The Tshombe Riddle

...As things now stand, the Union Mini??re, rather than controlling the Katanga President, is clearly his prisoner...

...In short, for Portugal a reconciliation between Katanga and the Central Government would be close to catastrophic...

...If, for instance, the Katanganese army is really integrated into the national Army, Tshombe will always be in danger of being indicted by a Federal court for having a hand in the death of Patrice Lumumba...

...2) He has been unable to control or conquer the northern portion of Katanga, which from the very first has consistently opposed his government...

...Herbert F. Weiss, of the Center for International Studies at MIT, recently spent a year in the Congo...

...Unless the Katanga situation is resolved, Africans and Asians are likely to remember that, when the chips were down, one or another Western power blocked the final push to unity...

...It would be a mistake, though, to assume that Moise Tshombe is simply a tool of foreign interests...

...Tshombe, however, is supported by substantial elements of the Western world and international mining interests...

...It is hardly likely, for example, that Welensky would agree to closing the frontiers between Katanga and Northern Rhodesia, or that he would refuse to transport Katanga's exports...

...As Tshombe's strength continues to grow, any advantages that might accrue from his rejoining the Congo grow correspondingly smaller...

...Since it is no longer a secret that several Western powers are absolutely opposed to military hostilities, Tshombe may well calculate that the UN is bluffing or, if hostilities should start, would lose its support in a repeat performance of December 1961...

...And whatever the financial arrangements agreed upon, there would be little to prevent the Central Government from taking over an increasing share of Katanga's wealth once Tshombe's army is no longer in a position to defend him...

...Although sporadic fighting still occurs, the major battles appear to be over...

...Nothing shows Tshombe's political weakness better than the election results just prior to independence...

...Yet, despite ample geographic opportunity, they have not attempted any rebellious activity largely because Tshombe has turned Angolan escapees over to Portuguese authorities...

...His representatives in Parliament have been actively engaged in establishing political allies in Leopoldville who could be useful should he rejoin the Congo...

...In return, Tshombe has used his influence in Northern Rhodesia to back Harry Nkumbula, Kaunda's more "moderate" opponent...

...Until now two factors have encouraged Tshombe to refuse to end his Province's secession: 1) foreign interests have supported him, and 2) he has found it advantageous in terms of his own position in internal Congolese politics...

...To South Africa this means that the advance of African nationalism and the movement for racial equality is kept that much farther from its own borders...

...As the leader of underpopulated but immensely rich Katanga, Tshombe could never hope to obtain political power commensurate to his Province's wealth within a unitary or even a federal Congo...

...A rapid switch in his relations with African nationalists in the south would cost him little, and would greatly help him establish a new image for himself among other African leaders...

...It is no secret that the Macmillan Government has been reluctant to accept sterner UN measures against Tshombe because of pressure exerted in Parliament and even in the Cabinet by commercial interests with major investments in the Union Mini??re and Northern Rhodesia...

...And unlike Adoula, who has cooperated closely with the UN and has been a good friend to the U.S., his successor may ask the UN to withdraw from the Congo...

...The UN has now returned some 70,000 of these refugees to their villages, far from Tshombe's domain...

...has been the most determined Western advocate of Congo unity, it would probably bear much of the blame for continued Katanga secession...

...There is little doubt that such measures would accomplish the desired result...

...With the Central Government temporarily incapable of doing anything about it, Tshombe obtained the protection of the Belgian Army and proceeded both to expel the mutinous Congolese troops from Katanga and imprison the local opposition...

...According to present plans, if the Katanga President does not accept the UN timetable economic sanctions would be initiated...

...This has surely been one of the UN's greatest humanitarian accomplishments in the Congo, yet it has also served to rid south Katanga of the remaining hard core of opposition to Tshombe...

...Can the UN in fact successfully exert such pressures...

...CASE HISTORY OF A SECESSIONIST The Tshombe Riddle By Herbert F Weiss Moise Tshombe's acceptance of the latest United Nations plan for Congo reunification once again raises the hope that the Katanga crisis is approaching an end...

...The south Katangans always viewed these jobs with envy...

...But only time will tell whether Tshombe is now really willing to bow to UN pressures...

...Despite the Army mutiny, it was said that the attack from Stanleyville had a good chance of succeeding...

...If the Angolan revolution were to extend along the entire border with the Congo, the Portuguese forces would probably be unable to contain it...

...By and large, then, it is very questionable whether Katanga's financial and commercial relations can be "barred" in this fashion...

...After all, from their point of view continued secession is vital and its end doubly undesirable because Tshombe's return to a united Congo would also signal a return to the more general temper of African nationalism...

...The Katanga President's position has been further improved by the return of his own Conakat members to the Parliament in Leopoldville...

...Especially after the breakdown of transportation facilities between his Province and Leopoldville, Tshombe has every reason to support Portugal...

...Two other important ethnic groups, the Tshokwe and the Lunda, live on the Katanga-Angola border...

...It should be recognized, too, that as pressures for reunification grow some of Katanga's foreign backers may well increase support...

...During the two years since secession, nevertheless, Tshombe's power has grown...

...It was after this that Tshombe built up his own army, aided by European and white South African mercenaries, and this soon became one of the most serious military forces in the Congo...

...For as long as Tshombe does not rejoin the Congo he will be dependent on the anti-nationalist forces which have given him such massive aid, and he can be counted upon not to back nationalist forces in the south...

...Most of the Belgian personnel are sympathetic to his goals and could be expected to continue operating the mines...

...Indeed, Union Mini??re has close ties with Rhodesian copper interests which, in turn, are connected with South African and United States metal companies...

...Since Tshombe had few allies at the national Congolese level, while his opponent, Jason Sendwe, had many, it was expected that the Central Government would intervene and either hold new elections or reshuffle the Provincial government in a manner unfavorable to Tshombe...

...The first foreign interests to support Katanga's secession in the summer of 1960 were, of course, the Belgian Army and the Union Mini??re mining company...

...But, judging from past experience, excessive optimism would be unwise...

...Even without these internal pressures, however, Britain's position would still be a difficult one...

...Actually, they are no longer in a position to change the basic power balance...

...When the Congo Army mutinied, the opportune moment for secession arrived...

...The Baluba had been an elite labor force, holding some of the best jobs in the mining industry and in administrative offices...

...It is argued in some quarters that this could be done most easily through Belgian Government pressure on Union Mini??re: If the mining company could be made to cooperate with the UN, to stop its tax payments to Tshombe, and to channel all other financial transactions through the Central Government, the Katanga problem would be resolved...

...Neither Portugal nor the Rhodesias, as we have seen, have any reason to close their railroads to Katanga exports...

...Before long, however, Katanga came to be seen as a kind of cordon sanitaire between the independent, nationalist African states north of the Congo and the colonial and settler states to the south...

...That, too, is a prospect the British would clearly prefer to avoid...

...But Belgium, and in a sense also the Union Mini??re, have become the whipping boys of the Katanga problem...

...If Britain were to go along with any of the really tough UN pressures, it would probably only be embarrassed by its inability to enforce them...

...South Africa also has a vital interest in Portugal's continued presence in Angola...

...If that happens, the Leftists can be expected to re-emerge...

...Having survived these threatening moments in the summer and early fall of 1960, Tshombe has failed in only two aspects of his effort to solidify his own power and Katanga's secession: 1) He has not been able to get recognition from a single power for his Province's independence...

...Why should the buyers of Katanga copper boycott it, even if "UN politics" forces the Belgian Government to prevent the Union Mini??re from dealing directly with Tshombe...

...But such involvement on the part of South Africa outside its own borders would open the way for claims that the Angolan conflict is a danger to world peace...

...Perhaps no country is more directly concerned with keeping Tshombe's secessionist venture alive than Portugal...

...Once again the Central Government would attempt to conquer Katanga, and be forced to seek help from "anyone" willing to supply it...

...The collapse of the Portuguese position would give African nationalism its first boundary with a South African possession-the much-disputed mandate territory of South West Africa...

...Both these ends are served by preaching moderation and negotiations in Katanga...

...But if the secession is truly to be ended, UN pressures must not only be commensurate to the backing Tshombe is receiving, as well as to the internal exigencies pushing him to maintain his secession...

...Although the Conakat won a majority of two seats over the opposing Balubakat in the Provincial Assembly, it obtained a substantially lower number of popular votes...

...They must also be put into effect and stringently maintained if it appears that he is either reneging or simply playing for time...

...Without an end to the present crisis, the Adoula Government can be expected to fall...

...With his newly developed power, Tshombe's government has also intimidated those elements of south Katanga's population opposing his party, most of whom were "immigrants" from Kasai Province brought to the urban centers as laborers during the colonial period...

...To add to the irony, Conakat members have allied themselves with Premier Cyrille Adoula's Leftwing opposition, supporters of imprisoned former Vice President Antoine Gizenga, in strenuous attempts to overthrow the present Government...

...It is one of the ironies of the Congo situation that, while Katanga has declared itself independent and has in the past refused every compromise for effective reunification, Tshombe's party has for the past year actively participated in the Congolese Parliament...

...On numerous occasions Sir Roy has shown that he does not feel himself very greatly bound by London's decisions...

...Being an intelligent politician, Tshombe responds to the forces around him...

...And the legality of the process by which Tshombe had been elected President of the Provincial government was widely disputed...

...In addition to financial subsidies, Tshombe is reported to have provided military training for Nkumbula's supporters in Katanga...

...Furthermore, if the UN intervenes energetically and successfully to unify the Congo, the likelihood is that the majority of the General Assembly would press for similar action in other African trouble spots-e.g., the Rhodesias...

...But at that moment President Joseph Kasavubu dismissed Lumumba, and in the ensuing political confusion the troops moving from Stanleyville, upon being paid their back salaries courtesy of the UN, agreed to return to their bases...

...The independence of the Congo in June 1960 was a crucial event for the Angolan nationalist movement, and this naturally made it crucial for Portugal-fighting for its entire colonial empire in Angola...

...Such a conclusion to the largely Western dominated UN efforts in the Congo would be disastrous for the world organization, as well as for the U.S...

...And even though the U.S...

...Still, at this juncture his position was far from strong...

...His own economic and political selfinterests are also involved, and to understand this aspect of the Katanga secession it is necessary to examine Tshombe's career from the time the Congo first achieved independence...

...In the last resort, these would go "to the extent of barring all trade and financial relations...

...Here the military training Kaunda's opponents are getting in Katanga is an ominous development...

...Since the Verwoerd Government has no allies in the UN, the probable result would be the one thing that South Africa wants most to avoid-UN intervention...

...In fact, almost immediately after Congolese independence one of the most important ethnic groups in Angola, the Bakongo, who straddle the border between the two countries, began a revolution that has successfully used the frontier to evacuate civilian refugees from Salazar's repressive measures and to refurbish its military contingents...

...Certainly his participation in a united Congo would today afford him considerably more autonomy and power than two years ago...

...At the same time, Portugal has every reason to support Tshombe...

...There are other elements in the Welensky-Tshombe bargain, too: Welensky currently controls one of Katanga's export routes...

...The last but perhaps most important force behind Tshombe is the Republic of South Africa...

...He also has given Tshombe invaluable aid in his two fights with the UN...

...Would even the United States maintain such a policy for any length of time when 90 per cent of its total cobalt imports come from Katanga...

...Should the Union Mini??re personnel oppose Tshombe, they would only become his hostages and could be replaced by Rhodesians or South Africans...

...All this does not mean, however, that the present apparent change in Tshombe's position should not be taken seriously...

...In any event, certainly much more is at stake in Katanga's secession than the mere exploitation of mineral resources: In supporting Tshombe, his backers see the opportunity to slow down-if not altogether stop -the entire timetable of national and racial emancipation in Africa...

...In the attempt to subjugate the north, Katanganese army machine guns were pitted against the homemade weapons of the northern Baluba in an encounter that has cost the lives of roughly 50,000 Baluba...

...A similar situation exists in the case of the Rhodesias...

...When they recently came close to succeeding, Tshombe immediately pointed out to the world that he could not be expected to negotiate with Adoula because the Premier no longer had the confidence of Parliament...

...But the problem with applying this type of pressure is that it would be likely to result in another military engagement between UN and Katanga forces...

...While achieving unification in the Congo may be agonizingly complicated and costly, the alternative is worse...

...Similarly, transport would offer no problem...

...The UN could, of course, interfere with the mining and transportation of Katanga minerals: The mine sites could be occupied by UN troops acting in the name of the Central Government, and the railroads leading out of Katanga could be placed under UN control...

...The Katanga army has not only repelled attacks by General Mobutu from Kasai Province in the west and General Lundula from Oriental Province in the north, but has also managed to withstand two encounters with UN forces...

...But even with a new Federal constitution the risk would be great...

...True, the racial discrimination practiced in the Rhodesias has already resulted in embarrassing incidents between the Katanga government and the Rhodesian authorities...

...But the loss of the north, though a serious setback, does not basically alter Tshombe's strength, since Katanga's mineral wealth is centered in the south...

...Moreover, South Africa has a military pact with Portugal, and would probably intervene if the Portuguese forces prove unable to cope with the revolution in Angola...

...Hard pressed by the radical nationalism of Kenneth Kaunda in Northern Rhodesia and Hastings Banda in Nyasaland, Sir Roy Welensky, the Rhodesian Federation's Prime Minister, has staunchly supported Katanga's secession...

...Today both these factors are still very much in existence...

...When the UN refused to reintegrate Katanga by force, Patrice Lumumba, then Prime Minister of the Congo, launched a two-pronged military attack against the Province from Leopoldville and Stanleyville...

...In addition, this migration under UN auspices cannot help but raise Tshombe's prestige among the ethnic groups of south Katanga...

...But Tshombe can be expected to overlook the discriminatory treatment of Africans-which in the past has involved his own Lunda brethren and, on one or two occasions, even his own ministers-as long as he needs Welensky's backing...

...If the company were to refuse to deal directly with Tshombe, it would be no problem at all for him to seize its Katanga installations...

...In a sense, then, Tshombe has placed himself on both sides of the bargaining table...

...Therefore Britain is willing to pay a heavy price to reduce further friction with Welensky while slowing down the increasing radicalization of Rhodesian politics...

...In fact, his own party, the Conakat, gained only eight out of 137 seats in the Congolese Parliament...

...He has pursued this anti-nationalist policy, even when it has involved his own ethnic brethren, because most of Katanga's copper and other minerals are exported through Angola...

...Future UN intervention in Africa would become politically impossible...

...and a somewhat similar chain can be traced in the Rhodesias and extended to Portuguese Mozambique...

...In any case, the minerals would be mined...

...What can the UN do if Tshombe is once again only stalling for time...

...As to whether the minerals could be marketed, it is argued that the distributing organization would balk at selling "confiscated" goods...

...Although the Verwoerd Government has not yet been heavily involved in Katanga-to date the extent of its aid has been to supply Tshombe's army with mercenaries and equipment-it too has a vital stake in continued secession...

...Britain's position in the Katanga affair is closely tied to internal politics in the Rhodesias and to British commercial interests...

...It would be a major victory for British policy in the Rhodesias if the Federation could be brought to independence without bloodshed or anarchy...

...Thus, a chain of interest exists between Katanga, Angola and the Republic of South Africa...

...The tendency in Africa for central governments to extend their power is quite widespread, as has been demonstrated even in Nigeria...

...It clearly suits the latter's interests to keep it that way...

...Isolated and faced by Tshombe's terrorist tactics, most of them placed themselves under UN protection in what was known as Elisabethville's "Baluba refugee camp...

...Even more important, Tshombe's position within Katanga itself was by no means secure...

...It was this combination of economic and political factors, along with the traditional pressure from Belgian settlers, that was behind the Katanga leader's decision to secede...

...With the Baluba gone, they can be replaced by Tshombe's supporters...

...For it was the United States, acting unilaterally, which stopped the fighting between Katanga and UN forces in December 1961, at a time when it was generally recognized that one to four more days of military operations would have ended Moise Tshombe's secession...