After Containment
HUMPHREY, HUBERT H.
After Containment WINNING WITHOUT WAR By Amitai Etzioni Doubleday 271 pp. $4.95. Reviewed by HUBERT H. HUMPHREY U.S. Senator, Minnesota Professor Amitai Etzioni of Columbia University has...
...I do not even understand him to be counselling that we really eliminate it...
...Should such a conflict arise, a UN "flashlight" team would inspect the situation...
...They are also exercising independence in other areas...
...Still, argues Etzioni, the West has unities which are deeper than its divisions...
...Our allies see no advantag...
...The Kennedy Administration continued the policy of "containment...
...Etzioni reminds us that the French desire for independence in military power antedates de Gaulle...
...Certainly there are problems with a Multi-National Force idea, but they are of a different sort, and our allies understand these problems...
...or suggesting that we have always done everything right, it is the Communists who must give up the idea of supporting "wars of national liberation," not us...
...When one adds the technical difficulties of administering a multilingual naval command, and various other problems, we may turn out to have a Rube Goldberg invention on our hands...
...The European nations are seeking a greater share in political decisions affecting the operation of U.S...
...Etzioni is also good on the political background of the breakup of the bi-polar world...
...It wants a voice in how, when and where that power is to be used...
...it is inadequate...
...Yet we, on the other hand, do not want to increase the number of fingers on the atomic trigger...
...The central theme of this volume is that the time has come for new strategies by the United States in conducting the cold war...
...vs USSR...
...Whatever one thinks of the way in which de Gaulle is responding to historical forces, he is certainly not blind to them, nor did he originate them...
...Perhaps some of this has become clearer since this book was written...
...He wants foreign aid to build free and democratic societies...
...He expects, however, that Russia will continue to check China in other respects, as indeed it has been doing since 1959...
...In this containment strategy, our power has been met by some Soviet restraint...
...One of these is C. P. Snow's, with its warning that if there is any possibility of thermonuclear war, there is then a statistical certainty of it...
...It is also, I believe, a poor psychology with which to motivate policy...
...Further, it has appeared to offer the Communists a deal—stay on your side of the fence and out of third countries, and we will be satisfied...
...strategy in military terms is in fact our policy: acceptance of a secondstrike deterrence, declining to build a thermonuclear capacity beyond the point of diminishing returns, unilateral cut-back of unnecessary capability, seeking meanwhile to find agreement on concrete, negotiable steps in disarmament...
...At least he does not suggest that we sacrifice any of our military power to implement it as a tactic, if Communist threat requires it...
...It is indeed a minimum regret policy, and I believe we have been trying to initiate something like it...
...We will not give our allies a finger on our atomic trigger in NATO...
...The general confrontation has been labelled "Free World vs...
...It has in fact "contained...
...In short, Etzioni asks for "neutralization" on a grand scale throughout the whole uncommitted world...
...peaceful coexistence will not eliminate that...
...That is, we may have an unnecessary contraption to achieve a point we are already making in asking our allies to trust us and our use of thermonuclear power...
...In a MNF, we seek to provide an illusion of participation while still keeping a final veto on control of use...
...There are others, of course, who are breathing too easily about the stability of deterrence since the Cuban confrontation...
...In short, he is "reasonable...
...Unless one is clear about what one is buying time for...
...and Russia agree to stay out of these countries, and not ship in arms or military force to any side of a conflict within them...
...Biddle, a missile-destroyer, to see what problems may be involved...
...I believe that the so-called disarray in NATO is oftentimes blown up out of proportion...
...Where we are compromised in involvements with other nations, Etzioni does not give us a clear idea of how we may extricate ourselves...
...This is realistic...
...The standard answers have suggested that we must hold fast until the Soviets either grow weaker or more mellow...
...This is apparent in his discussion of foreign aid...
...Arms-control must proceed to some substantial arms-reduction if it is to be hopeful...
...Some new crisis of a similar type might end in disaster...
...The development of the role of the United Nations also might have been further amplified...
...Such tendencies do not make these countries Communist or instil in them any desire to be controlled from either Moscow or Peking...
...the world is still a bi-polar power world...
...For either Russia or the U.S...
...military strategy...
...He is likewise skeptical about armscontrol when it is conceived only as arms-balancing...
...He is cautious but not conservative...
...But he really advocates more—not less—interference by the U.S...
...Unfortunately, American opponents echo this Soviet charge...
...He is good on the difficulties in foreign aid...
...Etzioni discards "disarmament," in any general and complete sense, as a remote goal...
...That cliffhanger could have gone the other way...
...Etzioni clarifies both the Sino-Soviet split and the developing disarray among the Western allies...
...Meanwhile, measures toward arms reduction could be pursued by the major powers...
...Etzioni is idealistic but not visionary...
...Etzioni urges us to go further in this direction...
...Etzioni is intriguing and worth listening to on his expectation that in the next 10 years, Germany is likely to present more problems to the NATO alliance than France...
...has attempted to confront and give credible deterrence to the threat of Soviet aggression...
...For practical purposes, it has been the U.S...
...But neither side, according to Etzioni, has recognized a goal of freeing the world to develop the competition of many power centers...
...The essence of this policy is that the U.S...
...It makes too sharp a distinction between verification and inspection on arms reduction...
...And if they are to mellow, some new strategy must be developed...
...should not be concerned about some of the Socialist schemes and Leftward tendencies in some of these countries...
...to share power with its allies would threaten the capacity of each to deal with the other...
...Indeed, it broadened the range of forces with which to accomplish this policy...
...This is bad statistics—there is no possibility of predicting, one way or another, the "unique" event...
...But Communist policy has a lot to do with keeping us focused on "containment...
...We have not, in any case, been devious on the point, as the Russians charge...
...It has seemed to be both too defensive and too static...
...Germany has enormous built-in pressure for reunification and may for that reason be tempted to deal independently with Russia...
...This latter issue constitutes the main weakness in an otherwise useful book...
...He is not as unique in this respect as he is in his understanding of the complexities of world power relationships and the tangled web of history in which they have developed...
...I agree with the tone of this...
...policy has been one of "containment...
...Americans have always been restive about the policy of containment...
...Since 1947, U.S...
...Outside powers could thus compete in the Third World on matters of foreign aid, technical assistance, contracts for airlines, etc...
...In terms of actual power relationships, polycentrism is more of an ideal than a fact...
...The long-run aim of this policy of containment has been "to promote tendencies which must eventually find their outlet in either the break-up or the gradual mellowing of Soviet power...
...The Sino-Soviet split is deep and sharp...
...But then he admits candidly that not much can be done this way...
...Senator, Minnesota Professor Amitai Etzioni of Columbia University has long been dedicated to the cause of peace...
...He welcomes agreements here as first steps, but he counsels against stopping with that...
...Etzioni doubts that this split has gone so far that Russia would not extend its atomic umbrella in the event of some vital threat to China...
...Three main factors dictate a new approach: 1) the dangers in the thermonuclear arms race...
...None of our allies, except West Germany, has much enthusiasm for this force, although some of them are participating in discussion and in the manning of the U.S.S...
...Without claiming perfection for the U.S...
...There will continue to be a power conflict...
...I have hope for growing Western maturity on the nature of the dilemma here...
...Containment as a policy recognizes only two powers in the world...
...In that sense the book is a solid support for the policies of the Johnson administration...
...In these matters, Etzioni essays the difficult but necessary task of striking a balance between complacency and fear...
...At first Etzioni seems to think much can be gained by a verification process using open sources that do not require inspection...
...Winning Without War, and amplifies his theme of a "gradualist approach to peace...
...That is...
...Etzioni does not approve our supporting any Right-wing governments, and he wants us to bring pressure on them...
...policy is concerned, it is not new...
...and 3) the evolution of neutralism in new nations toward a non-alignment that wants to be independent of both the Western and the Communist blocs...
...He is, rather, advocating a supplement to containment...
...Communist Bloc...
...I agree...
...He reasons with us again in his latest book...
...in the internal affairs of other nations...
...John Foster Dulles proclaimed the idea of a new policy, but the Eisenhower Administration continued the old one...
...The Russians charge that the whole idea is simply a way to proliferate the control of nuclear weapons...
...There would be a truly peaceful competition to show the better political and economic way, and the new nations would be able to judge for themselves...
...These are the words of George Kennan, who has provided the most succinct definition of "containment" that we have...
...thermonuclear power...
...Yet if containment has been lacking as a strategy, it has been brilliant tactically...
...He recognizes that the policy of containment was necessary, and that it has worked...
...The policy which Etzioni advocates for U.S...
...it merely practiced it with a more threatening rhetoric...
...I am not clear on how this will square with "remote deterrence," and why the Communist bloc will agree to stay out of it...
...He properly rejects apocalyptic theses which assert that we have a very short time in which to make the world completely safe, or have it completely destroyed...
...This preoccupation of the two major powers only with each other in matters of strategy and political concern Etzioni calls a state of "duopoly...
...Some other minor questions might be raised about the book...
...We are on this threshold at the present time...
...our policy has aimed "to confront the Russians with unalterable counter-force at every point where they show signs of encroaching upon a peaceful and stable world...
...Etzioni presents a clear picture of the problems involved in the MultiNational Force—the fleet of surface ships, armed with Polaris missiles and manned by crews representing the NATO powers...
...His focus here is upon the "Third World" of the developing nations...
...To be sure, this cautiously optimistic view admits that there is much that remains inscrutable to us in the Communist riddles...
...They see that our motives are psychological and political...
...The U.S...
...They would not interfere militarily...
...Western power (U.S...
...Any violation by either side would call off the agreement and put us back where we started...
...In those years the Administration expected the Communists to weaken...
...The ideal of having other nations develop in freedom and independence, in a manner and idiom of their own choosing, and toward democratic institutions is sound...
...The evidence is that most of them desire to develop in their own way and be fiefs of nobody...
...The problem is that Europe does not want to be hostage to the use of U.S...
...We must accept the fact that in our time we will have to live dangerously, with an urgent concern to try to lessen the danger, but also to make plans without panic...
...What we must achieve, ideally, is a way to conduct this conflict under rules which do not contemplate burying anybody...
...Inspection, which the Soviets are only slowly admitting "in principle" but not yet much in practice, is still the key to progress...
...2) the break-up of the bi-po!ar power world...
...But the Soviets have not become weaker...
...and as far as U.S...
...Neither great power can share its thermonuclear power with its respective allies, nor negotiate its reduction over the heads of its allies...
...But it also began to look for initiatives that would induce a mellowing...
...This pressure should go all the way to engineering their "toppling," and in the event that we do not get a good succession, to "multi-toppling...
...The Force has little, if any, military meaning...
...In the quasi-religion of Communism, this has taken on the proportions of a heterodox-orthodox split, than which none can be more bitter...
...Etzioni believes that the rules should permit the free play and development of other powers in the world...
...As a strategy, containment is limited to buying time...
...To accomplish this, Etzioni calls for a policy of "remote deterrence...
...We have nothing to lose and everything to gain by it...
...All of these factors add up to a fluid situation which makes it desirable for the major powers to channel their conflict into constructive measures for peace...
...Etzioni doubts that the developing independence among members of the Western Alliance will ever breach the unities these nations have as members of a common culture...
...This thought has been suggested elsewhere, in the writings of realists like Hans Morgenthau...
...That the Soviets would mellow, or could be induced to, lay outside the options...
...in this...
...I agree with this too...
...Etzioni calls this a "minimum regret" policy...
...There is much current literature on this development, but little of it gives the necessary perspective...
...it has not attempted to challenge the East in its own sphere...
Vol. 47 • July 1964 • No. 14
