After the Cease-Fire-Two Articles:

...But not many Frenchmen share de Gaulle's rosy visions...

...Consequently, education alone will impose a relatively heavy burden on Algerian authorities...

...To offer primary education to all Algerian children, and an opportunity for secondary education to 10 per cent, will cost $240 million in 1963 and $400 million in 1980...

...Even if the 4 per cent target were hit year after year, it would take the Algerians half a century to attain a standard of living barely half that now enjoyed by the countries of northwestern Europe...

...lack of cheap fuel...

...It would also wreck the General's plans for a larger French role in Europe and in the Atlantic Alliance...

...At present, the colons still seem to be victims of a collective psychosis reminiscent of the German Götterdämmerung in the winter of 1944-45...

...One can only hope that when the time comes for the Algerian authorities to decide educational policy, they will choose French teachers rather than the mischief-making propagandists Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser likes to export from Egypt...

...But if need be, they would try to adapt themselves to life without France, as the Guineane did a few years ago...

...The Government estimates that 85 per cent of the voters will approve its policy in the scheduled referendum...

...He would rather see the Secret Army defeated by Moslems under French control than risk the failure of his policy of association...

...The French in Algeria will blow up the docks, the bridges, the railway lines, the power plants and the whole infrastructure of Saharan oil...

...They will destroy everything they have built...

...He now wants to spend a large part of these funds on atomic armaments and the modernization of French farms and factories...

...On the face of it, these apprehensions seem somewhat exaggerated...

...Saharan oil and gas could now meet Algeria's fuel needs...

...For the first time, they seemed clearly to understand that this was the only reasonable solution, and pledged to stay loyal to their Commander-in-Chief, whatever may happen...

...How will they react when they realize that their leaders have "compromised" to the extent of allowing the French Army, police and Administration to retain considerable authority during a lengthy transitional period...

...De Gaulle has repeatedly warned that, in such a case, there would be only one way out: the regroupment and gradual repatriation of most Europeans in Algeria...

...When they meet Europeans who once humiliated them...

...The next few months will show whether he or his enemies have a better grasp of reality...

...Their misfortune will spread to France...

...He is sure that he can destroy the OAS without Left-wing assistance...

...The conversion will take time, but it could absorb as many as 100,000 unemployed rural workers and expand Algeria's inadequate food production...

...The Fourth Republic collapsed, and General de Gaulle was brought to power...

...Clearly, it is absolutely imperative for the French government to finish with Salan and his gangs before the Algerian vote on self-determination...

...In the last few weeks the French Rightwing Secret Army Organization (OAS) has stirred up such a crescendo of bloodshed, destruction and intercommunal hate that hope of an effective cease-fire in such cities as Algiers and Oran is fragile...

...A plan to raise living-standards by an average of 2 per cent per annum would require the investment of close to $10 billion in the same period...

...This is one of the main explanations for why the man in the Elysée remains superbly confident...

...they are almost unavoidable during the transition period...

...Yet historians may some day decide that the turning point in the war came one afternoon in the summer of 1957 when a group of senior French officials submitted to President René Coty a sober—and somber—report on demographic and economic conditions in Algeria...

...There was no evading its conclusions...

...But according to his entourage, this is completely out of the question...

...If General de Gaulle is unable to put a stop to secret connivance between the OAS and certain echelons of the Army, police and Administration in Algeria, National Liberation Front (FLN) leaders may have no choice but to ask their followers to vote a clean break with France...

...But the Moslem population still seems likely to be more than 15 million in 1980 and over 27 million in 2000...

...Some Algerians are worried, too, about the attitude of moderate Right-wing elements in the French Army and Administration whose cooperation will be needed during the transitional period...

...Even if the financial obstacle can be overcome, the problem of recruiting teachers will remain: In the whole of Algeria not one teacher has been trained by the authorities to impart instruction to Algerian children in their native language (Arabic or Berber...

...He also remembers how inept they showed themselves at fighting for their ideals—especially in Algeria —when they had a chance to do so after the January 1956 elections...

...The trouble with this novel version of a "scorched earth" policy is that it could also wreck France's future in Algeria...

...The authors of the Maspétiol report also could not confidently foresee the transfer, within so short a time, of most European-owned land to Moslems...

...They are quoting with horror the forecasts of Alain de LacosteLareymondie, one of the 80 Rightwing deputies who recently adopted a motion in favor of Salan...

...highways and railroads have deteriorated...

...Socialist leader Robert Verdier, a close friend of Guy Mollet, wrote in the latest issue of La Tribune Socialiste: "After the cease-fire, we shall find ourselves in a situation fraught with peril...

...In principle this enabled 24 per cent (but in practice only about 20 per cent) of all Moslem children to receive a rudimentary primary education—in French— and about 5 per cent to attend high school...

...But he feels that everything essential is now under control and that France and the new Algerian republic will soon work together harmoniously...

...Mohammed Ben Bella and his friends would regret such a development...

...Although much of what the Maspétiol report says is now only of historical interest, it provides a compelling survey of the economic problems the Algerian nationalist leaders are about to inherit...

...But it would be folly not to realize that while only a few of them are Communists or Islamic extremists, many of them could be pushed into Communist arms by either officiousness or lack of sympathy on the part of the West...

...But, at this writing, the OAS still rules supreme in Oran, the country's second largest port, and the situation in Bone, Constantine and Mostaganem is far from clear...

...Many officers and officials, though shocked by OAS excesses, are nevertheless embittered by the outcome of France's long struggle in Algeria and sensitive to the anonymous pamphleteers' gibes about "de Gaulle's Dienbienphu...

...If they trace officers and officials responsible for their ill-treatment...

...The Right-wing politicians, while careful not to condone terrorist outrages publicly, hope that the OAS pressure will finally oblige de Gaulle to seek a compromise with the more "moderate" chauvinists and establish a military dictatorship in France...

...By 1980 the rate will be 135 to 100— almost as many Moslems of school age as in the whole of France...

...In 1955-56, too, nearly one million male Algerians were unemployed or underemployed...

...There have been rumors here that de Gaulle will retire after an Algerian peace is successfully concluded...

...Moslems, after all, are no better at "turning the other cheek" than Christians...

...Moreover, France could not supply the capital needed without disrupting its own development...

...They know that this remains a sacred period in France, a period with which politics must not interfere...

...With independence, tariff barriers could be raised to protect local industry in its fledgling years...

...Moreover, the Leftists argue, the Fifth Republic itself remains a hybrid affair...

...No other African or Arabicspeaking people has had to fight so long or so hard for its freedom...

...Although Algerian oil exports will have to face stiff Middle Eastern and Russian competition, France, Britain and Spain are all eager to buy Saharan methane...

...Judging by the latest events in Algiers, it seems that the Army cadres—even those who remained lukewarm until now—have at last understood what is at stake...

...the UNR leaders hope for up to 300...

...He anticipates many more tense moments, surprises and local clashes...

...They can create extreme political confusion in France...

...They are counting very much on the April 8 referendum to show the deluded colons that the French people are behind de Gaulle and consider the Evian pact irreversible...

...The regime's fragility will permit all sort of provocations...

...As for the General himself, he is more than ever convinced that he will not have to make a choice...

...They are not all that impressed by what they have thus far experienced of Western civilization...

...In a talk delivered shortly before the cease-fire announcement, Louis Joxe, French Minister for Algerian Affairs, persuaded the 100 most important military commanders in Algeria to affirm the pact between France and the Algerian rebels and to apply it in the field...

...FLN spokesman M'hammed Yazid feels that Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba, King Hassan II of Morocco and even President Kennedy could be counted upon to help the new republic stay afloat financially, if only in order to keep it out of the Communist camp...

...For more than seven years, armed only with heterogeneous light weapons, tattered Algerian guerrilla bands successfully defied a French Army of 600,000 men, a wellequipped Air Force, utterly ruthless police and intelligence services, and a Navy that patrolled the coast and at times helped the ground artillery to bombard rebel villages...

...The best results, though, would be obtained by a government that was both strong and popular...

...In the spring of 1958 the agitation and plots succeeded...

...And even so critical an observer as Pierre Mendès-France predicts that the Gaullist Union for the New Republic party (UNR) will win a sweeping election victory...

...But they are resigned to do the smashing without him, if necessary...

...The violence and hatred they have stored up...

...His self-exile is still an exception, but others are getting ready to follow him and many more would if they could afford to...

...Their letters show that they are impatient to enjoy the fruits of victory...

...June: vote on self-determination in Algeria...

...The economists could pick no serious holes in it...

...In the past, the development of manufacturing industry in Algeria has been held back by five main factors: inadequate tariff protection against French imports...

...It was no longer necessary for the Algerian nationalists to attempt the daunting task of driving out the French Army and Administration by military action...

...Today, de Gaulle relies only on himself and the State apparatus at his disposal...

...But a massive injection of foreign capital will still be needed, if only to maintain Algerian living-standards at their present abysmal level...

...It was the day when the Secret Army Organization (OAS) opened fire on the French Army in Algiers and, by killing eight young conscript soldiers, started what many observers are already calling the second Algerian war...

...They profess sincere interest in cooperating with France for a long time to come...

...and the low purchasing power of the bulk of the Moslem population, whose average annual income is under $50 a head...

...The authors of the Maspétiol report estimated that to hold Moslem living-standards at their present level, it would be necessary to invest $5-6 billion in Algerian industry—exclusive of petroleum prospection and pipeline construction— over the next 20 years...

...General de Gaulle has no doubt that he is going to win this war...

...They estimated that it would be 18 million in 1980 and more than 30 million by the end of the century...

...They do not want to spoil those warm days on the beaches where the word plastique will be given a chance to recover its true French meaning: the curves of a beautiful girl...

...They say the General considers himself only at the beginning of his mission...

...But all that the apparent triumph of the Algérie française lobby meant was that the education of France's leaders on Algeria had to begin again—and that the war would drag on another three-and-ahalf years...

...What will happen...

...Many Left-wing leaders are inclined to take such warnings quite seriously...

...Speed is of the essence, for Raoul Salan's desperados appear prepared to bring down the whole country with them rather than admit defeat...

...Thus the France of his dreams will regain the status of a major world power that can talk on equal terms with the other major powers (China included...

...If the officers in charge of these zones continue to hesitate, de Gaulle is expected to give a much freer hand to the new Moslem auxiliary force in fighting the OAS...

...Then they will come over here...

...On March 1, 1962, its gold reserves amounted to an unprecedented $3 billion...

...other reports expanded and complemented it...

...It must be remembered that the referendum on self-determination that is scheduled to take place there in three months will offer the Algerians a choice between "independence in association with France" and "independence by secession from France...

...They fought and suffered "pour que ça change—mais totalement," as one of them recently wrote...

...While he may share most of their liberal ideas, he has not forgotten how they let him down in 1947...

...Algerian leaders say that all the big European estates will be nationalized...

...In the first four years of his rule, he has wound up the Algerian war and made France a prosperous country again...

...On the other hand, it must be recorded that General de Gaulle's government has given generous assistance in this sphere to African states whose medium of instruction is French...

...They are determined to exploit their victory to the full in order to achieve a social as well as a national revolution...

...In addition there is anxiety, more widespread than Algerian nationalists like to admit, about Algeria's economic prospects...

...They point out that this would not be the first time since the French Revolution that a minority of adventurers tried to challenge the popular will...

...The hatred and resentment nourished by seven years of an inexpiable war, the state of mind of certain Army units, the bad will of many high officials stubbornly clinging to outdated concepts will make such provocations fearful...

...He is trying to save them from the consequences of their own extreme passions...

...Provided the Algerians swallow their pride and allow their children to be taught in a foreign language for a few more years, they will probably be able to count on a steady supply of teachers from France...

...Those politicians who had previously voiced enthusiastic approval of repressive action in Algeria began, for the most part, to have second thoughts...

...The deputy, who plays a prominent role among the Independents, declared in an interview: "De Gaulle wants to get rid of Algeria, but he won't succeed...

...It is de Gaulle, therefore, not the OAS, who is working for the Europeans' future in Algeria...

...And at Algiers University, fewer than 10 per cent of the students are Moslems, a neat reversal of the ethnic composition of the country's total population...

...But it would be churlish to detract from the Algerians' achievement...

...April: referendum on de Gaulle's Algerian policy...

...Raising living-standards by an average of 4 per cent per annum would necessitate the investment of nearly $19 billion by 1980...

...French officials have already drawn up a detailed schedule of public events for the next few months...

...The Algerian nationalists owe much of their political education to the French Left...

...He thinks the party will retain its 200 Parliamentary seats...

...Some officials even look forward to a falling-out among the OAS leaders, and the rapid disintegration of their movement...

...Ray Alan is a British correspondent who has reported on Europe, Africa and the Middle East for many years...

...The Leftists remain entangled in their old hatelove relationship with de Gaulle...

...Thus Gaul is once more in its long history divided in three parts...

...In interviews broadcast by Radio Tunis and Radio Lausanne, Algerian nationalist spokesmen have made it clear that their regime will be Socialistic...

...While the official radio and TV monopoly filled the air with chauvinist slogans and peptalks, assuring its listeners that Tamanrasset in the southern Sahara was as fundamental a part of France as Dunkirk, the Maspétiol report was quietly doing its work...

...Its authors recalled that the Moslem population of Algeria was 5 million in 1920 and 8.7 million in 1955...

...The question now is no longer whether the OAS will be liquidated, but when, how and by whom...

...Officials checked its facts and figures...

...The loyalty of their non-combattant supporters, who kept them supplied with food, shelter and recruits, survived one of the longest and most intensive campaigns of counter-terrorism and repression ever waged by a colonial power...

...Even today they would enthusiastically follow him if he put himself at the head of a coalition of workers, farmers, loyal French soldiers and Algerian rebel troops to smash the Salanists as he helped defeat the Nazis in World War II...

...On the other hand, useful discoveries of oil and gas have been made in the Sahara since 1957...

...The nation's honor and self-respect demand that the task be accomplished by the French Army...

...Agriculture has declined in areas where Moslem villagers, forced to abandon their fields and orchards, have been herded into "regroupment camps" to prevent their supplying or sheltering nationalist irregulars...

...Most of the internees have been beaten up or tortured by the French, and most of them will now be discovering for the first time the extent of the reprisals the authorities took against their families...

...It may be recalled that in the May 1945 disturbances alone, in the region around Serif and Guelma, the Air Force obliterated more than 40 villages...

...heavy transport charges (most of the population is concentrated in a zone 600 miles long by about 60 miles wide, yet it costs more to ship merchandise from Oran to Bone than from Marseilles to Bone...

...A break with Algeria, moreover, would weaken France's position in Tunisia and Morocco as well as de Gaulle's personal ascendancy over the nations of former French Africa...

...President Coty had copies of the Maspétiol report (named after its principal author) circulated to a score of France's leading economists and political personalities...

...The difference is that Hitler and Goebbels were then at the end of their rope, whereas Salan and his fellow-plotters are posing as the leaders of an up-and-coming revolution...

...In 1953-57 the French Administration in Algeria spent $56 million annually on education...

...Problems for Algeria By Ray Alan Paris ALGERIAN SATISFACTION Over the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations with France is mingled with deep anxiety...

...And conversation with individual Algerians elicits the qualification that, "It will not be a wishy-washy Guy Mollet type of Socialism, either...

...There may be a few minor changes in the dates, but the authorities want everything over by July 14 when summer vacations start...

...Already Britain is importing it by tanker, and a trans-Mediterranean pipeline is under discussion...

...His services, they say, are already too deeply infiltrated by Salan's agents to cope decisively with insurrection...

...May: dissolution of Parliament and new elections...

...He is no longer afraid of a military putsch...

...The General sees this next big effort as turning France into the natural leader of 250 million Europeans whose industrial capacity already surpasses that of the Soviet Union and may one day catch up with the United States...

...The report also disturbed the leaders of the Algérie française lobby, impelling them to step up their agitation and plots against the Fourth Republic...

...If this last policy were adopted, investment would have to run at a rate of about one-half of France's own rate of investment during the late 1950s...

...Salan, they say, is merely treading in the path of Napoleon III, General Boulanger, the military clique of the Dreyfus era and, finally, the Vichy regime...

...If, as happened when Guinea opted for independence, resentment overcomes reason and humanity, these men could create many difficulties during the transfer of power...

...I tell you, we are living on a volcano...

...Do you know their force...

...their speech is peppered with Leftish turns of phrase...

...French industrialists' and labor unions' fear of low-cost Algerian competition...

...In their eyes, Premier Michel Debré simply cannot shed his past as an ardent partisan of Algérie française...

...In contrast, France could only lose by Algeria's opting for complete independence...

...If they cannot have their way and restore colonial domination over the Moslems, they at least want to leave them nothing of value...

...All they had to do was hold on as a political force while the basic demographic and economic facts fought their battle for them...

...The liberation of tens of thousands of Algerians from prison and internment camps poses another delicate problem...

...The Maspétiol report declared that so modest a rate of improvement would obviously be "politically inadequate...

...In the post-Hitler period, at least, their struggle can be compared only with the Israeli and Indochinese wars of independence (and at the outset they seemed to have far less chance of success than either the Israelis or the Indochinese...

...By 1980, unless industrial employment opportunities are expanded, this figure will rise to between two and three million...

...The number of villages destroyed by French aircraft and artillery, whether in reprisal bombardments or in pursuance of a "scorched earth" policy, cannot even be estimated...

...And while the General is expecting a moderate flow of nonpolitical refugees from Algeria over the next few years and has made provisions for their reception, neither he nor the French people would care to lay out the welcome mat for tens of thousands of fascistinclined ?AS fighters...

...The famous, playwright Jean Anouilh, for example, has grown so disturbed by the situation that he has moved to Switzerland and registered his son in a Swiss college...

...Heavy capital expenditure will now be needed merely to repair war damage...

...But skeptics are afraid that bullets rather than ballots will shape French history in the months to come...

...Since the Maspétiol report was compiled, Algeria's economic plight has worsened...

...Houses, schools, factories and shops have been destroyed...

...The development of Algeria could only be carried out, the Maspétiol report stressed, either by a popular administration, capable of arousing its citizens' enthusiasm, or by a severely authoritarian regime...

...They also hope that the OAS, by its very excesses, will end up antagonizing many inhabitants of Algiers and Oran who long for peace as much as anyone else...

...Officers and units who try to disobey him will henceforth be actively opposed by a majority of enlisted men...

...The day will come when they will throw hand grenades into the cafés on the Champs-Elysées...

...landless peasants will be settled on them, cooperative methods of farming and marketing will be encouraged, and more than half a million acres of vineyard will be converted to cereal and fruit production...

...More recent estimates suggest that war casualties and the disruption of family life in many areas have slowed down demographic expansion since 1955...

...Like Alice, the young republic will have to run merely to stand still...

...George W. Herald is a veteran foreign correspondent based in Paris...

...They fear that he may never get a chance to make them come true, and they wonder whether France is on the verge of another prolonged conflict...

...President Coty had passed it on to General de Gaulle, who in due course circulated it to his ministers and advisers...

...In the course of the next few weeks, French authorities in Algeria will try hard to bring the European city dwellers back to their senses...

...and at the same time, because of the heavy investment it would require, it must be considered "Utopian...

...What is more, responsible Algerians fear that hot-heads among their fellow-countrymen may yet be provoked into perpetrating outrages that would not only sully the Algerian republic at birth but scare away the European teachers, doctors and teòhnicians it desperately needs...

...For every 100 adults in the Moslem population in 1955 there were 112 infants and adolescents...

...His contempt for Salan is matched only by his contempt for the professional Left-wing politicians...