Russia's Continuing Crisis

...Higher priorities for agriculture combined with excellent weather to produce a bumper crop in 1958...

...Consumer goods were made available in village stores...

...But in his closing speech to the same plenum, Khrushchev retreated from his demands for dramatically increased allocations to agriculture...

...Cafeterias ceased to serve free bread with their meals, and severe penalties were dealt out to profit-seeking individuals who took advantage of artificially low State prices to buy bread for fattening livestock...

...After a brief stay at a comparatively giddy height on the Party scale of priorities, agriculture also found itself demoted to its more accustomed position after 1958...

...But from which other sector should those resources be diverted...

...One may entertain a certain skepticism that this will change soon...

...If they decide on the latter, they must again choose which other cherished objectives must sacrifice the resources required by agriculture...

...Peasant incentives were lifted and collective farms found that they had resources to invest...

...No such easy potentials are left to be developed in Soviet agriculture...

...The results were striking...

...Some leaders, he said, even thought it should be possible to divert resources from agricultural investment to other sectors of the economy...

...Moreover, increased investments will bring a poor return if resources are used unwisely, which is now the case...

...In broader perspective, the present acute grain shortage is but an aggravated instance of a chronic agricultural crisis...

...Much talk is now loose in the Soviet Union about the necessity for a crash program of irrigation and fertilizer production...

...In the conviction that the agricultural problem was solved, the Soviet leadership, in the words of one American expert, appeared to "sit back to watch and eat...

...State purchase prices of farm goods, which Stalin had maintained at levels far below costs of production, were boosted...

...Dustbowl conditions now prevail over much of the Soviet Union's virgin lands...

...In particular, drought has drastically reduced the productivity of the new lands...

...Buoyed by success, Soviet planners set ambitious targets for agricultural growth during the period 1959-65...

...Increasing demands on scarce Soviet resources were levied by such high priority programs as the space effort, the arms race, foreign aid, and re-emphasized rapid growth in heavy industry...

...Instead of expanding, harvests exceeded the 1958 crop only in 1962—and this is now open to serious question due to doubts about the accuracy of official data...

...The apparent absence of grain reserves raises serious questions about Soviet agricultural performance in recent years...

...If this is true, then top Soviet officials have been misled and have only discovered in the past few months that the graneries were emptier than they had assumed...

...It may be that the falsification has occurred at the lowest level— that Soviet farmers responded to high-level pressure for larger harvests by inflating their reports...

...By this time an intensive debate was raging in Party circles over the proper priority to be accorded agriculture...

...The grain harvest this year may have been the worst in the past 10 years...

...The share of total State investment that was allocated to agriculture declined to about the same level that it had occupied during the Stalin era...

...This alternative, however, was quickly and emphatically rejected on the grounds that: "Such a decision would create the conditions our enemies are hoping for...

...The sequel to Khrushchev's oratory at the September 1953 plenum was an immediate and dramatic rise in agriculture's priority...

...Peasant workers and managers must be able to directly associate their efforts with a decent reward, and in the 30 years of its existence, the Soviet system of collectivized agriculture has been unable to permit them to do this...

...Only four days of controversy separated the first speech from the second, but in tone and content they were far apart indeed...

...Experts in the United States Department of Agriculture have suspected an increasing degree of exaggeration in these harvest data for at least the past six years...

...The statement announcing the price boost posed the rhetorical question: "Perhaps, for the sake of the quickest possible increase in meat and milk production, we should transfer funds to this area at the expense of our defense capacity and the development of our industry...

...Richard Judy is a specialist on economic affairs in the U.S.S.R...

...Fertilizer deliveries similarly lagged...

...Unfavorable climatic conditions have contributed to the poor showing in most years since 1958...

...Why has nothing gone as planned by Khrushchev and his colleagues...

...The 1961 harvest was reported to be 11 per cent below plan, meat output trailed by 16 per cent...

...Western calculations indicate that if Soviet harvests since 1953 had been as high as officially reported, there should have been very ample reserves to meet the contingency of this year's crop failure...

...The size of the Soviet grain imports is enormous, with the total cost expected to exceed one billion dollars...

...Serious conclusions must be drawn from this," he continued...

...A possible explanation is that official harvest reports for recent years may have been greatly exaggerated...

...The crop catastrophe of 1963 presents the Soviet leadership with agonizing choices...

...At the other extreme were the champions of undiminished top priority for space, military, and heavy industry...

...A quantity of grain was "borrowed" from Rumania and negotiations are now under way in Washington which may lead to large sales of American wheat...

...On June 1, 1962, the retail prices of meat went up by 30 per cent and butter prices were boosted by 25 per cent...

...In any case, it is now very difficult to accord the official data much credence, for the harvests for recent years may have been as much as 30 per cent below official claims...

...The Soviet leadership finally recognized that, as Khrushchev put it, only "a fool is going to raise meat production if the more he produces, the more the collective or State farm loses...

...Importation of food became an immediate necessity...

...Crop failure and negligible reserves placed the Soviet leadership in great difficulty...

...The arguments that occasioned this retreat may be surmised from his remarks...

...Soviet farms also received greatly increased quantities of trucks, tractors, and other equipment, and from 1953 to 1958 deliveries of mineral fertilizer rose by nearly two-thirds...

...The buttressing of Soviet military power is our most important task, and we will perform it unflinchingly...

...Soviet farms received only 62 per cent as many trucks during the years 1959-61 as in the preceding three years...

...The results were thus inconclusive: Farmers were asked to content themselves with vague promises of larger material inputs and admonitions to make better use of the equipment available...

...Grain harvests for the years 1954-58 were reportedly about 40 per cent above the level for the period 1949-53...

...in fact, the share of all State investments going to agriculture increased by half...

...The entire economy may be undermined if the agricultural lag is not recognized and remedied in good time...

...Both the State and the Party issued appeals to the population to exercise great care in the use of grain and bread...

...Agriculture must not be treated lightly...

...Khrushchev greatly expanded state investment in agriculture...

...Each additional bushel of grain wrought from recalcitrant nature will cost the Kremlin more resources...

...Later in 1962, the matter of priorities was made even more explicit...

...Everything testifies to the acuteness of the present food crisis in the U.S.S.R.: The expenditure of such quantities of gold and foreign exchange is unprecedented in Soviet history...

...The second was a proposal for the intensification of Soviet agriculture, i.e., for raising acreage yields and placing emphasis on animal husbandry...

...Indications are that the Russians feel great urgency for immediate delivery...

...A DECADE OF AGRICULTURAL FAILURE Russia's Continuing Crisis By Richard Judy On September 3, 1953, Nikita Khrushchev went before the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union to sound the tocsin: Agriculture was in crisis...

...The immediate crisis of 1963 is acute...

...A long and viciously cold winter killed many crops before they could sprout...

...They may choose to become dependent on foreign food...

...Rainfall in these areas is always sparse and irregular, and abundant harvests were possible in the first few years of their exploitation because moisture had been stored in the soil during the preceeding long period of fallow...

...Bread shortages were reported as early as mid-summer...

...It had long been evident that one reason for lagging Soviet livestock production lay in the fact that State purchase prices for animal products were far beneath the average costs of production...

...Moderate concessions have been made to the resource requirements of agriculture in the past two years, but it is clear that this sector of the economy has yet to be really lifted high on the Party's scale of priorities...

...The poor harvest apparently caught the Soviets with grain reserves that were insufficient to tide them over until next year...

...At present, it appears that the advocates of high priority for agriculture are in the ascendant...

...By American standards, the Russian diet continued to be monotonous and starchy, but by local standards Soviet tables were more abundantly spread than they had been since before collectivization...

...These were relatively cheap gains in terms of the investments required to bring them about...

...Agricultural gains during the period 1954-58 were due, in large measure, to a vast expansion of the cultivated acreage...

...To this end, Khrushchev recommended that millions of acres of grassland and fallow be seeded to grain and forage crops, and called for a broad program of technical and material aid to agriculture...

...The continuous grain cropping and inadequate fallowing of recent years have combined with paltry rainfall to deplete drastically the moisture content of the soil...

...A decade of Khrushchevian husbandry has passed, and Soviet agriculture remains in crisis...

...But Khrushchev prevailed, and vast quantities of men and material were sent to the steppe...

...At the time of his death in 1953, Soviet agriculture had not yet recovered from the twin traumata of collectivization and wartime destruction...

...If and when these are provided, the problem of motivating the Russian peasant will remain...

...By the end of 1961, it was obvious to the Soviet leaders that agriculture was lagging far behind what had been expected...

...The output of livestock products increased sharply...

...and milk production fell behind by nearly 13 per cent...

...A plenary meeting of the Central Committee is scheduled for November to consider these programs...

...Perhaps the most decisive Khrushchevian measure during the period 1952-58 was the plowing of about 100 million acres of virgin and idle land on the steppes of Kazakhstan, Western Siberia, and other eastern areas...

...Noting that State and Party attention to agriculture had declined in recent years, the Soviet Premier asserted that "some officials display unconcern and irresponsibility with respect to the urgent problems of increasing the output of equipment, mineral fertilizers, herbicides, etc...

...Higher prices were necessary, and this meant a diversion of resources from some other sector of the economy into animal husbandry...

...The wisdom of this venture was questioned in the Soviet Union and abroad on the grounds that the climate in these areas was too arid and erratic for agriculture...

...Russian orders for vast quantities of flour went out to brokers in Western Europe and colossal wheat purchases were contracted from Australia and Canada...

...Vast quantities of capital and chemicals will be required...

...At one extreme were those who argued that agriculture must be stimulated whatever the cost might be to other sectors of the economy...

...The latter opposed any measure that appeared to transfer resources from these claimants to agriculture...

...The Stalinist strategy of economic development gave agriculture, along with other consumer-related sectors, a very low priority...

...Such erroneous views were alleged to be held even by unnamed persons in departments of the Central Committee...

...Stalin's main interests in agriculture were to squash any potential political opposition from the peasants and to extract as much farm produce as cheaply as possible for export and urban consumption...

...or they may choose to force a tightening of the citizens' belts...

...or, finally, they may choose to do what is necessary to develop their own agriculture...

...The debate over priorities is dramatically illustrated in two speeches by Khrushchev—one was his keynote address to the March 1962 plenum, the other his concluding remarks to the same body...

...A plenum of the Central Committee was convened in March 1962 to consider agricultural problems...

...He said: " measures for increasing aid to agriculture do not signify that resources will now be diverted to agriculture at the expense of the development of industry and the strengthening of the nation's defenses...

...the summer was hot and dry in many parts of the country, causing widespread drought...

...A harvest upon which the nation could subsist in 1953 was grossly inadequate in 1963: The population had grown by 37 million mouths...

...It is also clear that significant increases in Soviet farm output are likely to be forthcoming only in response to massive resource inputs...

...Time will tell if and to what extent this is true...

...Khrushchev's keynote speech contained two important proposals: The first was a retrogressive plan for the formation of a Party bureaucracy to supervise the operation of collective and State farms...

...Contrary to plan, Soviet agricultural developments since 1958 have been dismal...

...Instead, it was decided that the funds for the development of animal husbandry would be lifted from the pockets of Soviet consumers...