visit was to investigate the possibilities of the buffer state on behalf of Bao Dai, the last Vietnamese "puppet emperor," who ruled from Hue in the final period of French colonialism...
...Whatever the people might think, peace has been the favorite topic of conversation among political leaders and intellectuals since President Johnson's decision to seek negotiations...
...In its most extreme form, the theory calls for North Vietnam to contribute the provinces of its southern panhandle to the new state, and for South Vietnam to give up all its provinces from the central highlands to the Demilitarized Zone...
...Unlike Dzu...
...Amid such worries the great international debate on peace in Vietnam seemed Donald Kirk reports ]rom Southeast Asia for the Washington Star...
...Besides opposing all manner of peace plans, South Vietnam insists that it should have a voice in the final negotiations with North Vietnam...
...If Au Truong Thanh had been permitted to run in last September's election, it is possible that he would have received as many if not more votes than lawyer Dzu...
...Workers and peasants seemed unaware that peace was an immediate issue—or at least more so than it has been...
...Still we sometimes have hardly enough to eat...
...The Communists are defeated in France and Italy, and there the Communist parties are legal...
...Twice this year politicians have drawn up petitions asking the National Assembly to consider the question of Loc's removal...
...And until the decision is reached, analysts will not be able to judge the real strength of the Thieu-Ky regime or the government the United States has carefully tried to nurture...
...How far they yield will depend as much on the relative influence of their political opponents as on the United States, whose military strength in Vietnam still does not give it ultimate control over the government...
...He was freed six weeks later and put on the next plane for Paris with advice never to return...
...each time the petitions have failed for want of enough signatures...
...Indeed, the President and Vice President seem so united that the separate political fronts formed behind each of them following the Tet offensive have lost much of their meaning...
...The real reason for Thanh and Dzu's arrest, of course, was that they held "neutral" views, and the Communists' Tet offensive provided the perfect excuse for rounding up all serious government opponents...
...But Thieu, at least, seems to respect Huong's judgment and might be willing to grant more independence to him than to Loc in running the Cabinet...
...The main problem in Vietnam is how to get peace and still prevent a Communist takeover," he reasoned...
...The Labor Ministry rejected an attorney's plea that the money bargirls earned from Americans was needed for the wartime economy...
...No nation can go on fighting like that without the prospect of victory...
...Shells still explode outside Saigon, and police from time to time arrest peasants smuggling in arms, but merchants and businessmen seem too occupied with everyday affairs to fret over persistent rumors of a "second wave" Communist attack and more house-to-house fighting...
...I know little about it...
...Thanh's main difference with Dzu was that he advocated not the immediate formation of a coalition but a "free election" in which all parties, including the Communists, could put up candidates...
...What is more, North Vietnam appears equally willing to fight, at least according to editorials and other statements repeated almost daily over Radio Hanoi...
...The buffer state concept was first broached in print by Cong Chung, or People's Daily, a major Saigon newspaper controlled indirectly by Brigadier General Nguyen Ngoc Loan, the national police director and ally of Vice President Ky...
...Otherwise, they will just resort to weapons as before...
...They were still recovering from a 12-day hunger strike, but both said they had been treated well, had been able to receive guests, listen to the radio, read what they wished and talk freely with each other...
...Whether this commentary could be linked directly to Loan, much less Ky, was not clear, but rumors of a buffer state resulted in part from the mysterious visit here by Ho Thong Minh, who served as defense minister under the Diem regime and then fled to Paris...
...Analysts have generally assumed that Ky is more hawkish, less realistic, than Thieu and question whether he would yield to a peace solution that fell short of total victory over Communism in South Vietnam...
...Yet at present the soft-spoken and tactful Thieu is displaying a quiet determination in talks with American diplomats that easily rivals the Vice President's stubbornness...
...The talk of peace may actually have mitigated the celebrated Thieu-Ky rivalry, for both realize their whole policy—and government —could fall if they insist on fighting each other...
...We must compromise...
...I talked to these men after their release in mid-April...
...A corollary question, of course, is whether the compromise will be acceptable to Hanoi —and whether the battles ahead will also force the Communists to yield more than they had originally planned...
...You must grant the Communists some political status...
...Their only complaint, they said, was that they were never told why they had been arrested and never knew how long they would have to remain in custody...
...Tuyen returned in April from a six-week trip to the United States, sponsored by the U.S...
...They forever talk about peace...
...It means nothing...
...Huong, in fact, was offered the Premiership in the fall but refused it, and has since indicated he has not changed his mind...
...The government's flimsy excuse for holding them was that they needed "protection" from undesirable "elements" who wanted to kill them...
...The civil war in Vietnam has lasted for years," the newspaper commented...
...We must be prepared for political competition from the Vietcong...
...Dzu noted that for three years he has claimed the war was "impossible to win," and he charged that President Thieu was "very unrealistic" to refuse to talk with the Viet-cong...
...They only act as robots...
...The question is not whether a compromise will finally emerge, but whether that compromise will be enough to save some semblance of the present government as well as stop the fighting...
...The fact is, however, that beyond the official views of Thieu and Ky lies a surprising degree of sentiment in favor of compromise...
...The streets are crowded with cars and trucks and motorscooters, the shops are jammed with gleaming Western wares, some imported legally, others acquired through the black market...
...The fighters of the North are puppets of international Communism and the fighters of the South are puppets of the capitalists...
...Bao Dai now lives comfortably on the French Riviera but has nursed persistent, if farfetched, hopes of somehow returning to power...
...The irony of Dzu is that, despite his strong showing at the polls, most politicians still do not regard him as a serious contender for power...
...and Truong Dinh Dzu, who surprised all political analysts by running second to Thieu in last September's election...
...All Vietnamese must participate...
...Most of the government's critics —like Thanh, Dzu and Tuyen—are demanding a change in the Cabinet as the first step of a shift in policy toward negotiations...
...The official position, as enunciated by President Thieu and Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky, is that the Saigon government does not mind exploratory talks as long as the United States does not "sell out" its Vietnam ally...
...I must revive my business as it was before the attacks...
...The biggest problem is the place of the Liberation Front...
...That is a matter of political competition, and the problem is for the anti-Communist parties to organize in such a manner as to provide the maximum chance of winning...
...The reason is that Thanh, like Dzu, has won a reputation as an advocate of peace...
...But peace is a matter for governments to decide...
...These demands do not focus directly on Thieu or Ky, whose positions seem fairly secure, but on Premier Nguyen Van Loc, a lawyer who originally allied with Ky and then served as Thieu's campaign manager...
...You cannot deny the Vietcong this right just because they are Communists...
...Underlying this position is the government's basic opposition to any suggestion of compromise—in the form of coalition, recognition of the National Liberation Front (nlf) or partition of South Vietnam to create a new "buffer state" between the existing Viet-nams...
...His legal involvements might well have provided excuse enough to bar him from running for the Presidency, but government officials never imagined his platform of peace would prove so dangerously popular...
...One of the most respected voices for compromise is Tran Van Tuyen, a Saigon attorney who drew up a petition in January urging negotiations...
...Some believe a new premier, more independent of Thieu and Ky, would be strong enough to speak out in favor of a compromise peace...
...The merchant reflected the attitude of the people here as leaders in Washington, Peking, Moscow and Hanoi immersed themselves in the debate over developing "preliminary contacts" for negotiations...
...A wealthy lawyer who had acquired a reputation for corruption, Dzu offended the generals around Thieu and Ky by keeping up his demands for a coalition government long after the Presidential election, in which he ran on a "white dove" platform of peace...
Vol. 51 • May 1968 • No. 10