Brazil's Foundering Democracy

...Three men, a retired Naval officer, a policeman and a journalist were killed, many others injured...

...And all candidates of both parties require the approval of special electoral boards set up by the government...

...As one of his close friends observes, "Costa e Silva strikes terror to the extent that his authority is challenged...

...Still, Costa e Silva was closely associated with the "hard-line" military faction in the early days of the revolution, and his candidacy was launched by a well organized military staff that included many of the "get-tough" wing of the Armed Forces...

...For the target of what was the first identifiable terrorist act to occur in Brazil since the military ouster of Leftist-President Jo??o Goulart in March 1964, was President-elect Artur da Costa e Silva, scheduled to take over from Marshal Humberto de Alencar Castelo Branco next March 15...

...President Castelo Branco has shown little hesitation to make use of these powers...

...There are those, though, who do not accept the official explanation...

...Castelo Branco declared that with most members of Congress away campaigning, the Chamber had been transformed into a "center of antirevolutionary agitation...

...Had the assassination succeeded it would have spawned a tidal wave, washing away for the foreseeable future at least all pretense that the country is not in the grips of a military dictatorship...

...A clean-sweep by ARENA candidates was assured by suspending the political rights of a sufficient number of MDB deputies...

...Given the opportunity, and considering both past history and the Brazilian nature, the military is just as likely to gradually loosen its hold, allowing Brazil to join the ranks of democratic nations again...

...MILITARY MANIPULATION Brazil's Foundering Democracy By Peter W Rodger Early this past August a timebomb exploded at the Guararapes airport in Recife, capital of the northern Brazilian state of Pernambuco...

...Doutel de Andrade, former president of the outlawed Brazilian Labor party, an opposition Federal deputy until mid-October when his political rights were suspended by the government, also argues that "there cannot be a half-democracy or a half-dictatorship: either there is democracy, or there is a dictatorship...

...None of them has been more vociferous than Carlos Lacerda, fiery former governor of the state of Guanabara, whom many credit with destroying President Getulio Vargas in August 1954 and forcing the abrupt departure of President J??nio Quadros in August 1961 after a brief seven months in office (which led to the 1964 military coup by elevating Vice President Jo??o Goulart...

...Party-switching by candidates has been prohibited, under penalty of political suspension...

...All 13 existing political parties were outlawed by decree in November 1965 and replaced by two broad political coalitions, the Administration's National Renovating Alliance (ARENA) and the "tolerated" opposition, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB...

...Given justification, the military is likely to tighten its grip on the country, at least in the immediate future...

...It should be noted, too, that on the whole Castelo Branco has not abused his powers...

...Much will depend on developments during the present "long wait...

...The leader of the ARENA party, Senator Filinto Muller, warned Congress before it was suspended that if it failed to approve the new Constitution by March 15, "a dictatorship will be an established fact...

...The fear now is that the new Constitution will be rammed down the throats of Brazilians even if this means keeping the doors of Congress closed for good...

...They now include the great majority of civilians, many of whom staunchly supported the military's bloodless revolution...

...Their disenchantment stems principally from the stiff, if necessary and generally effective, steps taken to halt the country's inflation and plummeting economy...

...Members of the latter are allowed to grumble but have little say in most matters of any consequence, since they live under the constant shadow of political suspension...

...In fact, the "hard-line" faction of the military has frequently charged him with being too lenient, particularly in the case of pre-revolutionary political figures, many of whom are still in public office and openly critical of the revolutionary movement...

...Others include former Presidents Jo??o Goulart, Juscelino Kubitschek and J??nio Quadros, and perennial Presidential candidate Adhemar de Barros, ousted from the governorship of the state of S??o Paulo last June...

...More awesome is the power given the President to suspend anyone's political rights for 10 years, ostensibly to free the country from Communism and corruption...

...Brazil's history records only one outright attempt by a member of the military to take over absolute control...

...On October 20, in fact, the President did dismiss Congress until November 22, a week after the upcoming Congressional elections...

...should Congress when it reconvenes continue to resist Presidential pressure for the new Constitution, then it is quite possible that the military will scrap even the pretense of democracy for a while...

...And he believes democracy is dead in today's Brazil, a "country where legitimate public officials have been suspended, where judges do not have the freedom to judge, where imprisonments take place without prior proof of guilt, where condemnations are made without the right to defense, where the President legislates according to the best interests of the political faction to which he belongs, where, in short, justice has been substituted by force...

...Elections for the entire state and Federal Chambers of Deputies and for one-third of the Senate, set for November 15, have been allowed to remain by direct vote...

...It is apparently fearful that political and social agitation during what Brazilians have termed "the long wait" (the five-and-a-half months from the October 3 election to March 15) may give Castelo Branco an excuse for throwing out "guided democracy" and taking over complete dictatorial powers...

...force Congress to vote within 30 days on any constitutional amendment submitted by the President, while reducing the margin for congressional approval from twothirds to an absolute majority...

...Should the "Extensive Front" (which the Castelo Branco government has described as "clearly subversive") snowball into a spirited anti-government campaign...

...In theory at least, the new Constitution must be approved by Congress, which in a first and surprising show of resistance, proved extremely reluctant to swallow the draft submitted by the President...

...In the economic sector, if nowhere else, this action has produced often quite remarkable results...

...If, on the other hand, the present government is satisfied by March 15 that the problems assailing the country under Goulart have been successfully erased, and that there is no further need for exceptional powers to enforce often highly unpopular measures, then Costa e Silva may be able to put into practice what he has recently preached: the return of the country to full democracy, including direct elections at all levels...

...But the opposition obviously distrusts the President, described by one observer in Brazil as "the greatest political chess player in the world...

...While now an almost forgotten incident, the Recife explosion could have significantly changed the course of Brazilian history, with democracy itself its worst victim...

...After successfully leading the Army revolt that won independence from Portugal in 1889, and becoming the country's first President, General Manuel Deodoro da Fonseca dissolved Congress in 1891 and declared himself dictator...

...Brazilians like to stress that, although it has always wielded considerable power, the military has generally been content to step in only at moments of crisis, bowing out gracefully as soon as normal conditions have been restored...

...The inflation rate, expected to top the 140 per cent mark in 1964, was held to little more than 80 per cent that year, lowered to 45 per cent in 1965 and is now running at some 3 per cent per month...

...Laeerda has since penned a "manifesto," which he has submitted for approval to Kubitschek, Goulart and Quadros, calling for a unified Opposition to the Castelo Branco regime...

...In fairness to Castelo Branco, it should be stressed that during the early days of his "revolutionary government" few questioned the need for strong, even ruthless, action to repair the damage inflicted on the country during the Goulart era...

...With either Castelo Branco or Costa e Silva, lifetime friends and Army colleagues, the military will be at the helm...

...He was forced to resign three weeks later in favor of the Vice President, General Floriano Peixoto...

...It should be remembered, though, that while Castelo Branco has stressed the imperative need to insure the "continuity of the revolutionary movement" at any cost, Costa e Silva has commented that "the revolution will continue until the most legitimate democratic and republican aspirations of the nation are fully attained...

...But the government has taken the necessary precautions to prevent a heavy upset at the polls in the first nationwide opportunity for Brazilians to express their displeasure with the present regime...

...Nothing is impossible in Brazilian politics, yet it is doubtful that Castelo Branco could stay in office even if he wished to do so...

...They attributed the defeats to lack of support from the government...

...At the time of the explosion, Marshal Costa e Silva's plane was grounded with engine trouble in Fortaleza...

...Doutel de Andrade is but one of 625 (up to mid-October) who have felt the ax of political suspension...

...He may be friendlier than Castelo Branco, but it is open to question whether he is more lenient...

...The first two Institutional Acts, decreed in mid-April 1964 and October 1965 respectively, enable the President to declare a state of siege without consulting Congress...

...The big question is whether the present "guided democracy" will give way to a military dictatorship or to full democracy in the next few years...

...Looking very much the prototype of a Latin American dictator, complete with large green-tinted glasses (he is susceptible to eye irritation), 64-year-old Costa e Silva is actually more "human...

...He would govern under his decree powers, he said, thus ending what he termed Congressional "defiance" resulting from his suspension of the political rights of six opposition deputies...

...Peter W. Rodger, an editor at Vision, has reported from Brazil for both Reuters and Time-Life...

...The Presidential election of October 3 was similarly made "indirect," the successor to Castelo Branco being chosen by an intimidated Congress which could be put on ice at any time...

...and stipulate that if no action is taken by Congress on other Presidential bills within 30 days, they will be considered approved...

...Five of the ousted deputies, including Doutel de Andrade, had openly defied the purge by attending sessions and denouncing the "dictatorship" from the floor...

...That the military fully intends to rule the country for at least another four years, however, is beyond dispute...

...Congressmen understandably claimed that they were in no position to debate a new Constitution while Castelo Branco had the power to cancel their political rights...

...Following several sharp reversals in free gubernatorial elections in 11 states in late 1965, the government decreed that September 1966 elections in the remaining 11 states would be made "indirect," with state Chambers of Deputies picking the governors...

...should unrest, as exemplified by recent student riots that reached their climaxes in a bloody "National Day of Protest Against the Dictatorship," get out of hand...

...While timid and at present "resting," Congress still functions, the press has not been muzzled, freedom of speech has been upheld, and critics have been having a field day...

...Castelo Branco and his associates contend that "guided democracy" best describes the present government, and that the harsh and often arbitrary measures imposed in all sectors of activity are merely temporary necessities to cope with the economic, social and political chaos caused by the Goulart regime...

...This "Extensive Front," as it is now known in Brazil, did not object to the election of Costa e Silva but demanded his immediate instatement...

...Castelo Branco has made it abundantly clear that he does not wish to extend his stay in office, insisting that the text of the second Institutional Act include the statement that "the actual President of the Republic is ineligible for this [October 3] election...

...When that might be he has not said...

...Doutel de Andrade views, of course, are extremely biased, but they are not altogether lacking in foundation...

...Those planning to emerge from their hiding places as soon as he is installed as President are warned to watch for their necks: Costa e Silva is also pretty handy with an ax...

...The issue of dictatorship or democracy is clouded by too many "ifs" at present to make a safe prediction possible...

...Voters wishing to back the ARENA locally must also do so nationally...

...Three "Institutional Acts" and a score of "Supplementary Acts," enforced in the past two-and-a-half years, have given the government practically unlimited powers...

...In fact, the President-elect is more "Brazilian," with the Brazilians considering him simpatico...

...Marshal Amaury Kruel, until recently the Commander of the Second Army stationed in S??o Paulo, whose support of the revolutionary forces swung the balance in their favor in 1964, has estimated that Costa e Silva now has the backing of 60 per cent of the military, that Castelo Branco can count on the support of a mere 5 per cent, and 35 per cent are uncommitted...

...He enjoys an occasional drink, is not beyond betting a nominal sum on the horses, readily laughs at a good joke, will look twice at a pretty girl, loves talking, enjoys the company of friends and his family (his only son, Alcio, is a retired Army colonel...

...Interviewed by the widely-read Vis??o weekly magazine in early September, Lacerda went so far as to suggest that a united opposition should take to weapons if necessary to "democratize" the country again...

...Along with Adhemar de Barros and Magalh??es Pinto, former governor of the state of Minas G?©rais, Lacerda was one of the moving civilian forces behind the 1964 revolution...

...The exceptional powers granted the Executive branch by the Acts are due to expire next March, although a new Constitution being drawn up by a team of legal experts is expected to incorporate many of their provisions...

...Brazil has enjoyed a balanced budget for the first time in recent history, the country's foreign reserves have been boosted from some $112 million to around $600 million, and government revenue has risen considerably as a result of banking and taxation reforms...

...Both Lacerda and Magalhaes Pinto turned sour on the revolutionary government in late 1965 when their gubernatorial candidates in their home states were soundly defeated...