Revolution of Declining Expectations

...Actually, non-developed countries fall into two categories those which are in fact developing--for example Ghana, where apart from periodic vicissitudes a pattern of rising national income and of social progress can over the years be observed, and those which remain unquestionably underdeveloped--for example India, where food production is failing to keep pace with a population that has increased by 170 million in the last 20 years Today, far more people live in ' underdeveloped" countries than in 'developing" ones...

...The inherent tragedy in the world situation is most clearly revealed in the striking contrast between what one study calls "the rich 'North' and the poverty-stricken 'South' below the Tropic of Cancer " The split between North and South surfaced on the diplomatic level at the 1964 UN Conference on Trade and Development, when the developing countries for the first time succeeded in main-taming complete unity and formed the "Group of 77" (since enlarged to 86, but still bearing the same name) It was noted at the time that future historians might well consider this the juncture at which a new polarization of forces occurred, transforming the old East-West ideological struggle into a new economic struggle between the North and the tropical or quasi-tropical South--or again, as some would have it between the "developed" and the "developing" countries...

...The Conference on Trade and Development, which meets triennially, will hold its second session in New Delhi next February Planners from the advanced countries have been racking their brains for proposals that would to some degree meet the aspirations of the developing countries, and senior trade officials of the United States, Britain, France and Germany have agreed upon a plan that is now being considered by their governments This would grant tariff preferences for a 10-year period to encourage the developing countries to export industrial and semi-finished products to the advanced countries If the plan is accepted, it would represent a new departure in US trade policy The U S is further suggesting, however, that before a common Western position is established agreements might be reached to gradually phase out existing Commonwealth preferences and those granted by the Common Market countries...

...Yet, while the term "developed country' is clear enough, the term "developing" is open to question Initially, developing countries were called "backward" Lest this give offense the adjective "underdeveloped ' made its appearance Later, for the same reason, it was replaced by the presently accepted word "developing'--which implies that a country need only be called "developing" to find itself becoming, by natural processes and the simple passage of time, "developed" at last But word manipulation, unfortunately, cannot change hard realities...

...Under the charter the nations of the world, through the United Nations, would declare that it is then common interest to advance the income and welfare of the developing countries, and that at is their common ambition to combine to achieve targets--say, m agricultural production per capita output, population control, and health and education Attainable targets would then be set, and governments would commit themselves to take steps to insure their achievement The lack of any provision to insure implementation has been the main reason why the first Development Decade has not reached its goals...

...Still more evidence of the plight of the "developing" world has appeared in the latest annual report of the fao itself Whereas m 1965 world food production was at a standstill, in 1966 it increased by 4 per cent This gain, though, was more than negated by two other circumstances First the overall 4 per cent increase represented in effect a 6 per cent rise in the advanced countries, and only a 1 per cent rise m the rest of the world Second, the increase in world population for the same period averaged 2 5 per cent, mostly representing new mouths to teed in the developing world Small wonder, then, that U Thant warned at the start of the current General Assembly session "Unless all countries are prepared to do more, much more than they have been doing, the world will not solve the food problem The lives of hundreds of millions of young people in rural areas will be wasted The swelling migration to the cities will make living in urban centers in developing countries almost intolerable Violence will become the rule rather than the exception Assistance from the advanced nations to the developing nations should be increased without delay, doubled, then tripled in as few years as possible...

...Knowing this, veteran UN officials hesitate to raise false hopes by coming forward with bold new programs that stand little chance of acceptance "There is a dearth of imaginative thinking about development just now," one official commented privately the other day Nor is it any secret that many recommendations of the last Conference on Trade and Development, designed to improve matters, have not been implemented and are not likely to be...

...Clearly, deteriorating social conditions are undermining the stability of much of the world's political fabric It is also evident that so long as the underlying causes of the crises erupting on virtually every continent continue to exist, diverting more and more money to military and police measures, the situation will hardly improve Most decision-makers in advanced countries, moreover, seem inclined at the present tune to treat the symptoms rather than the causes...

...Other reports cite evidence of a shortage of doctors, a high incidence of child mortality, a lack of educational opportunity, and a soaring birth rate--as well as endemic poverty As if these conditions were not enough to contend with--indeed, perhaps because of them--wealthy nations are now investing less m the developing countries than they were in 1960 Terms of loans are tougher, too with the sums allowed for "soft loans" being cut down It is hardly surprising, therefore, that the rate of economic growth--the indicator used to measure the hoped for progress of the Development Decade--has also been dropping...

...Revolution of Declining Expectations By Keith Irvine United Nations The world-wide revolution of rising expectations has become, instead, a revolution of declining expectations As United Nations Secretary-General U Thant reported in September, "We are near the point of no return ". Back m the bold, bright New Frontier dawn, the General Assembly designated the 1960s the UN Development Decade While each country was to set its own target, it was expected that an average minimum growth rate of at least 5 per cent could be achieved by 1970 By the time the Decade had reached its half-way point, however, UN officials were voicing doubts that even this modest goal could be attained Today, as the Decade enters its final quarter, report after report not only spells out the extent to which all hopes have been dashed, but also hints at the incalculable consequences that may follow U Thant, in a survey prepared in cooperation with the Food and Agriculture Organization (fao), recently observed that serious food shortages were occurring in some of the largest developing countries Altogether, he estimated, more than one-fifth of the 2 2 million inhabitants of the developing world are hungry, and more than half suffer from a malnutrition that lowers productivity and increases susceptibility to disease, especially among children and expectant and nursing mothers...

...In the 1970s, if the charter is adopted, both rich and poor nations would have to agree to take certain actions Thus the rich countries might pledge themselves to make changes in their trade policies The poorer countries, for their part, might pledge themselves to institute effective programs for population control All would then be held accountable for the fulfillment of their commitments by the international community Through such an orderly and disciplined approach to the world's growing problems, the Second Development Decade could prove a critical turning point in the quest for economic stability and social progress...

...Meanwhile, a second ray of hope has been provided by the UN Committee on Development Planning, now working on guidelines for a Second Development Decade in the 1970s Viewing the progress of the first decade as "unsatisfactory," the Committee (which met in Latin America this year and will probably convene in Africa in 1968) has suggested that a charter be drawn up for the second decade In effect, this would constitute a "Ten-Year Plan" for the world...

...Keith Irvine, a free-lance writer, reports regularly on UN activities...