Taiwan Looks Ahead

...14 recognize the Communists, and two, Nigeria and Ethiopia, are neutral...

...Existing programs of technical aid and exchange visits are being stepped up, and a search is on for the single imaginative stroke that might curb the urge to follow France...

...For several years now, with the near doubling of United Nations membership and the narrowing of the Nationalists' margin in the vote on China's seat, Taiwan has been setting up extensive projects to win friends and votes on every continent...

...and because of its interests in Macao, it is now considered a likely prospect for a switch to Communist China...

...It is presently seeking heavy machinery on long-term credits in return for processed agricultural goods and textiles...

...Against such inroads, the potentialities of trade between Taiwan and Latin America is not expected to be very great, but Taiwan is nonetheless making a serious effort to expand the present small volume...

...In the face of this shifting balance, Taiwan has been actively wooing the new African states by means of agricultural aid and political visits...

...Some quarters in Taipei have not resisted the tendency to abdicate responsibility for the recognition problem to the United States...

...Communist China can be expected to gain at least two votes in 1964 from Brazzaville and the newly independent Zanzibar...

...The first major by-product of this changed diplomatic atmosphere has been a detente in Taiwan's relations with Japan...

...Certainly no new plan of action emerged from the 1964 administrative program he has presented...

...In past years, the Nationalists have felt their Latin American ties were secure under U.S...

...Taiwan maintains an embassy or legation in all 60 countries with which it has diplomatic relations, though only 13 countries have diplomats in Taipei...

...Six of these teams are already working in Liberia, Libya, Dahomey, Ivory Coast, Gabon and Rwanda (and Liberia and Libya have asked for an expansion of their projects...

...Each group consists of 12 to 16 young farm boys led by an agricultural expert, and all are trained in the local languages before departure...

...Last month Brazil and Taiwan ratified a year-old agreement to exchange Brazilian soybeans for Taiwan manufactures...

...Chief among them is Japanese trade with the mainland...

...Fourteen of the 20 have diplomats accredited to Taiwan, five in Taipei, eight resident in Tokyo and one in Hong Kong...

...At this time they concentrated on Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Brazil, but for years, their sub rosa activities among trade unions, peasant organizations and student groups have made headway throughout the continent...

...Chou En-lai is said to have traveled through Africa with an open purse...

...Supplementing the trade program, a technical assistance delegation has recently been sent to the Dominican Republic, another will leave shortly for Brazil and others are under consideration...

...What happens after that remains to be seen...

...In terms of future prospects, however, the fact that there has not yet been a wholesale move to join the French bandwagon can lend Taipei small comfort at best...

...Africa is now the area that confronts Taiwan with its greatest policy problem...

...But whatever the cause, Taiwan did refrain from an outright break with France until the French chargé in Taipei indicated that the Nationalist ambassador would no longer be welcome in Paris...

...But in Foreign Ministry councils a new sense of urgency is apparent...

...Included in Taiwan's agricultural program, moreover, is its own version of the Peace Corps, which will soon dispatch five farm-demonstration teams for service in the Cameroons, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Upper Volta and Niger...

...Largescale trade, favorable to Taiwan ten times over, and large-scale technical assistance continue...

...The policy remains the recovery of the China mainland, and its fixed corollaries: opposition to the recognition of two-Chinas, plus increased defense spending...

...De Gaulle's recognition has so far prompted only one state, the Congo (Brazzaville), to follow suit...

...Taiwan's relations with Latin America present a somewhat brighter picture...

...The 1963 UN vote on the Albanian motion to seat Communist China (57 against, 41 for, 12 abstentions) gave Taiwan the biggest margin of victory it has enjoyed since 1958, before most African states gained independence...

...The last months have brought no comparable change in Taiwan's relations with the Asian neighbors it considers as its closest allies besides the United StatesSouth Korea, South Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand...

...The Japanese attitude could also be a decisive factor...

...The handling of the French affair, characterized throughout by caution and calm, was in striking contrast to the explosiveness of Taiwan's six-month-old conflict with Japan...

...The political visits, of which Minister of Economic Affairs C. T. Yang's spring tour is the latest, are part of a Taiwan-sponsored program which has brought together some 300 Chinese and African leaders in the last three years...

...Its greatest bloc of support has come from this area where all 21 countries, except Cuba, maintain relations with Taiwan, and all have voted with Taiwan in the United Nations...

...The French move does, of course, intensify Taiwan's diplomatic struggle by threatening to set off chain reactions not only in French Africa but also in Latin America, Europe and Asia...

...The problems at issue between the two countries remain the same as those discussed by Bambuko Ono on a similar peace-making mission last fall...

...Portugal recognizes Taiwan but abstained from the UN vote on China...

...Yoshida was said to have supported the principle of separation of economics and politics, and to have assured Chiang that a limit on long-term credit had now been reached...

...After five meetings with President Chiang Kai-shek, the two statesmen announced a common anti-Communist stand and a new atmosphere in Sino-Japanese relations...

...On March 11, 40 farmers from 20 African countries, including soon-to-be-independent Nyasaland and Northern Rhodesia, began the fourth of Taiwan's six-month seminars in agricultural techniques...

...Senegal is in the unique position of officially recognizing both Taiwan and Communist China, but since it exchanges envoys only with the Nationalists and supports them in the UN, it is counted here on the Nationalists' roster...

...Taiwan's strongest European trade link has been, and remains, West Germany, which is neutral on the recognition issue...

...Two German engineers are expected soon to investigate the feasibility of building an integrated steel mill, and Economic Minister Yang is visiting Germany prior to his African trip to explore opportunities for German technical assistance to Taiwan...

...Europe remains Taiwan's weakest diplomatic link...

...But Taiwan plans to continue and increase the exchange...

...Observers in Taipei are predicting that though the margin will be reduced in 1964, Taiwan will continue to hold its place in the UN...

...But the relative insignificance of Taiwan's efforts to preserve her legitimacy as the government of China should not be allowed to obscure their other, more important meaning...

...The Chinese Communists launched a major trade offensive in November to coincide with the anticipated link with France...

...German trade was suddenly increased last year while Taiwan was looking for an alternative trading partner to Japan...

...influence rather than Taiwan's diplomatic activity that will determine Taiwan's future position...

...Official relations are in effect with only six countries plus the Vatican...

...Cultural exchange will also be increased in 1964...

...Strong United States pressure was undoubtedly behind the strategy of maneuvering for the last possible profit margin...

...The Premier has acknowledged, however, that this year Taiwan faces a more difficult international situation than formerly, and one that requires, if not a new national policy, at least some improvement in implementing that policy...

...But a heightened diplomatic effort is being directed toward Malaysia, which recognizes neither the Communists nor the Nationalists although Malaya voted with Taiwan in the UN last year...

...Its representative attended the recent Organization of African States conference in Lagos, and observers will be sent to all major African conclaves in the future...

...If one assumes that within a few years the Communist regime on the mainland will be internationally accepted as a legal government, there remains the probability that an entity called Taiwan will also be awarded international status...

...Despite the successes of these Africa projects, officials in Taipei realize that the odds are against them because of Communist China's lavish spending in gifts and interestfree loans...

...The Japanese delegation of industrialists and financiers is being led by former premier Nobusuke Kishi and former Deputy Premier Mitsujiro Ishii...

...As a consequence of the Yoshida mission, plans have been announced for a meeting of the Committee for Promotion of Sino-Japanese Cooperation in Taipei...

...Brazzaville's President of the Legislative Assembly, who visited Taiwan, was put out of office when his country decided to recognize the Communists...

...The immediate effect, then, of French recognition of Communist China has proved less destructive to Taiwan's international status than many here feared...

...Japanese Foreign Minister Masayoshi Ohira is expected to visit Taiwan to prepare this meeting, and it is also expected that Chiang will now send a higher-ranking Chinese official to the Tokyo embassy, which has been without an ambassador since December...

...Some 100 Africans from 22 countries, among them 18 from Kenya, which now recognizes the Communists, together with representatives from Zanzibar and neutral Ethiopia, have attended previous seminars consisting of both classroom instruction and field demonstrations through the course of a crop season...

...The former Japanese Premier, Shigeru Yoshida, visited Taiwan at the end of February bringing a letter from Premier Ikeda...

...The project has been hampered, however, by the instability of African governments...

...Last year 50 farmers came to agricultural seminars in Taiwan, and 200 have been invited in 1964...

...This year the Nationalist government will subsidize a steamship run to Latin America to facilitate future trading, and a bonded warehouse and display center are slated to be set up in Panama as part of this new trade effort...

...Five others, Malagasy, Chad, Cameroons, Gabon and Upper Volta, have indicated that they will continue relations with Taiwan...

...The Nationalists naturally view such trade as both a form of aid and a prelude to political relations, and the issue has grown more acute with the continuous increase in the scale of trade (now projected to reach $190 million in 1964...

...influence, but a new initiative in this area is indicated by the recent recall of a diplomat from Chile for the specific purpose of setting up a new department of South and Central American Affairs in the Foreign Ministry Taiwan faces strong competition in Latin America...

...Even before the final severance with France on February 11, President de Gaulle's action had signaled a change in Taiwan's diplomatic style...

...The Nationalists estimate that the Chinese Communists have some 2,000 representatives in Africa compared with Taiwan's 30 diplomats and less than 100 farmers...

...At present 18 countries recognize Taiwan, 12 of them former French colonies...

...Ireland, which is neutral, voted with Taiwan in the UN...

...Ultimately it is U.S...

...The agricultural program is of an eminently practical sort...

...Now Germany may gain similar benefits from a redirection of trade with France...

...As Malaysia and Taiwan are not natural trading partners, Taiwan has approached Malaysia primarily through technical cooperation...

...Emily Cohen, a new contributor to these pages, is a Stanford University fellow studying in Taipei...

...Taiwan's approach to Europe is through trade...

...Spokesmen for Chiang and Yoshida agreed that the Generalissimo clearly understood the necessity for Japanese trade with Communist China, but opposed outright political endorsement of private trade, deferred payment terms, sale of strategic materials and other largescale trade that would be tantamount to aid...

...French recognition of Communist China does not pose a new kind of problem to the Nationalists, who have been involved in a struggle for their diplomatic life since their retreat to Taiwan in 1949...

...If so, Taiwan's current economic and political overtures will have paved the way...

...President Hubert Maga of Dahomey was feted in Taiwan only to be overthrown before his return home...

...Negotiations with Japanese firms, suspended three months ago by official order, will now be resumed as Taiwan moves to strengthen its bargaining power as a good customer...

...Taiwan's application for accreditation to the Common Market, approved by five members, was vetoed by France, but the Chinese still hope to increase trade with individual Common Market members...

...In return for such benefits, the Nationalists hope to attract large-scale German investment to Taiwan for the development of heavy industry...

...Taiwan therefore pins some hope on African fears of Communist subversion, fears that have now been revived by the revolts following in the wake of Chou's journey...

...There is talk of opening a shipping route to Europe and of a floating trade fair...

...Two African states which recognize Taiwan, Mauritania and Sierra Leone, abstained from the China vote in 1963...

...Yoshida's visit carried greater authority and prestige than Ono's, however, and the Nationalists, in turn, gratified by Ikeda's firm rejection of pressures to follow the French example, approached the meeting from a new perspective...

...In the 1963 UN vote, 17 African countries, including Brazzaville, supported Taiwan while 13 supported the Communists...