Challenge to Macmillan

...Let us hope that there is a statesman somewhere who, like Ernest Bevin then, has the wisdom to recognize and seize it...

...But can he do so no matter what the terms...

...Otherwise, he is likely to lose his place as leader of the Government before the new year begins...

...Canada, Australia and New Zealand fear that Europe will not begin to take their wheat, meat and dairy products until its own highcost producers have unloaded their surpluses-and France aims at steadily increasing its present agricultural surpluses until it is the granary of Europe...

...While Britain has now agreed to accept the agricultural system of the Common Market by taxing Commonwealth food imports, the only compensation offered is a vague promise that the EEC will adopt a "reasonable price policy...

...This is all the more reason for pressing on faster with the discussion of those global economic problems which must be solved whether or not Britain joins the Common Market...

...It is inconceivable that any British Government could take such a historic decision as to join the European Community in the face of opposition from a party which is known to have more popular support-particularly when the decision can only be implemented by the passage of much complicated legislation through Parliament, where it could be blocked at every stage...

...the zero tariff on tea has already been offset by big excise duties in both Germany and France...

...With the possible exception of Sierra Leone, none of the African Commonwealth countries is prepared to associate itself with the Common Market...

...All that the Labor party is asking is that the negotiations in Brussels should continue until the Commonwealth has been guaranteed outlets comparable to those which it will lose by Britain's entry into the Common Market...

...For it is clear that unless the Common Market countries are prepared to offer better terms to the outside world the enlarged European Community will be a rich men's club which is bound to widen the economic gulf already separating Europe from Africa and Asia...

...By amending President Kennedy's new trade bill so that it is no longer in any way dependent on Britain's entry into Europe, the United States Senate has offered Europe and the Commonwealth an opportunity as great as that presented by General George Catlin Marshall's famous speech at Harvard 15 years ago...

...Though their opposition to association has always been known, the British Government now threatens to give the French territories a preference against them unless they give in...

...Thus, whatever impression he may try to create, Macmillan will have to try to improve the terms for the Commonwealth if he is to take Britain into Europe...

...Interestingly, Malaya is unaffected whatever happens, since its basic exports of rubber and tin have a zero tariff in Europe, while Trinidad and Cyprus would like to join the Common Market regardless of what Britain does...

...The Commonwealth countries had no difficulty in showing that, thus far at least, the evidence is most discouraging...

...But even if the Tories preserve their traditional discipline, it would still not be possible for the Prime Minister to get Britain into the Common Market without at least the consent of the Labor party, which in current opinion polls leads the Conservatives by nine per cent, and whose leader, Hugh Gaitskell, has said that the present terms are unacceptable...

...Though inevitably the issue was argued in terms of damage to specific national interests, it is quite unfair to present the Conference as a conflict between a British Government with its eyes set on a great historical ideal and a gang of selfish Commonwealth countries concerned only with niggling commercial details...

...The answer now depends on President de Gaulle and the British people...

...The cost to French ambitions in Europe may be high if he persists in keeping Britain out, but he may judge that cost to be smaller than what he will have to pay if he lets Britain in...

...Despite the opposition to Konrad Adenauer in Bonn, de Gaulle's recent triumphal tour of the Federal Republic has probably strengthened his hold on German policy...

...For whether Britain's entry into the Common Market is a step forward in international affairs depends essentially on the attitude of the enlarged European Economic Community (EEC) to the rest of the world...

...This, after all, is what Macmillan originally promised...

...Alternatively, if in some fields comparable outlets can only be guaranteed through world-wide agreements, existing Commonwealth preferences should continue until these agreements are reached...

...Nor would the Six themselves be enthusiastic to admit a country which had been forced to join them against its will...

...Moreover, he has made it clear that he is not prepared to reopen discussion on any of the agreements already reachedthough he had previously described them as "provisional" As the Prime Minister of Jamaica, Sir Alexander Bustamente, put it: "He is hell-bent to get into the Common Market...

...India and Pakistan face a tariff against their manufactured goods throughout Europe, with nothing to offset it other than the pledge that if the present level of their exports falls, the Common Market will arrange unspecified trade agreements with them by the end of 1966...

...Although Macmillan still denies that such a choice is necessary, his conduct during and since the Conference shows that in fact he has already chosen Europe...

...Italy and the Low Countries may threaten him with non-cooperation if he persists in blocking Britain's entry, but they are not likely to wreck the Common Market over it, and he will take no notice of their remonstrances so long as he can keep West Germany on his side...

...Since the world market for their primary products is near saturation point, this increase can only come about through rising exports of manufactured goods...

...The only Prime Ministers who declared themselves satisfied with the existing terms for Britain's entry into the Common Market were those from Malaya, Cyprus and Trinidad, together representing one per cent of the Commonwealth's overseas population...

...His own party may refuse to allow him to break his promise to satisfy the vital interests of the Commonwealth...

...Yet the development plans of both these countries depend on raising their export earnings 10 per cent annually for the next 10 years...

...This is likely to impose political strains which the Commonwealth could not survive...

...In Britain Macmillan faces equally serious obstacles...

...Harold Macmillan's plaintive comment on the Commonwealth Prime Ministers' Conference underlines the isolation in which he found himself-an isolation even more complete than that at Suez...

...It is probable that de Gaulle still wants to keep Britain out whatever the terms, for he sees it both as a rival to his own country's leadership in Europe and as an agent of the United States...

...What was most striking about the Prime Ministers' Conference was that, though the British Government made great efforts to split up the Commonwealth front, India remained united with Pakistan throughout, as did Nigeria and Tanganyika with Ghana...

...Unless the Six make such concessions, Labor will oppose Britain's entry and demand a general election...

...So the West must contemplate the possibility that the Brussels talks will not quickly reach a conclusion...

...Indeed, Britain now seems to face a choice between Europe and the Commonwealth...

...His television account of the terms already reached with the Common Market as "wonderful, just wonderful" was in flat contradiction of the communique he had signed the day before...

...Unlike the exFrench colonies, they believe that such association will inevitably involve political strings, as in fact it has with the former...

...The real problem, as always, is Charles de Gaulle...