Nigeria: Slow Road to Trouble

...The result, after difficult negotiations, was an NPC-NCNC coalition with Balewa as Prime Minister...

...Its leader, an aristocratic radical named Malam Aminu Kano, brought his party into an electoral alliance with the NCNC...

...Foreign bases—open or disguised— and armies of occupation in foreign lands, never last...

...The NCNC has always been a rather loose and disparate coalition of various elements largely held together by Azikiwe's strong personality...

...Awolowo's statement last year urging that Nigeria join the Ghana-Guinea-Mali Union was the most striking evidence of this shift, particularly in the light of his past criticisms of Ghana...

...The recent crisis in the Western Region—which led to the declaration of an "emergency" by the Federal Parliament, the suspension of the regional Government and Legislature and their replacement by a Federal administrator, as well as travel restrictions on all of the Region's major political figures—pointed up how far Nigeria really is from stable, democratic government...

...Finally, two other significant developments have taken place since independence...

...Nevertheless, the Action Group's recent split has increased the chances of a NCNC-NPC single party...

...Second, since independence the split in Nigerian trade-union ranks has been accentuated...

...Events following independence, therefore, suggest that Nigeria's present "stability" is unlikely to last for long...

...Unlike its neighbors, however, Nigeria has neither the party nor the trade-union structure to contain and channel the inevitable discontent...

...Another indication of recent discontent within the NCNC is the participation of some of its younger intellectuals, including several members of the Eastern House of Assembly, in the Nigerian Socialist Group...

...At the same time, the opposition Action Group has been moving steadily to the Left, both in economic policy and in pan-Africanism, once the private preserve of the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens...

...And in November 1961, Awolowo introduced a bill in Parliament calling for the nationalization of basic industries, a further step in associating his party with more radical politics...

...Furthermore, the NPC would consider a merger of its two major rivals as a betrayal, and would rally support around the Northerners' fear of Southern domination of Nigeria...

...the "radical" NCNC and NEPU were tamed by their membership in the coalition...

...The position is not, however, without mitigation...

...The pre-independence Federal elections in December of that year moved Azikiwe and Awolowo to surrender their regional premierships and stand for the Federal Parliament...

...The North, with a majority of Nigeria's estimated population of 40-50 million, has a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives...

...Led by the Sardauna of Sokoto, the NPC was essentially devoted to maintaming much of the traditional power of the feudal Fulani emirates of the Northern Region...

...Clearly, Nigeria has not yet completed its nationalist revolution...

...This idea has actually been seriously discussed by some party members, though its difficulties are manifold...

...And a close look at the country's politics and geography reveals why...

...Soon after, 67 members of the Western Legislature petitioned the Governor demanding Akintola's dismissal...

...The fourth, smallest and originally most radical of these parties was the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), which represented the interests of the commoners in the North against the emirs...

...The Awolowo-Akintola split culminated on May 19 in a request by the AG executive that Akintola resign from both his party and Government posts...

...As part of the agreement, too, Azikiwe retired from active politics shortly after independence and was named Governor General of the Federation...

...But the Congo has served as a political education to Nigerian Army officers and soldiers...

...The overall picture is one of increasing urbanization and increasing urban unemployment, the classic pattern of an industrial reserve army...

...And the NCNC, whatever the real performance of its ministers, is held together by its radical platform...

...Yet its compromise formulas threaten the very survival of the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens and will probably lead to a quickening race for the pan-African bandwagon, with the NCNC and the Action Group vying for first position...

...and the Communist party of Nigeria, which was formed in the North and appears to be built around dissident NEPU elements...

...Aminu Kano, whose Northern Elements Progressive Union was still in strong opposition to the NPC in the Northern Region, accepted the post of Deputy Chief Whip of the Federal coalition...

...This 30-second incident was the excuse for the declaration of "emergency" by a Federal Parliament dominated by Awolowo's foes...

...The sympathies of the second—from whose ranks some of the Nigerian People's party leaders have come—are clearly with the Communist-sponsored World Federation of Trade Unions...

...True to his belief in Northern particularism, however, the Sardauna declined to do the same...

...Immanuel Wallerstein, an Assistant Professor of Sociology at Columbia University, is author of Africa: The Politics of Independence...

...many of its leaders are professionals, and most of them are NCNC members...

...Each of the parties accuses the others of using intimidation and electoral manipulation...

...the AG headed the opposition...

...The NPC would no doubt resist this change, for it would eventually mean the downfall of the emirs, and the various opposition elements, both inside and outside the Government, would then have increased importance...

...In October 1960, when it attained independence without bloodshed or even great struggle, there were four principal parties in Nigeria...

...The tone of the opposition today can be gathered from a recent statement by Awolowo against the Anglo-Nigerian Defense Pact: "Our infant nation has been disgraced, deceived and swindled out of its sovereignty...

...The AG's attitude on both economic and pan-African questions was originally somewhat more conservative than that of the NCNC...

...With his leadership withdrawn, there are signs that it may have difficulty keeping its young people in line...

...While highly improbable now, this possibility should not be ruled out...

...Ultimately, the urban unemployed may seek more explosive outlets...

...Many officers were openly critical of the Government's uncertain posture on Congo questions, which made their own position very uncomfortable...

...Its leadership seems to be drawn partly from trade-union ranks...

...A recent attempt to force a merger, however, was a fiasco, and the Nigerian labor movement, never really strong, will probably continue to play a minor role in the country's politics...

...Chike Obi, the irrepressible and highly individualistic mathematician who last year broke away once again from the NCNC because it had "betrayed" its radical program...

...The Youth Congress, which played an important part in the demonstrations against the AngloNigerian Military Pact and in the Lumumba riots in Lagos in early 1961, finds active support among Nigerian university students...

...But the younger members warn that if NCNC national policy continues to be dominated by the party's conservative business elements, it will face a serious internal crisis...

...Its strongest support was among the Ibo peoples of the Eastern Region...

...An early breakaway from the Azikiwe party was the Action Group (AG), headed by Chief Obafemi Awolowo...

...And since Akintola's new United People's party, as well as possibly a segment of the NCNC, would stay with the Northern People's Congress, the Northerners' Parliamentary majority would be restored...

...and the opposition was headed by "responsible" Chief Awolowo...

...What is more, unlike all other West African states, Nigeria seemed to have a well-functioning multi-party system...

...5. Lastly, there is some chance that the Army may take over, possibly in collaboration with Azikiwe...

...In addition, Britain's prospective entry into the Common Market does not promise to ease the situation for Nigeria...

...Curiously, the issue that might trigger a realignment of Nigerian political forces is a seemingly minor constitutional point: the establishment of Nigeria as a republic...

...Many say Azikiwe is a tired man who is happy to have finally received the honors he believes he merits, and content to remain Governor General...

...So it was in Egypt and elsewhere, and so it will be in Nigeria...

...It is not only the NEPU, though, which feels caught in a contradiction...

...Azikiwe was Premier of the Eastern Region, Awolowo of the West and the Sardauna of Sokoto of the North...

...In the December elections, the Northern People's Congress won most of the Northern seats, the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens most of the Eastern seats, and the Action Group most of the Western seats...

...Such a situation could well lead to civil war...

...Younger elements in the NCNC are increasingly uncomfortable about their leaders' participation in a Government whose domestic and foreign policies barely reflect the party's traditional positions...

...All of the new West African states have fragile economies...

...The Federal Government in Lagos was a national coalition of the three parties under Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, member of the NPC and deputy of the Sardauna...

...One is the emergence of a pair of extreme Left-wing groups: the Nigerian People's party, dedicated to social revolution and Marxist-Leninist ideology...

...At the very least, though, the fact that it has pursued this line indicates a belief in its potential popular appeal...

...The chances of an economic reversal are obviously great...

...Azikiwe was out of politics...

...The 1961 meeting of the National Union of Nigerian Students, which represents all students studying within the country, not only endorsed positions similar to those of the Young Congress but also, for the first time in its history, voted to affiliate with the International Union of Students (headquarters, Prague...

...The Nigerian People's party is still extremely small, but it represents a serious attempt at organizing a true Communist party—the first such attempt in West Africa, with the exception of the now-outlawed Senegalese Parti Africain de l'Indépendance...

...In addition, the small NEPU seems to be breaking up under the burden of having to fight oppression by the NPC Government in the North while adhering to an alliance with the NPC in Lagos...

...The Nigerian People's party is only semi-open, in the sense that its existence has been announced but not its officers...

...The Governor promptly acceded to the demand, declaring that Akintola had lost the confidence of the majority, and appointed in his place an Awolowo supporter, Alhaji D. S. Adegbenro...

...Though it seems to favor the United Labor Congress, the Government has been urging the two federations to become one...

...The returns of all regional and local elections held in the past two years show a clear trend toward the reinforcement of the three main parties, and a gradual elimination of opposition, in their respective regions...

...In January, Lagos officially abrogated the treaty...

...At the meeting of the Western House called to confirm the new Premier, Akintola's supporters started a riot, which was put down by police using tear gas...

...Whatever the truth, the regions are now in effect one-party states— rather similar to those in neighboring West African nations—leaving the multi-party system to function principally at the Federal level...

...2. An NCNC-AG merger is also conceivable, though quite remote...

...The outcome may be increasing political confusion, the growth of many splinter groups and the gradual decline of each party's control over its members...

...The third party was the Northern People's Congress (NPC...

...they are desperately trying to achieve rapid economic development and competing against each other for aid and trade...

...The differences between the two groups are minor and they may eventually merge...

...At the moment, neither the Dynamic party nor the Socialist Group nor even the Youth Congress present a serious threat to the NCNC...

...The first is a member of, and is financially supported by, the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions...

...Political restlessness is also evident in the popular response in the East to the Dynamic party of Dr...

...Many of Azikiwe's supporters have a different idea...

...They know that the constitutional role of the president in most other independent African states is extremely strong, and, at the very least, they are thinking of the French Fifth Republic as a model...

...3. Another possibility, really a variant on the second, is the reentry of Azikiwe into active politics, either at the head of a revitalized NCNC or leading a new Left coalition of NCNC, NEPU and AG elements, plus independents...

...Worth noting, too, is the fact that the West African Pilot, the NCNC's unofficial organ, regularly criticizes the NPC and even some NCNC members of the Government...

...The current Government coalition is probably the only feasible arrangement now...

...Nigeria's future is hazardous to predict, but there seem to be five major possibilities for political realignment in the next few years: 1. The NCNC and the Northern People's Congress may merge and put increasing pressure on the Action Group to create a one-party state...

...One such sign is the increasing activity of the Nigerian Youth Congress, a non-partisan political pressure group formed in late 1960...

...But its official position is one of nonaffiliation and support of the AllAfrican Trade Unions Federation...

...Critics of the AG sneer at its new-found opposition radicalism...

...They have invariably embittered nationalist feelings and have unfailingly come to an ignominious end...

...Chief Samuel Akintola, spokesman for its conservative wing and until May the party's deputy leader as well as Premier of the Western Region, actively opposed Awolowo's attempt to create a national Left opposition movement to the Government...

...In a merger, this platform would inevitably be watered down and the party's younger members might refuse to go along...

...At the moment, there are probably too many British officers in key positions for a coup to take place...

...What distinguishes West Africa from 19th century Britain is that industrialization is accompanied by a much faster rate of education...

...Very little ideological difference exists between the two parties today, but their joining forces would create only a bare majority in the Federal Parliament...

...J. S. Tarka, leader of the United Middle Belt Congress, a smaller Northern party allied to the AG, has made similar pronouncements...

...Nation-wide but largely urban in character, the Youth Congress draws its membership from all the parties, as well as from independents...

...To many outsiders, this Government appeared to be almost perfect: It was led by a "moderate," Balewa...

...Internally, the Action Group's Leftward trend, complicated by old local rivalries, has led to a recent party split...

...4. The Marxist Nigerian People's party may suddenly blossom forth as a serious challenger to the old and tired "bourgeois" parties...

...Also, Army grumbling about the incompetence and venality of civilian politicians cannot be taken lightly, since similar grievances have led to military take-overs in a number of newly independent countries...

...As is true of other West African states, Nigeria's urban unemployed are largely educated, though the country's size and its greater degree of urbanization exacerbates the problem...

...It originated among the Yorubas in the Western Region, but in the last few years it has made intensive efforts to become a national rather than ethnic party...

...Enough seats fell outside this pattern, however, to prevent the NPC from having an absolute majority...

...Akintola has since launched a new group, called the United People's party...

...This year, the NCNC formally forbade its members activity in the Congress...

...The NPC's concept of a president is probably on the Indian model, which would allow Azikiwe to exercise his present symbolic role with no added authority...

...Instead, Akintola wanted the AG to enter a national coalition with the NPC and NCNC, renounce its national aspirations and stop supporting the North's anti-emir political factions...

...Nigeria: Slow Road to Trouble By Immanuel Wallerstein There is a widespread belief that of all the newly independent African nations Nigeria is the outstanding example of a fairly stable, relatively pro-Western, liberal democracy...

...The Federal government is now officially committed to the principle, but there is no agreement on what kind of republic should be set up...

...Very few of the discontented have been willing to break away from the party, whose attraction is still strong...

...In such a case, any severe economic setback could lead to a major crisis...

...In 1959, each of the three major parties controlled one of the three regional legislatures...

...The group's program is radical pan-Africanism and its aim is to "keep the politicians itching...

...There are two labor federations in the country, both recently renamed: the United Labor Congress and the Independent United Labor Congress...

...But even before the recent "emergency," a number of developments indicated otherwise...

...Established in 1960, the Socialist Group is very close to the Youth Congress in ideology...

...The Federation of Nigeria is divided into regions in a lopsided manner...

...The NPC, being in principle a Northern party, will not readily surrender its regional focus...

...But others argue that he is merely consolidating his prestige, unchallenged throughout Nigeria for the first time, and that his followers will soon force him to return...

...The oldest was the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), led by Nnamdi Azikiwe and committed to a program of pan-tribal, pan-African radical nationalism...

...This belief is largely an illusion, nourished on superficial analysis and self-deception...