Britain After Brussels

...Momentum has been lost to the extent that there is now no reason to expect an agreement this year...

...A great deal will depend on whether the United States decides to start a rescue operation analogous to that which Anthony Eden started after the French Assembly rejected the European Defense Community in 1954...

...And when Britain rejected the ultimatum, the French refusal to be bound by any of the agreements already made on Commonwealth agriculture caused bad blood among the other members of the Six...

...Nevertheless, it is very unlikely that the Prime Minister will be forced into a position which obliges him to break off negotiations altogether...

...The French have shown themselves fundamentally opposed to concessions on the major Commonwealth problems, not only because of de Gaulle's political objections to Britain's entry in principle, but also because most of the concessions involved would have hurt France more than any other member of the Common Market...

...Thus the deadlock in Brussels suits the Commonwealth Prime Ministers perfectly...

...Denis Healey, a regular contributor, is Labor party Spokesman for Commonwealthand Colonial Affairs...

...It is still possible, however, that developments in global politics will transform the European problem...

...Supporters of Britain's entry into the Common Market have said that Britain could not hope to attain precise agreements on such problems before entry...

...They are to start up again early next month, but there is no denying that their initial impetus has spent its force...

...But its final ultimatum to Britain on the operation of the agricultural levy system is recognized to have been the cause of the Brussels deadlock...

...But it can be assumed that France will not agree to any voting procedure which would enable its basic interests to be damaged...

...Countries already inside the Common Market are constrained by national interest as well as by the Rome Treaty to put their partners before any outsiders...

...Here the decisions of the Commonwealth Prime Ministers will be vital...

...On the other hand, any other member of the Common Market can frustrate France's plans for the Six...

...They feel that it must make the same act of faith in its partners' intentions as is involved in a marriage...

...had hoped that Britain's entry might take place on terms which would meet both these interests...

...Agreement with Russia on a nuclear test ban—which once again seems possible—would further exacerbate the conflict on atomic policy between the Anglo-Saxon powers and France...

...What is more, the politically vital question of horticultural policy remains untouched, and the National Farmers Union has already expressed opposition to what is currently known of the common agricultural policy...

...With all these issues outstanding, Macmillan would only weaken his bargaining position in Brussels by launching a propaganda campaign at home...

...For one thing, they will not be required to incur odium in Britain by outright opposition to an outline agreement to which Macmillan has already committed his Government...

...Italy or the smaller countries will probably not support the evident desire of Chancellor Adenauer and President de Gaulle to use the prolonged period of negotiations with Britain to tighten the Community still further...

...The time has now come to use them...

...The Trade Relations Bill has given him all the powers he needs to negotiate with Britain and the Common Market for liberal trade policies throughout the free world...

...Prime Minister Macmillan had hoped for an outline agreement covering all the major issues...

...IT remains to be seen how the Brussels deadlock will affect relations among the Six themselves...

...And they are equally interested in the world commodity agreements envisaged if Britain joins...

...In addition, however much Italy would like Britain inside the Community, it is not going to make London's exclusion a reason for breaking up the Common Market...

...America has a powerful economic interest in opening the Common Market up to more trade with the rest of the world as well as an equally powerful political interest in preventing its consolidation as an anti-Anglo-Saxon bloc...

...The decline of Adenauer's influence in Bonn makes anything possible...

...For another, they will be able to use the September Conference to inform British opinion of the issues which further negotiations must clarify if Commonwealth interests are to be met...

...Yet they have an obvious interest in guaranteeing their own access to the Common Market, whether Britain is in or not...

...Because these uncertain issues involve nearly all the major Commonwealth exports—except tea, for which the Common Market has agreed to a zero tariff, and manufactured goods from the white Commonwealth, on which Britain has already agreed to establish an antiCommonwealth preference by 1970 —the Prime Ministers' Conference may compel Britain to reopen a range of problems on which it hoped adequate agreement had already been reached...

...But he has not even obtained an outline on the Commonwealth, let alone on other matters, to present to the Commonwealth Prime Ministers when they meet in London on September 10...

...Now that this has not come about, President Kennedy can attain that interdependence of America and Europe of which he spoke so eloquently on July 4 only by directly committing the United States to a program for achieving it...

...More likely, there will be a slowing down of progress inside the Six while negotiations with Britain continue, and before long more and more voices will begin suggesting that perhaps Britain's needs can after all be better met by some form of association short of full membership...

...indeed, the talks could well drag on into 1964 without reaching a final conclusion one way or the other...

...Of late the French delegation, by insisting on adherence to the letter of the Rome Treaty, has conducted its opposition to Britain's entry with more finesse...

...All in all, it is likely to be an interesting autumn...

...But the recent course of negotiations simply does not justify such faith...

...But though Belgium and the Netherlands may regard France as the major obstacle to Britain's entry, Germany's determination to protect its farmers by pressing for high agricultural prices among the Six has also made agreement with Britain much more difficult...

...Such a project would make it appear that he has already decided Britain cannot afford not to join the Common Market, no matter what the terms...

...The Brussels negotiations, which amply demonstrated this fact, were a clear warning against Britain's hopes of reaching more satisfactory agreements for the Commonwealth once it is inside the Common Market...

...And the all-important question of voting procedure in the institutions of the enlarged community is still to be discussed...

...Moreover, since neither Parliament nor the Commonwealth Prime Ministers will be satisfied with the equivocal formulas so far agreed on in Brussels to cover the major Commonwealth interests, Macmillan will be compelled to spell out their meaning with a precision which will either create new resistance to Britain's entry among the Six or cost him essential support from British opinion...

...on Sunday morning, August 5, Britain's negotiations for joining the Common Market came to a temporary halt...

...There is no chance whatever that the other members of the European Free Trade Association will have reached agreement with the Common Market before the end of the year—though this is a condition of Britain's entry...

...By now many of them wish Britain had never applied for admission to the Common Market, and Macmillan's handling of the negotiations has undermined their faith in the continuation of existing Commonwealth preferences regardless of what happens...

...This would have enabled the Conservative party's Central Office to unleash a million-pound propaganda campaign in favor of joining the Common Market, and thus commit the party Conference before Parliament meets at the end of October...

...A heightening of the Berlin crisis, or a move toward a settlement, could either drive Germany closer to de Gaulle or closer to the Anglo-Saxons...

...The impact of the deadlock on British opinion is bound to stiffen the Government's bargaining position when negotiations are resumed...

...Whether French opposition could be overridden once Britain were in the Community would depend partly on the voting procedure...

...The U.S...

...Perhaps even the old idea of a Free Trade Area may be revived...