'Merdeka' on the Rocks

...The costs involved in such a project would be huge, however, and Indonesia's economy is deeper in difficulties these days than ever before...

...The Dutch say the three boats carried about 100 soldiers assigned to "liquidate Dutch authorities" at Kaimana and set up an enclave of Indonesian sovereignty on the southwest coast of West Irian...

...In the brief battle that followed, one boat was sunk, a second was abandoned in flames and the third escaped...

...The dead included Commodore Josaphat Sudarso, Navy Deputy Chief of Staff and reportedly one of the ablest military men in Indonesia...

...Since soldiers in Makassar have been observed with grenades hanging loosely from buttons on their uniforms, this is a real possibility...

...Then Major General Achmad Jani, Sukarno's military spokesman and Chief of Staff of the West Irian Liberation Command, announced the matter would be taken up at the United Nations...

...United States Ambassador Howard Palfrey Jones was observed rushing out of his embassy, reportedly to see Sukarno...

...The two major earners of foreign exchange, for example, are oil and rubber exports...

...The big $250 million credit of 1960 remains almost untouched...

...Hong Kong sources report that in January three sample landing craft were ordered by Jakarta...

...Amid all the political intrigue, Sukarno remains the great imponderable...

...in August and September come the prestigious Asian Games, followed closely by a major international trade fair...

...All it has produced is a general survey spelling out the need for specific surveys...

...The lack of skilled labor, technical difficulties posed by the tropical climate, and general Indonesian reluctance to act decisively have slowed implementation of credits...

...But they want to make a graceful exit, and this Sukarno seems determined to deny...

...Both the PSI and the Masjumi were banned by Sukarno in 1960 for suspected links with the rebels, and both parties have been labeled Right-wing...

...And a painstaking organizer is what this country needs above all else if it is to reverse its present plunge into near-disaster...

...Among Sukarno's strongest backers is the PKI...

...But a check on the three Dutchmen first reported arrested disclosed that one (a pastor) had not been contacted by police, the second (a 73-yearold merchant) was nearly senile and in no condition to hurl grenades, and the third was a person unknown to anyone in Makassar's small, tightly knit European community...

...This may explain last week's bombing of a Dutch Navy vessel by Indonesian planes, especially surprising since at the time Dutch and Indonesian representatives were meeting in U.S.-sponsored talks...

...But massive injections of foreign aid are not enough...

...His schedule for the months ahead is a busy one: In May, he will go off to Britain for a state visit...

...Sukarno called his Cabinet into emergency session...

...Still, little actual work has been done...

...A key press conference in Makassar was cancelled, without explanation...

...Though work was slow to begin, it now seems that all athletic facilities will be ready for the start of the games on August 24...

...And of the 735,000 West Irians, 700,000 are Papuans with at best a Stone Age culture...

...Suharto says little about the degree of readiness so far achieved by his unified command (Army, Navy and Air Force), the first in Indonesian history, but he gives a strong impression that preparations are only getting under way...

...He also remains out of jail, for his stature is such that even Sukarno is wary of putting him behind bars...

...Audience response to his speeches is usually wildly enthusiastic...

...And, ready or not, Defense Minister Abdul Haris Nasution must act...

...The Air Force boasts ten TU-16 jet bombers (eight of which are on view daily at Jakarta's airfield), as well as at least 20 IL-28s, about 40 MIG 15s and 17s, 10 C-130 transports and many P-51s, Vampire jets and C-47s...

...In 1959, West Irian produced 230,000 metric tons of crude oil...

...No one expects it to remain quiet, however, should the President find himself in trouble...

...Perhaps the single most effective use of Soviet credits has been on the Asian Games site just outside Jakarta...

...But befuddlement began at Jakarta airport and blossomed as the trip progressed...

...The U.S...

...In addition money in circulation at the end of 1961 totaled about 60 billion rupiahs, compared to 42 billion at the end of 1960...

...And Major General Suharto, recently assigned to command Mandala, seems a thoughtful and methodical leader...

...Chairul Saleh, Minister for Development, has warned that 1962 will be worse than' 1961...

...Yet economic gains will be nil...

...At its third plenum last December, the party pledged total support on West Irian...

...As military ardor ebbed, political intrigue flared again...

...Much of the blame for the current state of Indonesia's economy can be traced to Sukarno's rambunctiousness over West Irian...

...A puzzled colonel in charge of infantry training in Makassar greeted newsmen by saying: "Gentlemen, we are happy you have come...

...If he can force the Dutch to run, his propaganda gains will be so much greater...

...The U.S...

...The strongest impression left on the visitor to Indonesia these days is one of disorganization rapidly approaching total chaos...

...Few opposition leaders feel free to speak, and many are in jail...

...The order for samples, it was noted, was accompanied by the purchase of a large quantity of lifebelts...

...in succeeding years the amounts have dwindled...

...The great natural resources of this scenically lovely country are virtually untapped...

...His reasons are obvious: Irian Barat (West New Guinea) has become a propaganda weapon in the President's efforts to bring about national unity...

...Jeeps were at the site, but no one had authority to commandeer them...

...In the first three quarters of 1961, Indonesia built up a trade deficit of $38 million, compared to a trade surplus of $298 million for the comparable period of 1960...

...Prospects are no brighter for 1962...

...Since 1950, the country has received just short of $2 billion in aid, 30 per cent of it from the Communist bloc...

...The Dutch shelled out $26 million last year to administer it...

...So far, he is alone in speaking out...

...Preparations in Indonesia have a way of becoming wildly confused moments after final decisions are taken, however...

...In the past year, foreign exchange reserves plummeted from $300 million to an estimated $10 million...

...Planes were three to five hours late, without explanation...

...Though it cannot be proved, the Jakarta grapevine claims the Communist party (PKI) put pressure on Sukarno to order the arrests as part of a continuing effort to clear away opposition to itself...

...In the middle of one of his self-intoxicating speeches he could decide that the moment for action has arrived...

...For all practical purposes, Sukarno's bluff was called in midJanuary, after a disastrous naval action in the straits of Aru...

...The increasing shakiness of the economy is also reflected in the continuing devaluation of the rupiah...

...And since 1956 the Soviet Union has chipped in credits of $371 million, mostly for splashy "impact" projects that reap the greatest propaganda benefits...

...Conceivably, the plan is to ferry troops in large ships to points just off-shore, then transfer them to the light-weight craft for actual landings...

...Not surprisingly, officials blame Dutch agents for the plot...

...A 30-minute live-fire exercise, billed as a spectacular, involved only about two dozen soldiers who appeared exhausted by the end of their show...

...And afterward, abandoned by their buses, newsmen slogged back two miles in the rain...

...Most of the rebels who left the fold in 1958 have returned...

...they are not eager to stay...

...Counterbalancing the arrest of the alleged Rightists was the ouster of Air Marshal Suryadi Suryadarma, Commander-in-Chief of the Indonesian Air Force and a Leftist...

...Actually, the opposite is true where hardware is concerned...

...News of the battle hit Jakarta hard...

...But there is nothing going on here now...

...Air Force leaders, apparently itching to use their new bombers against Biak and Hollandia, are counted as the extremists among the military...

...But Sukarno is not that predictable...

...The same is true for the super-phosphate plant at Tjilajap, Central Java...

...On the morning of January 16, Army, Navy and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, obviously shaken, refused all comment...

...Armed opposition to Sukarno has died down in the past year...

...A recent press junket from Jakarta to Makassar is an example...

...American military and economic attaches were tense: "This is all they need for a war," one said...

...The capital let out an almost audible sigh of relief...

...The territory Sukarno is so anxious to obtain offers little of value to anyone...

...But there is some suspicion here that the Communists' support may not be wholly altruistic: that they hope to profit from the inevitable confusion that will accompany a massive military effort, and to score even more heavily should the invasion fail...

...Popular support for the President is difficult to estimate accurately...

...Cynics suggest that a soldier simply dropped a grenade accidentally and there was no assassination attempt at all...

...dollar, officially worth 44 rupiahs, now brings 350 on the black market in Jakarta...

...The 410-mile road project in Borneo is similarly slow-going...

...The Indonesians have promised to send thousands of teachers, agricultural experts, public health officers, nurses and midwives to Irian Barat once it is theirs...

...In late December, Prime Minister K. Djuanda forecast a bleak new year for the economy and urged a sharp cutback in Government spending...

...Foreign correspondents who mentioned this point in stories were publicly accused of plotting against national unity...

...Sukarno, eminently fit to be the leader of a revolution, is unsuited for the role of organizer...

...Though much is heard of the need for national unity, the appeal is couched in terms of the liberation of Irian Barat, not national progress...

...From Japan has come the largest single chunk— $623 million in war reparations...

...My most vivid memory of the trip is of a frantic ride in pursuit of a general while students, assembled to cheer the visitors, shouted Merdeka ("freedom") and happily jabbed sticks through car windows as a gesture of friendship...

...At present, two Dutchmen and four Indonesians are said to be in jail in connection with the plot, but their names have not been released...

...Foreign trade as a whole fell off sharply last year...

...The President's unhappiness about the lack of air support for the Aru convoy is also said to have played a part in Suryadarma's ouster...

...Nevertheless, the early January attempt to assassinate Sukarno with a grenade at Makassar was almost certainly Dami Islam inspired, Jakarta's heated denials notwithstanding...

...This was denied in Jakarta, of course, but the presence of Sudarso tends to support the Dutch claim...

...So far, only about 40 per cent of the total has actually been spent...

...Headquarters for Operation Mandala (code name for the West Irian enterprise) was set up in Makassar only in January...

...With a solid record of accomplishment as well as unparalleled (for Indonesia) organizational ability, the PKI is keeping itself in the background these days...

...An initial survey is 90 per cent finished, 75 of an eventual 150 Soviet technicians have arrived, but construction has not yet begun...

...Indonesia has most of the weapons and planes necessary for launching an invasion, but the difficulties involved in bringing this power to bear on West Irian are enormous...

...Despite all the bellicose activity, in fact, Indonesia now seems neither ready nor willing to go to war over West Irian...

...Copra production is insignificant...

...More than 40 opposition leaders were jailed, including former Prime Minister Sutan Sjahrir, Chairman of the Indonesian Socialist party (PSI), and three former foreign ministers, among them Masjumi party leader Mohammed Roem...

...Four submarines arrived from the Soviet Union in January, bringing the total to no less than six...

...Most high officials realize the need for both rapid action to increase exports and for austerity in spending...

...he gained some amphibious experience in a 1950 landing against the Aziz rebel forces in Makassar...

...General Nasution is well aware of the difficulties involved in an amphibious invasion of West Irian, and his plans for it are proceeding slowly and deliberately...

...Yet, because Soviet land-clearing equipment proved unsatisfactory, $2 million worth of equipment had to be purchased in the U.S...

...Marching civilians and soldiers throng the streets, secret conferences follow emergency Cabinet sessions, newspapers detail new Dutch outrages, and shortages are abundant...

...The construction, including a huge 100,000-seat stadium, is seen by thousands of Indonesians daily and its propaganda value is great...

...External debt is now about $800 million, compared to $200 million at the end of 1960...

...Reporters expected the Army-organized trip to be nothing more than a carefully staged display of aggressive-looking troops, fancy new weapons and general elan over West Irian...

...Three Indonesian motor torpedo boats were intercepted by Dutch air and naval units...

...In the Bandung area of West Java and in the northern Celebes the fanatic Darul Islam guerrillas are still active, although lately on a sharply reduced scale...

...Grenade-dropping enlisted men may suggest a somewhat casual approach to things military...

...rice, sugar, corn, clothing and cooking oil are increasingly hard to find...

...Twelve of the 15 foreign reporters on hand missed the first press conference because they had been told it was postponed two hours...

...The economy, normally on the brink of catastrophe, seems now to have slipped halfway over the edge...

...Until that afternoon, it seemed quite possible that war, could begin...

...More progress has been made on the $100 million credit of 1956, now 75 per cent allotted...

...There are rich deposits of nickel and cobalt, surveyed but so far almost unexploited...

...Mohammed Hatta, former prime minister and vice president, wrote Sukarno in January urging moderation on West Irian...

...On the large steel plant planned for Merak, West Java, site preparation is under way and a construction contract is being negotiated...

...The price of the second-grade rice eaten by most Indonesians has tripled within the last five months...

...Under these conditions, an armed adventure to obtain a virtually worthless West Irian seems folly at best...

...Food is in short supply...

...Some time this year it will take delivery on a Russianbuilt, Sverdlovsk-class cruiser of 15,450 tons displacement...

...Report From Indonesia 'Merdeka' on the Rocks By Robert McCabe Jakarta Cued by the blustery belligerence of President Sukarno, this city is trying its best to resemble a capital on the verge of war...

...But behind the facade, the country's economy is on the verge of collapse...

...The Army remains the strongest moderating force on Sukarno...

...Without the foreign economic assistance which flows into Jakarta in huge annual quantities, Indonesia would be in even more serious trouble...

...Though a construction contract is being negotiated, a sudden discovery that the necessary phosphate is lacking has sent Soviet geologists hurrying off to scout for more...

...This is largely due to a drought which delayed fall rice planting and necessitated the spending of much-needed foreign exchange for 700,000 tons of rice from Burma and Thailand, which insist on payment in hard currency...

...Robert McCabe, a freelance writer, reports regularly on political developments in the Far East...

...With its present skimpy stock of landing craft, this country would be hard put to move a large force across New York's Central Park reservoir, much less across the 110 miles of ocean between West Irian and Kai Besar, the nearest likely staging point...

...It is likely, too, that there are certain important shortcomings in the impressive military posture...

...The possibility of war has led not only to hoarding and profiteering but has diverted thought, energy and funds from the pressing economic problems which gain dimension day by day...

...Now in operation are at least four (and perhaps eight) destroyers, 14 motor torpedo boats and about 30 assorted gunboats, patrol vessels and subchasers...

...Made of fibre-glass, these vessels can transport 30 fully equipped soldiers for short distances...

...Under a 1959 credit, the Russians offered $12.5 million for the necessary stadiums and buildings...

...has supplied $538 million in credits, technical assistance, grants and the like...

...Logically, the full agenda, together with current military logistical problems, would seem to indicate armed action against West Irian must be put off until the fall...

...The Navy is also in the midst of a build-up...

...The Russians have run into trouble in recent months, however...

...Although negotiations with foreign oil and rubber firms have gone on for more than a year, nothing has been done to assure these companies that they will be able to continue to profit in helping Indonesia to develop its oil and rubber resources...

...Europeans find themselves spellbound though they cannot understand a word...

...Suryadarma is now a "personal adviser" to Sukarno, without command authority...

...But so far there has been little effective remedial action...

...But the Navy is believed to possess only eight LST landing craft, and herein lies Indonesia's problem...