Showdown in Southern Africa

...The meetings will be in camera, to encourage frank speech, but a presumably tendentious "selection" of what is said will later be given to the press...

...The success of the sanctions against Rhodesia is now generally acknowledged...

...British parties will have only token representation...

...will not vote against...

...Though one school of thought at London's Defense Ministry does envisage white Rhodesians-working-class civilians, rather than soldiers-firing guns at the British Army, most observers believe that, as at Little Rock and Ole Miss (where whites were not in an uncomfortably tiny minority, as in Rhodesia), there would be more martial bluster than battle...

...And the 2nd battalion, Scots Guards, has been on alert ever since the political and economic siege of the Rhodesians began...

...But although Wilson seems within a few months of victory (or "weeks,' if one accepts his own official forecast), in retrospect it is clear that he underestimated the implications of his approach-often against advice from such people as his own High Commissioner and the former Rhodesian Army commander...

...For Wilson has, in large measure, disarmed the opponents of such action of their strongest argument: that sanctions are not feasible or efficacious...

...These estimates seem reasonable...

...And a former top New Frontiersman whose specialty is intelligence says categorically that the Azores base is not vital today anyway...

...and that Russia and Taiwan will support Africa...

...Abram Fischer, said by the South African government to be the SACP leader, was arrested in December...

...To set a balance of sorts, the Scandinavian governments will attend...

...in the position of having to support a blockade of the Portuguese African port of Beira, which could result in Lisbon's actually carrying out previous threats to withdraw U.S...

...Wilson also seems to have misconstrued the international consequences of sanctions...

...That is why the Africans feel fairly confident Britain and France will not oppose their move, even in the Security Council...

...Charter, it is contended, make them subject to penalties...

...He has said only that force would not be used "to impose a new constitution...

...Britain's position, given its investments in South Africa, is less predictable...

...The U.S...

...The deception in the agenda was admitted by a Communist organizer: After the Conference on South West Africa opens, he revealed, "certain delegations' will propose that the whole of southern Africa, in the light of Rhodesian developments, should be discussed...

...It is doubtful in any case that Portugal could actually expel the U.S...

...Even a pro-settler visitor, Conservative Shadow Minister for Commonwealth Relations Selwyn Lloyd, was not allowed by the Ian Smith regime to see the country's detained leaders, Joshua Nkomo and Ndabaninghi Sithole, perhaps because both remain mysteriously well informed...

...Though the South African and Portuguese governments, unlike the Ian Smith regime, are technically legitimate, their violations of the U.N...

...He has asserted that White Rhodesians comprise a majority of the local corps and (with a British brigadiergeneral in the background) would themselves carry out the small number of arrests needed to end the rebellion...

...When finally discovered, almost every feature of his face had been changed by plastic surgery and other methods, and the normally bushy-haired lawyer had been given a bald patch...

...that the United States and Britain will either vote for or abstain...

...Still the Azores base, even more than the U.S...

...The Prime Minister understood that Salisbury would have to dispense with dual wage scales for whites and blacks, job ceilings on black employment, and that it could no longer spend 20 times more on a white child's education than on an African's (unless African education was stopped altogether...

...Although there are few things the West would like less than to see Verwoerd succeeded by a Communist or pro-Communist government, even Westerners admit that, for at least 75 per cent of South Africans, any regime would be an improvement over the one they have...

...The sequel which South Africa's shrewd Premier, Hendryk Verwoerd, feared -and which the shrewdest Africans like President Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya saw as making sanctions preferable to "military intervention"will probably be played out sooner than most people thought...

...First, Wilson seems to have seriously misinterpreted the military situation...

...What the U.S...

...The very speed of southern African developments, catalyzed by the self-destructive folly of the Smithites in forcing the Rhodesian issue, prevents negotiation of the complex Western interests in the area and aids Moscow's drive to polarize the conflict and drive the West to antiAfrican positions...

...From France will come only Left-wing parties and emotional Americanophobes like Jean-Paul Sartre...

...Suspicious in its timing because the case of South West Africa is now before the World Court in The Hague, the conference appears to be part of a wider strategy intended to corner the U.S...

...If it has not received more than fleeting attention in the world press, that is because Pretoria has cried wolf too often about Communism, usually in relation to people not even remotely associated with the SACP...

...Washington's hand may soon be forced, however...

...initiative preempting the Communists in southern Africa...

...The reality, of course, is that in this instance Washington and Pretoria are likely to be proven right...

...The Pentagon, White House sources indicate, would also have preferred force to sanctions for a more specific reason: It felt that sanctions might ultimately put the U.S...

...Nor will Taiwan back South Africa and thus-by alienating the large African contingent-vote itself out of the United Nations...

...Though the publicity alleges that only the governments of "larger" African states were asked, Guinea somehow was included...

...Meanwhile, though, the South African Communist Partyhaving a monopoly on what little resistance activities the authorities have not crushed-will undoubtedly feel encouraged to step up its current program of selective sabotage...

...No doubt they were aware this would produce negative reactions at home, which they hoped would make still more unlikely a U.S...

...however, the British apparently have rejected the possibility that Rhodesian officers could be depended upon to exercise it, either out of loyalty to the crown or fear of court martial-despite assurances to the contrary from their retired commander...

...policy are being intensified by a South African lobby (the American African Affairs Association) with a 1966 budget of $160,000, including $40,000 from "foreign sources"-presumably the Afrikaner Broederbond...

...In other words, it has always been officially if reluctantly accepted that "force" might be required...

...Although the fact was not mentioned in invitations sent to the American Democratic and Republican parties, the Communist Chinese government has accepted a request to send a delegation, as have the Soviet Union, Poland and Czechoslovakia...

...South Africa has long been seen by the Kremlin as the soft underbelly of Africa...

...As the Smith fiasco becomes a cold war challenge, all possible Western policies-including preemption of African or Communist initiatives-demand consideration...

...The Azores threat is useful to Premier Salazar, this argument runs, but its implementation would be fatal to Portugal...

...Significantly, the rebel administration no longer publishes any statistics on foreign reserves, production, unemployment, imports or exports, leaving its inevitable claims that "sanctions are not working" unsupported...

...Party officials, recognizing the Communist motives, wisely declined their invitations...

...The Oxford meeting, "Bram" Fischer's phenomenal disguise, and the great recent growth of SACP activities all illustrate the resolution and resourcefulness with which the Soviets are pursuing their strategy...

...Wilson has, of course, been careful not to reject military action categorically...

...Actually, with a per capita income of barely $200 and merely a few minor industries, Rhodesia cannot possibly support a 150,000member Brahmin caste without invidious and provocative discrimination against blacks...

...In addition to the Pentagon and $1 billion in American investment, pressures against a bolder U.S...

...The exemplary effectiveness of his sanctions against Rhodesia is sure to stimulate pressures for a similar economic quarantine against South Africa...

...and South African official opinion, for once in accord on Rhodesia, felt that a "Little Rock" action would keep it an isolated case, he feared this would trigger conflict throughout the Continent...

...party officials -by a shock confrontation with Peking, Moscow, et al.-into accepting a harder line on Portuguese Africa and South Africa...

...SEQUEL TO RHODESIAN SANCTIONS Showdown in Southern Africa By Russell Warren Howe London Harold Wilson's management of the crisis in Rhodesia, assailed from many quarters as too cautious, may nonetheless bring the showdown this year so avidly sought by Africa's black leadership...

...According to informed sources, he expected the sanctions to drive only 30,000 whites across the Limpopo River border to South Africa, reducing the current white population to 150,000-the number he thought necessary (including dependents) to fill managerial and other essential posts...

...Not everyone in Washington shares the Pentagon's concerns...

...And since the UN is not the International Court, the countries will vote not on the legal merits but according to their political interests...

...Yet this, presumably, as with the Congo, would only throw the issue into the General Assembly where-with the U.S...

...Although there is no official sympathy for Verwoerd and little for Salazar in Washington, the U.S...

...Arguing from the Rhodesian experience, the African countries intend to seek a Security Council decision this summer imposing oil and other embargoes on Portuguese Africa and South Africa...

...Since only the most sanguinary drawing-room general could advocate invading the bristling fortress of South Africa, troops could have terminated the Salisbury rebellion without setting a precedent relevant for the whole of southern Africa...

...The conference was organized by Ronald Segal, a publishing executive and South African exile branded a Communist by Pretoria and apparently accepted as one by U.S...

...All the outward signs, therefore, confirm consular and bank reports that the sanctions are selectively disabling the economy as planned...

...on the southern Africa question and to keep the major-power initiatives on it as much as possible in Communist hands...

...Indonesia has been invited, but not Japan...

...Spearheaded by an experienced (European-led) party which belonged to the Comintern and Cominform in their day, and which supports Moscow against Peking, a revolution in South Africa would offer more opportunities to the Kremlin than one in the hands of African "bourgeois nationalists" with a smattering of Marx and Lenin...

...His reluctance to send in troops appears to have been based not only on apprehensions of inadequate Parliamentary and public support but also on a belief that 45,000 adult white Rhodesian males would rise and fight the British Army-while the four million Africans stood limply by...

...Communist sources claim that one purpose of this maneuver was to pressure the U.S...

...By that time, it is expected, Smith will find it impossible to cushion the white population from the astringent effects of Labor's policy...

...The Soviet Union has reportedly indicated that if the Africans are right and the measures are passed, it is prepared to put its navy at the service of the UN, along with other smaller navies, probably including Egypt's...

...The case will be put before the Security Council by an African member-Uganda, Mali or Nigeria...

...Rhodesia's Chief Justice, Sir Hugh Beadle, discussed the nature and composition of the next legal government when he was here in January...

...As for the primary target of the projected UN activity, South Africa, because of its great reserves, can be expected to withstand the discomfort of an oil embargo for more than a year...

...It will probably be appointed in the summer by the beleaguered Rhodesian Governor Sir Humphrey Gibbs...

...Air Force and Navy from Santa Maria against their will, any more than Castro has managed to force evacuation of Guantanamo...

...A fugitive who jumped bail, Fischer had apparently stayed in the country instead of going into exile...

...This will almost certainly lead to a sequel involving South Africa, Portugal, Britain, the Soviet Union and the United States in an unanticipated crisis...

...unprepared to fight South Africa's wars, Latin America having no reason to, and Asia supporting Africa-Britain and France would be undermining their positions in Africa for a lost cause without halting the Red Navy...

...A sediment of surplus whites-sales clerks, straw bosses, typists, car greasers-demanding superior pay and privileges, constitutes an unavoidable source of friction...

...Considering the strong Communist backing for this seemingly insignificant and mistimed academic debate, and considering the palpable deceit about the agenda itself and the parties invited, the Oxford meeting appears to be a tactical preamble for the big UN initiative scheduled to be launched a few weeks later...

...What can be easily avoided in Oxford cannot be so easily avoided in southern Africa, especially with a showdown not far off...

...Britain, whose $3 billion worth of private investments probably exceed those of all Afrikaansspeaking South Africans, has even less freedom than the U.S...

...The British aircraft carrier Eagle is already cruising outside that port...

...Some observers note that because the Azores base is the only Portuguese lever on American policy, it would be giving up all of its bargaining power by ousting the U.S...

...Some British observers feel both London and Paris would brave the African storm to veto a measure that would bring the Red Navy into Durban waters (or that Britain would abstain if it knew France was prepared to bear the odium alone...

...does not have the freedom of action of the Communist powers...

...must prevent is the loss of all control over what happens when the Verwoerd and Salazar regimes meet their hour of truth...

...But he seems to have believed that only a minority of the white population depended on these devices for tolerable survival...

...Commonwealth Relations Secretary Arthur Bottomley has asserted that British troops "ought not to be necessary because the Rhodesian forces have an oath of allegiance," but he too has certainly not excluded intervention in all circumstances...

...The spectacular disguise adds credibility to the South African government's claim that Fischer was heading a well-organized and determined, clandestine movement...

...The African assumption, based on soundings, is that France will merely abstain and not jeopardize its position in African states by using its veto...

...At least it is certain that the U.S...

...France, with its unique leadership and UN voting record, also is a question mark...

...A curious yet significant chapter in the present maneuvering is an ostensibly innocuous Conference on South West Africa, scheduled to take place at Oxford University March 23-27...

...base rights in the Azores...

...Russell Warren Howe, who travels widely in Africa, is currently on a Ford press fellowship...

...and British intelligence...

...Pulling out all the stops, the AAAA could make Michel Streulens' Katanga performance on behalf of Moise Tshombe look half-hearted in retrospect...

...Secondly, Wilson seems to have gravely misjudged the effects of the sanctions on the economics of nonAfrican employment...

...With 60 per cent of its population urbanized and detribalized, with the economy more industrial than anywhere else on the continent, and with a population under oppressive totalitarian control, it fits the theoretical pattern for a Communist revolution more adequately than other African states...

...tracking station near Johannesburg, is the determining factor in Pentagon policy about southern Africa and the strongest argument against positive American action in the area being presented to President Johnson...

...Though both U.S...

...Given its rich, self-supporting economy, thriving as the source of much of the free world's gold, a Communist or pro-Communist South Africa would be extremely powerful...

...Ironically, the action Africans demanded in the Rhodesia crisisthe dispatch of troops-would in all likelihood have prevented a wider crisis...

...Such a regime could expect to take over not only the equipment of what is by African standards a large army, air force and police, but also-and more important-the whole police-state apparatus which now serves the neoNazi regime of the Afrikaners...