New Course for China and Burma:
LELYVELD, JOSEPH
Chou's recent visit created ties of cautious friendship New Course for China and Burma By Joseph Lelyveld Rangoon THOUGH the warm and lavish welcome Chinese Premier Chou En-lai received here...
...Chou's recent visit created ties of cautious friendship New Course for China and Burma By Joseph Lelyveld Rangoon THOUGH the warm and lavish welcome Chinese Premier Chou En-lai received here recently may not have "raised the edifice of SinoBurmese friendship" to the "new and lofty heights of glory and splendor" described by Burmese Prime Minister U Nu, it did at least mark the beginning of a new phase in the relations between the two countries...
...When the pact was approved, the Chinese insisted on linking it to a Treaty of Non-Aggression and Friendship that specifically barred Burma from joining alliances hostile to China...
...But this is incorrect...
...When the subject came up again in the final communique, nothing was said that could compromise Burma...
...The size of the loan—less than $15 million a year—· does not seem to warrant this anxiety, but its conditions do, for it is tied to a comprehensive technical assistance program...
...and, since the Chinese will set the prices on their services and equipment, the real value of the loan remains to be seen...
...With their new economic ties here and the new friendship pact, they have reason to hope they will be able to influence Burmese policies at critical moments, despite the proviso in the communique that declares the loan has been granted "without any privileges and political conditions attached...
...But China has the makings of a nice squeeze play here...
...For the present the vaunted SinoBurmese friendship is a friendship of convenience...
...The Chinese technicians and equipment have been excellent, Sino-Burmese trade has gone well and the Burmese have bought a lot of textiles, small machinery and hardware—all cheaply...
...Colonialism was deplored, but it was "colonialism in any form,' and the statement on Laos said only that it ought to be kept free from "any outside interference or pressure...
...The Chinese, for their part, have established a good position in Burma and are taking a wait-and-see attitude, apparently on the assumption that Burmese political life is more likely to disintegrate by itself than it would under the pressure of hostile threats from across the border...
...Chou En-lai capped his visit on its last day by extending a six-year loan of $85 million without interest...
...The Burmese, who are fond of fables in which small animals outsmart big ones, are operating on the assumption that they will be able to avoid any dangerous Chinese moves...
...Thus it appears that the Burmese will get little, if any, of the pounds sterling that defined the size of the loan...
...The Burmese are quite prepared, as the communique says, to resist "colonialism in any form...
...The same sort of reasoning must have had something to do with the welcome the Burmese gave Chou, the theory being that the more they celebrated their good relations the harder it would be for China to upset them...
...To some it seems that U Nu has now gone further and turned Burmese policy on its head by rushing to embrace the Chinese on the theory that only good neighbors make good fences...
...But the sweet talk with which U Nu smothered his guest ought to be qualified by some equally expressive remarks he made on other occasions...
...There is no indication, however, that the balance can be made up in currency...
...Ministry of Trade officials here say the contract specifies that the rice will be put to domestic use...
...It has been rumored here that the Chinese are planning to sell rice to Ceylon in a three-way trade at cut-rate prices for rubber, thereby underselling the Burmese in their own market with their own rice as the Russians did several years ago...
...When Chou, for example, spoke about "aggressive acts" of "imperialists" against Laos and the need for "solidarity" among the "peace-loving" nations, U Nu blandly ignored the hint and remained silent...
...the Burmese will maintain them at a standard of living specified in the pact as being no higher than that of "personnel of the same rank in the Union of Burma...
...With the exception of these maintenance allowances, the Chinese will meet all the costs of the projects and charge them against the credits created by the loan...
...If this was the General's trump card, he played it well...
...The border pact has increased their stability in one way and they are hoping that the aid they get from China, as well as the West, will help to stabilize things even more...
...Whether or not China will continue to be a market for Burmese rice in the future remains to be seen...
...But he hoped a fixed line on paper would at least help to secure the frontier against the kind of incursions that occurred here in 1956 and that India is now facing in Ladakh and around Longju...
...The Chinese will pay the costs of transporting their people and pay their salaries...
...The flow of warm words helped to obscure the cool political judgments that lay behind the organized rejoicings...
...Under the agreement, China will send equipment and experts to Burma and Burmese technicians will be trained in China...
...Chou addressed his audiences as "paukphaws," a Burmese word that means, roughly, cousins...
...The atmosphere of friendship gives them room to maneuver...
...But they must have thought it a good gamble, calculating that the Chinese would not put the screws on so long as they were profiting by the good publicity they get out of their "fraternal friendship" with Burma...
...the payments will be either in Burmese exports or the "currency of a third country agreed upon by China...
...However differently they may estimate the country's future, the two sides seem to agree that, for the time being at least, it remains in the hands of the Burmese...
...Burmese experiences with aid from China, which has been small until now, has been good...
...for instance, just before he went to China last October to sign the border agreement he said that Communists reminded him of "flies swarming around smelly things...
...U Nu was quite blunt about this last October...
...The Chinese say they are helping Burma to enable it to resist the "colonialists...
...this is certainly believable, considering the famine conditions in China...
...At any rate, the Burmese were pleased to have the bargains...
...During the one-week visit, the two premiers vied with one another to see which one could be more effusive in his protestations of aFfeCtion for the other...
...The Chinese also will export goods to Burma "to generate Burmese currency required for construction of agreed projects...
...The General's approach succeeded because it came at a time when China found it useful both to give evidence of its professed dedication to "peaceful coexistence" with its neighbors to the South and to prevent Burma from tying itself too closely to the West...
...This year the balance of trade will shift in Burma's favor, now that China has placed a firm order to buy 350,000 tons of rice at a good price...
...China bought no rice last year and Burma sold less than two million tons altogether, so the present order is a great boon...
...The Chinese strategy is fairly clear...
...During the recent visit there were many indications that U Nu was well aware of the stakes...
...The Burmese will not start repaying until 1971 and they will have 10 years to remove the debt...
...With their appetite for industrialization, the Chinese leaders are not likely to continue to make such non-capital purchases any longer than necessary...
...The loan has stirred some anxiety as to whether Burma is allowing itself to become a part of the Chinese "sphere of influence...
...When General Ne Win, during the last months of his caretaker government in 1959, managed to persuade the Chinese to settle the border dispute, he knew that Burma could never guarantee its border by force...
...The Burmese recognize the dangers involved in closer relations with China, but think they will gain economically and politically...
...The repayment provisions appeared at first glance to be extremely easy...
...The Communists can, if they want, set exorbitant prices on their goods and services and then turn around and demand $3.5 million a year from Burma for a period of 10 years...
...The jargon was almost the same, but its edge had been smoothed away...
...The reason for the low prices is probably political and perhaps the Chinese need the foreign exchange...
...The Burmese knew this when they signed the pact...
...Joseph Lelyveld, a Fulbright scholar, is studying Burma's political scene...
...If the loan is not used up before it expires, it can be extended...
...If you don't want Burma to be a Communist country," he told the Parliament, "take aid...
...U Nu spoke of the "kinsmen-like" and "fraternal" friendship between the two countries...
Vol. 44 • January 1961 • No. 5
