China's Ancien Regime
WALKER, RICHARD L.
WILL THE NEW GENERATION BE DIFFERENT? China's Ancien Regime By Richard L. Walker As Peking celebrates the 13th anniversary of the Communist takeover in China, it is becoming increasingly...
...In any event, with or without Mao, one thing is certain: After almost a decade and a half of totalitarian rule under Marxism, during which more than half of the present population was either born or came to intellectual maturity, China can no longer be thought of in terms which were meaningful in the past...
...Writing in the New York Times of May 27, Tillman Durdin said: "Mao Tse-tung is known to be in failing health with his mental powers faltering...
...Barring a cataclysmic war, mainland China is now an industrial power to be reckoned with on the world scene...
...This, combined with his diminishing mental vigor and intellectual and physical isolation from the outside world, makes him increasingly incapable of balanced judgment...
...Opportunists within the Party, who are preparing future positions, will probably incite intra-Party fights in terms of who supports Mao in most loyal fashion, and this in itself limits any prospective basic changes in policies...
...Such problems are likely to be as great for Communist allies as for democratic enemies...
...The 10th anniversary of Mao Tse-tung's regime, on October 1, 1959, probably marked the peak of fervor and energy...
...The clock cannot be turned back on such developments...
...Proportionately only half as many have benefited from education abroad, and most have confined their activities to Party work and military command...
...Nor is it likely that Mao Tse-tung's death will improve matters...
...A leadership which quickly established control over one-fourth of the earth's population and built mainland China into a formidable force in world politics has been faltering and marking time...
...Much of the current ideological dialogue with the Soviet Union reflects an old man clinging tenaciously to "verities" uttered decades ago...
...On one occasion he was so rambling and incoherent that the interpreters were embarrassed...
...Nevertheless, Mao continues to be the absolute ruler of China, and he apparently still offers powerful displays of temper...
...It is most significantly symbolized in the person of the 69-year-old Mao Tse-tung himself...
...The National People's Congress which met in March and April of this year failed to come up with any concrete proposals for solving the present agrarian dilemma...
...There he has received and chatted briefly with visiting dignitaries...
...Richard L. Walker, a long-time contributor to The New Leader, is head of the Department of International Studies at the University of South Carolina...
...Still, as long as Mao lives, there is little chance of Chinese policy becoming reckless: Mao has practised caution in any given situation unless victory is assured...
...But in view of the very serious Chinese ambitions and manifold activities around the world, it is essential to avoid fixed images...
...Peking's relations with India, its open quarrel with Moscow and its backing of recalcitrant Albaniathough all reflect policies which might be viewed as promoting Chinese national interest-reveal a frozen and relatively unimaginative attitude for which the Communist leaders have not been noted in the past...
...In fact, the semi-paralysis in Communist leadership seems partially due to the growing incapacity of Mao himself...
...He began to spend much of his time in the quiet and beautiful city of Hangchow...
...Whether pro-Mao or anti-Mao, pro-Communist or anti-Communist, a vast new bureaucracy now exists, much of which has a vested interest in a perpetuation of the changes the Communist regime has brought...
...According to A recent study of the top Chinese leadership by Donald W. Klein, however, there is little comfort to be drawn from the impending replacement of many members of the Politburo...
...Members of Communist parties from the West first learned of Mao's declining mental vigor in Moscow in 1957...
...Shortly after Mao's return to Peking, apparently to quash resultant rumors of his infirmity, the Chinese press began publishing a series of articles about his physical prowess and reports on the "beloved Chairman's" robust health...
...that the American people are against their own Government...
...Much will also depend upon the manner in which Mao himself departs, for he has been elevated into a unique position as the sole source of wisdom and direction for the Chinese Communist state...
...They attribute success to their dedicated Marxism, Mao's leadership, the efficacy of revolutionary violence and war, mass mobilization and discipline...
...These are the formulas they regard as eternal truths and which they may be expected to make the basis for future actions...
...On seven occasions he received visitors briefly and on five he attended formal ceremonies such as the opening and closing of the National People's Congress...
...The Chinese Communists may prove increasingly proud and arrogant in their interpretations of Marxism and increasingly divorced from the realities of the changing world around them...
...Internal policies and discipline have been allowed to drift and weaken in the face of growing domestic problems...
...The aging leadership in mainland China and the growing infirmities of Mao Tse-tung himself will present many problems for those who must deal with this growing center of world power...
...At that time, although some of the consequences of the Great Leap Forward of 1958 were already clear, China's first-generation Communist leaders still exuded confidence and an obvious satisfaction...
...Since then, however, there has been a steady weakening of leadership, morale, economy and practically every other aspect of life in a state which only a few years ago was the most tightly controlled dictatorship in the world...
...He may no longer be capable of the prolonged concentration which once made him one of the leading thinkers and spokesmen for world Communism, but he clings stubbornly to those theories which he has elaborated in the past...
...Peking's 19-member Politburo now averages almost 64 years of age, and the old Communists may well have spent their energy...
...The fact that the Congress met in secrecy and, contrary to the Constitution, had not convened for two years also reflected the absence of assurance and of a self-confident directing hand...
...Yet, given China's past authoritarian traditions and their development under Mao, it would be wishful thinking to expect that in the near future the clock may be turned forward into the modern world and away from despotism...
...Since he came to occupy the "dragon throne" in 1949, he has been so worshipped and idolized that every action and every policy in mainland China has been justified by reference to his scriptures...
...Incidentally, the same is true of the Nationalist Chinese across the Taiwan Strait...
...He is reported to have inspired the reprinting of many of his former works (with the appropriate "Operation rewrite" to maintain his infallibility...
...The firm hand of former years is missing...
...The Chinese leader also suffers from an illness which has accompanied "culted" leaders in the past...
...They represent a far less intellectual Party tradition than does the present leadership...
...China's Ancien Regime By Richard L. Walker As Peking celebrates the 13th anniversary of the Communist takeover in China, it is becoming increasingly apparent that there has been growing uncertainty at the top levels of the regime...
...Past positions and attitudes can be expected to remain frozen...
...Mao's most recent appearance, of course, was made last week when he reviewed a parade in Peking's Tienanmen Square during the ceremonies marking the establishment of the People's Republic of China...
...China's "New Class" is composed of men who have watched a steady accumulation of power and success since a low point in Party fortunes over a quarter of a century ago...
...In the spring of 1961, anti-Mao and antiCommunist posters appeared in major Chinese cities, a phenomenon undreamed of a few years before...
...The author of China Under Communism and The Continuing Struggle: Communist China and the Free World, his articles and reviews have appeared in many journals...
...Mao and his colleagues may become more and more wedded to the view that the United States is a "paper tiger...
...Indications of the recent deterioration and tired bewilderment among the top leadership in China are abundant...
...The Yugoslav Communists accuse him directly and the Soviets indirectly of being incapable and unwilling to understand the facts of the thermonuclear age...
...There are some who still insist on seeing Communist China as an unchanging monolith...
...The gradual withdrawal from the communes, which some have interpreted as a sign of flexibility, has been more a groping retreat than a well-directed operation...
...Only a few months later the world was informed that Mao was stepping down from his position as Chairman of the formal State structure...
...This is especially true in view of the current serious difficulties in Mao's domain and China's impending entrance into the nuclear club...
...On the other hand, in Mao's final days we may also expect further intensification of those attitudes and viewpoints which have made Communist China such a troublesome force in world affairs...
...Following a period of "collective leadership" and an intense power struggle, his successor will have to demonstrate real vigor and an ability to deal with such pressing problems as feeding the hungry hundreds of millions...
...The middle-ranking members of the Party's Central Committee, who are about 10 years younger than the present Politburo membership, have had little practical foreign experience...
...Either that, or he will have to find some occasion for leadership and national solidarity which will relegate such problems to the backgroundpossibly a military adventure...
...Whether the world can live at peace with the new center of world power in Peking may indeed depend upon the changes that are now taking place there, as a tired group of old men pass from the scene...
...The cement and unity provided by long years of common struggle and by the inspiration of Mao himself should not be underestimated...
...And many of China's current problems and policies reflect the uncertainty, the tentative preparation, and the internal consolidation of political positions on the part of those who are waiting for the old man to die...
...As Mao's condition worsens, too, the policies of the Chinese Communists are likely to reflect his illness...
...These writings belong to the pre-atomic missile past and, like the Hunanese peasant himself, are divorced from the realities of the world of the 1960s...
...He is swept up in his own grandeur and belief in his infallibility...
...But of late there have been no new scriptures from the "heroic and great leader," although he retired from his active Government position in April 1959, ostensibly to devote himself to his Party tasks and to theoretical work...
...In the past three years, the Chairman has not made a single significant statement nor published a single work of any importance...
...Possibly they have little more than enough left to cling to current positions of power in the face of a newly rising and ambitious middle-level group of Communist aspirants...
...that there are growing contradictions among the "imperialists" (the United States and its allies...
...Mao has been a dramatic figure and brilliant theorist and leader for Communism in China...
...These examples (and many more could be cited) reveal the general stagnation which has settled over the top leadership in the world's most populous Communist state...
...For three years there have been no major doctrinal pronouncements from Peking...
...The current decline of the old Chinese leaders is mirrored, too, in the almost weekly reports of the death of some high-ranking official...
...Refugees have stated that these were actually interminable and disjointed ramblings, and this seems to be borne out by the fact that none of the discourses has appeared in print...
...By 1961, Mao's appearances were less and less frequent...
...By September 1958 some papers even claimed that he had been able to swim across the Yangtze River seven times...
...None of these represented any great effort on Mao's part...
...In place of the vigor, imagination, discipline and revolutionary ?©lan which enabled China's old Communists to move through many past crises, there has been a hardening and torpor...
...As long as Mao survives, his image, the memories of his deeds, his theoretical pronouncements, and the vested interest in unity and loyalty that has been built around his cult, are also likely to persist...
...Thus we can anticipate a continued stubborn determination to "liberate" Taiwan, a sustained antiAmerican drive, and continued support for guerrilla operations around China's borders...
...Even in its ideological differences with the Soviet Union, Communist China has been unable to come up with the kind of fresh interpretation it developed only six years ago in dealing with de-Stalinization...
...From January 1 to May 1, 1962, there are only 12 instances of Mao's activities featured in the Chinese Communist press...
...He continued, however, to summon meetings of high ranking officials at which he was reported to have uttered profound interpretations of Marxism-Leninism...
...and that demonstrations of military force, particularly when they involve great numbers, will bring further concessions and contribute to the eventual victory of the "camp of Socialism and democracy...
...Since the abysmal failure of the "people's communes," there have been no great drives or innovations such as once spurred Mao's subjects forward at a reckless pace: In previous years, the top leadership was always able to come up with some new slogan or policy to cover up its failures...
Vol. 45 • October 1962 • No. 21
