What Next in Turkey?

...The original proposal, based on the recommendations of Professor Nicholas Kaldor, a Cambridge University economist, would have had rich farmers and landowners share the tax burden on the basis of three flexible criteria: size of land, actual earnings and potential productivity...

...A wide gulf stretches between landowners and peasants, between industrialists and workers, between businessmen and salaried civil servants (Army officers, generally considered to harbor a grudge against the wealthy and the privileged, fall into this last category...

...Some observers believe that if Inönü can remain in office long enough to carry out basic reforms and attain a measure of economic progress, he will be able to silence the political agitators and take the wind out of the Army's sails...

...Others are more sanguine about the chances for democracy— provided, they hasten to add, the present Government (or preferably a stronger one) can stay in office long enough to carry out most of the urgently needed reforms...

...Turkey's economic and social problems are legion, and most of them are chronic: Sixty per cent of the population at or above school age is illiterate...

...Perhaps only a major external threat can hold them in check...

...As the amnesty campaign neared its climax, the Premier executed a deft political maneuver: On May 30, 1962, he resigned, leaving Turkey without a civilian government...

...Defense expenditures eat up one-quarter of the entire national budget (Turkey supports Europe's largest standing army, close to half a million men), while funds are scarce to combat hunger and poverty...

...If Turkey suffers no far-reaching crisis or military uprising, the plan's social and economic reforms can almost certainly be realized...

...But the farm lobby in Ankara is very strong because many of the major landowners are really feudal lords who wield enormous grass-roots power...

...Indeed, since 1960 when it had its first taste of governmental authority, the Turkish military has become so involved in what formerly were civilian affairs that the country's political future now hinges on how the bayonets are brandished and for whom the jets fly...

...a mere 10 per cent—all farmers in the top income bracket—share among themselves a whopping 52 per cent...

...When the Justice party and the anti-Government press stepped up their campaign for Bayar's release, Inönii took it upon himself, in the face of military oppotion, to have Bayar freed conditionally on grounds of failing health...

...In subsequent months the Army was able to discover and foil additional plots by ambitious officers before they were put into action...

...Turkish Rightists rally around two flags: "racism," meaning the unity of all Turks, both inside the country's borders and outside...

...On the night of May 20, 1963, however, another major attempt launched by Colonel Aydemir to establish a military dictatorship rocked the country...

...Some observers believe that Turkey has entered a pre-revolutionary era and is now biding time until a cataclysmic change (an economic or class revolution) takes place...

...At present there is little cultivable land that is not under cultivation, yet in recent years, famine has hit eastern Turkey more severely than ever before...

...The Government was in a position, it seemed, to focus its attention on the country's formidable and longstanding problems, which fall into three basic categories: political instability, economic difficulties and, most important at present, military pressures...

...Communism offers virtually no appeal, because of the country's traditional hostility toward Russia...

...The Five-Year Plan has based many of its provisions on the assumption that the private sector, which accounts for 45 per cent of all investment activity, will expand swiftly...

...After a few weeks he came to be considered indispensable, and this enabled him to form a new coalition that included the two smaller parties represented in the Assembly...

...To be sure, the idea of a military state under a benevolent dictator finds support among certain groups, both within the Armed Forces and without...

...Economic development, in the final analysis, hinges on stable government...

...With a bureaucracy of about half-a-million civil servants, Turkey is saddled with Parkinson's Law on a massive scale...

...One result is that in the past three years close to 20,000 skilled workers who are vitally important to domestic industries have left Turkey for jobs in West Germany...

...By Talat Sait Halman "AN army that has run a country," a French political scientist once remarked, "is like toothpaste out of the tube: It is as difficult to get the soldiers back into the barracks as it is to get the toothpaste back into the container...

...Additional American aid is also expected...

...One-party dictatorship from 1938-46 under then President Inönü was intolerable...

...Urban unemployment and dislocation are also serious problems...

...About 40 per cent of the population is under 15 years of age—a mass of consumers as yet making no productive contribution to the economy...

...Confronted with this rapid urbanization, municipal facilities have failed to absorb the influx and slums have proliferated...

...But the abortive putsches of February 1962 and May 1963 clearly sought power for its own sake: not for freedom, which the Turkish people now enjoy to a greater extent than ever before, nor for economic reforms, which the present civilian Government is capable of carrying out...

...This second coalition proved much more effective, partly because of Inonii's strengthened position and partly because many politicians now foresaw an Army takeover in the event of its failure...

...There is one practicing doctor for every 4,000 citizens (one for every 50,000 in depressed areas), although 2,500 young and competent Turkish physicians are employed in the United States and Europe...

...Some subscribe to one form or another of authoritarianism...

...Giirsel made several futile attempts to find a coalition Premier...

...Inonii's party and the Justice party were persuaded to form a coalition, with Inönii as Premier...

...It is to the junta's credit that it endeavored to strengthen Turkey's democratic institutions, shared its executive functions with a nonpartisan civilian cabinet and its legislative authority with a constituent assembly, introduced a progressive constitution and a new electoral law, and established a State Planning Organization to regulate economic development...

...For one thing, administrative reform is clearly a sine qua non...

...The Air Force, which has the might to make or break any coup, is reported to have Socialist learnings...

...Since 1950 industrial expansion has maintained an impressive rate, and multitudes of poverty-stricken peasants have streamed into industrial centers...

...Reactionaries, purblind chauvinists and Islamists of every variety have been able to carry on political agitation through well-organized associations, the Justice party, and dozens of newspapers and magazines...

...For months the party had maintained that only a political amnesty would bring peace and tranquility to the country...

...It took a full six months of debate to get the Development Plan approved by the cabinet and adopted by the Grand National Assembly...

...Still, the highest agricultural incomes have remained taxexempt for nearly four decades...

...Anti-Bayardemonstrations, mainly by university students, broke out in Ankara and Istanbul, and angry mobs demolished the national headquarters of the Justice party...

...But until May 27, 1960, when the Turkish Army toppled the repressive regime of Premier Adnan Menderes in a bloodless coup d'état, the first and only successful coup in the four decades of the Republic, the military had always stayed out of politics...

...Heir apparent to the Democratic party and a thin disguise for it, Giimiispala's party attracted many of Turkey's reactionary elements and campaigned for political amnesty...

...others favor a continued multi-party system and private enterprise on a limited scale...

...Most of the prisoners were in fact released in the first eight months...

...Although it participated in the coalition, the Justice party assumed the role of an opposition...

...The Justice party, whose irresponsible actions were later brought to light during an extensive parliamentary investigation, was severely discredited by the Bayar affair...

...More than twothirds of the people have no electricity, and at least half of the agrarian population has little or no sanitary drinking water...

...Its fundamental target is a 7 per cent annual rate of balanced growth, based on a system of investment priorities and coordinated allocation of resources...

...It sustained one major internal crisis in mid-November 1960, caused by the dismissal of Colonel Alpaslan Tiirkes, mastermind of the original coup, and 13 other Committee members, who advocated an extended period of authoritarian rule...

...A little more than a year after assuming power, though, the military junta willingly turned the country's administration over to a freely elected legislature and civilian government...

...Released on March 22, 1963, Bayar was rearrested in less than a week—again, under pressure from the military...

...There is an important difference to be noted among these various attempts of the military to take over the reins of government...

...But the Armed Forces themselves, once united in aspiration and point of view, by no means represent a solid front today...

...But to the Justice party, a portion of the press, and other opposition elements, the Army's interference is merely a prelude to full military dictatorship...

...In recent years the Turkish military has tended more and more to divide internally along doctrinal lines...

...Thus, before the Plan was even submitted to the legislature the proposed tax measure was killed at the Cabinet level...

...Martial law was imposed in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, and the would-be revolutionaries, having been rounded up and placed in jail, now face possible death sentences...

...The country is heavily agricultural: At least 75 per cent of the entire population is engaged in the agricultural sector, which generates 40 per cent of the total national income...

...Factions have developed around a host of ideologies and doctrines: Socialism, capitalism, multi-party rule, single-party rule, one-man dictatorship, military oligarchy, guided democracy, proletarian democracy, etc...

...and religionism, which seeks greater power and freedom for Islam...

...And most of the loyalists seem not so much interested in democracy as in some form of stable government under Inön...

...The junta did fulfill its pledge to establish a civilian parliamentary regime...

...Yet barely four months later, on February 22, 1962, a new putsch was attempted by some disgruntled Army units and cadets led by Colonel Talât Aydemir...

...Third, and most important, the Plan's success or failure will depend on the political situation...

...Inonii's Republican People's party Rpp, favored by the outgoing junta and generally expected to win comfortably, turned out to have a weak mass base...

...In major cities, large slum areas are growing...

...The expected revenue from the agricultural sector is now about $10 million...

...In the process, three of the Plan's major proposals—tax reform, land reform, and reorganization of State economic enterprises — ran afoul of strong political pressures and underwent drastic changes to suit the preferences of vested interest groups...

...Military governments in the Middle East, of course, are almost as common as cabinet changes in the West...

...A 38-man military junta, calling itself the National Unity Committee, assumed power and pledged a threemonth period of interim rule until political reforms could be carried out and free elections held...

...Ninety per cent of the agrarian workers receive only 48 per cent of all agricultural income...

...instead, it brought increased unrest and turmoil...

...more than a million people now suffer a dismal existence in shacks and shanties without light, heat or running water...

...Besides its ineptness in routine administration and its failure to provide badly needed reform legislation, the Committee forced more than 7,000 officers into retirement and alienated many intellectuals by unnecessarily interfering with thi...

...And in the eyes of many Turks—particularly dissident members of the officers' corps—the present civilian regime has also proved to be ineffectual...

...Second, private enterprise will have to play an enlightened role in the country's development efforts...

...Kurdish claims to territory in southeastern Turkey, for example, which are supported by the Soviet Union, could prove to be exactly the sort of diversion that would keep the Turkish Armed Forces busy and united—and out of politics...

...Since early 1962, he also has been careful to strengthen his alliance with both the Army and the Air Force...

...Nevertheless, the turbulence of the amnesty campaign has left its imprint on the political scene...

...It was replaced by a compromise measure which extended certain income-tax provisions to a smaller bracket of high agricultural earnings, but also increased the tax burden on the middle and lower classes...

...Its avowed aim was to restore democracy to Turkey...

...only a handful, including Celai Bayar, remained behind bars...

...Free elections were held on October 15, 1961, and a new bicameral legislature, the Grand National Assembly, came into being...

...But, on the whole, the National Unity Committee failed to live up to its name...

...The failure of the latest putsch may have frightened and discouraged some insurgents for the time being, but it is unlikely that their ambitions have been permanently thwarted...

...Others wistfully yearn for the 15 year-long single-party regime (1923-38) of Kemal Atatürk...

...It is not surprising, then, that many career officers earnestly believe an efficient and forceful military dictatorship is needed to continue Atatiirk's basic reforms and solve Turkey's economic problems...

...What is more, the attempted coup in May came at a particularly unfortunate moment...

...Without Inönü or someone like him, the loyalists may not remain loyal for very long...

...Its presence has often been felt by the legislature and, less frequently, by the judiciary...

...Many commanders and young officers, as well as some civilians, see the Army's influence and occasional direct intervention as serving a regulatory function in a multi-party system where democratic institutions are not firmly entrenched...

...Nor is there anyone on the political horizon who would command the support and protection of the present military leaders...

...For the first time since he took office in November 1961, Premier Ismet Inönü appeared to have overcome most of the immediate dilemmas besetting his Government and to be exercising effective civilian control...

...From election day on, however, civilian rule ran into trouble because no single group was able to win a clear majority...

...Only the intervention of loyalist forces, notably the Air Force, saved the civilian government...

...and, because of its strategic position and alliances, it obtains substantial economic aid...

...To make matters worse, Turkey's population, now close to 30 million, is growing at an alarming 3 per cent a year (almost the highest rate in the world...

...It was estimated that nearly $100 million in revenue would be gained under this system...

...The Justice party, under General Ragip Gümüspala, whom the junta had forced into retirement, emerged with surprising strength, winning almost as many seats as Inonii's group...

...Once economic stability is achieved, it is reasoned, the military will have no cause to meddle in politics...

...As soon as martial law was lifted and a civilian administration replaced the military junta, many newspapers and organizations took advantage of the new constitutional safeguards to burst into vehement ideological argument...

...In addition, several hundred former MPs received jail sentences, although in most cases the legality of the convictions appeared debatable...

...The initial 1960 coup had the makings of a revolution for freedom and progress...

...Although Turkey's entrepreneurial system is for the most part well organized and often shows initiative, segments of it are still afflicted with egregious profiteering, a dangerous tendency toward trusts and monopolies, and the illicit outflow of Turkish funds to other countries...

...Early this year, in an attempt to accelerate economic growth, the Inönü Government put into operation a comprehensive Five-Year Development Plan...

...What happened to the proposed tax reform, which caused the greatest uproar, is an instructive example of how the politicians acted...

...A consortium, made up of Western nations which extend financial assistance to Turkey, recently decided to funnel about $1.5 billion into Turkey's development over the next five years...

...They have simply lost their faith in the politicians, whose disingenuousness and vindictiveness they hold responsible for making a mockery of the legislature and pushing the country to the brink of economic disaster...

...Again loyalist forces, buttressed by overpowering jets, crushed the insurgents...

...During the past three years, the Army has established itself as Turkey's fourth estate...

...Unified at the outset, the Socialists have since divided into several splinter groups...

...it is comparatively advanced in education and industrialization...

...But within a matter of months Inönü will be 80 years old...

...the other consists of conservative elements, including "racists" and religious fanatics, who seek a return to Menderes' policies and are sharply critical of the National Unity Committee and the present Government...

...Since 1945, Turkey has received more than $2 billion in direct aid and over $1 billion in loans, grants and surplus commodities...

...This will require sweeping economic and social reforms...

...Multi-party rule from 1946-60 left the country bitterly divided and economically bankrupt...

...Tuberculosis afflicts 2.5 per cent of all Turks...

...And in Turkey, as recent events have amply demonstrated, the Army is no exception to this rule...

...Economic progress will depend, however, on whether or not certain other requirements can be met...

...Pro-Bayar crowds, organized by the Justice party, staged a spectacular hero's welcome for the former President, who then delivered several explosive speeches in defiance of parole conditions which specified that he refrain from political activity...

...Per capita income, according to the best available estimates, averages about $190 a year (15 times smaller than the U.S...

...As acknowledged by the Government itself, inequity is more the rule than the exception in Turkey's economic system...

...Indeed, it may well be that only Ismet Inönü's presence at the head of the Government has kept the majority of the officers loyal to the civilian regime...

...its direct pressure has been brought to bear upon the executive branch of the Government...

...Among underdeveloped countries, Turkey ranks high in natural resources...

...Meanwhile, Inönii gained prestige—and the favor of the Army high command...

...In general, too, political debate in Turkey has grown increasingly inflammatory during the past two years, largely because both the extreme Right and the extreme Left have come out into the open...

...But whatever happens, it is clear there are grim days ahead for democracy in Turkey...

...When three years ago the Turkish Army overthrew the Menderes Government—following a period of vehement opposition by the middle class, the press and the intellectuals, which culminated in impassioned student demonstrations —it quickly dissolved the National Assembly, outlawed Menderes' Democratic party and imprisoned all its MPs and cabinet members as well as President Celai Bayar...

...Although in exceptionally good health and extremely energetic for his age, it is doubtful that he will be able to carry the burden of his office for any great length of time...

...This logic ignores the fact that by now most of the would-be rebels are anxious to seize power, no matter what the circumstances...

...finally, renewed Army pressure silenced political debate...

...Talat Sait Halman, a freelance writer who now lives in New York City, was formerly with the Turkish Stale Planning Organization...

...At the other extreme are the Socialists (the Communist party is outlawed in Turkey), a small group of intellectuals who are influential beyond their numbers and have been active since the early days of 1962...

...Being a former Army general and a hero of Turkey's war of independence, the Premier has long had the confidence and respect of the military high commands...

...Most agree, though, that for the immediate future at least, the central question is whether the Armed Forces will allow a civilian government to stay on long enough to be effective...

...all, however, seek greater centralized control of the economy...

...Military rule in 1960-61 solved few outstanding problems, and created a host of others...

...Despite such obstacles to economic reform, many economists are optimistic about the prospects of planned development in Turkey...

...The Plan was prepared by a group of young Turkish economists and sociologists who worked for nearly two years under the periodic supervision of the renowned Dutch econometrist Jan Tinbergen...

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...Out of every 1,000 babies born, 165 die before the age of one...

...Land erosion claims a heavy economic toll, and deforestation continues unchecked...

...The new Government debated and adopted Turkey's first Five-Year Development Plan, and initiated a multi-phase amnesty program aimed at freeing all political prisoners within a maximum period of two years...

...Some of those who not too long ago were champions of a democratic system now express their preference for a "guided democracy" comparable to Muhammed Ayub Khan's Pakistan...

...But agrarian unemployment stands at a million or more even in the most active season...

...Apart from the Atatürk era, the history of the Turkish Republic offers few clues as to what would be best...

...The Committee actually remained in power for a year-and-a-half...

...The new Turkish Constitution, which went into effect immediately after a nation-wide referendum in July 1961, guarantees full freedom of expression...

...The public is now bitterly divided into two camps —one supports the RPP and the Inönü Government, which incline toward progressive reforms...

...Under pressure from the Armed Forces, the Assembly elected as President General Cemal Giirsel, leader of the May 1960 coup and chief of state during the period of military rule...

...universities...

...It was precisely this open display of an appetite for raw power, especially during the latest military insurrection, that shocked so many Turks...

...Pressing for amnesty at a time when major reform legislation was an absolute necessity, and investments to bolster the stagnant economy were waiting for calm and stability, it turned the Assembly into a cockpit of agitation...

...This was true despite the fact that the founder and shaper of modern Turkey, Kemal Atatiirk, was himself an Army officer...

...in view of the despotic tendencies of the Menderes Government, it appeared to be justified...

...The execution of Menderes and two of his ministers also caused great resentment and unrest: The death sentences were handed down by a special tribunal more than 15 months after the coup— long after public bitterness against the Premier and his associates, who for years had enjoyed the staunch support of millions, had subsided...